2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 LA Lakers vs #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (MIN leads 1-0)

[Ethomasp31]

The Wolves shot 50% from 3 in game 1 yesterday and of course, won. Last season the only game the Wolves managed to win against Luka and his team in the playoffs was the game in which the Wolves shot 40%+ from 3.

Based off that strictly, if the Wolves want to win this series against Luka, they will need to have more 40%+ shooting games from 3. Otherwise Luka and his team will beat the Wolves in 5 once again.

Fortunately we aren't playing the 2024 Mavs. That Mavs team was actually, you know a good team with rim protection of Gafford and Lively. Also, Kyrie was significantly better than the 2nd best player on this Lakers team.

Unfortunately for you the Wolves won't have KAT, a career 40% 3point shooter, going 3/22 like he did in games 1-3 of the WCF. Also, unfortunate for the Lakers is that this is the series ANT wanted.

I'm salivating at then thought that if we beat the Lakers then in the last two years Ant will have sent Booker, KD, Jokic, LeBron and Luka packing from the play offs.

Talk about a resume builder!

Two years ago I remember ANT running off the court after the game 5 loss to the Nuggets and kind of throwing down a chair. We played the Nuggets super tough that year but they were champions and were just better.

Last year heading into the playoffs we were a better team than we are this year, although this years team does have different strengths and has DDV instead of SloMo. That isn't meant to be a slam of SloMo as I loved him and what he brought to the Wolves, it's just that DDV can be very explosive. This years team has been awful at closing out close games down the stretch, or we would have been the 2 seed. Back to my point about the Nuggets. I felt last year heading into that Nuggets series that ANT wasn't going to let the Wolves lose to them again. Now we lost focus in that series, and that Nuggets team was incredibly good, but we overcame it and we ended up winning a very emotionally, mentally and physically draining series.

We headed into the Dallas series drained. The Mavs were way better than I expected, and it didn't help that KAT was 3/22 in the first three games of the series despite the fact he is a career 40% 3point shooter. We lost and Luka kinda punked us.

ANT remembers this. He is fresh and is going to have that special bounce in his step you see when he gets up for big games. People who have watched a lot of Wolves games probably know what I mean when I say that. This is the series ANT wanted. He feels disrespected by the talk of the LAL having the two best players in the series. He feels disrespected that no one thinks they will win this series. He feels disrespected that the Wolves are being brushed off. He remembers the series against Luka last year and being outplayed by both Luka and Kyrie. I think ANT wants to make a statement and I have a feeling that the closeout game is going to be iconic.

BTW, I also think the two days off between games is going to help him as much as it helps anyone in this series.

[shrink]

Some of my favorite Laker fan declarations this week:

1. MIN can’t pass the ball! Double team Ant and he melts down: Ant had 9 AST and 1 TO. Luka has 1 AST, 5 TO.

2. LAL has three guys that score 20 or more! MIN only has one! Actually, MIN had three guys score 20, LAL had one.

3. LAL has an All Time Big Three, with Luka, LeBron and Reeves.

4. LAL would have a better record, if they tried.

[Ethomasp31]

I just read through some of it dude, Bob, you’re hilarious. I wish you’d keep it up. Every post, you’re like “Actually LALwill steamroll the T Wolves, here’s why” for three paragraphs. Too funny just driving wolves fans bonkers

Vast majority of my posts were about Gobert being non factor and nobody stopping Luka. 100% correct, what I didn't expect is LeBron and AR couldn't create anything without Luka. If that continues Lakers can't win.

A win is a win, but if I’m Minnesota, I treat this like a loss. Lakers really figured something out putting Doncic on Edwards. That’s one of those somewhat small adjustments that can win a series.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

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God I can't imagine how worn out Luka would be if he had to try and guard ANT for a full game.

[DreamTeam09]

One thing that'll piss Lebron off is a 7ft lurking at the rim
One thing Luka loves is a 7ft at the 3pt the line
One thing Luka hates is defense
One thing Lebron hates is being accountable defensively for 48mins

All these things will be tested

[TimberKat]

Where is that guy that replayed on every comment for first 50 pages?

Bob was banned for posting too much. No interest whatsoever to be bullied by mods. Enjoy.

Now we have one game sample of the series. So far we see: Luka was great, Gobert didn't do much, Luka can't defend anyone besides Gobert, JMcD is better than Reaves, Lakers have no interior defense, LBJ can't shoot 3s, Twolves is an above avg 3 pt shooting team.

Is it still Luka is going to win it for Lakers and TWolves has no chance? What adjustments can Lakers make that Twolves cannot counter other than Luka is going to score 60 pts the next game?

[shrink]

Minny shot 51% from 3 with 21 made 3's. Every team in the league would lose to that type of hot shooting.

Unless a team has a really poor shooting night, it always shoots as well as its opponents allow them. It is not some luck that they made 51% of their shots.

Nah, modern NBA sets create open shots. Obviously one team can decide to be ultra-agressive and run off three point shooters, but with today's ball handling skill, if you over commit, then they will just attack the paint on those closeouts very successfully. All this means that shooting luck will play a huge part in every game, and it is indeed very hard to beat teams in the playoffs that make 20 or more threes on 45+%. It's easy to say "you can defend it better", that's not really how it works in today's league.

I think you’re coming to the wrong conclusion here.

Three point percentage for wide open three’s is always going to be much higher than for contested threes. Laker role players are forced to overplay, to cover for the defensive weaknesses of their stars. Even if LAL had the length and athleticism to do that and rush out and contest threes, the Lakers don’t have any deterrence left for MIN to attack the close outs and drive to the rim, or drive and kick out to another open three point shooter.

Yes, 51% shooting is tough to beat, but only part of this is about MIN having a lucky night, it’s also based on LAL making MIN’s three’s easier than league average.

[Ethomasp31]

Some of my favorite Laker fan declarations this week:

1. MIN can’t pass the ball! Double team Ant and he melts down: Ant had 9 AST and 1 TO. Luka has 1 AST, 5 TO.

2. LAL has three guys that score 20 or more! MIN only has one! Actually, MIN had three guys score 20, LAL had 1.

3. LAL has an All Time Big Three, with Luka, LeBron and Reeves.

4. LAL would have a better record, if they tried.

The Timberwolves downfall this year will be their inability to closeout close games in the last few minutes of games. I just don't think it will happen in this series...or the next one either.

[Wolfgang630]

Gobert played 24 minutes. A good plan for him to be on lower minutes especially with how Naz Reid plays

[Bob8]

Bob was banned for posting too much. No interest whatsoever to be bullied by mods. Enjoy.

Now we have one game sample of the series. So far we see: Luka was great, Gobert didn't do much, Luka can't defend anyone besides Gobert, JMcD is better than Reaves, Lakers have no interior defense, LBJ can't shoot 3s, Twolves is an above avg 3 pt shooting team.

Is it still Luka is going to win it for Lakers and TWolves has no chance? What adjustments can Lakers make that Twolves cannot counter other than Luka is going to score 60 pts the next game?

Like Lakers are built, they have to score 115+ to win games. To do that, LeBron and AR will need to be a lot better and role players will need to show something. I agree with you, if they can't, Luka can't win series alone.

Lakers biggest problem was not D, they can player better in D, but their main problem in game 1 was offense outside Luka. Expectations for LeBron is a lot more than inefficient shooting. He needs to create something too. The same goes for AR. If they can't the series is over.

[Ethomasp31]

Gobert played 24 minutes. A good plan for him to be on lower minutes especially with how Naz Reid plays

Naz had a great game last night...but if you look at his 10 game splits through the season he can be really up and down. He actually came into the playoffs not playing very well...same with JMD. In games 30-50 Naz shot well over 50% from 3. For the rest of the year he was in the low 30's.

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629675/traditional?Split=lastn&SeasonType=Regular+Season


The Wolves have a lot of ways to beat you besides the obvious one. Last night it was Naz and JMD. Tuesday it could be Rudy and DDV. Friday it might be Randle, Conley and NAW. JMD is so important because he plays such good defense.

[Shaka_Zulu]

Vast majority of my posts were about Gobert being non factor and nobody stopping Luka. 100% correct, what I didn't expect is LeBron and AR couldn't create anything without Luka. If that continues Lakers can't win.

A win is a win, but if I’m Minnesota, I treat this like a loss. Lakers really figured something out putting Doncic on Edwards. That’s one of those somewhat small adjustments that can win a series.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

?t=_qYooglA4wmsrqtYyF82Aw&s=19

God I can't imagine how worn out Luka would be if he had to try and guard ANT for a full game.

Open the spoiler tag on the post you quoted




But yeah seriously every time Ant or other Wolves ball handlers purposely switched on Luka, the lakers just let that switch remain. Cuz Reaves was **** on perimeter, as was Rui, Gabe too small, Bron zero effort off ball, besides couple early steals and a block.


Literally no one was even average on 1v1 defending besides DFS and Vando. So on any average play Lakers didn't even bother pre switching and avoiding the Luka targeting because most others were weak points too.


This is despite taking 20 mins for any of them to get fouls called on them.


JJ really have to rethink his defensive schemes around this personnel.

[HardenGoat]

Even a light cut back in favorable whistles is going to impact a team so reliant on that. Wolves will need to keep the threes falling cause that cut back is officially gone now.

[hauntedcomputer]

Still confused over whether JJ is the Xs and Os genius who didn't get his game plan ready for this one or if he is the Xs and Os genius who will adjust and take the next four.

More likely the guy who will sound smart about Xs and Os on his podcast after Lakers are eliminated next week/

[TheNG]

I don't think the Lakers should worry about this game.
It is known that they usually lose game 1, and only then they "figure out" the rivals,

Spoiler:

and then lose the series.

[Tukkerwolf]

Funny that people keep repeating that Reid had a hot 3pt shooting night, while he literally shot his average against the Lakers of the last couple of years...

22/23 - 1 game 3/6 3pt
23/24 - 4 games 16/29
24/25 - 5 games 12/25

Total last three seasons: 31/60

So it is to be expected for Naz to shoot around 50% from 3 against the Lakers.

[cupcakesnake]

Don't think you can defend when a team is this hot from 3

Yea, but the reason Wolves were hot from 3 is because those were mostly non-contested open 3s from the corner, something Lakers for some reason gave them. It's what I would expect from most of teams to shoot as open C&S - high volume, high %.
Respect for Wolves coaches for preparing the team for this Lakers zone D.
If Lakers don't adjust their D, they are in trouble.
I'm not a huge X&O guy, so if anyone has a good video on Lakers D breakdown, pls share with the room

The Wolves shot 50% from 3 in game 1 yesterday and of course, won. Last season the only game the Wolves managed to win against Luka and his team in the playoffs was the game in which the Wolves shot 40%+ from 3.

Based off that strictly, if the Wolves want to win this series against Luka, they will need to have more 40%+ shooting games from 3. Otherwise Luka and his team will beat the Wolves in 5 once again.

Yes the Wolves could easily have a cold shooting night, but it's really important to acknowledge that the Lakers defense gave up open 3s as they concentrated on protecting the paint. This wasn't just a hot shooting night, this was a defensive failure by the Lakers. The Wolves could have shot worse from 3 and still won this game.

You can't choose to surrender open 3s (by design) and then call it bad luck when a team makes it rain. JJ Redick has shown interested in opponent shooting reluctance. I think he talked about it on a pod before he was a coach. Some teams and/or players, even with skilled shooting, get gun shy when you give them a ton of open looks, especially if the team/player prefers to attack the paint. This is a weakness that Dallas exploited against OKC last year, and then also against Towns specifically (despite Towns shooting ability, the man really prefers to drive). 2025 Minnesota though, is not a gun shy team. This team, even our meh shooters, have been instructed to let in fly every time they're left open. We were top 5 in attempts.

The Lakers took a risk (I think a bad risk) and paid the price. They could choose to take the same risk again in game 2, and the Wolves could shoot bad and it could work better, but it's a pretty high cost risk.

Obviously the Lakers playing better on defense than they did last night, but the defensive holes are real, and I've long said I don't think the Lakers can defend the paint and the 3-ball at the same time. Where the Lakers can and will improve is on offense. The Lakers are more than capable of putting up a 120+ offensive rating on us. Last night, the Wolves let Luka attack as a scorer, and refused to surrender 3s. I begged the Wolves to do this last year, to stop letting Luka generate lobs and corner 3s, and let him cook Gobert in iso 20 times per game if need be. All the Lakers got last night was Luka halfcourt scoring, and some Lebron transition scoring. Really good game plan that the Lakers could not shake. They will shake it though, because they're too talented and have too much shooting. The Wolves are good defensively, but we're not without holes ourselves.

The size disparity wont go away though. The Lakers spent almost the whole game with a frontcourt that measures 6'6" (DFS), 6'7" (Luka), and 6'8" (Lebron). DFS and Lebron are long armed but not freakishly so. The Wolves frontcourt is 6'8" (Randle), 6'9" (Jaden), and 7'1" (Gobert). Our shortest frontcourt player is as big as the Lakers biggest one for most of the game. The Lakers have a 6'10" guy they used for 8 minutes and gave up.

[kazyv]

Even a light cut back in favorable whistles is going to impact a team so reliant on that. Wolves will need to keep the threes falling cause that cut back is officially gone now.

Meh, the refs only ever really matter if the teams are closely matched. I'm sure the Lakers will get a favorable whistle at home down 0-1, but that can only ever get you so far. The Lakers gave no indication at all that they can hang with the wolves

[tamaraw08]

Twolves 8th best in ORTG, with 4th best in 3pt% and they failed to guard the 3pt spots as if Naz Reid hasn’t killed them before.
I thought playing Hayes in limited minutes was supposed to be more quick on perimeter close outs.
Lebron has the worst stats after 3 days rest both this season and career.

[mademan]

Read on Twitter

Im not an NBA historian, so someone else will have to speak on this, but this has to be some kind of record, no? 42 open or wide open three point shots in a single playoff game. Not 1 shot seriously contested?

[sikma42]

Read on Twitter

Im not an NBA historian, so someone else will have to speak on this, but this has to be some kind of record, no? 42 open or wide open three point shots in a single playoff game. Not 1 shot seriously contested?

Gotta turn up the physicality. I will saw I think I remember some well contested misses. In particular NAW


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