2025 Draft Thread - Part 2

[AFM]

I'm convinced. Let's trade 18 for 26.

[payitforward]

In short -- past pick 3 there is little to no pattern of a higher R1 pick being better than a lower R1 pick. Period. & if you want to prove me wrong by pointing out that Paul George was taken at #10 in 2010 & was better than every single player taken after him that year, my response is that he was also better than every single player taken before him! QED.

I think you overstate this point. There is definitely some truth the notion that there hasn't been that much of a difference between FRP's outside of the lottery...

The data says you understate the point.

...Picks 4-11 DEFINITELY outperform picks later in the draft - by a lot - at least with respect to landing star-caliber talent....

Nate, just to be clear. This has been studied & is false. I can't take the time to find the academic articles, but I'll try to get to it in the coming day.

...Once you get down the 13-15 range, I'd say your quantity over quality philosophy has merit...

Just for clarity, I wouldn't say i have a "quantity over quality philosophy." Obviously, there are other factors which affect how many rookies a team can take on. The Wizards right now represent an extreme case.

...the talent disparity levels out a lot in the back half of the first round. Having, say, the #19 and #28 pick has historically turned out a little better than having the #14 pick.

"Talent" is an abstraction. The question would be about results. I doubt that overall, historically, the results of the #14 pick and the #19 pick differ significantly -- forgt about #28.

Even more important, my claim is not that trading a higher pick for 2 lower picks gives GMs better results (tho I would guess that, overall, it does). My claim is that for e.g. the last 13 picks in the draft it is not the case that a graph of results shows superiority at the higher positions (18, 19, etc.) over the lower ones (26, 27, etc.) -- compared 1-to-1.

Which is, obviously, a far more radical claim. & one that's strongly supported by the data.

In fact, I would/do make the same claim for far higher positions in the draft. From 5 to 15 is a very large drop -- does the #5 pick routinely bring you more player value than the #15 pick?

Jonas Valanciunas vs Kawhi Leonard* -- 15 clearly better
Thomas Robinson vs. Mo Harkless* -- 15 clearly better
Alex Len vs. Giannis Antetekounmpo* -- 15 clearly better
Dante Exum vs. Adreian Payne -- no value from either pick
Mario Hezonja vs. Kelly Oubre* -- 15 clearly better
Kris Dunn vs. Juancho Hernangomez -- no value from either pick
De'Aaron Fox* vs. Justin Jackson -- 5 clearly better
Trae Young* vs. Troy Brown, Jr. -- 5 clearly better
Darius Garland* vs. Sekou Dounmboya -- 5 clearly better
Isaac Okoro vs. Cole Anthony* -- 15 clearly better
Jalen Suggs* vs. Corey Kispert -- 5 clearly better
Jaden Ivey vs. Mark Williams* -- 15 clearly better

Not in the dozen drafts from 2011-2022

[nate33]

...Picks 4-11 DEFINITELY outperform picks later in the draft - by a lot - at least with respect to landing star-caliber talent....

Nate, just to be clear. This has been studied & is false. I can't take the time to find the academic articles, but I'll try to get to it in the coming day.

I just posted data from the last 20 drafts. The actual 5th pick was about 4x more likely to yield an All-NBA player than the 15th pick. If you take the average of pick 3-7 versus the average of pick 13-17, the 3-7th pick was about 3x more likely to yield an All-NBA player than the 13-17th pick.

[DCZards]

PIF, from my standpoint, you’re looking at this all wrong. It’s not who was taken at 18, it’s who was available at 18 who was not available at 26. This is the basis for my belief that this Zards FO believes, rightfully or wrongfully, in its ability to identify talent and is very unlikely to trade back 8 picks.

2011 – The 18th pick was Chris Singleton but you also could have drafted Tobias Harris or Reggie Jackson, neither of whom were available at 26
2013 – The 18th pick was Shane Larkin but you also could have drafted Tim Hardaway Jr., who was not available at 26.
2014 – The 18th pick was Tyler Ennis but you also could have drafted Clint Capella, who was not available at 26.
2015 – The 18th pick was Sam Dekker but you also could have drafted Delon Wright, Bobby Portis or Tyus Jones, none of whom were available at 26.
2016 – The 18th pick was Henry Ellenson but you also could have drafted Malik Beasley and Caris LaVert, neither of whom were available at 26.
2017 – The 18th pick was T.J. Leaf, but you also could have drafted John Collins, Jarrett Allen, or OG Anunoby, none of whom were available at 26.
2019 – The 18th pick was Goga Bitazde but you also could have drafted Brandon Clarke or Ty Jerome, neither of whom was available at 26.
2020 – The 18th pick was Saddiq Bey but you also could have drafted Tyrese Maxey, who was not available at 26.
2021 – The 18th pick was Tre Mann but you also could have drafted Jalen Johnson or Quentin Grimes, neither of whom were available at 26.
2022 – The 18th pick was Dalen Terry but you also could have drafted Christian Braun or Walker Kessler, neither of whom were available at 26.

Of course, I have no way of knowing for sure, but I believe this Zards FO would have drafted Anunoby, Tyrese Maxey, and Jalen Johnson, who I’m sure you recall I absolutely loved coming out of Duke.

[DCZards]

Jonas Valanciunas vs Kawhi Leonard* -- 15 clearly better
Thomas Robinson vs. Mo Harkless* -- 15 clearly better
Alex Len vs. Giannis Antetekounmpo* -- 15 clearly better
Dante Exum vs. Adreian Payne -- no value from either pick
Mario Hezonja vs. Kelly Oubre* -- 15 clearly better
Kris Dunn vs. Juancho Hernangomez -- no value from either pick
De'Aaron Fox* vs. Justin Jackson -- 5 clearly better
Trae Young* vs. Troy Brown, Jr. -- 5 clearly better
Darius Garland* vs. Sekou Dounmboya -- 5 clearly better
Isaac Okoro vs. Cole Anthony* -- 15 clearly better
Jalen Suggs* vs. Corey Kispert -- 5 clearly better
Jaden Ivey vs. Mark Williams* -- 15 clearly better

A few points of disagreement.

You must not be watching the playoffs. Kris Dunn is a major factor on D for the Clippers.

Isaac Okoro is an exceptional defender and a good 3pt shooter. Anthony is not “clearly better.”

I don’t believe Williams will turn out to be “clearly better” than Ivey, who was a much improved player when he went out with an injury after only 30 games.

[tontoz]

[9 and 20]

Watching Collin Murray Boyles highlights reminds me of Anthony Mason. Mason was such a fun player. Count me in for CMB!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jonas Valanciunas vs Kawhi Leonard* -- 15 clearly better
Thomas Robinson vs. Mo Harkless* -- 15 clearly better
Alex Len vs. Giannis Antetekounmpo* -- 15 clearly better
Dante Exum vs. Adreian Payne -- no value from either pick
Mario Hezonja vs. Kelly Oubre* -- 15 clearly better
Kris Dunn vs. Juancho Hernangomez -- no value from either pick
De'Aaron Fox* vs. Justin Jackson -- 5 clearly better
Trae Young* vs. Troy Brown, Jr. -- 5 clearly better
Darius Garland* vs. Sekou Dounmboya -- 5 clearly better
Isaac Okoro vs. Cole Anthony* -- 15 clearly better
Jalen Suggs* vs. Corey Kispert -- 5 clearly better
Jaden Ivey vs. Mark Williams* -- 15 clearly better

A few points of disagreement.

You must not be watching the playoffs. Kris Dunn is a major factor on D for the Clippers.

Isaac Okoro is an exceptional defender and a good 3pt shooter. Anthony is not “clearly better.”

I don’t believe Williams will turn out to be “clearly better” than Ivey, who was a much improved player when he went out with an injury after only 30 games.

It's good to see Dunn get shine after struggling with Chicago and Brooklyn. I recall doclinkin pointing out Dunn's Providence College achievements. I loved his statistical breakdowns.

Kris Dunn projected to be the defensive stud that he has become.

[DCZards]

Jonas Valanciunas vs Kawhi Leonard* -- 15 clearly better
Thomas Robinson vs. Mo Harkless* -- 15 clearly better
Alex Len vs. Giannis Antetekounmpo* -- 15 clearly better
Dante Exum vs. Adreian Payne -- no value from either pick
Mario Hezonja vs. Kelly Oubre* -- 15 clearly better
Kris Dunn vs. Juancho Hernangomez -- no value from either pick
De'Aaron Fox* vs. Justin Jackson -- 5 clearly better
Trae Young* vs. Troy Brown, Jr. -- 5 clearly better
Darius Garland* vs. Sekou Dounmboya -- 5 clearly better
Isaac Okoro vs. Cole Anthony* -- 15 clearly better
Jalen Suggs* vs. Corey Kispert -- 5 clearly better
Jaden Ivey vs. Mark Williams* -- 15 clearly better

A few points of disagreement.

You must not be watching the playoffs. Kris Dunn is a major factor on D for the Clippers.

Isaac Okoro is an exceptional defender and a good 3pt shooter. Anthony is not “clearly better.”

I don’t believe Williams will turn out to be “clearly better” than Ivey, who was a much improved player when he went out with an injury after only 30 games.

It's good to see Dunn get shine after struggling with Chicago and Brooklyn. I recall doclinkin pointing Dunn's Providence college achievements. I loved his statistical breakdowns.

Kris Dunn projected to be the defensive stud that he has become.

Dunn was playing for our very own Go-Gos prior to being signed by the Clippers. Definitely always known for his D.

[AFM]

Zards that was crazy

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Here's a mock with the Wizards falling out of the top 3...

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

Jonas Valanciunas vs Kawhi Leonard* -- 15 clearly better
Thomas Robinson vs. Mo Harkless* -- 15 clearly better
Alex Len vs. Giannis Antetekounmpo* -- 15 clearly better
Dante Exum vs. Adreian Payne -- no value from either pick
Mario Hezonja vs. Kelly Oubre* -- 15 clearly better
Kris Dunn vs. Juancho Hernangomez -- no value from either pick
De'Aaron Fox* vs. Justin Jackson -- 5 clearly better
Trae Young* vs. Troy Brown, Jr. -- 5 clearly better
Darius Garland* vs. Sekou Dounmboya -- 5 clearly better
Isaac Okoro vs. Cole Anthony* -- 15 clearly better
Jalen Suggs* vs. Corey Kispert -- 5 clearly better
Jaden Ivey vs. Mark Williams* -- 15 clearly better

A few points of disagreement.

You must not be watching the playoffs. Kris Dunn is a major factor on D for the Clippers.....

Yep -- & good for him for turning his entire career around about 7 years after he was drafted by Minny in 2016. 32 picks later Malcolm Brogdon came off the board. How much better a career has Kris Dunn had than Brogdon?

This is not a talent show. This is an investment of a resource. The 4th pick in the 2016 draft was completely wasted on Kris Dunn.

Isaac Okoro is an exceptional defender and a good 3pt shooter. Anthony is not “clearly better.”

I don’t believe Williams will turn out to be “clearly better” than Ivey, who was a much improved player when he went out with an injury after only 30 games.

First off, Williams is already clearly better than Ivey. Secondly, yes, Ivey was marginally better his 3d year than previously. That's not to say he was good, because he certainly wasn't.

How long ago were you telling me how good a player Kyle Kuzma is?

As to Okoro, I don't mean to rag on him. He went, what #6 in 2020? Would you say he's as good as this year's 6th man of the year, Peyton Pritchard? He went at 26 that year. Is he as good as Quickley, who went at 25? Is he as good as Desmond Bane, who went at 30? Is he as good as Tyrese Maxey (21)? H@ll, is he as good as Deni? As Halliburton?

How about the guys who went at 2, 4 & 7 that year? Are any of them as good as... oh... Tre Jones who was picked at 40. Or Nick Richards who came off the board at 41. Or Isaiah Joe, nabbed at 49.

You would think that the pure quantity & utter obviousness of the point would suffice to drive it home. But... it just doesn't. KJ Martin, taken at 52 in 2020, has been a better player than at least 18 of the guys taken in R1 that year.

Sheesh!

[doclinkin]

...Picks 4-11 DEFINITELY outperform picks later in the draft - by a lot - at least with respect to landing star-caliber talent....

Nate, just to be clear. This has been studied & is false. I can't take the time to find the academic articles, but I'll try to get to it in the coming day.

Count me as another interested in that academic study. I haven't seen it. I track these down on a yearly basis, LOL. I recall the first one I saw was by great grandpappy of stat evaluation Roland Beech on 82games.com.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

The Pelton pick value chart you often cite is based on a similar study, corrected for the careers after players' rookie contract. (The argument being that gives an unfair bias to 1st rounders). Basketball Reference used to have a chart with pick order cross referenced by the best players picked at that spot using Win Score I believe. I've read a few others based on various pet metrics and roll up stats.

There are a few statistical blips where high performing players skew the chart. If I recall it right pick #15 was an anomaly. (Looking it up: Giannis, Kawhi, Steve Nash, Dell Curry, Al Jefferson). And teams like the Spurs always consistently used to draft well even when they were winning championships, which skewed the back end of the first round. (Plus they had a HOF coach and a good system for bringing guys along). There are exceptions every year. Still, the general trend holds: scouting works. Good players are often ID'ed early. Every draft has a few surprises and underperforming players. But when it comes to identifying STAR players, HOF types and All-NBA types, not just solid functional role players, you are better off having a high pick than a handful of later picks.

If you have a study that says differently I'd love to see it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I spoke with Kevin Broom for the first time in ages. He's doing well.

We both remember Kevin Pelton from way back. (I'll leave that convo for Kevin to divulge if he lurks or cares to). Long before Pelton's ESPN Insider days, he was a RealGM Seattle Supersonic fan.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/teams/Seattle_SuperSonics/27/news/www.realgm.com

I can say Kevin told me that he hasn't evaluated any 2025 draft picks.

[Jay81]

I spoke with Kevin Broom for the first time in ages. He's doing well.

We both remember Kevin Pelton from way back. (I'll leave that convo for Kevin to divulge if he lurks or cares to). Long before Pelton's ESPN Insider days, he was a RealGM Seattle Supersonic fan.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/teams/Seattle_SuperSonics/27/news/www.realgm.com

I can say Kevin told me that he hasn't evaluated any 2025 draft picks.

Did something happen to Kevin Broom?

[dckingsfan]

...Picks 4-11 DEFINITELY outperform picks later in the draft - by a lot - at least with respect to landing star-caliber talent....

Nate, just to be clear. This has been studied & is false. I can't take the time to find the academic articles, but I'll try to get to it in the coming day.

Count me as another interested in that academic study. I haven't seen it. I track these down on a yearly basis, LOL. I recall the first one I saw was by great grandpappy of stat evaluation Roland Beech on 82games.com.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

The Pelton pick value chart you often cite is based on a similar study, corrected for the careers after players' rookie contract. (The argument being that gives an unfair bias to 1st rounders). Basketball Reference used to have a chart with pick order cross referenced by the best players picked at that spot using Win Score I believe. I've read a few others based on various pet metrics and roll up stats.

There are a few statistical blips where high performing players skew the chart. If I recall it right pick #15 was an anomaly. (Looking it up: Giannis, Kawhi, Steve Nash, Dell Curry, Al Jefferson). And teams like the Spurs always consistently used to draft well even when they were winning championships, which skewed the back end of the first round. (Plus they had a HOF coach and a good system for bringing guys along). There are exceptions every year. Still, the general trend holds: scouting works. Good players are often ID'ed early. Every draft has a few surprises and underperforming players. But when it comes to identifying STAR players, HOF types and All-NBA types, not just solid functional role players, you are better off having a high pick than a handful of later picks.

If you have a study that says differently I'd love to see it.

14th pick looks really good, 12th pick not so much. I wonder if the pickers were flipped if the results would flip as well.

Either way, it seems like you want to stay in the top 10. 18 for 26 & 27 would be nice.

[Hidden Eye]

18th 2025 Pick + 2026 via Phi First Round Pick+2025 2 2nds+1 2026 2nd round pick for 2025 Brooklyns Lottery Pick

[dckingsfan]

18th 2025 Pick + 2026 via Phi First Round Pick+2025 2 2nds+1 2026 2nd round pick for 2025 Brooklyns Lottery Pick

I say no. We need to hit on a player and then have picks to build around that player.

[doclinkin]

14th pick looks really good, 12th pick not so much. I wonder if the pickers were flipped if the results would flip as well.

Either way, it seems like you want to stay in the top 10. 18 for 26 & 27 would be nice.

Yeah. The Roland Beech study ^^^ was from 2009 so the chart isn't really current. But in general over the various studies I've seen the tiers have been:

#1 overall.
Top 5.
Lottery.
Then the curve tends to flatten out in a steady decline into the 30's before it drops off a cliff again the rest of the 2nd round.

You can get useful players at any particular pick in the draft. Bench guys and role players. There are outliers in every draft who outperform most of the guys ahead of them. Every year somebody falls. Overall though you are looking at a thicker cloud of standout players the higher up you go. It's not absolute. Mistakes are made. It is a reasonable argument to say you'd rather drop down a few spots and get extra picks if there are a cluster of guys you rate similarly. But Dawkins has been doing the exact opposite and so far I appreciate his results.

And like I said, if I'm dropping back I'd rather get a future pick than 2+ guaranteed lower ones. At some point the NIL market shakes out and we get better seasoned better skilled players coming out in addition to the one-and-done talent. The draft class won't be this small every year. Future drafts will have added value.

[dckingsfan]

14th pick looks really good, 12th pick not so much. I wonder if the pickers were flipped if the results would flip as well.

Either way, it seems like you want to stay in the top 10. 18 for 26 & 27 would be nice.

Yeah. The Roland Beech study ^^^ was from 2009 so the chart isn't really current. But in general over the various studies I've seen the tiers have been:

#1 overall.
Top 5.
Lottery.
Then the curve tends to flatten out in a steady decline into the 30's before it drops off a cliff again the rest of the 2nd round.

You can get useful players at any particular pick in the draft. Bench guys and role players. There are outliers in every draft who outperform most of the guys ahead of them. Every year somebody falls. Overall though you are looking at a thicker cloud of standout players the higher up you go. It's not absolute. Mistakes are made. It is a reasonable argument to say you'd rather drop down a few spots and get extra picks if there are a cluster of guys you rate similarly. But Dawkins has been doing the exact opposite and so far I appreciate his results.

And like I said, if I'm dropping back I'd rather get a future pick than 2+ guaranteed lower ones. At some point the NIL market shakes out and we get better seasoned better skilled players coming out in addition to the one-and-done talent. The draft class won't be this small every year. Future drafts will have added value.

In a sense, NIL will negate some studies moving forward (IMO). Either way, what you are positing stands. I would also add that there is a variable involved that I haven't seen accounted for - who is making the picks. SA had a really good run making great picks later in the draft (for example). Others, not so much.