2025 Draft Thread - Part 2

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Edgecombe fouled way too often. I don't see that in his scouting reports. Why not?

[willbcocks]

I liked Haugh better than Condon, but I see he's going back to school.

[doclinkin]

So... leaving aside 1 & 2, where I think none of us would trade down, what would *your* sense of the best move, nate?

&, as I'm sure you noticed, there's no spot where I pick Ace Bailey -- what's your take on the Ace question...?

I'm not as down on Ace as Dat2U and others are. Yeah, I see the flaws and I definitely have him below Harper for those reasons, but I wouldn't drop him into a tier below Edgecomb and Johnson. Even with his flaws, he looks like a pretty sure bet to be a sturdier, better-defending version of Michael Porter Jr. that can play power forward full time. That's still a real good 2-way player.

There's spacing, and then there's SPACING. Having a guy play power forward who has such a quick, high release from 3-point range can do wonders for a team's offense. And there's still the potential for him developing into a first-rate primary option scorer if he tightens his handle.

Interesting since I see him as a supersize guard more than PF. A 6'10" guard is a similar mismatch to an outside shooting PF. Especially since he shoots better when guarded. Lines the shot up over the heads of 2-guards who chase him out there. He played in the front court by necessity since Rutgers failed to build a team around the two stars. Ace willingly put in the work, with multiple blocks and carrying a heavy rebounding load. but he's still slim and going to be for a while. You are who you guard. Ace can D-up one-on-one against players 1-3 at the NBA level. Against front court beasts he's going to get muscled. Wiry strong and athletic as he is, it's just physics, he won't stop the heavies down low. But as a guard he's a hell of a rebounder and shotblocker.

Much as I appreciate the work he puts in and often agree, my rare quibble with Dat's ratings are that they often seem to look at where a player is right now, more than accounting for age and forecasting any growth. Younger players are going to look like knuckleheads at times. Ace looked lost at times, trying to do too much since that has been his role in the past. He wasn't on stacked teams like Monteverde in highschool like Flagg/Queen/Asa. Ace was a solo artist and star going 1-on-5, and winning. But kids grow. Since I've been tracking down footage of Queen' s junior year, you see at times DQ was loafing or distracted on court, or overdribbling and all. He's better now, after sharing the court with stars, and he's a year and a half older than Ace. Two years older than Flagg. That's a lot of ball, played at a high level for high school. Give Ace the same experience and see how he turns out.

This draft class is full of babies. Players who have been ID'ed for a long time as being highly talented. Still, other than the two French kids, only Flagg, Fears, and Maluach are younger than Ace. In the past, my bias was towards older players since you could see the track record of their development. I could always pick the productive 2nd rounders. But the lotto was a mystery. Until I wondered why earlier picks outperformed them over time, and read the studies that showed the younger a player is when they produce, the higher their upside. Yeah Ace struggled towards the end of the season, but his mid year efforts put up notable numbers, even when Harper was out. Those are the games I'm looking at when I'm evaluating him. Not late in the year when the team was already effectively eliminated from tourney play.

Does he have flaws? Absolutely. I think Ace is better as a man-on defender than in team defense. Gets caught ball watching. But nobody is going to try to hunt switches to face him. And on this team we are long on switchable outside defenders. Ace/Key/Bilal/Sarr mix and match. Its going to be tough to back up far enough to score over that kind of length.

Likewise I think Ace does have tunnel vision on offense. He doesn't turn the ball over much because he doesn't hold it long enough to pass, he tries to score immediately. On this team that is not a bad thing. When I picture him fitting in on the team its as a replacement for Jordan Poole. In that respect we suddenly go from a bad defender to a decent point of attack defender. A short guard to a tall one. An over dribbler to one who will shoot as soon as he touches it. A good point guard can work with that. Let him run off screens as a Reggie Miller, Rip Hamilton type. Cut back door to score over peoples heads. We just need to get him a nice screening passer with a bit of muscle. When I read the PIF draft iterations above the one I was missing was:

3. Ace
18. Sorber

Nate cited many of the reasons I am high on Sorber. He's solid, in every respect. Defense, physicality, size; and also all of the veteran skills: spacing, angles, passing, screen assists, sticky picks, how to get away with moving screens, etc. Surround Ace with smarts and muscle and he is free to let his talent dictate how he plays. The kid is nice with the highlights. Clearly loves the game. Put him between savvy players like Bub and Sorber and he will shine.

Or even:

3. Ace and
18. Collin Murray Boyles.

I think Boyles will measure small in standing reach even if his wingspan is pterodactyl. Plus I think he will still have questions about his jumpshot. So he won't look pretty in workouts. Defense doesn't stand out in two-on-two or drills. I think Murray-Boyles slides a bit. While Sorber goes earlier.

But CMB is the smartest defender in this draft. Even over Flagg. Plays bigger than his reach. He's going to have a long career playing on winning teams. Put Ace next to CMB and any defensive BBIQ issues are solved. On offense CMB is remarkably efficient for an undersized guy. With Sarr and Ace and all bombing away from outside, CMB can play the hub of the wheel and clean up underneath with putbacks, or quick passes to Bilal on the back door cut.

That way we recruit both raw talent and upgrade our smarts & cunning all at once. Let Ace struggle to figure it out, we can use the losses. At some point I think his talent wins out.

[gesa2]

If we wind up at 5 or 6 (or potentially even at 4), I'd be really intrigued by Malauch. Yes, he's an enormous project, but our team doesn't seem to be daunted by enormous projects (i.e., Coulibaly, Sarr, George, Johnson, and to a lesser extent, Carrington and Tristan), and I have this mind's-eye vision of opposing teams really needing to be able to hit their 3's, because between Sarr and Malauch, they're absolutely stonewalled at the rim.

Especially if Sarr can rotate between center and power-forward, I'm also seeing a three-headed big man combo of Sarr, Malauch, and Tristan. The latter's an offensive dynamo, and as he'd always be on the court with Sarr or Malauch, that might cover for his just being average on defense and rebounding.

Our rim protection would be strong but neither of Sarr or Maluach are good defensive rebounders at least yet which worries me

[Northwest Roddy]

Doclinkin , what do you see the starting line up as if we draft Ace?

[doclinkin]

Doclinkin , what do you see the starting line up as if we draft Ace?

Early we’d play vets mixed in with rookies to showcase them for trades. Listen to offers to sell Poole mid season. If not then for development purposes slide him to the bench.

2nd half of the season with a mind to preserve the tank and develop youth, I’d love to see:

Bub — floor general. Ideally with an Improved 3.
Ace — gunner. Attack mode.
Bilal — lob threat. back door attack. Improved dribble drive. Improved corner 3.
CMB/Sorber — pivot position. Glue guy. Utility big. Screens pick and roll. rebounds and passing.
Sarr. — stretch 4/5. Hopefully with a more reliable 3.

With Kyshawn as supersub 1-4. Getting heavy minutes.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Here's a review of the latest ESPN BIG BOARD Top 100 prospects...

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

I'm glad to see doc arguing for Ace -- kid is obviously a massive talent!

[dobrojim]

If we wind up at 5 or 6 (or potentially even at 4), I'd be really intrigued by Malauch. Yes, he's an enormous project, but our team doesn't seem to be daunted by enormous projects (i.e., Coulibaly, Sarr, George, Johnson, and to a lesser extent, Carrington and Tristan), and I have this mind's-eye vision of opposing teams really needing to be able to hit their 3's, because between Sarr and Malauch, they're absolutely stonewalled at the rim.

Especially if Sarr can rotate between center and power-forward, I'm also seeing a three-headed big man combo of Sarr, Malauch, and Tristan. The latter's an offensive dynamo, and as he'd always be on the court with Sarr or Malauch, that might cover for his just being average on defense and rebounding.

Assuming he's a project which is reasonable, that fits our timeline. We cannot afford to let the Nix have our 2026 FRP.
And eventually you need someone who can guard the KP's, Allen/Mobley and KATs of the league.
And he's young so he figures to be much better in years 3-5 than he'll be in 1-2 years.

[tontoz]

If we get the 3rd pick I'd bet my car we pick Ace. Their previous two picks in the top 10 were Bilal and Sarr so they have a type.

Ace doesn't have enough strength to play the 4 yet but he probably will eventually at least part time. He has already filled out noticably compared to his senior year in HS. He is a good shot blocker and rebounder so he would be fine at the 4.

With Ace it is easy to focus too much on his weaknesses, which were in full display over his first 10 games. However his dramatic improvement in games 10-20 makes me think he is coachable.

[dobrojim]

Ace is also young for his draft class.

[doclinkin]

I'm glad to see doc arguing for Ace -- kid is obviously a massive talent!

Thing is, I am looking for the highest ceiling prospects in the draft, not necessarily the ones that produce consistent stats. I don’t even mind inconsistency so long as there are spikes of brilliance. If the brilliance is combined with youth then you hope to be able to develop the kid to consistently reach those high watermarks. First, they have to show they can do it, then you can encourage the habits for them to do it reliably.

Of course it’s excellent if you have a combination of both youth and excellence and consistency. That’s Cooper Flagg who has probably the highest floor of any player in this draft. Those players are necessarily rare. That’s a Kevin Durant type. Sustained brilliance times youth.

To me the high ceiling prospects in this draft are Khaman Maluatch, Ace Bailey, probably Noa Essengue, VJ Edgecombe If his measurements don’t handicap him too much, Jeremiah Fears if he can develop a three-point shot. And Carter Bryant.

Of course, mental aptitude is key to a player actually reaching that top potential. A player who shows that they are instinctively excellent at understanding the game and reacting to the moment sort of will have a good career In the league. Guys like Jace Richardson, and Dylan Harper have lived the game since they were babies. Basketball is their first language so they have a headstart on other players and will produce quicker.

Someone like Cooper Flagg has such a Headstart on other guys that it makes you wonder if he will continue developing or if he simply jumped out to an early lead. The bet is that he gets even smarter as he gains experience and strength.

But he’s never gonna be as tall as the kid from South Sudan, who has developed by leaps and bounds in the four years since he first touched the basketball. As always, the best players in this draft won’t go in order or even in the top 6 necessarily. But this year in particular, I don’t mind swinging for the fences since it actually helps us develop talent if we lose more than win this year. Give me all of the upside guys, until we catch a star, then I can fill in with role-players later and in future drafts.

[closg00]

If we can take Bilal at 7, we can potentially take Ace at 3-5.

Another project (Maluach) interests me as-well, at some point we need a beast on the block during the Wemby era.

At-least the board has gotten on-board with accepting our possible, or maybe even likely fate of falling outside the top 2 picks, but “there’s a chance” **Jim Carey voice

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm glad to see doc arguing for Ace -- kid is obviously a massive talent!

Thing is, I am looking for the highest ceiling prospects in the draft, not necessarily the ones that produce consistent stats. I don’t even mind inconsistency so long as there are spikes of brilliance. If the brilliance is combined with youth, then you hope to be able to develop the kid to consistently reach that high watermark. First, they have to show they can do it, then you can encourage the habits for them to do it reliably.

Of course it’s excellent if you have a combination of both youth and excellence and consistency. that’s Cooper Flagg who has probably the highest floor of any player in this draft. Those players are necessarily rare. That’s a Kevin Durant type coming out.

To me the high ceiling prospects in this draft are Khaman Maluatch, Ace Bailey, probably Noa Essengue, VJ Edgecombe If his measurements don’t handicap him too much, Jeremiah Fears if he can develop a three-point shot. And Carter Bryant

Of course, mental aptitude is key to a player, actually reaching that top potential. A player who shows that they are instinctively excellent at understanding the game and reacting to the moment sort of will have a good career In the league. Guys like Jace Richardson, and Dylan Harper have lived the game since they were babies. Basketball is their first language so they have a headstart on other players and will produce quicker.

Someone like Cooper Flagg has such a Headstart on other guys that it makes you wonder if he will continue developing or if he simply jumped out to an early lead. The bet is that he gets even smarter as he gains experience and strength.

But he’s never gonna be as tall as the kid from South Sudan, who has developed by leaps and bounds in the four years since he first touched the basketball. As always, the best players in this draft won’t go in order or even in the top 6 necessarily. But this year in particular, I don’t mind swinging for the fences since it actually helps us develop talent if we lose more than win this year. Give me all of the upside guys, especially early, then I can fill in with role-players later and in future drafts.

Yeah I still have Ace solidly at 3. His combination of age, positional size, defensive and offensive potential is too much to pass up IMO. Plus I’m just not sold on any of the next tier of VJ/Tre/Maluach/Queen. In fact my 4 & 5 spots would be pure upside swings at Bryant & Essengue. Then I’d probably have VJ & Maluach.

[payitforward]

I have a dream: Cooper Flagg, Thomas Sorber, Yaxel Lendeborg.

It's a good dream.

[payitforward]

I have another dream: Dylan Harper, trade 18 to the Nets for 26 & 27 where we take Danny Wolf & Johni Broome. Followed by ... dang! I woke up before we got to #40....

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Watch on YouTube

Not really about the draft, but they talk some good info on Doc's guy Folgueiras.

[Jay81]

Add the bucks as another team that will be in the mix for a top 5 pick next year

[Northwest Roddy]

Doclinkin , what do you see the starting line up as if we draft Ace?

Early we’d play vets mixed in with rookies to showcase them for trades. Listen to offers to sell Poole mid season. If not then for development purposes slide him to the bench.

2nd half of the season with a mind to preserve the tank and develop youth, I’d love to see:

Bub — floor general. Ideally with an Improved 3.
Ace — gunner. Attack mode.
Bilal — lob threat. back door attack. Improved dribble drive. Improved corner 3.
CMB/Sorber — pivot position. Glue guy. Utility big. Screens pick and roll. rebounds and passing.
Sarr. — stretch 4/5. Hopefully with a more reliable 3.

With Kyshawn as supersub 1-4. Getting heavy minutes.

Thanks. I like your vision.

[Hibachi_0]

Pretty interesting. Thought Edgecombe would be higher in this list. Concerning numbers by Ace and Tre (nothing we didn't knew, but concerning nonetheless).

Read on Twitter

In the replies there is the comparisona against '23 draft class (Bilal is ranked higher than any prospect this year).