Is the Lottery Rigged?

[manlisten]

after 60years, if it was rigged someone would have exposed it by now

but it's fun to talk about

In 2011, the CIA declassified documents that had been kept secret since 1917. They have over 20,000 employees. Where does this notion come from that the public is privy to all information that exists?

[Memories]

I've said this before. I think some picks are rigged in advance, and I think some picks are random. These franchise-altering #1 picks are simply too valuable to allow their allocation to be left purely to chance. At the same time, the league can say, "Lottery picks are left to chance," and they'd be correct, as technically many of them are.

The Pelicans getting Zion Williamson to rebuild with after imploding with the Anthony Davis trade demand and suspension, while the Lakers concurrently move up to get a #4 pick they can use to complete the Anthony Davis trade, is just too wonderful a coincidence for the league and both franchises involved. It stabilized the Pelicans franchise and pushed Lebron and the Lakers into contention. The mathematical probability of both these events occurring was miniscule.

Also, I remember Kyrie Irving's dad was quoted as saying that Kyrie was going to "run the show up in Cleveland" before that draft lottery.

If the NBA was fixing the lottery in 2019 they would have fixed it for NY. Metro NY has 20x the population of Metro New Orleans. A winner in NYC would be far, far more valuable than a winner in New Orleans.

New Orleans winning the lottery with Zion is a data point in favor of the lottery not being fixed.

Disagree. New Orleans winning the lottery in 2019 was compensation for sending Anthony Davis to the Lakers. Sending AD to play with Lebron in LA was a higher priority than giving Zion to the Knicks.

Not only that, but the NBA doesn’t need to do anything with big market teams like the Knicks, Lakers, Heat, etc. They make the league money just by existing. There is no need to try and rig anything for them.

But the Pelicans? Do you have any idea how long the NBA has been trying to make that team a relevant basketball city? Dude, they have been trying HARD since the “basketball reasons” veto and then rewarding the Pelicans the number 1 pick after CP3 was traded that landed them AD.

Once again, the Pelicans are in the lottery, and now they are in a position to trade yet another former number 1 pick, so that they can once again, get a number 1 pick to draft a generational prospect again (who will in a handful of years, be traded anyway because their front office is incompetent, but the NBA will keep trying anyway).

Pelicans, Utah or Dallas getting the number 1 pick would only confirm this.

[Lalouie]

after 60years, if it was rigged someone would have exposed it by now

but it's fun to talk about

In 2011, the CIA declassified documents that had been kept secret since 1917. They have over 20,000 employees. Where does this notion come from that the public is privy to all information that exists?

well i would think the cia held unchecked for 100yrs, if someone of the 20kemployees snitched,,,,HE WOULD BE DEAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK

[og15]

after 60years, if it was rigged someone would have exposed it by now

but it's fun to talk about

In 2011, the CIA declassified documents that had been kept secret since 1917. They have over 20,000 employees. Where does this notion come from that the public is privy to all information that exists?

The CIA and the NBA of course have very different levels of clearance and have different abilities to keep information classified, not a very helpful comparison. I think that is quite obvious though, since we're talking about a countries secret intelligence agency vs a sports organization. Now the NBA in a very tight circle of people of course could keep certain things hidden, but the draft has too many touch points that it falls out of the realm of that kind of situation.

This is one of the main issues we run into though. If we start to scrutinize our theories, it ends up being some conclusion like this, that the NBA is like something like the CIA, or that the NBA is basically some world power who can silence many other powerful people, or that the NBA is like the Mafia, all these kinds of conclusions.

....then the next issue is not even that no one involved has directly come out to say anything, it's that there hasn't even been an anonymous report, or a "sources" report, or any hint like that. That is, despite all the people who would have had to be involved over the years and who would be in and out of the NBA ecosystem. That's just not possible, again, unless we go back to the Mafia NBA, type stuff, and even the Mafia and world powers and all these guys get leaks.

I've said this before. I think some picks are rigged in advance, and I think some picks are random. These franchise-altering #1 picks are simply too valuable to allow their allocation to be left purely to chance. At the same time, the league can say, "Lottery picks are left to chance," and they'd be correct, as technically many of them are.

The Pelicans getting Zion Williamson to rebuild with after imploding with the Anthony Davis trade demand and suspension, while the Lakers concurrently move up to get a #4 pick they can use to complete the Anthony Davis trade, is just too wonderful a coincidence for the league and both franchises involved. It stabilized the Pelicans franchise and pushed Lebron and the Lakers into contention. The mathematical probability of both these events occurring was miniscule.

Also, I remember Kyrie Irving's dad was quoted as saying that Kyrie was going to "run the show up in Cleveland" before that draft lottery.

If the NBA was fixing the lottery in 2019 they would have fixed it for NY. Metro NY has 20x the population of Metro New Orleans. A winner in NYC would be far, far more valuable than a winner in New Orleans.

New Orleans winning the lottery with Zion is a data point in favor of the lottery not being fixed.

Disagree. New Orleans winning the lottery in 2019 was compensation for sending Anthony Davis to the Lakers. Sending AD to play with Lebron in LA was a higher priority than giving Zion to the Knicks.

Kyrie's dad I remember said the Cavs would take Kyrie #1 after they got the pick. I don't remember any mention that he predicted who would win the draft though, those are very different things.

The NBA draft interference theories including the Zion one sounds nice, but the reasonings just end up making it similar to random, which you can just achieve by doing nothing. The NBA's purpose in rigging drafts seems to just shift on every new whim they have, kind of pointless. One time it is to get a star in a big market, then it is hometown, then it is to reward teams that lost a star.

Why do they need to compensate a team that lost a star though? Of course people will say because the NBA "made" New Orleans send AD to LA to help Lebron, but that argument for that is not even a good. Of course all the NBA forcing players to LA arguments don't work so well because players have been pushing themselves to LA long before any of the rigging people would say anything was going on.

Again guys, remember that the ONE and ONLY time the NBA actually had direct control on the decision for the trade destination of a superstar, the trade to the Lakers was blocked by the NBA.

That's just a direct refutation of the idea that, the NBA is then behind the scenes forcing all these players to LA, let alone the people who even go as far as to say all the owners are also in on it because it benefits them in whole league profitability, and that they have sit downs to explain to them how it all works.

All this is supposed to be true, yet the ONE time where it was actually put to the test whether it is true, the league did not allow it, and part of that being because other owners complained immediately, but supposedly all these other owners according to some are supposed to be in on any rigging that is for the benefit of the league. It doesn't make sense.

Of course I understand that if one is committed to the rigging conclusion already, that the league declining that trade was actually also all part of the master plan so they could throw everyone off the scent, but then if everything just becomes argued as part of the plan, there's no real discussion to be had.

The big picture argument people have for rigging is that the NBA's aim is money, money corrups and these things would be done for profitability. That is a good argument basis, because money is a great corrupting factor.

If their aim is money, profitability and progress of the league, they don't do a great job. Zion to New Orleans in order to "compensate" the owners because they traded Davis who they had for many years and couldn't build a winner around him is just stupid if that's your aim. If their aim is profitability, but most of the instances they are rigging are for storylines that are not about maximum profitability, then what's the point? Why am I risking rigging then?

[amcoolio]

It's probably not rigged, but some teams are just incredibly lucky (Cleveland, New Orleans, San Antonio) while some teams have horrific luck (Charlotte, Washington, Detroit)

NBA will probably never solve this "some teams are just luckier than others" based system

[SkyBill40]

It's definitely not rigged. I also think if they were to rig it, they'd be clever about it. It wouldn't be Cleveland winning the lottery the year of LeBron. It would be a team moving up from 11 to 2 because no one is focusing on the 2nd pick.

All those years of Shaq, LBJ, and Duncan are exceptions which NBA didn't rigg. They only rigg once a while . What is funny about all this too is that the biggest NBA superstars these days don't come from the #1 pick. Jokic, Luka, Giannis, Tatum, KD, SGA, etc.

All that shows is that the draft, and talent evaluation in general, is just as big a crap shoot as it always has been. Nothing is absolutely guaranteed simply by being the first overall pick.

Sent from my SM-F936U using RealGM mobile app

[Catchall]

See if the league allows OKC to add another #7 or #8 pick (e.g., Knueppel, Fears, etc.) to what they currently have.

[TimberKat]

See if the league allows OKC to add another #7 or #8 pick (e.g., Knueppel, Fears, etc.) to what they currently have.

What is that even mean? OKC is not in the lottery. They pick 15 and 25. Even if they have, they may prefer to trade it as they don't really have roster spot to develop any players. Are you trying to trick yourself into a conspiracy again?

[Catchall]

See if the league allows OKC to add another #7 or #8 pick (e.g., Knueppel, Fears, etc.) to what they currently have.

What is that even mean? OKC is not in the lottery. They pick 15 and 25. Even if they have, they may prefer to trade it as they don't really have roster spot to develop any players. Are you trying to trick yourself into a conspiracy again?

If the Sixers' pick falls out of the top 6, it goes to OKC. It's a leftover protected pick from the Al Horford trade.

[og15]

See if the league allows OKC to add another #7 or #8 pick (e.g., Knueppel, Fears, etc.) to what they currently have.

What is that even mean? OKC is not in the lottery. They pick 15 and 25. Even if they have, they may prefer to trade it as they don't really have roster spot to develop any players. Are you trying to trick yourself into a conspiracy again?

If the Sixers' pick falls out of the top 6, it goes to OKC. It's a leftover protected pick from the Al Horford trade.

There's a 36% chance that Philly falls out of top 6, the same chance the average 3PT shot attempt has of going in. What exactly is interesting about that?

[PhilBlackson]

It has to be at least on occasion....Ewing to NY, LeBron to CLE, Wemby to SAS, all feel just a little too *ahem convenient.

[TimberKat]

What is that even mean? OKC is not in the lottery. They pick 15 and 25. Even if they have, they may prefer to trade it as they don't really have roster spot to develop any players. Are you trying to trick yourself into a conspiracy again?

If the Sixers' pick falls out of the top 6, it goes to OKC. It's a leftover protected pick from the Al Horford trade.

There's a 36% chance that Philly falls out of top 6, the same chance the average 3PT shot attempt has of going in. What exactly is interesting about that?

No wonder 76ers trying so hard to tank. There is 64% chance it will be higher than 7, so if the likely outcome happens, than it's a conspiracy?

[LordCovington33]

All this noise and yet no explanation about how it’s fixed.

[og15]

If the Sixers' pick falls out of the top 6, it goes to OKC. It's a leftover protected pick from the Al Horford trade.

There's a 36% chance that Philly falls out of top 6, the same chance the average 3PT shot attempt has of going in. What exactly is interesting about that?

No wonder 76ers trying so hard to tank. There is 64% chance it will be higher than 7, so if the likely outcome happens, than it's a conspiracy?

I don't know, I'm not really sure what the citing of the Philly pick as it relates to OKC was supposed to indicate in regards to a conspiracy.

[NZB2323]

Why do the Lakers keep getting superstars throughout history?

Clippers play in LA and their history is the complete opposite.

Big markets play a huge role in the business of the NBA. The league needs their big markets to be successful.

The lottery are usually bad teams. It's kind of hard to pick good markets for stars considering the teams picking are generally small market teams.

If I'm a betting man I think Flagg ends up in Chicago or Brooklyn.

The Clippers had the 1st pick 3 times. The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers have won the lottery the most times and those teams aren’t in big markets.

[NZB2323]

It has to be at least on occasion....Ewing to NY, LeBron to CLE, Wemby to SAS, all feel just a little too *ahem convenient.

How is Wemby to SAS good for the league? They’re not a big market. The Cavs were the worst team in 2003 and had the best lottery odds. It’s too convenient that the team with the best odds won the lottery?

The Cavs and Magic have won the draft lottery the most. There isn’t some league wide conspiracy to help the Magic and Cavs get stars.

[TimberKat]

I read all kinds of crazy theories about Ewing to New York but most people either don't know or don't remember the draft(including myself). There is only 7 teams in the lottery. They have equal chances of one envelope each. So New York, GSW, LAC, and Atlanta were in the lottery. I could write a conspiracy theory for each. Actually, I could also write one for Pacers too. They shouldn't win it, the league must give it to them to help a dying franchise stay afloat. So doesn't matter who wins we will have a conspiracy theory to cover it. What is the point to rigg it? Is Chris Mullin going to NYK considered conspiracy too?

[Curmudgeon]

The NBA needs a secondary league so they can use relegation, like soccer. That would put an end to the lottery and tanking. The two teams with the two worst records in each conference have to drop into the secondary league for the next season, and forfeit their draft picks. The four teams with the best records in the secondary league get to play in the NBA for the following season.

The G-league would work if the franchises were independent, as opposed to being NBA farm teams.

[TimberKat]

It has to be at least on occasion....Ewing to NY, LeBron to CLE, Wemby to SAS, all feel just a little too *ahem convenient.

How is Wemby to SAS good for the league? They’re not a big market. The Cavs were the worst team in 2003 and had the best lottery odds. It’s too convenient that the team with the best odds won the lottery?

The Cavs and Magic have won the draft lottery the most. There isn’t some league wide conspiracy to help the Magic and Cavs get stars.

Yes, in addition we have NBA lottery since 1985. If all chances are equal, out of 39 times, shouldn't we get a few that falls the "convenient" way? If not LeBron to Cleveland, How about Towns to New York, Zion to New York, Anthony Davis to GSW, Yao Ming to Chicago or GSW, Tim Duncan to BOS, Shaq to Dallas or Washington, AI to BOS or LAC, LBJ to NYK or CHI, Ewing to GSW or LAC, Robinson to Suns, LAC, or CHI?

Basically, if you go down the rabbit hole, you will find anything by chance looks like a conspiracy or miracle. Why is Joe Smith at Convenient Store 711 won the lottery when he just loss his job a week ago, his wife left him, and his son just diagnosed with cancer. Isn't it a little too convenient? Nevermind that there is a lottery drawing every week and millions buy them and one of those winners will sure have an amazing story.

[knicksfan974]

It has to be at least on occasion....Ewing to NY, LeBron to CLE, Wemby to SAS, all feel just a little too *ahem convenient.

How is Wemby to SAS good for the league? They’re not a big market. The Cavs were the worst team in 2003 and had the best lottery odds. It’s too convenient that the team with the best odds won the lottery?

The Cavs and Magic have won the draft lottery the most. There isn’t some league wide conspiracy to help the Magic and Cavs get stars.

The league will find a way to move Wemby to a major market. He is such a special player there is no way they "waste" this incredible marketing opportunity. Wemby to NYK.