Image ImageImage Image

The Bulls should go all in for Zion

Moderators: HomoSapien, dougthonus, Michael Jackson, Tommy Udo 6 , kulaz3000, fleet, DASMACKDOWN, GimmeDat, RedBulls23, AshyLarrysDiaper, coldfish, Payt10, Ice Man

Indomitable
RealGM
Posts: 25,383
And1: 6,383
Joined: Jul 11, 2001
Location: Yelzenbah!
     

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#101 » by Indomitable » Mon Apr 21, 2025 2:18 pm

Zion is a cancer and lacks any discipline
:banghead:
User avatar
Jcool0
RealGM
Posts: 15,282
And1: 9,274
Joined: Jul 12, 2014
Location: Illinois
         

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#102 » by Jcool0 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 2:52 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:Seems like most people in here are giving Zion like 10% chance to play more than 50 games. Average games per year sucks as a stat because some injuries are way longer than others. He missed one entire season, throws the curve. In two of his six seasons, Zion has played 61 and 70 games. The 70 was just last year. 33% of his seasons he's played over 60 games. He's lighter and older now while still being early 20's, presumably smarter. Shouldn't his odds be at least 33% or more he plays 60+ next season?

Over the last two seasons he's averaged 50 games for instance. He's at least 20 lbs lighter than he was three years ago. His injuries are not chronic and most appear to be weight related. If he keeps the pounds off, he should be heathier at the very least. His last injury was a back contusion from falling on that hard floor, couldn't that happen to anyone? No matter what size, if they're a high flyer? Do those missed games add to his injury proneness? It was a contact injury.

In a sense, I guess his style of play will lead to more injuries, the same as for any player that frequently attacks the basket and gets fouled, rather than taking mostly jump shots. But that risk comes with any attacker.


Are you a pro in advertising? :lol: He literally just finished a season with 30 games. I mean, yes, the average of 70 and 30 is 50, but that’s a funny cherry to pick. He’s averaged 32 games in the last 4 years.

10%? I’d say anything below 75% odds of a decent healthy run (50+ games and playoffs to be lenient) is a huge risk for 3Y of guaranteed max you’re trading assets for. It’s a triple-whammy. Big cap hold, spending costly assets, and watching the guy hit the injured list atleast once a year.


Do we know Zion was shut down because the injury or because they wanted to lose the rest of there games?
Infinity2152
Veteran
Posts: 2,606
And1: 948
Joined: Jul 19, 2023
       

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#103 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 2:58 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:Seems like most people in here are giving Zion like 10% chance to play more than 50 games. Average games per year sucks as a stat because some injuries are way longer than others. He missed one entire season, throws the curve. In two of his six seasons, Zion has played 61 and 70 games. The 70 was just last year. 33% of his seasons he's played over 60 games. He's lighter and older now while still being early 20's, presumably smarter. Shouldn't his odds be at least 33% or more he plays 60+ next season?

Over the last two seasons he's averaged 50 games for instance. He's at least 20 lbs lighter than he was three years ago. His injuries are not chronic and most appear to be weight related. If he keeps the pounds off, he should be heathier at the very least. His last injury was a back contusion from falling on that hard floor, couldn't that happen to anyone? No matter what size, if they're a high flyer? Do those missed games add to his injury proneness? It was a contact injury.

In a sense, I guess his style of play will lead to more injuries, the same as for any player that frequently attacks the basket and gets fouled, rather than taking mostly jump shots. But that risk comes with any attacker.


Are you a pro in advertising? :lol: He literally just finished a season with 30 games. I mean, yes, the average of 70 and 30 is 50, but that’s a funny cherry to pick. He’s averaged 32 games in the last 4 years.

10%? I’d say anything below 75% odds of a decent healthy run (50+ games and playoffs to be lenient) is a huge risk for 3Y of guaranteed max you’re trading assets for. It’s a triple-whammy. Big cap hold, spending costly assets, and watching the guy hit the injured list atleast once a year.


Again, I try to make a simple point and instead of just taking a second to see the point, time to ridicule it. If you play 24 games 1 season, 0 games one season, 61 games 1 season, 29games 1 season, 70 games one season, 30 one season, in only one did you even come close to the 36 games he averages. And were still off by 20%. In no season has he averaged anywhere near the number of games people are using as his baseline.

You talk about cherry picking, that was an example of how this works. Student gets 100 on three papers and a 0 on the fourth paper because he missed the whole test. Is he now a 75, or C, student? Is he likely to get a 75 on the next test? One zero in a group of 6 ranging from 0-82 will throw the average completely off. Unless these injuries are related or because of some physical reason that has not been stated, predicting injuries based on history is just guessing. Saying he's going to get hurt because he always gets hurt, not because of lack of meniscus, or weak bones, or weight which is the usual reason given. Then when he loses the weight, the usually attributed cause, he's still just as likely to be injured? Then what's the cause?????

Give me logical reasons how a knee sprain from an exploded shoe during a game, bruised knee and damaged meniscus from banging knees in pre-season that led him to miss four months, a fractured right foot, a hamstring strain, and a lower back bone contusion from a fall are related. Outside of maybe weight, half are contact injuries that could happen to anyone.

His contract is not close to three year guaranteed max. It's also less than Zach Lavine's and will be ranked #30 next year since you want to call it max. He's paid like he's the 30th best player. It actually decreases as a percentage of cap each year. His contract has the least guarantees for a big contract in the league. He may not have any guaranteed money right now, according to his contract.
jnrjr79
Head Coach
Posts: 6,662
And1: 3,949
Joined: May 27, 2003
Location: Chicago

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#104 » by jnrjr79 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:00 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:Seems like most people in here are giving Zion like 10% chance to play more than 50 games. Average games per year sucks as a stat because some injuries are way longer than others. He missed one entire season, throws the curve. In two of his six seasons, Zion has played 61 and 70 games. The 70 was just last year. 33% of his seasons he's played over 60 games. He's lighter and older now while still being early 20's, presumably smarter. Shouldn't his odds be at least 33% or more he plays 60+ next season?

Over the last two seasons he's averaged 50 games for instance. He's at least 20 lbs lighter than he was three years ago. His injuries are not chronic and most appear to be weight related. If he keeps the pounds off, he should be heathier at the very least. His last injury was a back contusion from falling on that hard floor, couldn't that happen to anyone? No matter what size, if they're a high flyer? Do those missed games add to his injury proneness? It was a contact injury.

In a sense, I guess his style of play will lead to more injuries, the same as for any player that frequently attacks the basket and gets fouled, rather than taking mostly jump shots. But that risk comes with any attacker.


Here's another way to look at it. In 6 seasons, Zion has never ended a season available for the playoffs. Whether they made it or not, he was shut down at the end of every single year of his career.

I also think it's a huge stretch to say his injuries aren't chronic. He doesn't have a degenerative disease, but anatomically, he doesn't seem to be able to with stand the amount of torque his weight + athleticism puts on his legs. I don't think he's any thinner now than he was coming out of college, where that was still true.


The only caveat to this is it really looks like this season's shutdown was a tanking move rather than a necessary one, but I'm not sure that's really all that much comfort.
DropStep
Senior
Posts: 546
And1: 311
Joined: Feb 28, 2009

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#105 » by DropStep » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:03 pm

sco wrote:100% agree on Zion being a success here being a less than 50/50 proposition.

This is a move that probably increases your chance of winning a championship a bit, while also having a great chance of failure. As MJ might say, the ceiling is the roof, the floor is the basement. There is comparatively little middle ground.

This is not the AK way, from what we can glean. First, second, and third: you must compete, with as much certainty as possible, as quickly as possible.

This is a home run swing with a great chance of a strikeout. AK wants men on base. This move would go against his nature and his guiding principles as he has expressed them.
Infinity2152
Veteran
Posts: 2,606
And1: 948
Joined: Jul 19, 2023
       

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#106 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:05 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:Seems like most people in here are giving Zion like 10% chance to play more than 50 games. Average games per year sucks as a stat because some injuries are way longer than others. He missed one entire season, throws the curve. In two of his six seasons, Zion has played 61 and 70 games. The 70 was just last year. 33% of his seasons he's played over 60 games. He's lighter and older now while still being early 20's, presumably smarter. Shouldn't his odds be at least 33% or more he plays 60+ next season?

Over the last two seasons he's averaged 50 games for instance. He's at least 20 lbs lighter than he was three years ago. His injuries are not chronic and most appear to be weight related. If he keeps the pounds off, he should be heathier at the very least. His last injury was a back contusion from falling on that hard floor, couldn't that happen to anyone? No matter what size, if they're a high flyer? Do those missed games add to his injury proneness? It was a contact injury.

In a sense, I guess his style of play will lead to more injuries, the same as for any player that frequently attacks the basket and gets fouled, rather than taking mostly jump shots. But that risk comes with any attacker.


Here's another way to look at it. In 6 seasons, Zion has never ended a season available for the playoffs. Whether they made it or not, he was shut down at the end of every single year of his career.

I also think it's a huge stretch to say his injuries aren't chronic. He doesn't have a degenerative disease, but anatomically, he doesn't seem to be able to with stand the amount of torque his weight + athleticism puts on his legs. I don't think he's any thinner now than he was coming out of college, where that was still true.


The only caveat to this is it really looks like this season's shutdown was a tanking move rather than a necessary one, but I'm not sure that's really all that much comfort.


It definitely does look like they benched him to tank, and they're pretty clearly ready to trade him so they want him as healthy as possible, that happens all the time that players get shut down. Pushes his "yearly" average down even more, and his average over the last few years more than that. Absolutely sure they're extremely careful of him and he misses games where he could play.
sco
RealGM
Posts: 27,315
And1: 9,161
Joined: Sep 22, 2003
Location: Virtually Everywhere!

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#107 » by sco » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:14 pm

DropStep wrote:
sco wrote:100% agree on Zion being a success here being a less than 50/50 proposition.

This is a move that probably increases your chance of winning a championship a bit, while also having a great chance of failure. As MJ might say, the ceiling is the roof, the floor is the basement. There is comparatively little middle ground.

This is not the AK way, from what we can glean. First, second, and third: you must compete, with as much certainty as possible, as quickly as possible.

This is a home run swing with a great chance of a strikeout. AK wants men on base. This move would go against his nature and his guiding principles as he has expressed them.

IDK, AK went all in on Ball/Vuc/Demar. But I agree that the move is not likely (barring a "cheap" deal, which IMO is a deal not involving Coby or costing 3 1sts). Doing a non-cheap deal would be AK betting his job, which frequently happens by GM's who sense their job is at risk.

I also see risk for him in resigning Coby for $30M+, but fortunately that's a year away and I could see a scenario where we draft a guy who might end up as his replacement. I might even argue that if we got Zion, Huerter (or even Ball) is a better option for us at SG because the # of shots won't be there for Coby, and a a guy who can do more without the ball becomes more valuable.
:clap:
MrSparkle
RealGM
Posts: 23,339
And1: 11,166
Joined: Jul 31, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#108 » by MrSparkle » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:15 pm

Because he is a great talent, and because the contract is non-guaranteed, I go back to my initial point:

AK is not getting him without shelling out atleast 2 Bulls FRPs (3 if Patrick’s toxic salary is involved). The Portland pick would be icing. Given our contracts, we would be shipping out atleast 2 starters (if not 3), who while not great, are serviceable players for a full season (Vuc, Huerter, Collins, Coby, whoever).

So your limited FRP pool takes a hit. Your “win-now” depth chart takes a hit. Your incoming best player doesn’t compliment the 2nd best player (Giddey). Lastly, he won’t play a full season.

Why would NOP trade a top-5 advanced stat guy with a non guaranteed contract for some guaranteed money on a bunch of fringe starter scrubs? They want picks or pillar players (Matas or Coby, or Giddey). There’s nothing in it for them, otherwise. What’s the Portland pick gonna do? A maybe 15-20th pick? They’re loaded with mid prospects. The current #12 is a little appealing. They would want AK to repeat the Orlando special, promise some future lightly protected first(s) knowing Zion’s knee stability will play them into a #7-10 pick.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,795
And1: 18,869
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#109 » by dougthonus » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:16 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:The only caveat to this is it really looks like this season's shutdown was a tanking move rather than a necessary one, but I'm not sure that's really all that much comfort.


I don't know if he could have come back or not, but he certainly went out because he was legitimately hurt.
Infinity2152
Veteran
Posts: 2,606
And1: 948
Joined: Jul 19, 2023
       

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#110 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:20 pm

DropStep wrote:
sco wrote:100% agree on Zion being a success here being a less than 50/50 proposition.

This is a move that probably increases your chance of winning a championship a bit, while also having a great chance of failure. As MJ might say, the ceiling is the roof, the floor is the basement. There is comparatively little middle ground.

This is not the AK way, from what we can glean. First, second, and third: you must compete, with as much certainty as possible, as quickly as possible.

This is a home run swing with a great chance of a strikeout. AK wants men on base. This move would go against his nature and his guiding principles as he has expressed them.



I'd say AK makes power swings to hit home run. Traded our pick to add Derozan and he was a free agent, overkill. Traded multiple firsts and a recent top first round pick to get Vuc, very hard swing with a great chance of failure. He did it when he got here, hasn't had the assets to do it since the Ball injury.

Glad you brought up Ball. Can see predicting Ball's injury chances. He at least has an identified problem and his injuries are basically related. Multiple unrelated injuries are not predictable. For the predictors, what will his injury be next year? To his foot, his knee, or his back? Wrist? Answer: "I don't know, but it will be something! He's just unlucky." My man said I was cherry picking when I said two years. Like a broken foot three years ago or a knee sprain 4 years ago has anything to do with whether he gets injured in 2025.

Not saying Zion won't get injured. He's a big, physical player playing a professional contact sport. But these methods of calculating his injury likelihood seem extremely flawed, considering unrelated injuries over years.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,795
And1: 18,869
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#111 » by dougthonus » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:21 pm

Infinity2152 wrote:It definitely does look like they benched him to tank, and they're pretty clearly ready to trade him so they want him as healthy as possible, that happens all the time that players get shut down. Pushes his "yearly" average down even more, and his average over the last few years more than that. Absolutely sure they're extremely careful of him and he misses games where he could play.


4 years ago: Missed season
3 years ago: 29 games
2 years ago: 70 games
this year: 30 games

Even if you just want to use the last two years, which is the ultimate in cherry picking the absolute best case scenario, it's averaging less than half a season played.

If we're arguing is there a 1/3 chance he could have a healthy season vs a 10% chance he could have a healthy season? Sure, I'd give his odds of having a healthy season between 1/4 and 1/3. That's absolutely a no win situation for a team though, because if you are chasing a title, you typically need continuity over years. You'd likely get one healthy season out of Zion total in this scenario, that's not enough to ever build a title team when you are more than a healthy Zion away from doing it.

If the price is cheap enough, I'd be okay giving it a shot, and most of the offers in this thread are cheap enough that I'd say they qualify, the flip side is that NOP probably wouldn't take any of the offers made in this thread either. In that sense, I think the Bulls forum is pretty reasonable about what type of gamble they'd take on Zion, but it's probably not going to be enough to get the deal done.
sco
RealGM
Posts: 27,315
And1: 9,161
Joined: Sep 22, 2003
Location: Virtually Everywhere!

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#112 » by sco » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:26 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:It definitely does look like they benched him to tank, and they're pretty clearly ready to trade him so they want him as healthy as possible, that happens all the time that players get shut down. Pushes his "yearly" average down even more, and his average over the last few years more than that. Absolutely sure they're extremely careful of him and he misses games where he could play.


4 years ago: Missed season
3 years ago: 29 games
2 years ago: 70 games
this year: 30 games

Even if you just want to use the last two years, which is the ultimate in cherry picking the absolute best case scenario, it's averaging less than half a season played.

If we're arguing is there a 1/3 chance he could have a healthy season vs a 10% chance he could have a healthy season? Sure, I'd give his odds of having a healthy season between 1/4 and 1/3. That's absolutely a no win situation for a team though, because if you are chasing a title, you typically need continuity over years. You'd likely get one healthy season out of Zion total in this scenario, that's not enough to ever build a title team when you are more than a healthy Zion away from doing it.

If the price is cheap enough, I'd be okay giving it a shot, and most of the offers in this thread are cheap enough that I'd say they qualify, the flip side is that NOP probably wouldn't take any of the offers made in this thread either. In that sense, I think the Bulls forum is pretty reasonable about what type of gamble they'd take on Zion, but it's probably not going to be enough to get the deal done.

I think the idea that they benched him to keep him healthy enough to trade is feasible.

So Doug, what is "cheap enough" for you? 2 1sts plus no Coby? Coby plus our 25 pick? Obviously, plus filler. Would you pay a little more to include Vuc or PWill?
:clap:
Infinity2152
Veteran
Posts: 2,606
And1: 948
Joined: Jul 19, 2023
       

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#113 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:30 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:It definitely does look like they benched him to tank, and they're pretty clearly ready to trade him so they want him as healthy as possible, that happens all the time that players get shut down. Pushes his "yearly" average down even more, and his average over the last few years more than that. Absolutely sure they're extremely careful of him and he misses games where he could play.


4 years ago: Missed season
3 years ago: 29 games
2 years ago: 70 games
this year: 30 games

Even if you just want to use the last two years, which is the ultimate in cherry picking the absolute best case scenario, it's averaging less than half a season played.

If we're arguing is there a 1/3 chance he could have a healthy season vs a 10% chance he could have a healthy season? Sure, I'd give his odds of having a healthy season between 1/4 and 1/3. That's absolutely a no win situation for a team though, because if you are chasing a title, you typically need continuity over years. You'd likely get one healthy season out of Zion total in this scenario, that's not enough to ever build a title team when you are more than a healthy Zion away from doing it.

If the price is cheap enough, I'd be okay giving it a shot, and most of the offers in this thread are cheap enough that I'd say they qualify, the flip side is that NOP probably wouldn't take any of the offers made in this thread either. In that sense, I think the Bulls forum is pretty reasonable about what type of gamble they'd take on Zion, but it's probably not going to be enough to get the deal done.


He played 70 games in 2023-2024, 1 season ago. Last two years is 70 and 30, so 50 games average. That's not inculding the fact they probably sat him games he could have played this year. You can call it cherry picking, already explained it was an example of how this entire process is stupid. Previous injuries do not affect future injuries, unless they are related.

EVERYBODY has still failed to show a plan with more than 20% success rate of getting a number 1 here in the next few years. Let's just stick with playing it safe like we have been the last 5 years, and hope for a superstar through the draft. Way less than 10-20% chance.

His contract is voidable. If he's constantly injured we can get out of it. It's ridiculous people are acting like if we trade for him and he's injured the entire next 3 years, we'll be paying him his full salary the next 3 years. He can be voided or traded.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,795
And1: 18,869
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#114 » by dougthonus » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:31 pm

sco wrote:I think the idea that they benched him to keep him healthy enough to trade is feasible.

So Doug, what is "cheap enough" for you? 2 1sts plus no Coby? Coby plus our 25 pick? Obviously, plus filler. Would you pay a little more to include Vuc or PWill?


I think Coby + our 2025 pick + portland pick + filler salary is the most I would consider offering, and possibly enough they'd consider doing it. They probably flip Coby somewhere else.

That would leave us with a lot of problems in that Matas, Giddey, and Zion are probably terrible fits next to each other as Coby is our main volume shooter (assuming Lonzo can't play big minutes for you). That said, you'd increase the talent a lot, and I feel like you can find another Coby White. Finding guys who can be good volume one dimensional scorers if given a lot of touches doesn't seem too hard.
Infinity2152
Veteran
Posts: 2,606
And1: 948
Joined: Jul 19, 2023
       

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#115 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:38 pm

dougthonus wrote:
sco wrote:I think the idea that they benched him to keep him healthy enough to trade is feasible.

So Doug, what is "cheap enough" for you? 2 1sts plus no Coby? Coby plus our 25 pick? Obviously, plus filler. Would you pay a little more to include Vuc or PWill?


I think Coby + our 2025 pick + portland pick + filler salary is the most I would consider offering, and possibly enough they'd consider doing it. They probably flip Coby somewhere else.

That would leave us with a lot of problems in that Matas, Giddey, and Zion are probably terrible fits next to each other as Coby is our main volume shooter (assuming Lonzo can't play big minutes for you). That said, you'd increase the talent a lot, and I feel like you can find another Coby White. Finding guys who can be good volume one dimensional scorers if given a lot of touches doesn't seem too hard.


This is where I'm at. Not trading the world for him, but I saw a trade proposal from a respected pundit suggesting Coby White, Vucevic and Jevon Carter, no picks. Is that too much to give up for Zion too? Not at any price? Or is it because, not having any idea what the Pels are looking for, the cost is automatically to great to even consider.

I think you just put two good/great defenders around Giddey, Matas, Zion, hopefully with range, you're good. You don't need playmakers, and Giddey, Matas, Zion should provide a ton of scoring. Zion easily eats up Coby's scoring with far higher efficiency. Good 3 and D shooting guard, doesn't need to be Coby's "level". Good paint defending center, athletic, be nice if he has decent range. We don't really need to add All-Stars to Giddey, Matas, Zion, lottery rookie.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,795
And1: 18,869
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#116 » by dougthonus » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:43 pm

Infinity2152 wrote:This is where I'm at. Not trading the world for him, but I saw a trade proposal from a respected pundit suggesting Coby White, Vucevic and Jevon Carter, no picks. Is that too much to give up for Zion too? Not at any price? Or is it because, not having any idea what the Pels are looking for, the cost is automatically to great to even consider.

I think you just put two good/great defenders around Giddey, Matas, Zion, hopefully with range, you're good. You don't need playmakers, and Giddey, Matas, Zion should provide a ton of scoring. Zion easily eats up Coby's scoring with far higher efficiency.


If I'm the Pels, I'm looking at a rebuild and to just get "the most" of whatever helps me with that. Like if it's open bidding, the Pels will probably just canvas the league and get as much as they can. They will start high and then see what they can get from people as they negotiate.

I'd jump all over Coby, Vuc, Carter and no picks. For me, like I said, that + our 2025 and the Portland pick (may not convey at all, but if it does, conveys to non lotto pick anyway) seems fine. Pending of course that we don't move up in the lottery.
jnrjr79
Head Coach
Posts: 6,662
And1: 3,949
Joined: May 27, 2003
Location: Chicago

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#117 » by jnrjr79 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:44 pm

MrSparkle wrote:Because he is a great talent, and because the contract is non-guaranteed, I go back to my initial point:

AK is not getting him without shelling out atleast 2 Bulls FRPs (3 if Patrick’s toxic salary is involved). The Portland pick would be icing. Given our contracts, we would be shipping out atleast 2 starters (if not 3), who while not great, are serviceable players for a full season (Vuc, Huerter, Collins, Coby, whoever).

So your limited FRP pool takes a hit. Your “win-now” depth chart takes a hit. Your incoming best player doesn’t compliment the 2nd best player (Giddey). Lastly, he won’t play a full season.

Why would NOP trade a top-5 advanced stat guy with a non guaranteed contract for some guaranteed money on a bunch of fringe starter scrubs? They want picks or pillar players (Matas or Coby, or Giddey). There’s nothing in it for them, otherwise. What’s the Portland pick gonna do? A maybe 15-20th pick? They’re loaded with mid prospects. The current #12 is a little appealing. They would want AK to repeat the Orlando special, promise some future lightly protected first(s) knowing Zion’s knee stability will play them into a #7-10 pick.


IMO, this conversation is wholly contingent on the idea that Dumars was hired with a directive to trade Zion. In that case, the deal is not so much "why would NO do this" as "they'll take the best deal they can get."

What's the best deal they can get? I have no idea, because I imagine there will be a broad spectrum of views on Zion given the health and character concerns.
jnrjr79
Head Coach
Posts: 6,662
And1: 3,949
Joined: May 27, 2003
Location: Chicago

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#118 » by jnrjr79 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:45 pm

sco wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:It definitely does look like they benched him to tank, and they're pretty clearly ready to trade him so they want him as healthy as possible, that happens all the time that players get shut down. Pushes his "yearly" average down even more, and his average over the last few years more than that. Absolutely sure they're extremely careful of him and he misses games where he could play.


4 years ago: Missed season
3 years ago: 29 games
2 years ago: 70 games
this year: 30 games

Even if you just want to use the last two years, which is the ultimate in cherry picking the absolute best case scenario, it's averaging less than half a season played.

If we're arguing is there a 1/3 chance he could have a healthy season vs a 10% chance he could have a healthy season? Sure, I'd give his odds of having a healthy season between 1/4 and 1/3. That's absolutely a no win situation for a team though, because if you are chasing a title, you typically need continuity over years. You'd likely get one healthy season out of Zion total in this scenario, that's not enough to ever build a title team when you are more than a healthy Zion away from doing it.

If the price is cheap enough, I'd be okay giving it a shot, and most of the offers in this thread are cheap enough that I'd say they qualify, the flip side is that NOP probably wouldn't take any of the offers made in this thread either. In that sense, I think the Bulls forum is pretty reasonable about what type of gamble they'd take on Zion, but it's probably not going to be enough to get the deal done.

I think the idea that they benched him to keep him healthy enough to trade is feasible.

So Doug, what is "cheap enough" for you? 2 1sts plus no Coby? Coby plus our 25 pick? Obviously, plus filler. Would you pay a little more to include Vuc or PWill?


I suspect you wouldn't have to pay more to include Vooch, since he's expiring. They'd just let him expire, maybe buy him out, etc.
Infinity2152
Veteran
Posts: 2,606
And1: 948
Joined: Jul 19, 2023
       

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#119 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:47 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:This is where I'm at. Not trading the world for him, but I saw a trade proposal from a respected pundit suggesting Coby White, Vucevic and Jevon Carter, no picks. Is that too much to give up for Zion too? Not at any price? Or is it because, not having any idea what the Pels are looking for, the cost is automatically to great to even consider.

I think you just put two good/great defenders around Giddey, Matas, Zion, hopefully with range, you're good. You don't need playmakers, and Giddey, Matas, Zion should provide a ton of scoring. Zion easily eats up Coby's scoring with far higher efficiency.


If I'm the Pels, I'm looking at a rebuild and to just get "the most" of whatever helps me with that. Like if it's open bidding, the Pels will probably just canvas the league and get as much as they can. They will start high and then see what they can get from people as they negotiate.

I'd jump all over Coby, Vuc, Carter and no picks.


Thank you! If we're debating the cost, that's what I'm talking about. Don't know what the Pels are looking for, and even more importantly, what's the lowest offer they accept. Have no idea what league interest will be for Zion, may not be a lot of offers to add $40 mill player with injury issues. The same things that people are complaining about are the reasons he's available at a huge discount. Always healthy Zion gets 6 firsts minimum, good young player, expiring contract and 6 pick swaps.

It's wild people are snubbing their noses at a guy who would be the highest rated Bull since D-Rose, like he wouldn't instantly be the best player on the team. Outside of Giddey and Matas, there are no important players on this team. Trading those guys, maybe with a couple of picks, is not killing our future, even if it doesn't work.
jnrjr79
Head Coach
Posts: 6,662
And1: 3,949
Joined: May 27, 2003
Location: Chicago

Re: The Bulls should go all in for Zion 

Post#120 » by jnrjr79 » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:48 pm

Infinity2152 wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
sco wrote:I think the idea that they benched him to keep him healthy enough to trade is feasible.

So Doug, what is "cheap enough" for you? 2 1sts plus no Coby? Coby plus our 25 pick? Obviously, plus filler. Would you pay a little more to include Vuc or PWill?


I think Coby + our 2025 pick + portland pick + filler salary is the most I would consider offering, and possibly enough they'd consider doing it. They probably flip Coby somewhere else.

That would leave us with a lot of problems in that Matas, Giddey, and Zion are probably terrible fits next to each other as Coby is our main volume shooter (assuming Lonzo can't play big minutes for you). That said, you'd increase the talent a lot, and I feel like you can find another Coby White. Finding guys who can be good volume one dimensional scorers if given a lot of touches doesn't seem too hard.


This is where I'm at. Not trading the world for him, but I saw a trade proposal from a respected pundit suggesting Coby White, Vucevic and Jevon Carter, no picks. Is that too much to give up for Zion too? Not at any price? Or is it because, not having any idea what the Pels are looking for, the cost is automatically to great to even consider.

I think you just put two good/great defenders around Giddey, Matas, Zion, hopefully with range, you're good. You don't need playmakers, and Giddey, Matas, Zion should provide a ton of scoring. Zion easily eats up Coby's scoring with far higher efficiency. Good 3 and D shooting guard, doesn't need to be Coby's "level". Good paint defending center, athletic, be nice if he has decent range. We don't really need to add All-Stars to Giddey, Matas, Zion, lottery rookie.


I'd be pretty surprised if you didn't have to include draft capital with that offer, but if you didn't, I'd do it. Vooch and Carter are just filler, so you're down to Coby vs. Zion. I'd say Zion, including his extreme health risk, is still more likely to become a true #1 than Coby, since he already is one when he plays and I severely doubt Coby ever becomes one.

Return to Chicago Bulls