2025 NBA Draft Discussion Part 6

[WuTang_CMB]

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[Jadoogar]

I would also argue we hit on Scottie. He's not as good as Cade or Mobley but he was drafted after those guys. I like Suggs (and wanted him at the draft) but Scottie projects to be a better player.

I think he has the makings of a nice roleplayer right now, but for a 4th overall, he's a pretty large disappointment to me. That draft wasn't a strong one overall, so there's that to factor in, but even still. I'm hopeful we can turn things around as we relieve him of some scoring burden.

Not every draft is the same tho. i don't think you can just look at "bad value for the 4th pick". The guys selected after Scottie: Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga, Franz, Davion Mitchell, Zaire Williams, James Bouknight, Josh Primo. I would argue only one of those players has an argument to be a better player than Scottie. I think Masai nailed that pick given the options. Don't forget, scottie was not the consensus pick at that spot, it was a risky selection.

Some guys selected in the teens might be better but that's kinda random luck because Jalen Johnson wasn't being considered in the top 5 by anyone.

[tsherkin]

Not every draft is the same tho. i don't think you can just look at "bad value for the 4th pick". The guys selected after Scottie: Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga, Franz, Davion Mitchell, Zaire Williams, James Bouknight, Josh Primo. I would argue only one of those players has an argument to be a better player than Scottie. I think Masai nailed that pick given the options. Don't forget, scottie was not the consensus pick at that spot, it was a risky selection.

Some guys selected in the teens might be better but that's kinda random luck because Jalen Johnson wasn't being considered in the top 5 by anyone.

If you read my post, then you know you're not really responding to what I said. I acknowledged that the draft was weak and that I'm not looking to blame Masai. It doesn't change the fact that our value for that pick is still not what you traditionally want from that slot. Whether Scottie was BPA in that specific draft or not doesn't change the fact that it isn't what we really wanted/needed.

[Mark_83]

Ideal trade down scenario for me:

Toronto trades 7 to Atlanta for 13 and 22.

13- Bryant/Richardson
22-Markovic/Flemming/Sorber
39-Evans/Kalkbrenner/Yang
UDFA-Sears

[BoyzNTheHood]

Lottery season baybeeeeee

[Indeed]

If Giannis and Gobert don't count as 'raw' prospect to you, then who does? What does raw mean?

If having "showed flashes in college and developed some fundamental skills" is the bar, then no one who's ever played in the NBA could be called raw. If you've never showed any flashes of skill or developed fundamental skills, you're not getting drafted

Again, Giannis already got a tight (guard) handle. Did you watch the video I posted?

So what's your bar for "raw"? Who's an example of a raw player that had success?

I should clarify that "showed flashes in college and developed some fundamental skills" refers to a player ceiling. For example, Maluach showed some flashes on his shooting, and that might translate to be some average 3 point shooter in the future. Meanwhile, he does not show much flashes on passing (low passing rate), and it is hard to believe he can be an average passer. And can a superstar with a very low passing rate? It is rather unlikely.

As for raw, it depends what are the skills that he can be applied at a higher level, and would he be lost the whole time in the game. Playing against the same competition also showed. For example, Chomche has more stats than Maluach in the 2024 Hoop Summit, so you got to wonder if Maluach is not as raw as Chomche.

[billy_hoyle]

Not every draft is the same tho. i don't think you can just look at "bad value for the 4th pick". The guys selected after Scottie: Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga, Franz, Davion Mitchell, Zaire Williams, James Bouknight, Josh Primo. I would argue only one of those players has an argument to be a better player than Scottie. I think Masai nailed that pick given the options. Don't forget, scottie was not the consensus pick at that spot, it was a risky selection.

Some guys selected in the teens might be better but that's kinda random luck because Jalen Johnson wasn't being considered in the top 5 by anyone.

If you read my post, then you know you're not really responding to what I said. I acknowledged that the draft was weak and that I'm not looking to blame Masai. It doesn't change the fact that our value for that pick is still not what you traditionally want from that slot. Whether Scottie was BPA in that specific draft or not doesn't change the fact that it isn't what we really wanted/needed.

A third year all-star and a ROY after his freshman season isn't what you would want from a value perspective for the 4th pick?

What do you even mean by that?

How many players win ROY and become an All star within their 1st four seasons?

[tsherkin]

A third year all-star and a ROY after his freshman season isn't what you would want from a value perspective for the 4th pick?

What do you even mean by that?

How many players win ROY and become an All star within their 1st four seasons?

Honestly? None of that means anything to me. I don't think he should have been an All-Star, and ROY is not an award I care about. Mike Miller won ROY. Stephon Castle won it this year.

[BoyzNTheHood]

This is the flex we’re on for lottery season fellas! Let’s keep our spirits high, and let’s stay positive through any and everything!

[WuTang_CMB]

This is the flex we’re on for lottery season fellas! Let’s keep our spirits high, and let’s stay positive through any and everything!

[grant101]

Seems like we disagree less on Kon's potential than Gradey & Ja'Kobe's potential. Kon is stronger than Gradey right now for sure, but Jakobe already put on a crazy amount of muscle over the course of the season and is 6'5" with a 6"11 wingspan, and Gradey is still 6'*8 with a 6"11 wingspan.

Gotta disagree with Kon having way more game too. Gradey had three 30 point games in 11 days (with two other 20+ point games) early in the season, he's shown way more juice and shot creation at the NBA level than Kon did in college. JaKobe's perimeter defense by the end of the year got to a level I don't think Kon's ever will, and he's shown glimpses of becoming a real second-side threat as a ball-handler and a shooter.

Think Kon's gonna be a really good player in the league, but I don't think he's a tier above the guys we already have

Looks like the disagreement is a little of both - Kon’s upside and on how we see our guys.

I think Kon deferred a lot to Flagg, and played a supporting role (very well), but when Flagg was out, he really stepped up and showed a lot of on ball juice. He’s also not nearly a bad a defender as some seem to think.

Gradey showed a lot early on, but it was still primarily as a play finisher - given a lot of leash. I don’t see the playmaking, poise or general manipulation that I see with Kon. The defence is also quite bad.

Jakobe’s defence was a nice surprise, but he’s a much more limited offensive player. In any case, I’m not trying to drag our guys, I just think Kon has a little more to his game and would make a great addition to the team

Yah that's definitely fair, the ACC tourny is also when I really started to believe in Kon as a future NBA starter. Guess I probably am a little higher than consensus on Gradey + Jakobe too.

Where do you think Kon's best fit is? Out of the current lotto teams I'd probably say San Antonio, but I think he's the exact type of player Orlando needs on the wings, would be interesting to see if they move up to try and get him

San Antonio is great fit, especially considering how well Kon can space the floor and play off of a vertical lob threat. Also think Brooklyn, Philly, Houston and Dallas could all really use someone like Kon if they end up outside of the top 4.

Orlando is not bad, but I would prioritize guards if I were them. They have a lot of 6'8-6'10 types that they've invested in fighting for minutes on that team.

Not the cleanest fit here, but he helps and finds a spot the rotation by the end of the year.

[Los_29]

i agree with your overall point i don't agree with the Demar example. Most #9 picks would be extremely lucky to have a career like Demar. I'm not a big fan of his but 25,000 career points is a fantastic outcome.

Yeah, Demar has had a nice long career. He isn't a winning player and his volume overrates his actual value, but from a "sticking in the league" POV, a 6-time All-Star isn't a bad deal, for sure. But yeah, I was evaluating utility, expectation and timeline more than how well he's done for himself.

I would also argue we hit on Scottie. He's not as good as Cade or Mobley but he was drafted after those guys. I like Suggs (and wanted him at the draft) but Scottie projects to be a better player.

I think he has the makings of a nice roleplayer right now, but for a 4th overall, he's a pretty large disappointment to me. That draft wasn't a strong one overall, so there's that to factor in, but even still. I'm hopeful we can turn things around as we relieve him of some scoring burden.

Masai has done well with high picks. Scottie, despite his faults was a great pick at #4. Poeltl was a great pick at #9.

Derozan was a great pick by BC.

I was looking at top 5 picks when I said "high." Yeah Poeltl was a great pick, once we eventually got him back.

You have to look at who was drafted after them. Derozan was an excellent selection at that slot. Even Ross was a great selection. Unless you wanted Drummond. Team has traditionally done quite well in the lottery, even BC had some good moments.

Ross was not a great selection from a value extracted POV. We got 4.5 years of him hovering around 10 ppg and sometimes shooting the 3 well. He was definitely not a pick I'd call a success. I guess you could call him useful in the sense that we moved him for Ibaka, but that's definitely not how I'm evaluating picks.

Superstars are very hard to get. You can’t criticize teams for not drafting a superstar when there wasn’t one available.

Superstars are certainly hard to get, that's true. And you can't draft what isn't there. But if you take a crappy player in a crappy draft, it's still a crappy pick, just not one to grief the front office about.

Your baseball analogy works well, sure. And in general, I think well of what Masai has done with the draft. But the genesis of my remark was about quality of player, not about critiquing our draft policy. I'm less concerned with why we haven't hit; I'm not looking to assign blame for that, I'm looking at whether we got someone worth our time or not, you know what I mean? If anything, my remark does help illustrate your point in the sense that even with a bunch of high or moderately high picks, it's been 20 years since we really hit it in the draft.

We won the championship primarily because we hit on so many of our picks. But I think you’re referring to lottery picks.

Either way, there was just a misunderstanding. I thought you were questioning the team’s picks in the lottery. Objectively they have been very good. I agree they aren’t Luka, Ant or Tatum kind of good but as mentioned earlier, they weren’t available at our picks.

I think we can all agree that this front office has done an excellent job in the draft and their strategy has netted excellent players well outside the lottery. If there are those kinds of players in this year’s draft then I’m quite confident we will get one of those players. But we shall see.

[tsherkin]

We won the championship primarily because we hit on so many of our picks. But I think you’re referring to lottery picks.

Rather explicitly, yes.

Either way, there was just a misunderstanding. I thought you were questioning the team’s picks in the lottery. Objectively they have been very good. I agree they aren’t Luka, Ant or Tatum kind of good but as mentioned earlier, they weren’t available at our picks.

Yeah, like I said, I'm generally pretty happy with how Masai has handled the draft. I wouldn't mind a few more "skill over physical" guys here and there, but in general, he's done a pretty good job. And of course OG and Siakam worked out brilliantly (when healthy) overall. I rather wish we'd retained Siakam, but that's neither here nor there.

[Yallbecrazy]

Other than Flagg, who are the best two-way players?

CMB
Carter Bryant

Carter Bryant is pure 3+D at this point. He doesn't have any creation. Edgecombe is a two way guy as he can attack closeouts. I dropped Edgecombe to #4 because of his lack of half court creation, but he's still young, extremely athletic, and has a good feel for the game along with a decent shot.

[Los_29]

We won the championship primarily because we hit on so many of our picks. But I think you’re referring to lottery picks.

Rather explicitly, yes.

Either way, there was just a misunderstanding. I thought you were questioning the team’s picks in the lottery. Objectively they have been very good. I agree they aren’t Luka, Ant or Tatum kind of good but as mentioned earlier, they weren’t available at our picks.

Yeah, like I said, I'm generally pretty happy with how Masai has handled the draft. I wouldn't mind a few more "skill over physical" guys here and there, but in general, he's done a pretty good job. And of course OG and Siakam worked out brilliantly (when healthy) overall. I rather wish we'd retained Siakam, but that's neither here nor there.

Who are those “skill” guys we passed on?

[tsherkin]

Who are those “skill” guys we passed on?

I didn't posit we had.

[DreamTeam09]

If Giannis and Gobert don't count as 'raw' prospect to you, then who does? What does raw mean?

If having "showed flashes in college and developed some fundamental skills" is the bar, then no one who's ever played in the NBA could be called raw. If you've never showed any flashes of skill or developed fundamental skills, you're not getting drafted

Again, Giannis already got a tight (guard) handle. Did you watch the video I posted?

So what's your bar for "raw"? Who's an example of a raw player that had success?

Giannis does not have a guard like handle either, noteven if we are factoring the height. If Giannis has guard like handles what does players like KD/Tatum/joker handles get compared too who are similar heights as Giannis

[WuTang_CMB]

Other than Flagg, who are the best two-way players?

CMB
Carter Bryant

Carter Bryant is pure 3+D at this point. He doesn't have any creation. Edgecombe is a two way guy as he can attack closeouts. I dropped Edgecombe to #4 because of his lack of half court creation, but he's still young, extremely athletic, and has a good feel for the game along with a decent shot.

Edgecome will be good and should be included. Just the defense isn’t as good as those two. He’s going to need to live in the gym the first few years

[billy_hoyle]

A third year all-star and a ROY after his freshman season isn't what you would want from a value perspective for the 4th pick?

What do you even mean by that?

How many players win ROY and become an All star within their 1st four seasons?

Honestly? None of that means anything to me. I don't think he should have been an All-Star, and ROY is not an award I care about. Mike Miller won ROY. Stephon Castle won it this year.

Mike Miller was easily a top 4 pick in his draft.

Steph Castle will also likely be a top 4 pick in a re-draft.

At least use Micheal Carter Williams, Tyreke Evans or Ben Simmons as your examples.

Fair enough.

You're also of the opinion that DeMar was a bad pick at nine. A guy who will almost assuredly makes the Hall of Fame. I think your valuations are a bit too statistics driven.

I bet Scottie is an all-star again next year and we win alot of games.

[tsherkin]

Mike Miller was easily a top 4 pick in his draft.

Steph Castle will also likely be a top 4 pick in a re-draft.

At least use Micheal Carter Williams, Tyreke Evans or Ben Simmons as your examples.

No, they were salient to my point. You think I'm saying we made a bad decision selecting those guys. I am not saying that. I do not believe we dropped the ball with those picks, as I discussed with Los_29. I just think we didn't get the value we hoped for out of the slot. It speaks to the weakness of the draft, not our management.

You're also of the opinion that DeMar was a bad pick at nine. A guy who will almost assuredly makes the Hall of Fame. I think your valuations are a bit too statistics driven.

I don't consider the HoF worth discussing, so that doesn't mean much to me either. I think that Demar worked out for us in the sense that we were able to build a team which was quite successful with him as a part of it. And I was very happy when we traded him, as well.

I bet Scottie is an all-star again next year and we win alot of games.

I bet we win a lot more games than we did this year, for sure. I hope Scottie is good enough to actually merit being an AS next year. I'd very much enjoy that.