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jalengreen wrote:Bookies in Vegas did not believe that the Lakers were a shoo-in for the WCF, as you originally claimed. Speaking of admitting that you’re wrong..
Djoker wrote:
Finally a common sense post.
Nothing I've been saying in this thread is really outlandish. Nor have I been calling Lebron out for underperforming. I'm simply saying that a lot of Lebron fans in this thread and elsewhere push him to a really high level (and yes there've been many Lebron top 5 posts in this thread if you scroll back) but then refuse to hold him to those lofty standards.
Djoker wrote:jalengreen wrote:Bookies in Vegas did not believe that the Lakers were a shoo-in for the WCF, as you originally claimed. Speaking of admitting that you’re wrong..
Lakers were 4th in title odds among all teams and 2nd in the West from March 1st until the beginning of the playoffs.
https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nba-main/?y=2024-2025&sa=nba&a=finals&o=r
Djoker wrote:Ok here is the concrete data. Note that I included many impact metrics that like Lebron so I'm not cherrypicking by any means. If there are any you feel that I missed, please post them.
Raw ON/ON-OFF (BBR)
2019: +2.4/+8.2
2020: +9.0/+9.9
2021: +8.6/+10.6
2022: -2.1/+2.1
2023: +5.1/+8.8
2024: +4.1/+9.9
2025: -0.3/-5.3
Average: +3.6/+6.0
RAPM (The Basketball Database)
2019: 2.64 (19th)
2020: 4.78 (4th)
2021: 3.95 (8th)
2022: 0.39 (201st)
2023: 3.33 (15th)
2024: 0.60 (86th)
2025: N/A
xRAPM (xrapm.com)
2019: 5.3 (10th)
2020: 6.8 (3rd)
2021: 6.6 (1st)
2022: 5.4 (8th)
2023: 4.3 (16th)
2024: 5.1 (8th)
2025: 2.2 (50th)
Luck Adjusted-ON/OFF (The Basketball Database)
2019: 9.3 (94th percentile) ~15th
2020: 8.0 (91st percentile) ~20th
2021: 10.4 (94th percentile) ~15th
2022: 3.3 (74th percentile) ~75th
2023: 10.6 (94th percentile) ~15th
2024: -3.3 (43rd percentile) ~160th
With ~300 players per season, 94th percentile means there is roughly 15 or so players above him.
RAPTOR (NBArapm)
2019: 5.6 (16th)
2020: 7.8 (4th)
2021: 6.5 (9th)
2022: 4.7 (14th)
LEBRON (NBArapm)
2019: 4.9 (9th)
2020: 5.5 (4th)
2021: 5.3 (6th)
2022: 3.4 (14th)
2023: 4.1 (10th)
2024: 3.0 (19th)
2025: 2.3 (25th)
MAMBA (NBArapm)
2019: 6.1 (6th)
2020: 7.7 (3rd)
2021: 7.5 (2nd)
2022: 6.9 (4th)
2023: 5.9 (10th)
2024: 6.5 (5th)
2025: 2.6 (42nd)
DARKO (NBArapm)
2019: 6.0 (4th)
2020: 6.4 (2nd)
2021: 6.4 (2nd)
2022: 5.5 (3rd)
2023: 4.2 (12th)
2024: 4.6 (12th)
2025: 3.7 (12th)
Lebron James ON Court ORtg (rORtg) Regular Season / Playoffs (NBA.com)
2019: 111.6 (+1.2) / -------
2020: 114.6 (+4.0) / 118.1 (+6.7)
2021: 115.0 (+2.7) / 111.4 (+0.1)
2022: 113.2 (+1.2) / -------
2023: 118.5 (+3.7) / 114.4 (+1.1)
2024: 119.7 (+4.4) / 112.4 (-0.6)
2025: 112.7 (-1.0) / 108.7 (-2.1)
The only "top 5 offensive player" type number is the 2020 PS.
Regular Season Accolades
2019: 3rd Team, 11th in MVP
2020: 1st Team, 2nd in MVP
2021: 2nd Team, 13th in MVP
2022: 3rd Team, 10th in MVP
2023: 3rd Team, no MVP votes
2024: 3rd Team, no MVP votes
So yes 2019 is a clear season of decline. Even if we disregard the fact that he missed 27 games which is a third of the season, his average rank in all the impact metrics above is 11th. That is a massive decline from prime Lebron.
2020 is a bounceback season of sorts but it's kind of a weird year where many other stars were injured, namely Steph and Durant. Lebron finished an average of 5th in the above metrics in 2020 so you can pencil him in as top 5 but it's not super clear cut. It's not unreasonable to put five other names over him based on the regular season alone.
2021 is the year he looks pretty good with an average ranking of 6th in above metrics before the Solomon Hill injury but you can't just discount the injury. We are talking about being consistently top 5 and he wasn't top 5 for that entire regular season considering all the missed games and his play post-injury. A healthy Lebron could be top 5 but that's a hypothetical.
2022 is just a horrible down year. Nothing much to add there. Ends up 45th on average.
2023 he ends up 13th on average. Again misses a lot of games like the last few years too.
2024 he ends up 48th on average.
2025 we still don't have all the numbers because all the sites haven't been updated but he's unlikely to finish higher than in 2024.
If we look at the PS, he looks great in 2020 arguably the BITW. But he missed the playoffs completely in 2019 and 2022 and looks mediocre in 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. I would argue he isn't top 5 in any postseason as a Laker minus 2020 and the Lakers' offenses in the PS also couldn't even eclipse league average level. Either way, he definitely doesn't meet the criteria for consistently top 5.
PistolPeteJR wrote:IG2 wrote:PistolPeteJR wrote:
I agree with a lot of what you said, but I don’t agree that he wasn’t a top-10 player this season, playoffs (small sample size) included. What 10 players would be definitively have in front of him?
Jokic
Giannis
SGA
Tatum
Luka
Ant
Mitchell
Brunson
AD
Kawhi
Curry
KD
Wemby
I’m not taking KD, Mitchell, Curry, Brunson, or Kawhi over LeBron this season.
Kawhi barely played, the first three I think it’s clear LeBron was better, and Brunson’s defensive issues drop him down for me.
jalengreen wrote:According to this link:
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/futures/eastern-western-conference-odds/
The odds and corresponding implied probability to win the WCF on April 17th were:
- Thunder: -153 (50.4%)
- Lakers: +538 (13.1%)
- Clippers: +538 (13.1%)
- Warriors: +725 (10.1%)
- Nuggets: +1383 (5.6%)
- Timberwolves: +2083 (3.8%)
- Rockets: +2400 (3.3%)
- Grizzlies: +15767 (0.5%)
And ofc, this is with the books having to factor in the fact that a Lakers team with Luka and LeBron is going to have a disproportionate amount of public money bet on them:But as good as the Thunder are, they’ve remained a relatively unpopular choice with BetMGM players. As of April 28, Oklahoma City is still just the No. 5 most popular championship bet, trailing a few more public franchises.
By comparison, the Los Angeles Lakers and Celtics are responsible for more than one-quarter of all championship bets. The Celtics drew heavy action early as a favorite to repeat, while the Lakers have taken massive volume at BetMGM since Dallas traded Luka Dončić.
OKC’s 9.6% ticket share is likely a result of the short return and comparatively small market size. A Thunder championship would be a great result for the sportsbook; BetMGM’s largest liabilities in the futures book are the Lakers, Warriors, and Pistons.
[...]
Unsurprisingly, the market loves the Lakers, who paired LeBron James and Luka Dončić in the middle of the season. Austin Reaves gives Los Angeles a strong triumvirate, but the lack of a quality center will likely derail the run eventually. ()
Regardless, more than 20% of the Western Conference handle is on the Lakers – more than any other team this year.
So yeah, the Lakers were viewed as among that second tier of teams in the conference behind the "okay everybody knows they're gonna win" favorites in OKC. But even with the public money boost of being, well, the Lakers, their odds didn't stand out above the rest of that tier.
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
rk2023 wrote:jalengreen wrote:According to this link:
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/futures/eastern-western-conference-odds/
The odds and corresponding implied probability to win the WCF on April 17th were:
- Thunder: -153 (50.4%)
- Lakers: +538 (13.1%)
- Clippers: +538 (13.1%)
- Warriors: +725 (10.1%)
- Nuggets: +1383 (5.6%)
- Timberwolves: +2083 (3.8%)
- Rockets: +2400 (3.3%)
- Grizzlies: +15767 (0.5%)
And ofc, this is with the books having to factor in the fact that a Lakers team with Luka and LeBron is going to have a disproportionate amount of public money bet on them:But as good as the Thunder are, they’ve remained a relatively unpopular choice with BetMGM players. As of April 28, Oklahoma City is still just the No. 5 most popular championship bet, trailing a few more public franchises.
By comparison, the Los Angeles Lakers and Celtics are responsible for more than one-quarter of all championship bets. The Celtics drew heavy action early as a favorite to repeat, while the Lakers have taken massive volume at BetMGM since Dallas traded Luka Dončić.
OKC’s 9.6% ticket share is likely a result of the short return and comparatively small market size. A Thunder championship would be a great result for the sportsbook; BetMGM’s largest liabilities in the futures book are the Lakers, Warriors, and Pistons.
[...]
Unsurprisingly, the market loves the Lakers, who paired LeBron James and Luka Dončić in the middle of the season. Austin Reaves gives Los Angeles a strong triumvirate, but the lack of a quality center will likely derail the run eventually. (
Regardless, more than 20% of the Western Conference handle is on the Lakers – more than any other team this year.
So yeah, the Lakers were viewed as among that second tier of teams in the conference behind the "okay everybody knows they're gonna win" favorites in OKC. But even with the public money boost of being, well, the Lakers, their odds didn't stand out above the rest of that tier.
Ignoring the thread and discussion of this, it’s pretty crazy as a side note - that 2-4 odds’ wise all could be eliminated after tonight.
IG2 wrote:Djoker wrote:
Finally a common sense post.
Nothing I've been saying in this thread is really outlandish. Nor have I been calling Lebron out for underperforming. I'm simply saying that a lot of Lebron fans in this thread and elsewhere push him to a really high level (and yes there've been many Lebron top 5 posts in this thread if you scroll back) but then refuse to hold him to those lofty standards.
You'll need to quote some of these proclamations because I can't recall anyone this season touting LeBron as Top 5 in this thread or even on the general board. I think it's just an excuse for the creepy MJ/Kobe crowd to hate on him.
Also, when you've hit a certain age in sports and still playing at a high level, everything is gravy. Nobody is going to hold you "accountable" because you aren't supposed to be doing that anyway. LeBron's GOAT longevity has been so insane that he's more than earned the right for people to focus on the positives only. This, of course, bothers the creepy MJ/Kobe crowd because they soothe their insecurities by hating on LeBron. Every misstep, even at 40, is supposed to be this testament to why he isn't [insert agenda]. These losers are just salty Kobe's last relevant season came at 34 and 39/40 year old MJ as a Wizard was a notably inferior player to 39/40 year old LeBron.
Djoker wrote:IG2 wrote:Djoker wrote:
Finally a common sense post.
Nothing I've been saying in this thread is really outlandish. Nor have I been calling Lebron out for underperforming. I'm simply saying that a lot of Lebron fans in this thread and elsewhere push him to a really high level (and yes there've been many Lebron top 5 posts in this thread if you scroll back) but then refuse to hold him to those lofty standards.
You'll need to quote some of these proclamations because I can't recall anyone this season touting LeBron as Top 5 in this thread or even on the general board. I think it's just an excuse for the creepy MJ/Kobe crowd to hate on him.
Also, when you've hit a certain age in sports and still playing at a high level, everything is gravy. Nobody is going to hold you "accountable" because you aren't supposed to be doing that anyway. LeBron's GOAT longevity has been so insane that he's more than earned the right for people to focus on the positives only. This, of course, bothers the creepy MJ/Kobe crowd because they soothe their insecurities by hating on LeBron. Every misstep, even at 40, is supposed to be this testament to why he isn't [insert agenda]. These losers are just salty Kobe's last relevant season came at 34 and 39/40 year old MJ as a Wizard was a notably inferior player to 39/40 year old LeBron.
I'm sorry. There's no such thing as focusing only on the positives. If a player is considered top 5 in the league, then he should be finishing top 5 in MVP, getting 1st Team All-NBA, producing amazing box numbers, closing out 4th quarters, scoring very highly in impact metrics like the ones I posted, beating underdog opponents in the playoffs... If he's not doing any or god forbid most of those things, then criticism will come and people will realize that said player is overrated and drop him down accordingly. Player evaluation follows a scientific method of sorts. If evidence supports a claim, one feels confident to double down. If evidence does not support a claim, then a new hypothesis is generated.
The reason I don't blame Lebron for how he's performed in these recent playoffs is that I don't rank him that high to begin with. He's performed roughly as expected for a fringe top 10 or safe top 15 player which is my ranking of him. And I've posted a ton of metrics and rationale to defend my position. You can disagree with it but I'm making a well-defended claim here. Coincidentally, no one responded to the data I posted directly.
No player ever earns immunity from criticism. The so called gravy doesn't exist. Of course, do Lebron's shortcomings in his late 30's well past his prime significantly diminish his legacy? Of course not. But it is still a part of his story, the good and the bad. Just like MJ's Wizards years are brought up because he struggled and Kareem getting outworked by Moses in 1983, or outplayed by Hakeem in 1986 or falling off the cliff in 1988 and 1989. Those things are brought up when discussing his career. He doesn't get free credit for his great performance in the 1985 Finals but then a free pass for all the surrounding years. It simply doesn't work like that. And MJ doesn't get a free pass for his Wizards years. Lebron being a better player at age 39/40 is a fact when discussing their careers. It's not a big deal in most people's rankings but it does exist.
parsnips33 wrote:Lol becoming LeBron's teammate might be the single worst thing that can happen to a player's reputation
parsnips33 wrote:Lol becoming LeBron's teammate might be the single worst thing that can happen to a player's reputation