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Political Roundtable Part XXXIV

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#601 » by AFM » Wed Apr 30, 2025 4:00 pm

Zonkerbl wrote: No matter how racist you are, you will appreciate someone who is sincere, and that's what Trump has in spades. He projects sincerity very, very effectively, because he is a professional con man and you have to be good at lying about how sincere you are to be at all successful in that vocation. But that doesn't mean that doubling down on what people don't like about you will turn people off. Trump doubles down on being a racist jerk all the time and it just makes people love him more. That is his version of integrity, which people LOVE.


Yeah I think it was Nick Mullen that said people confuse honesty with authenticity. Trump is absurdly dishonest while being maybe the most authentic politician to ever live.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#602 » by Kanyewest » Wed Apr 30, 2025 4:27 pm

Fairview4Life wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:All the economic growth in this country has been concentrated in the hands of the top 20% since Reagan.


Incomes were up above inflation for the bottom 20%, during Biden's term. People don't vote for Trump because of economic reasons.


I know a couple of Ukranian Americans who voted for Trump or at the very least didn't vote for Harris. They basically voted against their own country of origin's interest.

One of the voters primary interest was the Ukraine war yet could not bring herself to vote for Harris because Biden didn't do enough for Ukraine. Now she gets a candidate who will do even less for Ukraine.


The other person voted for Trump because he taught it would be easier for him to make money. At least I know that this person regrets his vote but it just goes to show that voters are acting against their own interest.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#603 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Apr 30, 2025 5:01 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Last week DOGE came and visited my agency, MCC. Up until that point we had felt pretty confident that the agency invented in 2004 by W to replace USAID would end up doing just that. But no, looks like DOGE is going to nuke MCC just like they did USAID.

The Trump administration is evil and fascist and the people who voted for him either support him fully, meaning they are evil, or are just wildly stupid. I have been extremely consistent about that the last several months, and as everything I predicted over the last 8 years has come true again and again and again I would just like to say I TOLD YOU SO. Trump and his supporters HATE AMERICA.

https://www.liberalcurrents.com/trump-alarmists-were-right-we-should-say-so/

Those of us who still truly love America are now forced to consider leaving it. It is time to exit this abusive relationship. It is time to seriously consider secession. Let's deport ourselves.

One way to do it quietly is to just start ignoring the Supreme Court. Set the laws you want and ignore any SCOTUS rulings against you, like the POTUS is doing. Let them send the army to enforce it. If they do, then you're justified in seceding and you will probably get an overwhelming majority of people in your state to vote in favor of it, if you want to go in that direction.

Assuming you get away with ignoring SCOTUS decisions the next big step is to stop sending tax revenue to the Trump dictatorship. That's a bigger step, you have to pass a law first saying all tax payments go through your state tax revenue system first and ignore the SCOTUS decision saying that's not constitutional (well, DUH!). Move the overton window over to making that acceptable and then the next step of halting payments to the fed treasury is a small one.

Keep incrementally taking steps to separate yourself from the GOP dictatorship until you are independent de facto if not de jure. During the entire time, start building a local militia to the greatest extent possible. And be obvious about it, brag about it. Foster a sense of patriotism in your home state citizens about it, so when the dictatorship attacks, it is an attack on them personally.

THAT is how you defeat Trumpism.


Interesting piece, I have an absolute litany of thoughts reading it.

#1 Incredibly sympathetic to the arguments, only pieces I got wrong during this era, and I really, really got them wrong, was simply assuming that the Republican Machine would roll over the Trump sort of virus in '15, and not allow him to infect their objectives, I never ever thought they'd let him seize the nomination in '15/'16 no matter how popular he was w/the base. They'd ignored the base on Roe for decades, took their votes, and then pushed policy goals that totally ----ed them over and over without a concern in the world. I never imagined they'd bend the knee and nominate him, I imagined he'd get taken out like Bernie eventually was in '16. The other piece I got wrong was I underestimated how wildly stupid and moronic voters were in '20....considering how blatantly obvious Trumps desire to hide how completely wrong he was on literally everything with Covid, how he basically had his fingerprints all over hundreds of thousands of votes, the fact that he was directly admitting he wanted the way deaths were reported to exclude covid, so the total's wouldn't look so ugly on the Hopkins board (and other media boards showing the rapidly metastasizing death #'s), the stupidity in the press conferences, he was so blatantly obviously full of ----, and desperately trying to hide what was happening because he rightly believed if the economy got shut down, and we treated covid seriously, he would get annihilated in the election, just like Hoover was in '32 by the Great Depression....I just assumed we'd have our first landslide since 1984 because republican or democrat, it was obvious who had totally botched this, and who had acted so purely in their own self-interest throughout 2020 while 10's and eventually 100's of thousands died (weighted towards Republican voters), and if Dem's in '06 and Obama in '08 had had a moderate wipeout of Republicans responsible for the Iraq disaster+Katrina+Great Recession, a Great Recession+Pandemic Catastrophe would lead to a similar wipe out.

Then it didn't happen. Sure, Biden won by what, 7 million votes, a good chunk, and the biggest election win since I guess '08 I think? Otoh, Trump still managed to pull the highest Republican vote total EVER in an election. EVER, after all the asininity of 2016-2020, after the Covid Debacle that was patently and obviously made infinitely worse by his incompetence EVERY SINGLE DAY. The fact that Republican voters came out in force, and voted for their wannabe Catskills Mussolini, after ALL OF THAT? I was absolutely stunned. I expected not so much them to switch to Dem's, but rather to sit this one out, why risk voting and catching covid to support this obvious moron? Instead, they came out in force. I got that completely and totally wrong.

#2 I am again sympathetic to the take. But I also don't think it's totally right. Part of the problem is just that the most hysterical part of the left, right though they may be on Orange Mussolini, also tend to activate Republican Voters to vote in elections at higher rates with their behavior and with their public discourse. The most shrill tend to piss people off, and they tend to share a spot on the Venn diagram with a series of separate mistakes and misreading which did put them on the wrong side of the political consensus on Me Too, George Floyd and Black Lives Matter and Public Protest Hypocrisy, DEI and Affirmative Action (the latter not actually enjoying majority support in the African American Community, let alone the entire US), 10/7 and the horrifying response of Universities useful idiots, Trans and sports (a boutique issue that Dems allowed to be used as a cudgel when it accounted for like .001% of the country), immigration (open boarders, instead of sane border controls: I 100% buy Frum's argument from years ago that, "If you don't control the border, Republicans will get a tyrant elected who will") etc etc. I am in general, on the side of this guy and really buy his arguments about the moron in chief, but I also know that as much as we might want to dog pile idiots like David Brooks, Brett Easton Ellis (I love the guy and his podcast, but when it comes to politics, he allows the far left issues in Hollywood to turn his brain to cheese, in fairness, he's an artist, not a political scientist, so there's that), Glenn Loury (how his brain has become mush on this issue is utterly beyond me), Brett Stephens, the Fifth Column guys etc, reality is, everybody's wrong on different parts of the arguments of society. Nobody owns some clear central piece of wisdom that blends across all issues.....the far left gets some things right but a lot of things wrong, and tends to be equally as repellant in different ways from the far right, the centrists are too often the last to see the car crash coming, the right is too often too fearful of change, to make necessary change in a timely manner, the left of center is too often ineffectual in communicating with the rest of the political community to actually warn effectively (too me anyway) and to disorganized to effectively achieve its objectives.

#3 I don't know who should lead, I don't rust anyone, certainly not the far left who are clearly over the bend, but the far right is even worse, just two generations removed from white hoods and lynchings. I don't trust Brooks and Stephens types because its patently obvious they've never spent a few months let alone the decades I spent working at Title 1 Schools and in the inner city, they know knowing of the real world, but I also don't trust probably who this guy trusts because they are totally ineffective at political communication with 70-80% of the electorate.

#4 It's funny what Zonker says in his post, because I remember after sitting through an early training/con ed session with a district department chair back in '19 that was presenting ways to teach about Revolutions, and Political Instability in the modern world, I mentioned: It's not just North Africa, it's us too, if things don't change here, we could see this country break apart in a decade or two....and I could tell by his face he'd just slotted me into the "don't talk to this guy, he's nut" part of his brain, so 10 minutes later I caught him as we were all leaving and said something along the lines of, "I know it sounds nuts but look at it this way, in '17 a study came out that projected by 2040, 33% of the country would hold 35 senate seats, and 67% would control 15 seats. If that wasn't bad enough, we had already reached a point in 2016 where a Dem needed a 52.5% majority to likely win a majority of electoral votes, in '20 it was projected to be 53-47% to just tie....and I turned to him after saying that, and said, "How is that situation anything other than a broken country and broken government?" Republican's have no incentive to change it because they controlled SCOTUS, and had a built in advantage in all 3 branches (controlling majority in SCOTUS, Senate Tilt reinforced Republican control through empty states with equal senators, and then the House artificially tamps down house representation in the largest most populous states). He had no answer, but I could see he thought I was being a bit dramatic. Things have changed in recent years, with Dem governance in places like California causing dramatic shifts in population (will these voters change their vote like they changed their address? Not sure), Orange Mussolini won again due to two key trend lines: #1 Massive economic pain from post-covid inflation caused all incumbents to get bounced outside of Canada the last several years, plus the country as a whole appeared to be sick of the far left as well (the #'s say it, as does the apparent effectiveness of adds like "She's for They/Them, he's for you," obvious horse ---- but also demonstrably effective with voters, and apparently Clinton was apoplectic at the lack of response to the advertisement for months by the DNC etc, Clinton, always an amoral ----, was also always, a brilliant political tactician), but when I come back to Zonk's thoughts in the above post I can't help but agree.

When I talked about what was going on with friends since Bluexit first became a thing 8 years ago I didn't disagree with it. Republicans have zero incentive to change since a system a large percentage of their idiot voters think is rigged against them, is actually demonstrably rigged for them. Why change when the system benefits you, before we even take into account their machiavellian commitment to maximizing gerrymanders? Why give up their own power advantages. You can sense this from McConnell, from Cruz, Rich Lowery, and the rest of the politicians and consultants, and I feel like I've been screaming into a void ever since McConnell finally took the step too far in '16 with Garland and stealing a SCOTUS seat. All I could think and say at the time and ever since has been, "Eventually, you know this will break? Right? You get that if you rig the game to this extent, eventually Californians, and New Yorkers will look and consider that they pay for all the Welfare Programs the citizens of places like Mississippi, Alabama, Florida or North Dakota refuse to provide their own citizens and instead suck up through the federal government teat, will decide to simply turn off the spigot and walk away? You realize that right? You can only kick people in the face and rub ---- in people's face so much before they walk. This political inertia we have enjoyed for 55 years is basically linked to economic well being, and as our economic well being gets perpetually put at risk by 2 Santa Clause Theory (make the mess and let Dem's clean it up in '92, '08, '20, '28 or '32) and now by Trump being a messianic dip---- of colossal proportions that Republican candidates won't risk pissing off, will come to an end. People will finally begin to think? Why the hell are we sharing a country with the ----ing idiots? Why do we have to share a country with people who hate us and who we've grown to hate too? And then it breaks.

That's the thing that bothers me most. As this horror show builds, if you read Haidt's the righteous mind, it's impossible to get away from the idea that we desperately need each other, that conservatives and liberals work together like chocolate and peanut butter, soy and sugar, milk and cookies. That we offset each others worst instincts and liabilities, and strengthen one another's assets, but as long as we hate each other, we get none of the benefits of any of these things. We get liberal cities turned into homeless, drug den ---- holes, and deregulated states like Texas, with exploding fertilizer plants, no workers rights, and power outages in summer heat, and power outages in winter cold spells. We need each other, but nobody seems to understand that because we've grown so thoroughly to the point where we hate each other.

It feels like Yugoslavia in 1991 more than anything else right now, will the political inertia hold, and we'll just end up growling at each other until we can find the political leadership necessary to bridge these breaks and chasms between one another? Or will we just splinter and break up into sections, The Northeast and West becoming liberal bastions, the midwest and south becoming conservative bulwarks? I don't know. I just know the current situation is not sustainable, and arguing about who was right is immaterial.

This breakup is happening right now, it was always obvious that Trump was an evil, dumb--- moron, who nevertheless had a Catskills comic quality that could bring crowds to him, mixing in just the right "hates" with just the right kind of social comedy to pull 35-40% of Republicans to him. Yes that writer was right, you were right, and I was right. But it doesn't really matter much because we still have to win a working majority of votes to accomplish anything all, and failing that, we have to motivate enough people in the Northeast and West, to be willing to flat out secede and officially break up with the country.

It's a truly terrible time. I have a 9 year old, I can have Canadian citizenship through my father who was born in British Columbia (paternal family is from Vancouver, outside Edmonton, and Nova Scotia), but I don't want to leave, I just want people to get their heads out of their ---es and try to fix this broke country, broke constitution, broken everything, and rebuild it. But everyday that seems farther away and ever less likely :( . Its hard to imagine we can ever trust each other again at this point, and that doesn't even take into account the rest of the world watching this with horror, and my personal terror, what if we do get hit by another pandemic, but it's more like the Yersinia Pestis plagues that appear to have repeatedly wiped out 15-30% of populations for millennia after millennia in the past, and it hits a broken culture that will not and cannot trust the CDC, or HHS, that is vaccine skeptic and on and on. Spanish Flu smashed the ever living ---- out of us a hundred years+ ago, something worse, in this kind of cultural environment? I shudder to imagine. It's crazy to think of how different things are from when I was in High School and the wall fell in '89, Mandela freed months later in '90, the world seemed to be waking up to a new century, an actual summer of love, and now 35+ years later, it's a hellscape :(.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#604 » by dobrojim » Wed Apr 30, 2025 5:01 pm

(This was in response to Fairview)

Right. They just identify with the flagrant despise he
shows to the same people they despise. His feelings towards them are carefully kept confidential.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#605 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Apr 30, 2025 5:09 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:THAT is how you defeat Trumpism.


or just wait for him to die


it's too late. GOP doesn't have to win elections anymore, so it doesn't matter that Trumpism dies with Trump. Democracy is dead now. Well, we'll have elections, but with the SCOTUS rubber stamping all their election manipulating, the GOP will never lose a national election again. House, Senate, POTUS. Forever.

Once people realize that's what happened, that's when we have to think about seceding. It'll take a few years but it doesn't take a genius to see where all this is going.


Yep, and it's always important to realize that this isn't simply Trump. Different people talk different angles of it, my department chair and I debate it:

He argued it wasn't '16, with the district department, it was '08, but since we met up 3 years I argued this:

It's this jambalaya:

*Starts in 1980 with Moral Majority kicking in the door they had been blocked out of since the Birchers were bounced.

*Accelerates in late 80's/early nineties with the birth of political talk radio: Rush Limbaugh, and Newt pushing out compromisers, and building a: Dems are the enemy, describe them as such approach.

*Birth of Fox News and growth of the internet: Bifurcates American society into siloed groups largely immune to ideas they don't like, particularly republicans (see polls that show Fox News watchers are actually less informed on the latest news, than non-news watchers)

*2000 Election-SCOTUS basically steals it (though apparently both sides were wrong in the courts about what approach would have lead to their victory if votes were counted)

*Great Recession+Obama

*Rise of Trump

*McConnell and SCOTUS

*Covid


It's ALL OF THAT.

Trump is a symptom of a decades long slow, circuitous break down of the ties that once bound us.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#606 » by AFM » Wed Apr 30, 2025 5:15 pm

Nice post boss.

The only thing I'll add is, in the same way no one saw Trump coming, we didn't know things could turn south this quickly, the opposite is also true--things can also turn back around. No one has a crystal ball and I'm not really a fan of the doom and gloom we've been defeated and will never win an election again approach.

More likely Trump and MAGA will crash and burn, and with immigration trends it will be very hard for them to have success in the future. But it will require the Dems to actually get their sht together and find someone charismatic to lead their party. Kamala Harris was not it, obviously. A mistake to hide Biden then try to shoehorn in an absurdly unpopular nominee. Also a mistake to run a black indian woman, probably not the best election to try to get cute with it. Sorry but this country doesn't seem to be ready for that.

Trump crashing the economy is actually the opening the Ds need to right this ship. But they have to take advantage. Let's wait and see what the midterms are like.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#607 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Apr 30, 2025 6:17 pm

On the "everyone is just tired of strident liberals" I present you ... what is happening now. Were they not justified in being strident?

I mean, I get it. My ex wife used to scream at me and I'd be like "why can't you just raise these issues normally" and she'd say "If I don't scream at you you won't pay attention" and I'm like "but you've never tried the non screamy way so how do you know"

Yes it's annoying when people scream at you and then tell you they are screaming because that's the only way to get you to listen. But are they right? If they didn't scream stridently would you pay attention? Liberal activism involves throwing a lot of stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks and apparently what sticks sometimes is screaming as loudly as you possibly can. I'm not saying it's "your fault tm" but it kinda is.

On cities being crime infested whatever whatever, I grew up in rural southwest Ohio, I was in a class of 60 people and one classmate committed suicide, another was murdered by a S.W.A.T. team while he was having a mental breakdown (and firing guns off randomly, so... oh yeah he was a gun hoarder and told me a month or so beforehand that "when they came to get him he wouldn't go quietly" but anyway), and one was murdered by his nephews that he had fired. So that's one out of 20 classmates dead from the various forms of violence that are all around us and doesn't count all the classmates that got addicted to crack in the 90s but survived. Rural Ohio isn't peaceful and crime free. It's a brutal, nasty place full of drug addicts and gun obsessed murderers and it is arguably more brutal and nasty, PER CAPITA, than inner city Anacostia. It's just the crime and violence and desperation is more concentrated and so a lot more visible in cities. But don't let right wingers brainwash you into thinking non urban areas are some kind of crime free paradise. They are NOT.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#608 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Apr 30, 2025 6:41 pm

Fairview4Life wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:All the economic growth in this country has been concentrated in the hands of the top 20% since Reagan.


Incomes were up above inflation for the bottom 20%, during Biden's term. People don't vote for Trump because of economic reasons.


Well, I'm trying to make two points. Kind of a long run point and a short run point.

One, people are unhappy for legitimate (long run) reasons. The bottom two thirds have *not* benefited from the incredible economic growth this country has enjoyed in the last forty five years. Bernie tried to capitalize on this and the moderates shut him down. So there was a vacuum there that the Dems very deliberately left open and Trump filled it. And you know - I've been around union people all my life, a lot of union guys are xenophobic, misogynist @holes and I get why the Dem leadership, when faced between the choice of supporting the civil rights segment vs. the union segment, very quietly decided to ignore the racist xenophobic misogynist union segment. Trump picked those guys up (and the large majority of them are white guys) by appealing to nasty character traits that were already there.

Nevertheless to say that Biden lost because of inflation is nonsensical. Like you said, incomes were up. And like I keep saying, all inflation-related concerns in the polls disappeared when Trump won. Inflation didn't go away. A lot of people had been trained by Fox to whine about inflation when what they really wanted was to be able to use the N-word again. I think polls are broken now, Fox has so many people repeating their talking points that they can make polls say whatever they want. You've got to be skeptical now.

So yeah, Trump picked up a lot of ex union xenophobes by appealing to their xenophobia and yeah these are the guys hurt the most by technological advance and globalization and yeah the Dems kinda had to pick between them and civil rights activists and they chose the latter. Was there a way to thread the needle and address xenophobic ex union guys' concerns without alienating civil rights folks and vice versa? That's the question nobody asks, because they all assume "oh of course you should take civil rights votes for granted and instead you need to reach out to the uneducated white people" and that attitude is what lost the 2024 election.

Yes you could bring the ex union xenophobes back into the fold by offering them a ubi, if they'll take it. But we've all been brainwashed into thinking that the government should only be giving money away to the rich.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#609 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Apr 30, 2025 6:49 pm

I love how Trump's spin is "well yeah I inherited a strong economy but it was BIDEN's economy so not nearly as good as you think it is"
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#610 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:15 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
bsilver wrote:On the negative side:
Much of the federal govt infrastructure is being destroyed.
The economy is in danger of collapse.
Any progress on climate change will be reversed.
Lots of other stuff.

On the positive side:
The economy is in danger of collapse.
People will suffer from the economy and cuts to govt programs.

Unknown:
Will the Supreme Court stand up to Trump.

I think there is a good chance our democracy will survive Trump without us doing anything drastic. If Trump continues his current policies there's an excellent chance Republicans will lose the House in 2026 and damage can be limited. I don't think Rs can get it together in time to subvert an honest election in 2026.
A very old damaged Trump will not try to subvert the law and run again. There is no identified successor to Trump to rally his base in 2028. His unpopularity will do great harm to the MAGA movement and mainstream Rs will not go along with destroying democratic institutions. So, we'll have a "normal" 2028 election.

The danger is that Trump will reverse his economic policies. Hopefully not.
The Ds also have a problem. They are in disarray with no clear direction. They ran primarily in 2024 as the anti-Trump party, and they could easily lose in in a fair 2028 election if they don't have a clear message.


GOP absolutely has enough time to organize to subvert the election. They spent all of 2020 to 2024 studying what they could get away with. But their modus operandi is to shift the overton window enough to just start bragging out loud about how they are stuffing ballot boxes and getting away with it. If they intend to subvert the 2026 election we will know - they won't try to hide it.



One thing I'd like to add, is probably the most insidious argument I saw the past several years was the press allowing the comparison between Trump denying '20's results, and Abrams denying the '18 election results in Georgia. All it took was about 5 seconds to realize that Kemp had the power, and used the power to toss out voter registrations he didn't like or found fishy, that was on a level that just a decade earlier would have been called Saddam Hussein/Soviet Puppet level horse ---- election rules. You cannot be in charge of the validity of your own governors race election ballots, and yet Kemp was, and saw no problem with it. The fact that the media refused to cover this properly and then allowed ----'s like Lowry and the entire Republican Establishment to what about "Abrams" it, in comparison to '20 was so colossal absurd you knew the horse was already well out of the barn in terms of the legitimacy of anything in this country, never mind their comparisons with Clinton in '16 or anything else. It was absolute horse ---- and no-one has ever been honest about it. Abrams was justified in crying foul in '18, full stop, 100% justified. She probably would have lost anyway, she needed to be running in '20 instead, but the way that election was carried out was bull----, and I'd say the same about any Dem pulling that crap, nobody ever should be allowed to play in role in determining the legitimacy of voter registrations and ballots etc in their own ----ing election, the fact that some people pretended to not get that really emphasized how utterly LOST this country is.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#611 » by montestewart » Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:23 pm

Fairview4Life wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:All the economic growth in this country has been concentrated in the hands of the top 20% since Reagan.


Incomes were up above inflation for the bottom 20%, during Biden's term. People don't vote for Trump because of economic reasons.

It's true that real, inflation-adjusted income grew under Biden for the bottom 20% (or at least the lower earnings echelons, don't have any figure handy), but since inflation adjusted income is subject to regional and industry variables, and perceptions of this growth are subject to fears of the future and messaging that either offers economic gloom or economic hope, I would not dismiss poorer people voting for Trump at least partially for economic reasons. I certainly dismiss it for wealthier people, many of whom are voting for Trump primarily for the tax cuts and other economic windfalls they are or expect to be receiving. Some rich people switched from Clinton to Bush to Obama to Trump. Maybe they're all racists, etc. but they want the money.

But to your point, Biden/Harris seemed to dodge the inflation issue, when they should have addressed it head on. Where wage growth was ahead of inflation, they should have made that argument, and acknowledged where it was not. Instead they just kept saying how great the economy was and how bad it would be under Trump (they weren't wrong about that). To me this fed into Trump's precipice of doom vision (foreigners, socialists, elitists, etc. stealing your money every which way) which seems very effective with low information voters that have reason to feel economic anxiety and are amenable to other aspects of MAGA. As I mentioned earlier, Clinton and Obama stole some of those voters. Biden did too. GOTV is the most important tool in Democrats arsenal in 2026 and 2028, but I wouldn't dismiss peeling off some MAGA votes over the economy, especially with what a disaster it looks like it will be during Trump's hopefully final term.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#612 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:43 pm

And maybe I'm a victim of coverage bias myself, and the media *covers* Dems attempts to reach out to moderates and independents more than they cover gotv, even when the DNC's *resources* are more directed at gotv. I have to be skeptical myself, maybe Dems did everything they could as well as they possibly could and they just lost to a superior opponent. I hate to call Trump "superior" but he did have the full force of Fox News and the whole right wing derposphere supporting him and he is an *extremely* charismatic liar. Like AFM says, he radiates authenticity somehow, just like Clinton did (and the GOP hated him for that!). He's got rizz, and Biden/Harris don't.

But you don't need to be born with rizz, if you play into the kayfabe game you can earn it. Trump's rizz comes from being on the Apprentice for years and years, a lot of important demographics are really familiar with him and like his act. I will concede part of the "stridency" point, that Dems have a tendency to pontificate and lecture. Like even AOC does it. There's no entertainment instinct on the Dem side. And look, lies are more entertaining than truth. But you also don't have to keep track of all your lies when you're telling the truth. Dems could do way better.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#613 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:45 pm

AFM wrote:It's not insane, that's probably the biggest reason why he lost. Inflation wasn't his fault, or anyone in the US govt really, but the perception was that it was somehow Biden's doing. Blame the insane amount of RW propoganda everywhere online and in the media.
"Trump will fix egg prices". Of course he's done the complete opposite with his tariffs.


Yep, x10000, it's why every incumbent lost in the western world pretty much between '22 and '24.

People saw the prices in the store and they lost their minds, month after month from later '21 through the election. People are still pissed now, and they definitely were then, and Biden and co never found the right argument to add the nuance that" yes, this blows, but we are doing a better job of jump starting our economy post-covid than any country in the world," for most voters, they simply didn't want to hear that kind of message. There's also, it's mean, and it's not something people talk about much, but 1 in 7 people out there are 75 to sub 75 IQ, about 1 in 3 are 100 or sub 100. There's a lot of people that flat out cannot reason these things out with nuance, period, sometimes you see that with libs, sometimes you see it with conservatives, but there's an inherent ridiculousness in the arguments you hear from most swing voters, who can, rather meanly, more accurately be called, uninformed voters, most of the time.

The reality is people wanted to vote: "whatever is not this" in a lot of cases simply because things were more expensive, and when you add that Biden is stumbling around, clearly out of it, and people are lying about it, it only further reinforces distrust of whatever is in right now, in favor of whatever is most different.

Dem's botched this in a million ways, and I have no idea why they haven't shipped Schumer out on an ice flow yet, way too many geriatric, comfortable morons atop the party, and dunderheaded morons even at the youth level too (see that meeting for DNC chair or whatever it was a month or so ago, and all the easily meme-able dumber than ---- things the dems did at that asinine meeting), but with all that knowledge in tow, it doesn't change the fact that it was always going to be hard to win this election no matter who the republicans ran. The indictment is more about the fact that we elected this dunderheaded monster, even after we, as a country, should fully know what he is, regardless of the economic circumstances. It was a fundamental indictment of us as a people. I can't get away from that.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#614 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Apr 30, 2025 8:04 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
Fairview4Life wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:All the economic growth in this country has been concentrated in the hands of the top 20% since Reagan.


Incomes were up above inflation for the bottom 20%, during Biden's term. People don't vote for Trump because of economic reasons.


I know a couple of Ukranian Americans who voted for Trump or at the very least didn't vote for Harris. They basically voted against their own country of origin's interest.

One of the voters primary interest was the Ukraine war yet could not bring herself to vote for Harris because Biden didn't do enough for Ukraine. Now she gets a candidate who will do even less for Ukraine.


The other person voted for Trump because he taught it would be easier for him to make money. At least I know that this person regrets his vote but it just goes to show that voters are acting against their own interest.


I remember those reports from back in '22. The vibe out of Ukraine was: "well maybe Trump will actually help, Biden's been giving us enough rope to lift ourselves out of the quicksand, but only as far as below our mouth, anytime we start to get our shoulders above, he eases off and we sink again," this may have been true, or at least, partially reasonable depiction of a president trying to balance a war getting out of control, with not letting Russia just annihilate Ukraine, but the idea that Trump was gonna do anything other than serve Ukraine up on a platter to Trump was always patently absurd and betrayed a total misunderstanding of him as a person, and his affiliations and preferences. He's a wanna be Don Vito, who's actually 75% Fredo, and 25% Sonny Corleone's temperament. A Weasley, untrustworthy piece of ---- with a gigantic ego, epic narcissism, and a desperately hidden low self-esteem. He was always going to side with whomever was the mob bosses in the international order, hence he treats our allies like ----, and respects other authoritarians that wack their internal competition.

He was always going to ---- over Ukraine, full stop, and they were absolute idiots for not working 10,000x double time with Europe to get as much military aid as humanly possible starting in winter '23-'24.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#615 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Apr 30, 2025 8:28 pm

AFM wrote:Nice post boss.

The only thing I'll add is, in the same way no one saw Trump coming, we didn't know things could turn south this quickly, the opposite is also true--things can also turn back around. No one has a crystal ball and I'm not really a fan of the doom and gloom we've been defeated and will never win an election again approach.

More likely Trump and MAGA will crash and burn, and with immigration trends it will be very hard for them to have success in the future. But it will require the Dems to actually get their sht together and find someone charismatic to lead their party. Kamala Harris was not it, obviously. A mistake to hide Biden then try to shoehorn in an absurdly unpopular nominee. Also a mistake to run a black indian woman, probably not the best election to try to get cute with it. Sorry but this country doesn't seem to be ready for that.

Trump crashing the economy is actually the opening the Ds need to right this ship. But they have to take advantage. Let's wait and see what the midterms are like.


I've never bought the demographic advantage argument, a huge portion of the demographics coming in our moderates trying to escape idiot/corrupt/radical governments. They tend to be religious if they're latino, or simply business conservative if they're from Asia. The only trend line that has ever brought any latino's or Asian immigrants or African immigrants towards the dem party is the obvious, over the bend racism of somewhere between 35-50% of republicans. The shift you saw in '24 were a reflection of this reality: why the ---- are latinos voting for republicans and trump? Simple: $$$+Religion.

If republicans dropped the racism, tried to dip more into a Reagan '86 approach, they'd probably curb stomp us, but they've been swallowed whole by the idiot 1/3+ of their party, who want to rip the country's economy to shreds because they hate immigrants, who actually help power the economy. If I didn't hate that party so much, I'd empathize with them. The ruling oligarch's of the party just want to make $$$, and build businesses and hold onto our perch atop the international order, but they've got 1/3+ of the party who are racist, ignorant, morons, and religious bigots, and if they don't motivate them, they can't win elections. It's a terrible bind to be in, and as a result, I tend to think over time the smarter ones have slowly retired, or not gone into politics at all, so now even the reps and senators and governors are often just birthed from pools of stupidity and are idiots themselves.

Not a great situation for them or for the country.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#616 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Apr 30, 2025 8:35 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:On the "everyone is just tired of strident liberals" I present you ... what is happening now. Were they not justified in being strident?

I mean, I get it. My ex wife used to scream at me and I'd be like "why can't you just raise these issues normally" and she'd say "If I don't scream at you you won't pay attention" and I'm like "but you've never tried the non screamy way so how do you know"

Yes it's annoying when people scream at you and then tell you they are screaming because that's the only way to get you to listen. But are they right? If they didn't scream stridently would you pay attention? Liberal activism involves throwing a lot of stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks and apparently what sticks sometimes is screaming as loudly as you possibly can. I'm not saying it's "your fault tm" but it kinda is.

On cities being crime infested whatever whatever, I grew up in rural southwest Ohio, I was in a class of 60 people and one classmate committed suicide, another was murdered by a S.W.A.T. team while he was having a mental breakdown (and firing guns off randomly, so... oh yeah he was a gun hoarder and told me a month or so beforehand that "when they came to get him he wouldn't go quietly" but anyway), and one was murdered by his nephews that he had fired. So that's one out of 20 classmates dead from the various forms of violence that are all around us and doesn't count all the classmates that got addicted to crack in the 90s but survived. Rural Ohio isn't peaceful and crime free. It's a brutal, nasty place full of drug addicts and gun obsessed murderers and it is arguably more brutal and nasty, PER CAPITA, than inner city Anacostia. It's just the crime and violence and desperation is more concentrated and so a lot more visible in cities. But don't let right wingers brainwash you into thinking non urban areas are some kind of crime free paradise. They are NOT.



First off: You're not allowed to bug my kitchen and living room. Clearly you've been listening in on my wife and my arguments from the past 15 years.

Secondly: I never side rural communities were free of crime or violence. They are just ignored. Anyone who pays attention to anything, knows crime rates in the South are significantly higher than NYC, SF, LA etc, especially violent crime. The problem is, the rural crime rates are less noticeable because nobody gives a ---- nor is anyone traveling there. But when you visit LA or SF, and realize it its the homeless drug addled capital of the world, that there are tents freaking everywhere, due to misgovernance, and the willful stupidity of my own fellow dems (NImbyism, overregulation which makes it hard as hell to build housing etc), that violence and crime make it impossible to pull things off the shelf because of theft laws (everything covered by glass key opened sections on products as cheap as $6 or $7), when you lose beloved grocery stores and outposts because they don't want to deal with people shoveling ---- into a cart and leaving because they just can....you lose peoples support.

I'm not suggesting that rural communities are heaven, I've worked in them, dated people from them, depressing, and often hopeless, I get it, I'm suggesting what we can control, we've generally consistently ----ed up, just like they do, because when one party controls everything and will not compromise, they tend to follow crappy instincts. California is much worse for having lost Republican's as a partner the past 15 years. I grew up in a California that swung between Republican and Dem governors and legislatures, and it grew and grew and grew, it's still bustling economically, but its also shedding an absolute ton of its population because of misgorvernance. We have to do a better job of balancing our best ideas, with sound reasoning and well thought out and ambitious programs.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#617 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Apr 30, 2025 8:35 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:
AFM wrote:It's not insane, that's probably the biggest reason why he lost. Inflation wasn't his fault, or anyone in the US govt really, but the perception was that it was somehow Biden's doing. Blame the insane amount of RW propoganda everywhere online and in the media.
"Trump will fix egg prices". Of course he's done the complete opposite with his tariffs.


Yep, x10000, it's why every incumbent lost in the western world pretty much between '22 and '24.

People saw the prices in the store and they lost their minds, month after month from later '21 through the election. People are still pissed now, and they definitely were then, and Biden and co never found the right argument to add the nuance that" yes, this blows, but we are doing a better job of jump starting our economy post-covid than any country in the world," for most voters, they simply didn't want to hear that kind of message. There's also, it's mean, and it's not something people talk about much, but 1 in 7 people out there are 75 to sub 75 IQ, about 1 in 3 are 100 or sub 100. There's a lot of people that flat out cannot reason these things out with nuance, period, sometimes you see that with libs, sometimes you see it with conservatives, but there's an inherent ridiculousness in the arguments you hear from most swing voters, who can, rather meanly, more accurately be called, uninformed voters, most of the time.

The reality is people wanted to vote: "whatever is not this" in a lot of cases simply because things were more expensive, and when you add that Biden is stumbling around, clearly out of it, and people are lying about it, it only further reinforces distrust of whatever is in right now, in favor of whatever is most different.

Dem's botched this in a million ways, and I have no idea why they haven't shipped Schumer out on an ice flow yet, way too many geriatric, comfortable morons atop the party, and dunderheaded morons even at the youth level too (see that meeting for DNC chair or whatever it was a month or so ago, and all the easily meme-able dumber than ---- things the dems did at that asinine meeting), but with all that knowledge in tow, it doesn't change the fact that it was always going to be hard to win this election no matter who the republicans ran. The indictment is more about the fact that we elected this dunderheaded monster, even after we, as a country, should fully know what he is, regardless of the economic circumstances. It was a fundamental indictment of us as a people. I can't get away from that.


Interestingly, for any given country, most citizens in that country do not care how they are doing relative to citizens of other countries. They only care how they are doing compared to other citizens. So the fact that we recovered better than everybody else is just something nobody cares about. People are weird.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#618 » by dobrojim » Wed Apr 30, 2025 9:44 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:I love how Trump's spin is "well yeah I inherited a strong economy but it was BIDEN's economy so not nearly as good as you think it is"


The opening story this afternoon was Trump is *now*
blaming Biden for the market when a year ago
(when Biden was Prez) he was saying the rally was
because the polls predicted he would win.

Middle amurica nods their heads yup yup

It's perplexing how so many people agree with him
in both cases. Might have something to do with the
news they listen to.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#619 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Apr 30, 2025 10:07 pm

See I'm not the only one freaking about what's going on

https://bsky.app/profile/govpritzker.illinois.gov/post/3lny6rw66ws2s

This is almost word for word what I've been saying. This has happened before so we know what it looks like and it's our duty to STRIDENTLY SPEAK OUT
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIV 

Post#620 » by AFM » Wed Apr 30, 2025 10:23 pm

dobrojim wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:I love how Trump's spin is "well yeah I inherited a strong economy but it was BIDEN's economy so not nearly as good as you think it is"


The opening story this afternoon was Trump is *now*
blaming Biden for the market when a year ago
(when Biden was Prez) he was saying the rally was
because the polls predicted he would win.

Middle amurica nods their heads yup yup

It's perplexing how so many people agree with him
in both cases. Might have something to do with the
news they listen to.



When you realize it's a literal cult everything makes sense.

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