2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Case2012]

Are we sure about that?

I know there were rumors, but I thought that I heard that PELS never included Zion in their offer

yeah...that's how I understood it. Zion was never part of any deal

Yeah, there was a lot of media buzz about it, so much so I even remember ESPN had some segments about it, but after Joe or someone with direct knowledge of the negotiations talked about it publicly after the fact, both sides were pretty clear Zion never was part of those talks.... now granted, how truthful that is and not the teams trying to cover over their talks to not upset Zion if he didn't want to be talked about in trades is another thing.

Ok, so I only brought it up because that's what Murang says very clearly in that clip from the fan last week. He says it point blank, and no one has acknowledged that. Scoot for Zion. So are we saying that he just made it up? I'm genuinely curious because idk. I'm not a fan of Murang at all, but he likes to brag that he's an insider, but he could be full of it.

[BlazersBroncos]

Another Sabonis idea where we attempt to keep all the youth -

PDX OUT - Ayton, Simons, RWIII, Murray, #10, lower 2029 FRP
PDX IN - Sabonis, Cole, KCP

SAC OUT - Sabonis
SAC IN - Ayton, Murray, #10, #16, lower 2029 FRP

ORL OUT - KCP, Cole, #16
ORL IN - Simons

PDX goes win-now but keeps their youth.
ORL gets the guard scorer they need while cutting a year off Cole / KCP.
SAC gets a huge EC, reunites the Murray's, 2 decent FRP and a future FRP.

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
F - Toumani Camara / Matisse Thybulle / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Jabari Walker JR
C - Domantas Sabonis / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

[DusterBuster]

yeah...that's how I understood it. Zion was never part of any deal

Yeah, there was a lot of media buzz about it, so much so I even remember ESPN had some segments about it, but after Joe or someone with direct knowledge of the negotiations talked about it publicly after the fact, both sides were pretty clear Zion never was part of those talks.... now granted, how truthful that is and not the teams trying to cover over their talks to not upset Zion if he didn't want to be talked about in trades is another thing.

Ok, so I only brought it up because that's what Murang says very clearly in that clip from the fan last week. He says it point blank, and no one has acknowledged that. Scoot for Zion. So are we saying that he just made it up? I'm genuinely curious because idk. I'm not a fan of Murang at all, but he likes to brag that he's an insider, but he could be full of it.

I believe I recall this segment, listened to it in the car and haven't rewatched, so this could be wrong, but when this was discussed, he only brought up Scoot for Zion in the context of what kind of hypothetical deal would get Zion to Portland. He claimed, basing it off the old intel from the 2023 draft, that they were interested in Scoot when the Blazers were shopping the #3 pick. The Pelicans were very interested in Scoot, but reports were they weren't interested enough to part with Zion, and the Blazers wanted a star in return for #3, so thats where the trade died.

I'm not aware how accurate Marang has the events he's talking about. These radio guys need to speak off the cuff for quite a few hours, so at times their info isn't always perfect, so maybe it was just the case he left out some parts?

[dckingsfan]

Another Sabonis idea where we attempt to keep all the youth -

PDX OUT - Ayton, Simons, RWIII, Murray, #10, lower 2029 FRP
PDX IN - Sabonis, Cole, KCP

SAC OUT - Sabonis
SAC IN - Ayton, Murray, #10, #16, lower 2029 FRP

ORL OUT - KCP, Cole, #16
ORL IN - Simons

PDX goes win-now but keeps their youth.
ORL gets the guard scorer they need while cutting a year off Cole / KCP.
SAC gets a huge EC, reunites the Murray's, 2 decent FRP and a future FRP.

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
F - Toumani Camara / Matisse Thybulle / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Jabari Walker JR
C - Domantas Sabonis / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

That is pretty creative. Sac getting a C and 3 picks is a possibility. Good for Orlando as well if they are bought into a Simons/Suggs backcourt.

[Case2012]

Yeah, there was a lot of media buzz about it, so much so I even remember ESPN had some segments about it, but after Joe or someone with direct knowledge of the negotiations talked about it publicly after the fact, both sides were pretty clear Zion never was part of those talks.... now granted, how truthful that is and not the teams trying to cover over their talks to not upset Zion if he didn't want to be talked about in trades is another thing.

Ok, so I only brought it up because that's what Murang says very clearly in that clip from the fan last week. He says it point blank, and no one has acknowledged that. Scoot for Zion. So are we saying that he just made it up? I'm genuinely curious because idk. I'm not a fan of Murang at all, but he likes to brag that he's an insider, but he could be full of it.

I believe I recall this segment, listened to it in the car and haven't rewatched, so this could be wrong, but when this was discussed, he only brought up Scoot for Zion in the context of what kind of hypothetical deal would get Zion to Portland. He claimed, basing it off the old intel from the 2023 draft, that they were interested in Scoot when the Blazers were shopping the #3 pick. The Pelicans were very interested in Scoot, but reports were they weren't interested enough to part with Zion, and the Blazers wanted a star in return for #3, so thats where the trade died.

I'm not aware how accurate Marang has the events he's talking about. These radio guys need to speak off the cuff for quite a few hours, so at times their info isn't always perfect, so maybe it was just the case he left out some parts?

I posted the video. He says that it was Portland that passed on Zion for Scoot, and it was Griffin that was high enough on Scoot to make the offer. Idk how the salary would have worked, but that's what Marang Claims.

[DusterBuster]

Ok, so I only brought it up because that's what Murang says very clearly in that clip from the fan last week. He says it point blank, and no one has acknowledged that. Scoot for Zion. So are we saying that he just made it up? I'm genuinely curious because idk. I'm not a fan of Murang at all, but he likes to brag that he's an insider, but he could be full of it.

I believe I recall this segment, listened to it in the car and haven't rewatched, so this could be wrong, but when this was discussed, he only brought up Scoot for Zion in the context of what kind of hypothetical deal would get Zion to Portland. He claimed, basing it off the old intel from the 2023 draft, that they were interested in Scoot when the Blazers were shopping the #3 pick. The Pelicans were very interested in Scoot, but reports were they weren't interested enough to part with Zion, and the Blazers wanted a star in return for #3, so thats where the trade died.

I'm not aware how accurate Marang has the events he's talking about. These radio guys need to speak off the cuff for quite a few hours, so at times their info isn't always perfect, so maybe it was just the case he left out some parts?

I posted the video. He says that it was Portland that passed on Zion for Scoot, and it was Griffin that was high enough on Scoot to make the offer. Idk how the salary would have worked, but that's what Marang Claims.

Hmmmm… I never know to trust Marang about this. That WAS the rumor at the time of predraft when there was some smoke, but after the draft and Portland kept Scoot, the word after the fact was that they never put Zion on the table. Marang has sources, so I give him some credit, but he also projects insane amounts of confidence that can sometimes not always be 100% accurate.

I seem to remember Marang was one of the ones really pushing the Zion news at the time, he seemed super confident that it was real, but then it didn’t happen and the official sources claimed that never really was serious… so the truth likely is somewhere in the middle. Griffin did like and want Scoot, Blazers only were gonna make a deal for Scoot if it was Zion coming back, Griffin thought that was too expensive and the deal died. But talks did “happen” to some extent.

[tester551]

Ok, so I only brought it up because that's what Murang says very clearly in that clip from the fan last week. He says it point blank, and no one has acknowledged that. Scoot for Zion. So are we saying that he just made it up? I'm genuinely curious because idk. I'm not a fan of Murang at all, but he likes to brag that he's an insider, but he could be full of it.

I believe I recall this segment, listened to it in the car and haven't rewatched, so this could be wrong, but when this was discussed, he only brought up Scoot for Zion in the context of what kind of hypothetical deal would get Zion to Portland. He claimed, basing it off the old intel from the 2023 draft, that they were interested in Scoot when the Blazers were shopping the #3 pick. The Pelicans were very interested in Scoot, but reports were they weren't interested enough to part with Zion, and the Blazers wanted a star in return for #3, so thats where the trade died.

I'm not aware how accurate Marang has the events he's talking about. These radio guys need to speak off the cuff for quite a few hours, so at times their info isn't always perfect, so maybe it was just the case he left out some parts?

I posted the video. He says that it was Portland that passed on Zion for Scoot, and it was Griffin that was high enough on Scoot to make the offer. Idk how the salary would have worked, but that's what Marang Claims.

When I listened to the segment, my takeaway was similar to Duster's.

I only listened to it because of the link you provided. I can understand why you thought he said Zion 'was offered' - but I don't think he ever said that...

[Tim Lehrbach]

Another Sabonis idea where we attempt to keep all the youth -

PDX OUT - Ayton, Simons, RWIII, Murray, #10, lower 2029 FRP
PDX IN - Sabonis, Cole, KCP

SAC OUT - Sabonis
SAC IN - Ayton, Murray, #10, #16, lower 2029 FRP

ORL OUT - KCP, Cole, #16
ORL IN - Simons

PDX goes win-now but keeps their youth.
ORL gets the guard scorer they need while cutting a year off Cole / KCP.
SAC gets a huge EC, reunites the Murray's, 2 decent FRP and a future FRP.

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
F - Toumani Camara / Matisse Thybulle / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Jabari Walker JR
C - Domantas Sabonis / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

This is a very good deal, but I would probably ditch the "keeps their youth" part if Sabonis is incoming. I still like Scoot and Shaedon, but I'm trying to win with that frontcourt sooner rather than later (when Sabonis ages and Deni becomes a flight risk). I dunno if I call Phoenix about Booker, or what, but I'm looking for a tier one/two lead guard tout de suite. I've said elsewhere I have my doubts about Trae, but what if the team could also pull some shooters in? I dunno. I do know LaMelo is NOT a fit for this scenario.

[Tim Lehrbach]

Interestingly -- and quietly -- Camara becomes eligible for an extension this summer. What is the most the Blazers can offer him?

[BlazersBroncos]

Another Sabonis idea where we attempt to keep all the youth -

PDX OUT - Ayton, Simons, RWIII, Murray, #10, lower 2029 FRP
PDX IN - Sabonis, Cole, KCP

SAC OUT - Sabonis
SAC IN - Ayton, Murray, #10, #16, lower 2029 FRP

ORL OUT - KCP, Cole, #16
ORL IN - Simons

PDX goes win-now but keeps their youth.
ORL gets the guard scorer they need while cutting a year off Cole / KCP.
SAC gets a huge EC, reunites the Murray's, 2 decent FRP and a future FRP.

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
F - Toumani Camara / Matisse Thybulle / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Jabari Walker JR
C - Domantas Sabonis / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

This is a very good deal, but I would probably ditch the "keeps their youth" part if Sabonis is incoming. I still like Scoot and Shaedon, but I'm trying to win with that frontcourt sooner rather than later (when Sabonis ages and Deni becomes a flight risk). I dunno if I call Phoenix about Booker, or what, but I'm looking for a tier one/two lead guard tout de suite. I've said elsewhere I have my doubts about Trae, but what if the team could also pull some shooters in? I dunno. I do know LaMelo is NOT a fit for this scenario.

I disagree. I think adding a vet like Sabonis will help the youth hit their ceilings. Scoot made huge strides from Y1 to Y2, granted Y1 was a total disaster. If he makes comparable strides from Y2 to Y3 your looking at a competent, very young starting PG. As for Sharpe - I am of mind that a guy that can call his own number on the peremiter is totally needed to compliment Sabonis, Camara and Deni. I like the idea of adding a win-now guy while retaining internal development. It is recency bias but these teams that have gone out, cashed in all their chips for win-now guys and assumed the team would instantly gel have not been doing well as of late.

Get a guy like Sabonis using picks and continue to lean on internal development would be my play. You have a playoff caliber team where the upside is still there due to development potential w/ Scoot, Sharpe, DC. On top of that you have the MIL picks / swaps in a few years that could be extremley valuable. If the team develops well your in a spot a few years down the road where you might be adding lotto talents despite being a PO team, and obviously those picks could be cashed for win-now guys if we feel the squad is a player or two away from immediate contention.

And all that being said - I dont think Scoot, Sharpe and picks gets you Booker. I think Trae is fools gold as well, barely above that LaMelo caliber of empty stats (And the defense is Simons caliber - I hate paying 40M+ to 2 guys in Trae and Sabonis that are not good defenders).

[Walton1one]

Interestingly -- and quietly -- Camara becomes eligible for an extension this summer. What is the most the Blazers can offer him?

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

He has two years left on his contract ($2.2 million and $2.4 million) and is eligible to sign a four-year, $89.2 million extension starting on July 20.

[DusterBuster]

Interestingly -- and quietly -- Camara becomes eligible for an extension this summer. What is the most the Blazers can offer him?

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

He has two years left on his contract ($2.2 million and $2.4 million) and is eligible to sign a four-year, $89.2 million extension starting on July 20.

I would say they should jump on that now, if he takes any more steps in his game, which I still think he has some levels he can, that number is gonna jump into the 100 mils fast.

[BlazersBroncos]

Interestingly -- and quietly -- Camara becomes eligible for an extension this summer. What is the most the Blazers can offer him?

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

He has two years left on his contract ($2.2 million and $2.4 million) and is eligible to sign a four-year, $89.2 million extension starting on July 20.

I would say they should jump on that now, if he takes any more steps in his game, which I still think he has some levels he can, that number is gonna jump into the 100 mils fast.

Agreed. Lock him up now. The guy is too driven to not keep developing. Jaden McDaniels makes 25M AV. Getting Camara for 21-22M AV long term would be a great value.

The cap projections are -

25/26 155M - 22M AV = 14%
26/27 170M - 22M AV = 13%
27/28 187M - 22M AV = 12%

Its a hell of a deal to get him on that number IMO.

[DusterBuster]

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

I would say they should jump on that now, if he takes any more steps in his game, which I still think he has some levels he can, that number is gonna jump into the 100 mils fast.

Agreed. Lock him up now. The guy is too driven to not keep developing. Jaden McDaniels makes 25M AV. Getting Camara for 21-22M AV long term would be a great value.

The cap projections are -

25/26 155M - 22M AV = 14%
26/27 170M - 22M AV = 13%
27/28 187M - 22M AV = 12%

Its a hell of a deal to get him on that number IMO.

Yep. It's not a one way decision tho, Camara may want to bet on himself and not accept an extension yet knowing full well if he keeps developing, he will be in line for a bigger payday.

[Tim Lehrbach]

Interestingly -- and quietly -- Camara becomes eligible for an extension this summer. What is the most the Blazers can offer him?

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

He has two years left on his contract ($2.2 million and $2.4 million) and is eligible to sign a four-year, $89.2 million extension starting on July 20.

ESPN surely knows a lot more than I do, but I am uncertain this is perfectly accurate. Seems close, at least.

The CBA provides, for Veteran Extensions:

Subject to Article II, Section 7, a Player Contract extended in accordance with this Section 7(a) (other than an Extension entered into in connection with a trade pursuant to Section 8(e)(2) below or a Designated Veteran Player Extension) may, in the first Salary Cap Year covered by the
extended term, provide for a Salary, excluding Incentive Compensation, of up to the greater of: (A) one hundred forty percent (140%) of the Regular Salary in the last Salary Cap Year covered by the original term of the Contract; or (B) one hundred forty percent (140%) of the Estimated Average Player Salary for the Salary Cap Year in which the Extension is signed

Obviously, "140% of the Estimated Average Player Salary for the last Salary Cap Year in which the Extension is signed" is greater than 140% of Camara's final year, so we'll go with that.

The only information I could find about average salary puts it at (we'll round up) $12 million for this season, up about $2 million from the year before. If we assume Camara's extension is signed during the next NBA season (after the calendar turns over on or around July 1), we'll generously assume another $2 million hike to $14 million.

This puts Camara's maximum first-year salary at $19.6 million. Give him the maximum raise per year of 5% as governed by:

For each Salary Cap Year covered by an Extension after the first Salary Cap Year covered by the extended term, the player’s: (A) Salary, excluding Incentive Compensation, may increase or decrease in relation to the previous Salary Cap Year’s Salary, excluding Incentive Compensation, by no more than five percent (5%) of the Salary for the first Salary Cap Year covered by the extended term of the Contract; and (B) Regular Salary may increase or decrease in relation to the previous Salary Cap Year’s Regular Salary by no more than five percent (5%) of the Regular Salary for the first Salary Cap Year covered by the Contract.

The resulting contract, which is admittedly just a guess, looks like this:
2026-2027: $19.6 million
2027-2028: $20.58 million
2028-2029: $21.61 million
2029-2030: $22.69 million
Total: $84.48 million

That's a gulf of almost $5 million. However, ESPN may have better information than my guess as to what the Estimated Average Player Salary will be for 2025-2026, when Camara would sign his extension. EAPS could be higher, resulting in their higher projection of his potential extension.

So, after all that, maybe they're right.

Another possibility for Camara and the Blazers is a renegotiation and extension. Camara becomes eligible for this on 7/3/2026. However, renegotiation requires cap space. Teams seldom operate with cap space, but I suppose the Blazers could plan for this. Camara would have to wait another year to get his bag, but he could renegotiate his final year up to the amount of Portland's cap space and then get 8% raises on his extension. This potentially, but not probably, gets him a lot more money.

Ultimately, though, it comes down to this:

I would say they should jump on that now, if he takes any more steps in his game, which I still think he has some levels he can, that number is gonna jump into the 100 mils fast.

Agreed. Lock him up now. The guy is too driven to not keep developing. Jaden McDaniels makes 25M AV. Getting Camara for 21-22M AV long term would be a great value.

The cap projections are -

25/26 155M - 22M AV = 14%
26/27 170M - 22M AV = 13%
27/28 187M - 22M AV = 12%

Its a hell of a deal to get him on that number IMO.

Yep. It's not a one way decision tho, Camara may want to bet on himself and not accept an extension yet knowing full well if he keeps developing, he will be in line for a bigger payday.

$85-89 million is hella big money. If I was Camara I would 100% take it as fast as I can. There's no guarantee he sees it that way. His max, which we would all agree he is unlikely to earn, could more than double that -- but he wouldn't be able to sign that deal until July 2027 if the Blazers pick up his final option year (as they obviously would).

Getting his bag two years earlier may be worth a lot to Camara, especially because the ceiling on his potential earnings may be nowhere near his max.

I've come away from this exercise more confident than before that we'll see a deal done this summer.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I had one additional thought: if the Blazers somehow strike gold in the draft, they'll have themselves a helluva core in [rookie], Deni, Camara, Clingan, Scoot, and maybe Sharpe (though he may be expendable for this hypothetical). It could be worth going the cap space route in 2026 if it means the opportunity to renegotiate and extend with Camara and Deni. They'd need to get significantly under the cap to have room to hand both players massive raises, but if these guys are the real deal and flexibility is not needed for other reasons, this could be one way to operate. It's not the sexy scenario where you use trades or cap space to bring in exciting new players to add to the existing ones, but locking up these two for the next half-decade, while continuing to build a team with more draftees and signings around the edges, might be smart roster management.

I know cap space plans rarely come to fruition. Not only do you have to manage the payroll with discipline, but there are substantial opportunity costs: options declined, free agents not signed, trades not accepted. You forgo a lot to get to cap space. I'm not saying this is a likely or even the wisest route. But it's an option on the table.

I am not going to crunch the numbers on this just yet. However, ditching the last two years of Grant's contract OR letting Sharpe go would be mandatory, at a minimum. In that case, why not both? I have no idea whether there is a player out there meeting these criteria, but I would explore a trade that sends Grant and Sharpe out and returns a solid player making less than Grant's $34.2 million in 2026-2027 to reduce the payroll while modestly upgrading the team. Losing Sharpe is a major risk, I admit, but suppose that player is a solid starting guard or sixth man, and further suppose two out of Scoot, Clingan, the 2025 draftee, and the 2026 draftee become long-term starters. Lots of ifs, lots of variables. Again, not saying this path is likely. But there is a plausible scenario under which this team features a team-controlled core through the end of the decade featuring:

Scoot
Deni
Camara
Clingan
2025 draft pick
2026 draft pick
[Grant/Sharpe trade return]

I know this doesn't look as exciting as all these guys, plus Sharpe, plus a big free agent signing. I am here to say that scenario is not probable. Under those circumstances, you likely lose Deni sooner, you are still paying Grant, and Sharpe's extension or RFA match eats up any remaining room under the tax.

I'm bullish on Deni and don't want to see him go. Unsexy to make all our big moves on the premise of just a few more years of Deni? Sure. Smart? Possibly.

This is all very convoluted, and it would take a detailed plan with lots of number crunching to game out. Maybe I'll get to this sometime.

[Sinobas]

Interestingly -- and quietly -- Camara becomes eligible for an extension this summer. What is the most the Blazers can offer him?

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

He has two years left on his contract ($2.2 million and $2.4 million) and is eligible to sign a four-year, $89.2 million extension starting on July 20.

Blazers should definitely offer that. GMs are going to be salivating over Camara.

[Blazinaway]

Interestingly -- and quietly -- Camara becomes eligible for an extension this summer. What is the most the Blazers can offer him?

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

He has two years left on his contract ($2.2 million and $2.4 million) and is eligible to sign a four-year, $89.2 million extension starting on July 20.

Blazers should definitely offer that. GMs are going to be salivating over Camara.

I get confused on extensions, if we did extend him for that 89 mil do we pay him the 2.2 and 2.4 mil next two years and then the 4-yr extension kicks in? which effectively would lock him in for 6 yrs total?

[Wizenheimer]

Interestingly -- and quietly -- Camara becomes eligible for an extension this summer. What is the most the Blazers can offer him?

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

He has two years left on his contract ($2.2 million and $2.4 million) and is eligible to sign a four-year, $89.2 million extension starting on July 20.

ESPN surely knows a lot more than I do, but I am uncertain this is perfectly accurate. Seems close, at least.

The CBA provides, for Veteran Extensions:

Subject to Article II, Section 7, a Player Contract extended in accordance with this Section 7(a) (other than an Extension entered into in connection with a trade pursuant to Section 8(e)(2) below or a Designated Veteran Player Extension) may, in the first Salary Cap Year covered by the
extended term, provide for a Salary, excluding Incentive Compensation, of up to the greater of: (A) one hundred forty percent (140%) of the Regular Salary in the last Salary Cap Year covered by the original term of the Contract; or (B) one hundred forty percent (140%) of the Estimated Average Player Salary for the Salary Cap Year in which the Extension is signed

Obviously, "140% of the Estimated Average Player Salary for the last Salary Cap Year in which the Extension is signed" is greater than 140% of Camara's final year, so we'll go with that.

The only information I could find about average salary puts it at (we'll round up) $12 million for this season, up about $2 million from the year before. If we assume Camara's extension is signed during the next NBA season (after the calendar turns over on or around July 1), we'll generously assume another $2 million hike to $14 million.

This puts Camara's maximum first-year salary at $19.6 million. Give him the maximum raise per year of 5% as governed by:

For each Salary Cap Year covered by an Extension after the first Salary Cap Year covered by the extended term, the player’s: (A) Salary, excluding Incentive Compensation, may increase or decrease in relation to the previous Salary Cap Year’s Salary, excluding Incentive Compensation, by no more than five percent (5%) of the Salary for the first Salary Cap Year covered by the extended term of the Contract; and (B) Regular Salary may increase or decrease in relation to the previous Salary Cap Year’s Regular Salary by no more than five percent (5%) of the Regular Salary for the first Salary Cap Year covered by the Contract.

The resulting contract, which is admittedly just a guess, looks like this:
2026-2027: $19.6 million
2027-2028: $20.58 million
2028-2029: $21.61 million
2029-2030: $22.69 million
Total: $84.48 million

That's a gulf of almost $5 million. However, ESPN may have better information than my guess as to what the Estimated Average Player Salary will be for 2025-2026, when Camara would sign his extension. EAPS could be higher, resulting in their higher projection of his potential extension.

So, after all that, maybe they're right.

Another possibility for Camara and the Blazers is a renegotiation and extension. Camara becomes eligible for this on 7/3/2026. However, renegotiation requires cap space. Teams seldom operate with cap space, but I suppose the Blazers could plan for this. Camara would have to wait another year to get his bag, but he could renegotiate his final year up to the amount of Portland's cap space and then get 8% raises on his extension. This potentially, but not probably, gets him a lot more money.

Ultimately, though, it comes down to this:

Agreed. Lock him up now. The guy is too driven to not keep developing. Jaden McDaniels makes 25M AV. Getting Camara for 21-22M AV long term would be a great value.

The cap projections are -

25/26 155M - 22M AV = 14%
26/27 170M - 22M AV = 13%
27/28 187M - 22M AV = 12%

Its a hell of a deal to get him on that number IMO.

Yep. It's not a one way decision tho, Camara may want to bet on himself and not accept an extension yet knowing full well if he keeps developing, he will be in line for a bigger payday.

$85-89 million is hella big money. If I was Camara I would 100% take it as fast as I can. There's no guarantee he sees it that way. His max, which we would all agree he is unlikely to earn, could more than double that -- but he wouldn't be able to sign that deal until July 2027 if the Blazers pick up his final option year (as they obviously would).

Getting his bag two years earlier may be worth a lot to Camara, especially because the ceiling on his potential earnings may be nowhere near his max.

I've come away from this exercise more confident than before that we'll see a deal done this summer.

good work TL. I have a 'wait a minute' question about something though. That's the 5% step raises instead of the standard 8% step raises for Bird Rights players. But maybe that's explained in definition because this summer, Camara/Blazers won't have full Bird rights....just Early Bird Rights since this is only his 2nd season. Maybe that's where the 5%-instead-of-8% comes in

[Wizenheimer]

Here is what ESPN mentioned about Camara extension

Blazers should definitely offer that. GMs are going to be salivating over Camara.

I get confused on extensions, if we did extend him for that 89 mil do we pay him the 2.2 and 2.4 mil next two years and then the 4-yr extension kicks in? which effectively would lock him in for 6 yrs total?

good question....and I'm not clear on the answer

mainly because of guarantees and options. Next season, Camara's deal is non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed on 7/20/25. Now, my assumption is that in order to get an extension, Camara would have to be under contract. So, I'd further assume that the Blazers would have to guarantee 2025-26 before negotiating an extension

however, Portland has a team option on the final (4th) year of Camara's contract; deadline is 6/29/26. So, I would wonder if, by mutual agreement, that final year of Camara's current contract is cancelled and his extension would start next July. 2026 instead of July 2027. I'm sure Camara would like to be earning 18M a year more one year earlier

but i do not know how the CBA would treat a situation like this