2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West Semifinals: #6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs #7 Golden State Warriors (GSW leads 1-0)

[ShootersShoot]

What did Jalen Green do last series?

Yea thats the point..he didnt do much of anything and they still took it to 7...

Jimmy was hobbled and Amen is really good. Houston was the 2 seed after all.

Sure but logically it would make sense the warriors would have a harder time dealing with anthony edwards and mcdaniels versus brooks and jgreen..

[reload141]

Warriors in 6. Minny is too young and doesn’t have the defense that Houston had

[TimberKat]

I read some arguments about how bad JJ coaching cost LA the series and JJ only use 5 players in game 3 was such a bad idea. Do you guys know how many minutes did Luka and LBJ played in that infamous game? 40 mins each. How many minutes did you think Butler and Curry played in game 7 before getting on the plane to Minneapolis? 45 for Butler and 46 for Curry.

If GSW couldn't play Adam off the court with a small lineup until they put in Loony, what makes you think the small lineup would work for Gobert? Adams got more post up moved and is quicker?

If GSW defense can't stop Amen, how do they stop Ant?

GSW did had an impressive streak after the Butler trade but that was also in a time where every Warriors were hitting 3s including Draymond and Payton. Kerr probably hit some in the games too. I didn't see the same barrage of shooting in the Houston series.

If GSW is going to win, it will be because they got crazy shot making again and Wolves choked as the favorite. Although round two is about time when Butler chokes in the playoffs, if Draymond don't choke Gobert first.

[Sealab2024]

This has me more worried than LA for sure. GS has 2 bonafide offensive weapons in crunch time, a defensive/secondary passing big man (relatively speaking) and role players.

I think Minny takes it, but that it takes 7 and GS loses in part because of wear and tear after a 7 game series to open up the playoffs, not necessarily because they're overmatched.

[Klomp]

That’s why the Wolves are so hard to predict. As an underdog they have been great. Very impressive vs the Suns/Nuggets/Lakers and they probably should have won that Grizzlies series as well. Then as a favorite they got trounced by the Mavs in 5. Don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it.

I mean it was just 1 series where they were the favorite...not much of a sample size to go with

True but people seem to think the Wolves are a lock in this series based on the 1 series vs the Lakers. Going into the playoffs I don’t think many people thought the Wolves were “much” better than the Rockets.

No but I bet a lot of people thought the Lakers were much better than the Rockets.

[Klomp]

FWIW Warriors rae 3-1 against the Timberwolves and that's all without Jimmy.

Yeah and the Suns went 4-0 against the Timberwolves during the 2023-24 regular season.....and the Timberwolves went 3-1 against Dallas.

The postseason is a different game. All four matchups were a full month before the all-star game, there's not much to be taken from them.

[cupcakesnake]

Wolves were definitely not the same team all year...Wolves were a 0.500 team until like mid-January (W/L record was 22-21 during middle of January)..they struggled in first half of season with incorporating Randle into offense and few other issues...but from January onwards, they started playing lot better. then they finished the 2nd half of the season extremely strong (27-12). They had the 2nd best Net rating in the West across entire season. Problem was that they lost lot of close games...their actual performance was better than their record.

Pretty negligible difference between the Wolves and Warriors from the time of the Jimmy trade. Warriors were +9.6 (31 games post Jimmy trade) and Wolves were +8.5 over their final 40. Both played easy schedules down the stretch, but the Warriors was even easier than the numbers due to a crazy stretch where any time they played a good team, the opponent sat their star/stars.

You can't just take the Warriors best stretch and compare it to the Wolves whole season. The Wolves started badly, had some mid-season injuries where they started establishing their identity, and then a pretty monster blitz of the league over the final 30ish games.

Wolves a +8 team the whole second half, and the Warriors are a +9 team their final 30 games. Calling us +5 means the Warriors are +3. Want to focus on the Warriors best stretch, then do the same for the Wolves.

Comparing the Lakers and Rockets by saying everything bad about the Lakers and everything good about the Rockets seems a little biased. Lakers were widely picked to beat the Wolves. Golden State was widely picked to beat the Rockets. Houston had some serious low hanging fruit to attack offensively. The Warriors unique defense was only really tested on the boards, because it's not a crazy accomplishment to guard a Sengun/FVV led offense surrounded by several bad shooters. I'm not sure how proud Golden State fans should be of this series win in 7, but I picked the Rockets, so I think it's pretty cool. I think the Warriors are like a better version of the Lakers and will be a tougher matchup for the Wolves.

Ultimately, whilst we were lucky to get out of the rockets series I do believe we were a fair amount better than them. Thing is, this team has always played with it’s food. Especially this season. They got up 3-1 and coasted, they knew they were better.

Ultimately I think the teams are close and it probably comes down to 1-2 big role player games like the hield one we just had. Dubs need one of podz, hield or moody to play well on any given night to be in with a chance. Then just hope experience gets them through.

I agree. In most NBA playoff series, I feel one team emerges with the more obvious set of advantages. They don't always win. The disadvantaged team's job is to make changes or just muck things up enough to give themselves a chance to steal games and ultimately a series. Each game is always played around this dynamic: a team trying to keep it's advantage while the opponent tries to mitigate it.

It was pretty clear the Warriors held the better set of advantages. They had Steph and easier ways to score. The default was that Steph was probably going to shoot you to death while Jimmy got pull ups and free throws. Their defensive default was being able to guard everyone 1-on-1. The Houston default was... Alperen Sengun trying to score against Draymond single coverage, FVV hoping for a hot night, everyone else missing a ton of shots, and then bringing in Steven Adams to give the whole team multiple chances to correct those misses. The Adams advantage ended up being crazy. It corrected their offense just enough that when paired with the really good Houston defense, they had a real chance at upending the Warriors advantage every night. Muck up Steph, hit his thumb a bunch, and maybe Rockets have a chance. It ended up going 7, and I think that's really impressive work by Udoka, Adams and the rest of those boys. At the outset of the series, I thought the defense and the rebounding might mean Houston had the advantage, but after the first 2 games it was clear that Golden State having actual legit offensive options was going to give them an easier path to winning.

I think Minnesota has the advantages in this series (we'll see soon enough). We're bigger, faster, and have less obvious matchup questions. However, a crafty veteran team like Golden State is better equipped than a younger team to muck things up an flip those advantages. They'll try to find ways to make Ant overthink, neuter Rudy on offense, frustrate Juju etc. I feared the Lakers finding ways to do this with their offense, and I fear Golden State more because they can do it on both ends. Jimmy Butler has long been a master of finding competitive edges, and Draymond is just as demonic. Steph is just always an automatic problem. You know he's going off at some point, you just want to harrass him into a couple more bad games than the Warriors can handle.

Minnesota is a potent mix of rim drives, shooting, and size. I'm hoping Golden State can't deal with all of these things at once. The Lakers certainly couldn't, but the Warriors are a better version of them, defensively. Draymond is an actual source of rim protection, and he can shut down a big man matchup if needed. Jimmy can masquerade as a big in terms of putting a strong, smart body on people (and he's way more mobile than Lebron or anyone like that the lakers said this about.)

[cupcakesnake]

I mean it was just 1 series where they were the favorite...not much of a sample size to go with

True but people seem to think the Wolves are a lock in this series based on the 1 series vs the Lakers. Going into the playoffs I don’t think many people thought the Wolves were “much” better than the Rockets.

No but I bet a lot of people thought the Lakers were much better than the Rockets.

I don't think anyone was obviously better than anyone in the West, in terms of the 2-7 seeds (would have been 8 if Memphis hadn't faded so hard at the end). 2-4 games without a meaningful point differential advantage is just nothing.

[dWadeOwnzYou]

The media still hasn't learn a thing from the Wolves/Lakers series. They all picking the Warriors to advance...except for Charles Barkley. LOL The only person picking the Wolves.

[xdrta+]

The media still hasn't learn a thing from the Wolves/Lakers series. They all picking the Warriors to advance...except for Charles Barkley. LOL The only person picking the Wolves.

Really, all? Looking at ESPN predictions:
Final tally:
Minnesota 11, Golden State 1

[Klomp]

I think Minnesota has the advantages in this series (we'll see soon enough). We're bigger, faster, and have less obvious matchup questions. However, a crafty veteran team like Golden State is better equipped than a younger team to muck things up an flip those advantages. They'll try to find ways to make Ant overthink, neuter Rudy on offense, frustrate Juju etc. I feared the Lakers finding ways to do this with their offense, and I fear Golden State more because they can do it on both ends. Jimmy Butler has long been a master of finding competitive edges, and Draymond is just as demonic. Steph is just always an automatic problem. You know he's going off at some point, you just want to harrass him into a couple more bad games than the Warriors can handle.

Most of GSW's veteran playoff experience is contained to their Big 3 though. Beyond Curry, Green and Butler, Minnesota I'd argue has the advantage in experience.

Career playoff games
Draymond Green 164
Stephen Curry 154
Jimmy Butler 125
Mike Conley 98
Kevon Looney 84
Rudy Gobert 74
Donte DiVincenzo 44
Anthony Edwards 32
Moses Moody 32
Gary Payton II 30
Jonathan Kuminga 29
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27
Jaden McDaniels 27
Naz Reid 26
Julius Randle 20
Buddy Hield 11
Brandin Podziemski 7
Quinten Post 7

[CS707]

I think Minnesota has the advantages in this series (we'll see soon enough). We're bigger, faster, and have less obvious matchup questions. However, a crafty veteran team like Golden State is better equipped than a younger team to muck things up an flip those advantages. They'll try to find ways to make Ant overthink, neuter Rudy on offense, frustrate Juju etc. I feared the Lakers finding ways to do this with their offense, and I fear Golden State more because they can do it on both ends. Jimmy Butler has long been a master of finding competitive edges, and Draymond is just as demonic. Steph is just always an automatic problem. You know he's going off at some point, you just want to harrass him into a couple more bad games than the Warriors can handle.

Most of GSW's veteran playoff experience is contained to their Big 3 though. Beyond Curry, Green and Butler, Minnesota I'd argue has the advantage in experience.

Career playoff games
Draymond Green 164
Stephen Curry 154
Jimmy Butler 125
Mike Conley 98
Kevon Looney 84
Rudy Gobert 74
Donte DiVincenzo 44
Anthony Edwards 32
Moses Moody 32
Gary Payton II 30
Jonathan Kuminga 29
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27
Jaden McDaniels 27
Naz Reid 26
Julius Randle 20
Buddy Hield 11
Brandin Podziemski 7
Quinten Post 7

How does it math when you take away Minnesota's 3 most experienced players lol.

[cupcakesnake]

I think Minnesota has the advantages in this series (we'll see soon enough). We're bigger, faster, and have less obvious matchup questions. However, a crafty veteran team like Golden State is better equipped than a younger team to muck things up an flip those advantages. They'll try to find ways to make Ant overthink, neuter Rudy on offense, frustrate Juju etc. I feared the Lakers finding ways to do this with their offense, and I fear Golden State more because they can do it on both ends. Jimmy Butler has long been a master of finding competitive edges, and Draymond is just as demonic. Steph is just always an automatic problem. You know he's going off at some point, you just want to harrass him into a couple more bad games than the Warriors can handle.

Most of GSW's veteran playoff experience is contained to their Big 3 though. Beyond Curry, Green and Butler, Minnesota I'd argue has the advantage in experience.

Career playoff games
Draymond Green 164
Stephen Curry 154
Jimmy Butler 125
Mike Conley 98
Kevon Looney 84
Rudy Gobert 74
Donte DiVincenzo 44
Anthony Edwards 32
Moses Moody 32
Gary Payton II 30
Jonathan Kuminga 29
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27
Jaden McDaniels 27
Naz Reid 26
Julius Randle 20
Buddy Hield 11
Brandin Podziemski 7
Quinten Post 7

That's too significant an experience advantage amongst their 3 biggest minute getters to just shove to the side. It's more than double the playoff games of our 3 most battle tested guys. Naz and Ju beating out Podz and Quentin Post is hardly a comfort!

[MNRunLeft]

Career playoff games
Julius Randle 20

Only 20 playoff games for Julius Randle is surprising, he has/had the reputation of a player who fell off significantly in the post season, reality might have been he just had a small sample size (in part because of his poor play).

[cupcakesnake]

I think Minnesota has the advantages in this series (we'll see soon enough). We're bigger, faster, and have less obvious matchup questions. However, a crafty veteran team like Golden State is better equipped than a younger team to muck things up an flip those advantages. They'll try to find ways to make Ant overthink, neuter Rudy on offense, frustrate Juju etc. I feared the Lakers finding ways to do this with their offense, and I fear Golden State more because they can do it on both ends. Jimmy Butler has long been a master of finding competitive edges, and Draymond is just as demonic. Steph is just always an automatic problem. You know he's going off at some point, you just want to harrass him into a couple more bad games than the Warriors can handle.

Most of GSW's veteran playoff experience is contained to their Big 3 though. Beyond Curry, Green and Butler, Minnesota I'd argue has the advantage in experience.

Career playoff games
Draymond Green 164
Stephen Curry 154
Jimmy Butler 125
Mike Conley 98
Kevon Looney 84
Rudy Gobert 74
Donte DiVincenzo 44
Anthony Edwards 32
Moses Moody 32
Gary Payton II 30
Jonathan Kuminga 29
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27
Jaden McDaniels 27
Naz Reid 26
Julius Randle 20
Buddy Hield 11
Brandin Podziemski 7
Quinten Post 7

That's too significant an experience advantage amongst their 3 biggest minute getters to just shove to the side. It's more than double the playoff games of our 3 most battle tested guys. Naz and Ju beating out Podz and Quentin Post is hardly a comfort!

It's like saying: beyond Robert, Naz, Jaden, and Randle... the Warriors actually have the advantage in terms of size.

[baller16]

Minny is a whole different beast than the Rockets. Anyone voting the Warriors are in for a suprise

[multo]

Just like the Houston series, this is about youth/athleticism vs experience. Now this time, will the youth/athleticism be too much or the old heads still hang on to the thread? Warriors in 7 but up next, OKC will be just on another level.

[MNRunLeft]

Just like the Houston series, this is about youth/athleticism vs experience. Now this time, will the youth/athleticism be too much or the old heads still hang on to the thread? Warriors in 7 but up next, OKC will be too much in the end.

Difference between Houston and Minnesota experience level is one was watching the playoffs from home last season and the other beat KD/Booker and Jokic on the way to the western conference finals.

[multo]

Just like the Houston series, this is about youth/athleticism vs experience. Now this time, will the youth/athleticism be too much or the old heads still hang on to the thread? Warriors in 7 but up next, OKC will be too much in the end.

Difference between Houston and Minnesota experience level is one was watching the playoffs from home last season and the other beat KD/Booker and Jokic on the way to the western conference finals.

I understand but it's still about match ups. Why did Luka make quick work of the same impressive team last year?

[Klomp]

Just like the Houston series, this is about youth/athleticism vs experience. Now this time, will the youth/athleticism be too much or the old heads still hang on to the thread? Warriors in 7 but up next, OKC will be too much in the end.

The only Rockets who had at least a single game of playoff experience before the series were Adams (67), VanVleet (52), and Brooks (22).

Minnesota is not inexperienced. Six players in Minnesota's 8-man rotation had as much or experience than Brooks entering the playoffs. Another had played just one game less than Brooks. The last had played 15 games.