Post Mortem #18 - Orlando Magic

[UcanUwill]

I think almost everyone expected first round exist, and that is what we got. Going into the season, they were projected as maybe 6th. best team in the East, right? Top 4 was seen to be Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Bucks, right outside top 4 was CAVS, then Indy and Magic. Not everything played out that way, but Magic were one of those teams that finished pretty much exactly where they were ranked.

Oh stop. Literally no one projected this to be a .500 team. No one. They were supposed to improve, not regress due to major injuries to all of their best players. As for the postseason, a second round appearance should have been possible, maybe even likely, because they would have been in the running for a top 4 seed. Not in the play-in.

yes, have to agree. team almost got home court last year and I thought they could vie for a top-4 spot this year before injuries.

East improved, team could have improved and still have worse record. People expected Magic to be better than last year, but not standings vise. We could agree their season was worse than expected from stats perspective, but ultinate standing was wete we saw them.

[ReggiesKnicks]

he’s pretty scrappy. I can see it. he’s a tough player

now it looks like you havent watched Young play.

I saw the kid come into TD Garden and steal a playoff game. cant say that for anyone on the magic

Also went into MSG and did the same, twice. People can complain about Young's style or antics, but he is incredibly tough and scrappy.

[tiderulz]

he’s pretty scrappy. I can see it. he’s a tough player

now it looks like you havent watched Young play.

I saw the kid come into TD Garden and steal a playoff game. cant say that for anyone on the magic

current team only 2nd year in playoffs and missing one of their top players. okay, sure. Young is scrappy and tough player. Try putting a post asking that opinion and see what the response is

[Jadoogar]

Weltman hasn’t made a trade of significance for this roster in 4 seasons.

He’s botched every draft pick that hasn’t been within the top 8 of a draft, and Orlando’s picks are at #16 and #25. I pray he trades them.

My expectations from him low. Huge moves need to be made to make this offense work and I don’t see him pulling it off in an offseason.

most picks outside the top 10 don't pan out, it's unfair to hold that against him.
He hit on Paolo, remember there was no consensus in the draft.
He absolutely nailed Franz. Suggs was kinda the obvious pick at the point but he still nailed it

[ForeverTFC]

Considering they were the 5th seed last season, taking the Cavs to 7 games, and the 3rd seed for the early portion of this season, even without Paolo? Uhh... yeah. No one in their right mind thinks this team performed to expectations.

I think almost everyone expected first round exist, and that is what we got. Going into the season, they were projected as maybe 6th. best team in the East, right? Top 4 was seen to be Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Bucks, right outside top 4 was CAVS, then Indy and Magic. Not everything played out that way, but Magic were one of those teams that finished pretty much exactly where they were ranked.

Oh stop. Literally no one projected this to be a .500 team. No one. They were supposed to improve, not regress due to major injuries to all of their best players. As for the postseason, a second round appearance should have been possible, maybe even likely, because they would have been in the running for a top 4 seed. Not in the play-in.

Maybe in your fantasy land. Did you call anyone who thought this would happen to begin the season a "hater"? When the Hawks went to the ECF, did you project them to make the finals the following year? Perhaps it's your forecasting abilities that you should question.

Did a lot of people project .500? No. But many projected them as a play-in team and first round fodder. Again, just because you refused to hear those people out doesn't mean they didn't exist.

[zero rings]

I would offer Paolo + stuff for Giannis in the offseason. Giannis doesn’t solve their shooting woes, but he’s so dominant as a scorer that he can probably brute force the Magic to a top 12ish offense. Combine that with a top 2 defense, and you’ve got a legitimate contender out East.

I just don’t believe you’re ever going to have an elite offense with Paolo as the focal point. He has some offensive skill, but he doesn’t dominate in the paint or at the 3 pt line, which means he’s losing the math battle. You simply cannot carry a modern NBA offense with a shot diet of contested middies, no matter how good you are at them.

Anyways, they’ll probably stand pat and hope the return of Suggs solves all their problems (it won’t).

[Duke4life831]

There are some big question marks with this team and that does include the Franz/Paolo duo (which I’m a fan of).

#1. They do need a significant overhaul of their guards. I’m a fan of Suggs as well, but using him and draft capital to get a more proven perimeter creator might be the move to make. I know Suggs shot the 3 well last year. But 3 of his 4 seasons he’s failed to shoot at least 33% from 3. You can’t build around 3 guys that can’t consistently shoot 3s.

#2. The Franz/Paolo situation. I want to see these two play in an offense with actual spacing around them, before I would make a move. Kris Dunn would’ve been their 2nd best 3pt shooter (behind Paolo) in these playoffs. Thats how bad their spacing was all season and in the playoffs. So I would like to see how they can operate with actual spacing.

But with that said, both Paolo and Franz aren’t threats with their shot. Both can create, but I rarely see action involving those two. It’s much much more of a Paolo’s turn, then Franz’s turn on offense. I don’t know if that’s out of necessity because the lack of spacing, or a lack of creativity from the coaching staff.

You would think, even if they both kind of struggle to be consistent 3pt threats. You can create some kind of action that involves 2 very mobile 6’10 guys that can handle, attack the basket, and are willing passers. Again I don’t know if there is a lack of duo play between those two because they both lack shooting and there is no shooting around them. So I would like to see them with some spacing around them to see if they can begin to use those two guys together as a matchup problem for defenses.

Because even if you surround them with shooters, if it’s still just a Paolo’s turn, now Franz’s turn. That kind of kills any advantage of having multiple 6’10 guys on the court together that can create.

But ya I think this off-season big time shake up is needed. Give Franz/Paolo at least one season together with legit NBA shooters and ideally a guard that can create. See what they can do together in that situation. Then I would make a decision on the Franz/Paolo duo next offseason based off of that.

[tsherkin]

But ya I think this off-season big time shake up is needed. Give Franz/Paolo at least one season together with legit NBA shooters and ideally a guard that can create. See what they can do together in that situation. Then I would make a decision on the Franz/Paolo duo next offseason based off of that.

I'm with this. They're both young enough that they still need a chance based on what they have actually already shown, and they definitely need more offensive support... both in terms of shooting ability and in offensive strategy. And then we'll see if that makes enough of a difference for them, and/or if they themselves are able to improve above and beyond environmental factors, etc.

A little patience makes sense, no question.

[Ice Man]

Because even if you surround them with shooters, if it’s still just a Paolo’s turn, now Franz’s turn.

As a Bulls' fan, having watched DeMar's turn, Zach's turn for 2 1/2 years, this sounds familiar. Which, unfortunately, is how you can get two highly talented players but only have an average offense, because neither makes the other better.

My question: Can this be solved with coaching? To answer that, I don't think it was at all possible with DeMar and Zach. Old dogs, new tricks, and all that. Those guys long ago became who they are. Now, Paolo and Franz are much younger ... but still, I do wonder.

[Duke4life831]

Because even if you surround them with shooters, if it’s still just a Paolo’s turn, now Franz’s turn.

As a Bulls' fan, having watched DeMar's turn, Zach's turn for 2 1/2 years, this sounds familiar. Which, unfortunately, is how you can get two highly talented players but only have an average offense, because neither makes the other better.

My question: Can this be solved with coaching? To answer that, I don't think it was at all possible with DeMar and Zach. Old dogs, new tricks, and all that. Those guys long ago became who they are. Now, Paolo and Franz are much younger ... but still, I do wonder.

Ya the Franz/Paolo duo on paper has a great foundation to build off of. They’re both young. So you’re not trying to get two established vet stars to change their games to fit. They seem to really enjoy playing with each other. No bad body language between the two, when you watch them they just seem like they enjoy playing with each other. Both have shown to be willing passers. Both are 6’10 wings that are mobile and can create on ball.

You would think some coach out there can come up with actions they can involve both guys to create mismatches.

I don’t know if ORL hasn’t really done that yet because there is just zero spacing for them to work with. Or the coaches just aren’t creative enough. Or if it’s just even though they’re 6’10 on ball creative guys. Both having a lack of shooting just makes any action between the two, easy to defend.

But ya the Paolo’s turn now Franz’s turn needs to evolve.

[ForeverTFC]

Because even if you surround them with shooters, if it’s still just a Paolo’s turn, now Franz’s turn.

As a Bulls' fan, having watched DeMar's turn, Zach's turn for 2 1/2 years, this sounds familiar. Which, unfortunately, is how you can get two highly talented players but only have an average offense, because neither makes the other better.

My question: Can this be solved with coaching? To answer that, I don't think it was at all possible with DeMar and Zach. Old dogs, new tricks, and all that. Those guys long ago became who they are. Now, Paolo and Franz are much younger ... but still, I do wonder.

Someone smarter can correct me, but I don't particularly see either guy as great creators for others. It's clear to me that both need a playmaker alongside them to take on some of that play-making burden. If you bring that guy in, is there enough usage to give to all of them to make the addition effective?

[tsherkin]

Because even if you surround them with shooters, if it’s still just a Paolo’s turn, now Franz’s turn.

As a Bulls' fan, having watched DeMar's turn, Zach's turn for 2 1/2 years, this sounds familiar. Which, unfortunately, is how you can get two highly talented players but only have an average offense, because neither makes the other better.

My question: Can this be solved with coaching? To answer that, I don't think it was at all possible with DeMar and Zach. Old dogs, new tricks, and all that. Those guys long ago became who they are. Now, Paolo and Franz are much younger ... but still, I do wonder.

Which was a little weird, because Demar hit the league attacking off-ball a lot more before his handle and J developed. They just aren't natural playmakers, either. It's like KD: he produces a decent number of assists, but his vision, reaction time and passing proficiency really aren't all that amazing, which inhibits his actual utility as a playmaking force. I think it's the same for those guys.

We'll see what it is with Franz and Paolo. They both drive an okay amount (nothing staggering, though), so you'd think that they could get some mutually-beneficial action out of it. Paolo definitely needs to be the screener in the PnR a lot more, too.

[JasonStern]

I thought their rebuild went smoothly.
A lot of young talent. Wouldn't rock the boat too much. Definitely wouldn't overpay for a missing piece until you spend more time evaluating the youth you have.
The Simons to ORL trades on the trade board have been beaten to death. And I'm all for POR keeping Ant. But watching some of this series, I get it. A score-first combo guard with range would really open up the offense.
Fun young team.

[bisme37]

Their star players are 22 and 23. Gotta take the ups and downs and be patient with learning and development. That's the process that leads to success.

I think an area for development is just trusting their teammates and making those guys better. I understand there aren't a lot of players there who are good shooters/scorers, but I think there's always an opportunity to make your teammates better, even if you can't make them great. Giving them the ball a little more throughout games could lead to increased confidence and better play from unexpected sources.

And then just doing the little things that win games, understanding different defenses that teams throw at you in a playoff run, and keeping composure in key moments. You don't just get out of bed knowing how to do this stuff. It's hard and takes time, and you gotta take some lumps along the way.

Team lacks shooting, but I don't think they should be in a rush to do anything drastic. In a few years with the right supporting cast, the Magic could be today's Celtics.

[eyriq]

#1. They do need a significant overhaul of their guards. I’m a fan of Suggs as well, but using him and draft capital to get a more proven perimeter creator might be the move to make. I know Suggs shot the 3 well last year. But 3 of his 4 seasons he’s failed to shoot at least 33% from 3. You can’t build around 3 guys that can’t consistently shoot 3s.

This is where I've landed as well. Suggs sits in our 3rd option salary slot and comes with a lot of red flags about his fit and availability. I doubt the front office will make this move but it's THE bold move to balance our backcourt.

[eyriq]

Keep the FO, keep the coach, performed worse (due to injuries), improving team

This was my vote

[Duke4life831]

#1. They do need a significant overhaul of their guards. I’m a fan of Suggs as well, but using him and draft capital to get a more proven perimeter creator might be the move to make. I know Suggs shot the 3 well last year. But 3 of his 4 seasons he’s failed to shoot at least 33% from 3. You can’t build around 3 guys that can’t consistently shoot 3s.

This is where I've landed as well. Suggs sits in our 3rd option salary slot and comes with a lot of red flags about his fit and availability. I doubt the front office will make this move but it's THE bold move to balance our backcourt.

Ya and to be clear. If just Suggs and one of Paolo/Franz become consistent shooters. That core 3 becomes very easy to build around.

Get an offensive minded guard. Get a rim protecting big who can spread the floor. Boom that team takes off. Between Suggs, Franz and a defensive 5. There is plenty of defense to at least make the starting 5 solid defensively. And if you have a couple defensive guys off the bench, you can be a top 5 defense. Hide the offensive guard on the worst perimeter player, Paolo on the worst front court guy and you so will have a ton of size.

But the question is. Can Suggs have a Derrick White level of progression as a shooter. Or is it going to be like Marcus Smart. Some seasons of flashes of being a consistent shooter, but it never actually becomes consistent.

And can Franz get rid of that hitch and start looking like the promising shooter from the first two seasons. Or can Paolo get to at least that LeBron level of most seasons hanging around that 35-36% are. That to go with his size, will be more than enough to keep defenses honest.

To me you need 2 positive outcomes out of those 3 situations.

[eyriq]

Love this team, and think they are in a solid spot moving forward, and are the best collection of young talent outside of SAS and OKC. They are in the same spot as Minny right before they made the Gobert trade, and hopefully their front office goes in.

I'm obviously keeping the front office who has proven to draft well, and signed KCP and other solid vets. I'm also keeping Mosely, but he has one more year before I start looking around. I still don't know what he is as a coach yet. I think both the front office and coaching have done an impeccable job instilling a winning, try hard, culture down there in ORL, and you have to respect that. Getting Wagners brother, signing champions like KCP and Joseph, and strong mentors like Harris and Ingles last year. To be #2 in defense, and to still finish 41-41 with all those missed games, as a young team, that was very impressive.

I personally think Paolo is the real deal, and is looking like the 3rd star of his decade with Ant and Wemby. I also think Franz is getting way too much hate, and think Magic fans are going to constantly hear the same arguments that Celtic's fans heard for years over Tatum and Brown. Oddly enough, I actually like the Magic guys more at this point in their careers, and think people are bugging if they want to break these guys up before they reach their prime years of 26+. These are legit 1st and 2nd options.

Ilove what I saw from Black this year and was pleasantly surprised by his passing skills. He is a modern guy who can do it all, and his stroke looks solid. I loved De Silva during the draft process, and he showed why in the early parts of the season when Paolo was out. He is just a smooth wing player, who has a silky stroke and niice ball skills. He looks to be a solid 6th man type going forward.

I think this year while not meeting expectations, answered all the questions that the FO and fans needed answered going forward. Howard is not that good, and got replaced by TDS and Black in the rotation. Goga can play, but only in certain matchups. Cole is not a part of this team, and isn't good enough of a scorer to justify his role. Suggs is incredible on D, a better Smart essentially, but his hustle and effort means he's going to always be a dude on the IR.

This team desperately needs shooting, in the worst way, and think they are in a solid spot to go and get it. They have their picks, and they have a player at ever salary spot you would want to make a move. Goga at 8 mil, Cole at 12, Isaac at 25, and Suggs at 30. I don't want to make the mistake of going for it too early with my 22 year old stars, but this team should def go big game hunting, and if not make trades to improve in the margins.

Isaac- WCJ
Paolo
Franz- Desilva
Black

I'm all for that group next year, and everyone else im trying to trade. The dream scenario is obviously getting Booker in the aftermath of the KD trade. Combining Suggs, Howard, and picks to bring in a legit guard that can shoot is priority #1, and again, i'm overpaying like crazy if I need to. Bane, Booker, Herro, Melo, Reaves, ect are the main dudes i'm gunning for. If not there are oter packages you can entertain.

I've been beatin the drum on the Anfernee Simons trade for a while now, it just makes too much sense money wise and from a team perspective. Same with Colin Sexton, and I think Magic and Utah are trading partners made in heaven right now. MAgic could use and trade for all their vets and think Colins, Sexton, and Clarkson should all be discussed.

People weren't happy in the MIA Heat thread when I suggested Duncan and 15 for Cole filler and 20, but I like that type of trade as well.

Grayson Allen from the Suns for Cole and Howard seems like solid value, maybe throw in a 2nd

Goga swapped to the Lakers for Gabe Vincent.

There are so many moves to be made to improve this team, the front office just has to stay busy. Ideally, Magic will go into the year with a lineup that looks like:

WCJ- Mo- Isaac
Paolo
Franz- Black- De Silva
Suggs- Allen
Simons- Vincent

Win 50 games, and still have the firepower to pull off another huge move if necessary. Still Top 5 in defense and probably around 12th in offense. Mosely will be retained baed off how he does in the post season that year, and if let go, that's when i'm looking for my championship level coach.

YKB

GREAT assessment. I'm in line with this thought process and evaluation. Most Magic fans can't see the forest for the trees and want to throw the baby out with the bathwater, but this is the objective take.

[thelead]

#1. They do need a significant overhaul of their guards. I’m a fan of Suggs as well, but using him and draft capital to get a more proven perimeter creator might be the move to make. I know Suggs shot the 3 well last year. But 3 of his 4 seasons he’s failed to shoot at least 33% from 3. You can’t build around 3 guys that can’t consistently shoot 3s.

This is where I've landed as well. Suggs sits in our 3rd option salary slot and comes with a lot of red flags about his fit and availability. I doubt the front office will make this move but it's THE bold move to balance our backcourt.

Ya and to be clear. If just Suggs and one of Paolo/Franz become consistent shooters. That core 3 becomes very easy to build around.

Get an offensive minded guard. Get a rim protecting big who can spread the floor. Boom that team takes off. Between Suggs, Franz and a defensive 5. There is plenty of defense to at least make the starting 5 solid defensively. And if you have a couple defensive guys off the bench, you can be a top 5 defense. Hide the offensive guard on the worst perimeter player, Paolo on the worst front court guy and you so will have a ton of size.

But the question is. Can Suggs have a Derrick White level of progression as a shooter. Or is it going to be like Marcus Smart. Some seasons of flashes of being a consistent shooter, but it never actually becomes consistent.

And can Franz get rid of that hitch and start looking like the promising shooter from the first two seasons. Or can Paolo get to at least that LeBron level of most seasons hanging around that 35-36% are. That to go with his size, will be more than enough to keep defenses honest.

To me you need 2 positive outcomes out of those 3 situations.

Suggs did not shoot the ball well this year but I put A LOT of that on his changed role as he was the #2 option while one of Franz and Paolo were out and then he became the #1 option when they both went down so he was WAY out of his natural #3 role feeding off of Paolo’s and Franz’ gravity. Shooting off the dribble and being the point of attack are not Suggs’ strong suit at this point of his career.

[Black Jack]

I don't like teams with two guys that replicate each other as leads unless they are really really compementary and versatile like the two Js in Boston.

So I might consider trading Franz or Paolo. They can probably get an elite package for either of those guys so has to be really planned out well to work.