Jdub is the best player from the 2022 draft

[TheChaser]

Jalen gets to play with SGA at PG while Paolo has Cory Joseph starting currently…

This. Paolo does what he does while being the main focus of every NBA defense night in night out. This has got to be coming from someone who doesn’t really watch Paolo play. JDub is great. Just not better than PB5.

[swyftdahoe]

What a draft! In a redraft, I’d take him 3rd.

[Saints14]

He might be when it’s all said and done. I had Chet #1 and still think he’s the most talented player in that draft but his injuries are a bit concerning. Was never super high on Paolo and would take him slightly over Dub now due to his age, tools and team context but it’s close. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Jalen ends up having the best career out of that class

[bbms]

If you swapped Chet with Paolo, you think he would be able to shoulder that offensive responsibility for Orlando? I don't see it.

i don't see it too. but how is that relevant?

paolo wouldn't be able to shoulder the defensive responsibility both jdub and chet carry in okc. for god's sake jdub anchored nba's top defense as a 5 for a good chunk of the season when chet and harteinstein where out.

paolo is 5 inches taller yet somehow he isn't half the rim protector jdub is, let alone 1-5 defensive fit jdub has.

don't you think orlando's offense could be better if banchero afforded them to carry one less defensive bigman?

or maybe we should start evaluating curry's as a player by how well he plays as pick and roll screener, giannis on how well he can play stretch 4.

[Chuck Everett]

If you swapped Chet with Paolo, you think he would be able to shoulder that offensive responsibility for Orlando? I don't see it.

i don't see it too. but how is that relevant? paolo wouldn't be able to shoulder the defensive responsibility both jdub and chet carry in okc. paolo is 5 inches taller yet somehow he isn't half the rim protector jdub is, let alone 1-5 defensive fit jdub has.

for god's sake jdub anchored nba's top defense as a 5 for a good chunk of the season when chet and harteinstein where out.

or maybe we should start evaluating curry's as a player by how well he plays as pick and roll screener, giannis on how well he can play stretch 4.

Chet missed half the season and OKC was still #1 in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. You're dinging Paolo for defense when Orlando was #2 in defense this year and last year. He plays the most minutes on the team and yet somehow is bad enough on D that they remain top 2 two years in a row? That dog won't hunt.

And it's relevant, because the conversation is who is the best player from the 2022 draft. I think it's Paolo. I also think Chet and J-Dub are right there, however, I am NOT one of those people who thinks it's a foregone conclusion that Chet is better than Jalen Williams, especially considering how durable and versatile the latter is. You need to take it up with someone else, because I have repeatedly said on this site that I think J-Dub is an all-NBA caliber player moving forward. I just so happen to think Paolo can become an MVP in this league. Reasonable minds can disagree.

[bbms]

If you swapped Chet with Paolo, you think he would be able to shoulder that offensive responsibility for Orlando? I don't see it.

i don't see it too. but how is that relevant? paolo wouldn't be able to shoulder the defensive responsibility both jdub and chet carry in okc. paolo is 5 inches taller yet somehow he isn't half the rim protector jdub is, let alone 1-5 defensive fit jdub has.

for god's sake jdub anchored nba's top defense as a 5 for a good chunk of the season when chet and harteinstein where out.

or maybe we should start evaluating curry's as a player by how well he plays as pick and roll screener, giannis on how well he can play stretch 4.

Chet missed half the season and OKC was still #1 in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. You're dinging Paolo for defense when Orlando was #2 in defense this year and last year. He plays the most minutes on the team and yet somehow is bad enough on D that they remain top 2 two years in a row? That dog won't hunt.

I am also not one of those people who thinks it's a foregone conclusion that Chet is better than Jalen Williams, especially considering how durable and versatile the latter is. You need to take it up with someone else, because I have repeatedly said on this site that I think J-Dub is an all-NBA caliber player moving forward. I just so happen to think Paolo can become an MVP in this league. Reasonable minds can disagree.

what i'm questioning is very simple:

how would orlando's offense fare if banchero afforded them to carry one less defensive big?

how do you separate orlando's offensive struggles from the fact that banchero's defensive shortcomings limit their lineup composition in ways jdub (let alone chet) would never limit because of his defensive impact and versatility?

op isn't saying jdub is the best scorer from the draft.

op is saying jdub has been the best basketball player from this draft and he's entirely correct.

[Chuck Everett]

i don't see it too. but how is that relevant? paolo wouldn't be able to shoulder the defensive responsibility both jdub and chet carry in okc. paolo is 5 inches taller yet somehow he isn't half the rim protector jdub is, let alone 1-5 defensive fit jdub has.

for god's sake jdub anchored nba's top defense as a 5 for a good chunk of the season when chet and harteinstein where out.

or maybe we should start evaluating curry's as a player by how well he plays as pick and roll screener, giannis on how well he can play stretch 4.

Chet missed half the season and OKC was still #1 in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. You're dinging Paolo for defense when Orlando was #2 in defense this year and last year. He plays the most minutes on the team and yet somehow is bad enough on D that they remain top 2 two years in a row? That dog won't hunt.

I am also not one of those people who thinks it's a foregone conclusion that Chet is better than Jalen Williams, especially considering how durable and versatile the latter is. You need to take it up with someone else, because I have repeatedly said on this site that I think J-Dub is an all-NBA caliber player moving forward. I just so happen to think Paolo can become an MVP in this league. Reasonable minds can disagree.

what i'm questioning is very simple:

how would orlando's offense fare if banchero afforded them to carry one less defensive big?

how do you separate orlando's offensive struggles from the fact that banchero's defensive shortcomings limit their lineup composition in ways jdub (let alone chet) would never limit because of his defensive impact and versatility?

op isn't saying jdub is the best scorer from the draft.

op is saying jdub has been the best basketball player from this draft and he's entirely correct.

One less defensive big? Are you talking about Wendell Carter Jr? Mo Wagner (who's out for the season with a torn ACL)? No one considers these guys defensive stoppers. Jon Isaac is a great defender, but he has to be on a stringent minutes restriction because he can't physically make it through a season otherwise. One of the reasons Orlando is so good defensively is due to the sheer size of Paolo and Franz in the frontcourt. There isn't a team in the league that can match it, save for Minnesota.

You think Banchero's defense is why the Orlando front office refuses to get guards who can shoot/score the basketball? This has been a problem since before he was even on the roster.

OP is saying J-Dub is the best player, but I don't see how that could be a foregone conclusion, when in this very same thread, you have people saying Chet is better than him. You just seem to be arguing for the sake of it.

[MoneyTalks41890]

The thing with JDub is that there are not really any holes in his game. He’s not a great screener I think but that’s about it. He can score and defend at three levels.

How much he can create his own offense these playoffs against the elite teams in the league is the question mark from last year.

But he’s an incredibly well rounded player.

[MarcusBrody]

If you swapped Chet with Paolo, you think he would be able to shoulder that offensive responsibility for Orlando? I don't see it.

i don't see it too. but how is that relevant? paolo wouldn't be able to shoulder the defensive responsibility both jdub and chet carry in okc. paolo is 5 inches taller yet somehow he isn't half the rim protector jdub is, let alone 1-5 defensive fit jdub has.

for god's sake jdub anchored nba's top defense as a 5 for a good chunk of the season when chet and harteinstein where out.

or maybe we should start evaluating curry's as a player by how well he plays as pick and roll screener, giannis on how well he can play stretch 4.

Chet missed half the season and OKC was still #1 in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. You're dinging Paolo for defense when Orlando was #2 in defense this year and last year. He plays the most minutes on the team and yet somehow is bad enough on D that they remain top 2 two years in a row? That dog won't hunt.

Orlando was 2.5 points per possession worse this year defensively when Paolo was on the floor. Not ideal, but maybe ok if they're really good defensively overall. They were also 0.7 points per possession better offensively with him on the bench than on the court. His on/off differential for his games played would generally equate to -7 wins (that's 7 wins less than the average player).

It would be easier to blame all of this on his weak teammates if the other young, high usage forward - Franz - didn't look better by almost ever metric. His on offs are all extremely positive. 7.6 points per 100 better on offense and 6.4 better on defense with him on vs off. And his TS% stays the same whether Banchero is on the court with him or not. Banchero's drops by 4 points when Franz isn't playing with him. Also, despite the disrespect in this thread, Banchero is actually notably more efficient when playing with Cory Joseph than without (.58TS% vs. .54%), though the minutes with aren't gigantic, so we should expect some variation.

One thing that makes me optimistic about Banchero is that he's still young and has improved each year. But I don't think he's a really good player yet. Just a high volume player. He has talent and a great body though, so I hope to see him make a leap in the next year or two.

[MGB8]

Paolo could be a generational type player. Chet could to, but in different ways. Jalen Williams, while very, very good, isn’t quite that.

Put it this way. Magic without Paolo are a play in level team, maybe less. OKC without Jalen is a top 4 team in the West. Ditto OKC without Chet.

[MGB8]

i don't see it too. but how is that relevant? paolo wouldn't be able to shoulder the defensive responsibility both jdub and chet carry in okc. paolo is 5 inches taller yet somehow he isn't half the rim protector jdub is, let alone 1-5 defensive fit jdub has.

for god's sake jdub anchored nba's top defense as a 5 for a good chunk of the season when chet and harteinstein where out.

or maybe we should start evaluating curry's as a player by how well he plays as pick and roll screener, giannis on how well he can play stretch 4.

Chet missed half the season and OKC was still #1 in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. You're dinging Paolo for defense when Orlando was #2 in defense this year and last year. He plays the most minutes on the team and yet somehow is bad enough on D that they remain top 2 two years in a row? That dog won't hunt.

Orlando was 2.5 points per possession worse this year defensively when Paolo was on the floor. Not ideal, but maybe ok if they're really good defensively overall. They were also 0.7 points per possession better offensively with him on the bench than on the court. His on/off differential for his games played would generally equate to -7 wins (that's 7 wins less than the average player).

It would be easier to blame all of this on his weak teammates if the other young, high usage forward - Franz - didn't look better by almost ever metric. His on offs are all extremely positive. 7.6 points per 100 better on offense and 6.4 better on defense with him on vs off. And his TS% stays the same whether Banchero is on the court with him or not. Banchero's drops by 4 points when Franz isn't playing with him. Also, despite the disrespect in this thread, Banchero is actually notably more efficient when playing with Cory Joseph than without (.58TS% vs. .54%), though the minutes with aren't gigantic, so we should expect some variation.

One thing that makes me optimistic about Banchero is that he's still young and has improved each year. But I don't think he's a really good player yet. Just a high volume player. He has talent and a great body though, so I hope to see him make a leap in the next year or two.

Fails to factor in that Banchero had a stretch when he was coming back from a pretty serious injury and it took him about 2 games to return to his early season beast mode. Take away I juryhrecovery, and he is plus on D and a huge positive in terms of on-off.

[bbms]

Chet missed half the season and OKC was still #1 in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. You're dinging Paolo for defense when Orlando was #2 in defense this year and last year. He plays the most minutes on the team and yet somehow is bad enough on D that they remain top 2 two years in a row? That dog won't hunt.

Orlando was 2.5 points per possession worse this year defensively when Paolo was on the floor. Not ideal, but maybe ok if they're really good defensively overall. They were also 0.7 points per possession better offensively with him on the bench than on the court. His on/off differential for his games played would generally equate to -7 wins (that's 7 wins less than the average player).

It would be easier to blame all of this on his weak teammates if the other young, high usage forward - Franz - didn't look better by almost ever metric. His on offs are all extremely positive. 7.6 points per 100 better on offense and 6.4 better on defense with him on vs off. And his TS% stays the same whether Banchero is on the court with him or not. Banchero's drops by 4 points when Franz isn't playing with him. Also, despite the disrespect in this thread, Banchero is actually notably more efficient when playing with Cory Joseph than without (.58TS% vs. .54%), though the minutes with aren't gigantic, so we should expect some variation.

One thing that makes me optimistic about Banchero is that he's still young and has improved each year. But I don't think he's a really good player yet. Just a high volume player. He has talent and a great body though, so I hope to see him make a leap in the next year or two.

Fails to factor in that Banchero had a stretch when he was coming back from a pretty serious injury and it took him about 2 games to return to his early season beast mode. Take away I juryhrecovery, and he is plus on D and a huge positive in terms of on-off.

on what adjusted metric?

[MGB8]

drtg. On off. The Magic struggled when Banchero was coming back from injury. Suggs being hurt obviously compounded things. But as Banchero returned to his early season form, Magic began looking better and better. Despite being a team of only 2 plus p,Ayer’s, an injured 3rd, and lots of journeymen.

[bbms]

drtg. On off. The Magic struggled when Banchero was coming back from injury. Suggs being hurt obviously compounded things. But as Banchero returned to his early season form, Magic began looking better and better. Despite being a team of only 2 plus p,Ayer’s, an injured 3rd, and lots of journeymen.

neither of them are adjusted

[cupcakesnake]

Jalen Williams has been the best player so far. Chet and Paolo still have more potential and a realistic path to achieving that potential.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Intangibles at 98

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[WestbrookGOATed]

This is 100% box score watching from this season, so anyone feel free to add more nuance to this. I get Paolo got hurt and struggled that first month back from the injury.

The last 29 games of the season he averaged 28/7/5 on 58 TS%.

We saw him excel in the playoffs last year and today he dropped 36/11/4 on 60 TS%.

And there are 2 big things to factor into this.

1. ORL has the worst spacing in the NBA. They make the least amount of 3s and have the worst 3pt% in the league. Paolo probably had better spacing in college than he’s had in the NBA. The fact he’s able to do what he does with the worst spacing in the league is very impressive.

2. There is a massive difference between being the true and obvious #1 on a team vs not being that. Jalen gets to play off of the probable MVP. That makes his life on offense drastically easier.

I get the two way stuff with Jalen. I just think a 6’10 260+ pound point forward, who is a true #1 is just something that is harder to come by.

To be clear, this is no shot at Jalen. It’s more to the fact that Paolo was in the class and he’s showing that he is already a high level #1 option. Just imagine what he will look like when he gets to drive into a paint without having multiple help defenders help on him. And being able to kick out to multiple high level shooters. Looking at the stats, ORL only had 1 rotation player who shot better than 36% from 3. And that’s Caleb Houstan who was 11th in minutes and made just 64 3s on the season. The 2 guys on the team that made at least 100 3s on the season shot 34% and 29%. Not too impressive haha

Calling him a true #1 is a bit of a stretch.

[thelead]

One of my favorite young players in the league. That said, I have Paolo ahead of him for two reasons:
1) The obvious of Paolo doing what he’s doing with the terrible roster construction he has been dealt. If he hadn’t been derailed by injuries this year, we may have seen the progression from ROY in year 1, to all-star in year 2, to all-nba in year 3.
2) Age. Paolo is 22 while JDub is 24.

That said, I’m envious of the whole OKC situation as I’m sure most fans are. Presti’s drafting has been incredible. Sure, he has his misses like everyone else but he has put himself in a position to take as many swings as his roster can handle.

[TravisScott55]

Paolo way better

[Billl]

I went with "too soon". He's obviously playing great and having a lot of success, and he's already been an all-star. He's not one of those guys though where it's just a foregone conclusion he's going to be that level every year for a decade. Paulo has already made 1 too, and there are at least 4 other guys from that draft who may end up playing in all-star games if everything fell right for them.