2025 Draft Prospect Thread

UNCNYC · Post #1521 » by **UNCNYC** » Mon May 5, 2025 11:33 am

Just thought of something. Just cause our front office were to get PICK #2 doesn't mean they will take Harper. Only way to pretty much guarantee they will take either Harper or Flagg is with pick #1.

JustBuzzin · Post #1522 » by **JustBuzzin** » Mon May 5, 2025 2:01 pm

8 more days Cooper Flagg will be ours

JMAC3 · Post #1523 » by **JMAC3** » Mon May 5, 2025 2:55 pm

UNCNYC favorite player = the last player he watched lol.

17 big board updates in the last 72 hours

JMAC3 · Post #1524 » by **JMAC3** » Mon May 5, 2025 3:23 pm

This draft is really young, Flagg, Bailey, Fears, Maluach and Jase are going to be 18 yrs old on draft night. Last year there was 1 player in the top 12, Tidjane. The year before that it was only Bilal that was 18. Year before that only Duren. Year before that 2, Giddey and Primo.

So again when evaluating these 5 guys just remember they would typically be the youngest player in the draft over the last 5 years.

JMAC3 · Post #1525 » by **JMAC3** » Mon May 5, 2025 3:29 pm

JMAC3 wrote:This draft is really young, Flagg, Bailey, Fears, Maluach and Jase are going to be 18 yrs old on draft night. Last year there was 1 player in the top 12, Tidjane. The year before that it was only Bilal that was 18. Year before that only Duren. Year before that 2, Giddey and Primo.

So again when evaluating these 5 guys just remember they would typically be the youngest player in the draft over the last 5 years.

Expanding on this, this is how I would categorize the top 12.

Guys younger than normal- Flagg, Bailey, Fears, Maluach, and Jase

Average - Harper, Tre Johnson, Kasper

Older- Queen, Murray Boyles, Knueppel, Edgecomb

Post #1526 » by **fatlever** » Mon May 5, 2025 5:55 pm

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

reminder
odds hornets pick at 1 thru 7

1= 14.0%
2 = 13.4
3 = 12.7
4 = 12.0
5 = 14.8
6 = 26.0
7 = 7.0

Rich4114 · Post #1527 » by **Rich4114** » Mon May 5, 2025 5:56 pm

UNCNYC wrote:Dash Daniels is in next years draft I think... Looks just like his brother... Wonder if he a stud like him. I just realized we never really had a good SG in Charlotte. Crash, Rice, and Mash were SF's...Gill, Jones and Curry were decent but not really GOOD. Wonder why we have neglected to even try to fill that void as of late... Sometimes you have to fill out the roster to really see what you have...

This year noone can accuse me of not paying attention to the FAVORITES cause I have Harper, VJ and Richardson as the top 3 picks lol.

Eddie Jones was REALLY good and an All Star, it just only lasted like 1 season or maybe 2 so he gets forgotten about often. We made the right trade at the time too with that one.

Rich4114 · Post #1528 » by **Rich4114** » Mon May 5, 2025 6:04 pm

I have been mentally preparing myself for the Hornets to have the 5th or 6th pick. So with that, Tre Johnson seems very likely there. And the more I watch of him, the more I like him. He's being compared to Devin Booker.

I do like the long-term outlook of VJ even if his shooting isn't nearly what Tre's is right now. I think he will be more of a complete 2-way guard.

Other guys in that range I am starting to really like are Fears (late riser, really noticed he's got good numbers getting to and finishing at the rim) and Jase Richardson who will have an advantage in that he has his father to help guide him to NBA life.

I remain high on Queen too because of the size/skill.

My big board would be:

Flagg
Harper
VJ
Ace
Fears
Richardson
Queen

Flagg is the one guy I am celebrating over. I'm stoked if we get Harper too but I'll be envious of whoever lands Flagg especially if it's a trash or undeserving org like the Sixers or Spurs.

Post #1529 » by **fatlever** » Mon May 5, 2025 6:21 pm

Rich4114 wrote:
UNCNYC wrote:Dash Daniels is in next years draft I think... Looks just like his brother... Wonder if he a stud like him. I just realized we never really had a good SG in Charlotte. Crash, Rice, and Mash were SF's...Gill, Jones and Curry were decent but not really GOOD. Wonder why we have neglected to even try to fill that void as of late... Sometimes you have to fill out the roster to really see what you have...

This year noone can accuse me of not paying attention to the FAVORITES cause I have Harper, VJ and Richardson as the top 3 picks lol.

Eddie Jones was REALLY good and an All Star, it just only lasted like 1 season or maybe 2 so he gets forgotten about often. We made the right trade at the time too with that one.

yeah, eddie was really good here. best 2-way wing in franchise history - tie with crash. he was a stud defensively and solid all around offensively. so underrated.

GiggitySmalls · Post #1530 » by **GiggitySmalls** » Mon May 5, 2025 7:08 pm

Why do people like Richardson? Hes not big at all. People say Edgecombe is small Jase is smaller. Hes not explosive. He doesn't do anything particularly well. What am I missing? Hes going to be a poor man's Eric Gordon minus athletic ability.

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Braggins · Post #1531 » by **Braggins** » Mon May 5, 2025 7:14 pm

Does google have the wrong birthday for Jase Richardson? Says October 2005 birthday and currently 19.

Post #1532 » by **fatlever** » Mon May 5, 2025 8:33 pm

Read on Twitter

lee represents hornets at lotto

Bassman · Post #1533 » by **Bassman** » Mon May 5, 2025 8:36 pm

fatlever wrote:https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

reminder
odds hornets pick at 1 thru 7

1= 14.0%
2 = 13.4
3 = 12.7
4 = 12.0
5 = 14.8
6 = 26.0
7 = 7.0

I presume those are the same odds for Utah and Washington, right? So why would our highest percentage odds of landing in a particular spot be THE SIXTH PICK AT 26%??? How is that fair, much less mathematically accurate for a team finished with the 3rd worst record???

The NBA just screws with this crap as a means to cover up the cheat factor. If they gift the Spurs with #1 there is NO MORE DEBATE ABOUT A RIGGED, DIRTY NBA LOTTERY.

JMAC3 · Post #1534 » by **JMAC3** » Mon May 5, 2025 8:44 pm

Bassman wrote:
fatlever wrote:https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

reminder
odds hornets pick at 1 thru 7

1= 14.0%
2 = 13.4
3 = 12.7
4 = 12.0
5 = 14.8
6 = 26.0
7 = 7.0

I presume those are the same odds for Utah and Washington, right? So why would our highest percentage odds of landing in a particular spot be THE SIXTH PICK AT 26%??? How is that fair, much less mathematically accurate for a team finished with the 3rd worst record???

The NBA just screws with this crap as a means to cover up the cheat factor. If they gift the Spurs with #1 there is NO MORE DEBATE ABOUT A RIGGED, DIRTY NBA LOTTERY.

Whichever teams don't win a top 4 pick, then it goes by record. So for Utah, the worst they can do is that 4 teams win the top 4 and then they end up 5th which will happen 48% of the time. Same with Washington, worst they can do is 6th, if 4 teams jump them AND Utah.

So for Charlotte to pick 7th. 4 teams have to jump us and both UTAH and Washington both get jumped by 4 teams, so in that scenario all three of us get screwed 7% of the time. So again, these are small chances to happen.

So the most likely 1 pick scenario is that
One of Utah/Washington win lottery- pretty likely.
Then 3 random teams win lottery.
None winner of Utah/Washington picks 5th
We pick 6th.

So again 3 teams from behind us have to jump for us to pick 6th.

Braggins · Post #1535 » by **Braggins** » Mon May 5, 2025 8:45 pm

Bassman wrote:
fatlever wrote:https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

reminder
odds hornets pick at 1 thru 7

1= 14.0%
2 = 13.4
3 = 12.7
4 = 12.0
5 = 14.8
6 = 26.0
7 = 7.0

I presume those are the same odds for Utah and Washington, right? So why would our highest percentage odds of landing in a particular spot be THE SIXTH PICK AT 26%??? How is that fair, much less mathematically accurate for a team finished with the 3rd worst record???

The NBA just screws with this crap as a means to cover up the cheat factor. If they gift the Spurs with #1 there is NO MORE DEBATE ABOUT A RIGGED, DIRTY NBA LOTTERY.

The new lottery odds are nonsense. The team with the worst record most likely pick spot is #5, at almost 50% odds. The 2nd teams most likely outcomes are #5 and then #6. The 3rd teams most likely outcome is 6th. 4th team is most likely #6 then #7. 5th teams most likely outcome is #7 then #6.

JMAC3 · Post #1536 » by **JMAC3** » Mon May 5, 2025 8:51 pm

Braggins wrote:
Bassman wrote:
fatlever wrote:https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

reminder
odds hornets pick at 1 thru 7

1= 14.0%
2 = 13.4
3 = 12.7
4 = 12.0
5 = 14.8
6 = 26.0
7 = 7.0

I presume those are the same odds for Utah and Washington, right? So why would our highest percentage odds of landing in a particular spot be THE SIXTH PICK AT 26%??? How is that fair, much less mathematically accurate for a team finished with the 3rd worst record???

The NBA just screws with this crap as a means to cover up the cheat factor. If they gift the Spurs with #1 there is NO MORE DEBATE ABOUT A RIGGED, DIRTY NBA LOTTERY.

The new lottery odds are nonsense. The team with the worst record most likely pick spot is #5, at almost 50% odds. The 2nd teams most likely outcomes are #5 and then #6. The 3rd teams most likely outcome is 6th. 4th team is most likely #6 then #7. 5th teams most likely outcome is #7 then #6.

Yeah if you look as most likely pick then yes, but Hornets have 52.1% chance to pick top 4 vs 26% to pick 6th, still pretty good odds of winning a top 4 pick.

Or even a 27.4% chance to win top 2, vs 26% at 6. I think that is pretty fair.

JMAC3 · Post #1537 » by **JMAC3** » Mon May 5, 2025 9:14 pm

Ryan Kalkbrenner is a guy that I think a lot of folks on here would be a fan of in the 2nd round. 5 years in college, 7-1+, shot 34% from three this year and good shot blocker. Maybe not super high ceiling but probably a Pro for a 5+ yrs.

Adou Thiero, Miles Byrd and Dink Pate are interesting defensive wings with size.

SWedd523 · Post #1538 » by **SWedd523** » Mon May 5, 2025 10:36 pm

Braggins wrote:
Bassman wrote:
fatlever wrote:https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

reminder
odds hornets pick at 1 thru 7

1= 14.0%
2 = 13.4
3 = 12.7
4 = 12.0
5 = 14.8
6 = 26.0
7 = 7.0

I presume those are the same odds for Utah and Washington, right? So why would our highest percentage odds of landing in a particular spot be THE SIXTH PICK AT 26%??? How is that fair, much less mathematically accurate for a team finished with the 3rd worst record???

The NBA just screws with this crap as a means to cover up the cheat factor. If they gift the Spurs with #1 there is NO MORE DEBATE ABOUT A RIGGED, DIRTY NBA LOTTERY.

The new lottery odds are nonsense. The team with the worst record most likely pick spot is #5, at almost 50% odds. The 2nd teams most likely outcomes are #5 and then #6. The 3rd teams most likely outcome is 6th. 4th team is most likely #6 then #7. 5th teams most likely outcome is #7 then #6.

looked at from the other side:

somebody has to get the first pick and whileb the bottom team technically has a better chance to lose to the field, they also have the highest odds at #1

Every other team has similar outcome potential. it's a product of only rolling for the top 3 and then going by record.

EDIT: not to say I like the current flat odds. I hate it and would much prefer something more similar to how the NFL does it.

Post #1539 » by **Diop** » Mon May 5, 2025 11:26 pm

Read on Twitter

Rich4114 · Post #1540 » by **Rich4114** » Tue May 6, 2025 1:20 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Braggins wrote:
Bassman wrote:
I presume those are the same odds for Utah and Washington, right? So why would our highest percentage odds of landing in a particular spot be THE SIXTH PICK AT 26%??? How is that fair, much less mathematically accurate for a team finished with the 3rd worst record???

The NBA just screws with this crap as a means to cover up the cheat factor. If they gift the Spurs with #1 there is NO MORE DEBATE ABOUT A RIGGED, DIRTY NBA LOTTERY.

The new lottery odds are nonsense. The team with the worst record most likely pick spot is #5, at almost 50% odds. The 2nd teams most likely outcomes are #5 and then #6. The 3rd teams most likely outcome is 6th. 4th team is most likely #6 then #7. 5th teams most likely outcome is #7 then #6.

Yeah if you look as most likely pick then yes, but Hornets have 52.1% chance to pick top 4 vs 26% to pick 6th, still pretty good odds of winning a top 4 pick.

Or even a 27.4% chance to win top 2, vs 26% at 6. I think that is pretty fair.

It is fair in a one season context. It is not fair when you have teams who have been perennial winners, in the lottery for the first time in like a decade or recently had a dynasty, won a championship or won the lottery just two seasons ago and could easily jump 3 teams who have been fumbling around barely watchable for 3 years. I think there's something wrong with that model, it most likely keeps bad teams bad and good teams good.