2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West Semifinals: #6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs #7 Golden State Warriors (GSW leads 1-0)

[HiRez]

Kerr can't go small against Minnesota. I look for Looney and Draymond to be on the floor together a lot this series. Trace Jackson-Davis may end up out there at some point too. Randle vrs Green is as nasty as it gets. Minnesota is very physical.

i don’t think they have a choice. Kerr is stubborn too so they will stick with that small ball majority of the time.

Plus, Looney, TJD, and Draymond (at C) are all undersized anyway. GS doesn't even have the option to "go big". Biggest guy they have is Quinten Post, who can really shoot the long ball and might be able to pull Gobert out of the paint, or make them pay for sagging off. But he was very uneven shooting against the Rockets, and on the other end still has trouble because while he's 7 feet tall, he's not particularly wide or strong. Plus he's a rookie, and counting on a rookie to play a big part in the playoffs is risky.

[MNRunLeft]

I understand but it's still about match ups. Why did Luka make quick work of the same impressive team last year?

Wolves came off a long 7 game series were not healthy (not an excuse) and played poorly especially in games 1 and 2 both very winnable games. The Wolves lacked a secondary creator last season when Ant was gassed and KAT shot particularly poor in the Mavs series. I don't see the "matchup" that the warriors can exploit the same way the Mavericks did with Luka last season, there isn't a lob threat on the floor like Lively and Gafford and don't think anyone can break down the D the way Luka did.

The only real matchup advantage Golden State has is Steph Curry......unless you count Draymond's antics.

I think there are a lot of interesting matchups in the series but the they tend to be who's guarding Ant and if the Wolves go big who's guarding Randle. Will be interesting to see if Buckets is healthy enough to take the Ant matchup one on one and also does Draymond defend Randle or will he be the second line of defense on Rudy in the paint. Matchup wise things feel pretty straight forward for the Wolves Jaden likely chasing Curry with Ant taking on Buckets.

[shrink]

That’s why the Wolves are so hard to predict. As an underdog they have been great. Very impressive vs the Suns/Nuggets/Lakers and they probably should have won that Grizzlies series as well. Then as a favorite they got trounced by the Mavs in 5. Don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it.

I mean it was just 1 series where they were the favorite...not much of a sample size to go with

I’m with Hitachi on this one. In the last four series, they won the three they were underdogs (PHX, DEN, now LAL) and lost one (DAL). Over the last three seasons, Ant-led teams seemed to consistently beat the tougher teams in both conferences, and have great HTH records for playoff tie-breakers), but regularly lose to bad teams on random nights.

Finch used ESPN’s 11-0 Laker prediction as fuel for the Wolves. I hope nobody tells Ant they are favored over GSW!

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Kerr can't go small against Minnesota. I look for Looney and Draymond to be on the floor together a lot this series. Trace Jackson-Davis may end up out there at some point too. Randle vrs Green is as nasty as it gets. Minnesota is very physical.

i don’t think they have a choice. Kerr is stubborn too so they will stick with that small ball majority of the time.

Plus, Looney, TJD, and Draymond (at C) are all undersized anyway. GS doesn't even have the option to "go big". Biggest guy they have is Quinten Post, who can really shoot the long ball and might be able to pull Gobert out of the paint, or make them pay for sagging off. But he was very uneven shooting against the Rockets, and on the other end still has trouble because while he's 7 feet tall, he's not particularly wide or strong. Plus he's a rookie, and counting on a rookie to play a big part in the playoffs is risky.

I think their best bet is to throw Looney out there. If that's the case,Minnesota will leave Green open and he'll have to hit his threes when he takes them. Post, I agree on. He's a risky play out there and Gobert will murder him on the boards. Dealing with Randle is going to be a task in iteslf.

[shrink]

Just like the Houston series, this is about youth/athleticism vs experience. Now this time, will the youth/athleticism be too much or the old heads still hang on to the thread? Warriors in 7 but up next, OKC will be too much in the end.

Difference between Houston and Minnesota experience level is one was watching the playoffs from home last season and the other beat KD/Booker and Jokic on the way to the western conference finals.

I understand but it's still about match ups. Why did Luka make quick work of the same impressive team last year?

One of the main reasons was Ant fell hard on his tailbone in Game 6 of the DEN series, and was never the same. KAT came back early from a long injury. And what many Wolves say is that they hadn’t prepared for post-season that could push an 82 game season to over 100. Knocking out Jokic and the champs let them exhausted.

No offense to Luka, and, like many teams, the Wolves didn’t have a great answer to him, even if their roster was 100%. But if you’re comparing Luka from last year to this year, this year Luka faced a rested and healthy Wolves team.

[shrink]

I think Minnesota has the advantages in this series (we'll see soon enough). We're bigger, faster, and have less obvious matchup questions. However, a crafty veteran team like Golden State is better equipped than a younger team to muck things up an flip those advantages. They'll try to find ways to make Ant overthink, neuter Rudy on offense, frustrate Juju etc. I feared the Lakers finding ways to do this with their offense, and I fear Golden State more because they can do it on both ends. Jimmy Butler has long been a master of finding competitive edges, and Draymond is just as demonic. Steph is just always an automatic problem. You know he's going off at some point, you just want to harrass him into a couple more bad games than the Warriors can handle.

Most of GSW's veteran playoff experience is contained to their Big 3 though. Beyond Curry, Green and Butler, Minnesota I'd argue has the advantage in experience.

Career playoff games
Draymond Green 164
Stephen Curry 154
Jimmy Butler 125
Mike Conley 98
Kevon Looney 84
Rudy Gobert 74
Donte DiVincenzo 44
Anthony Edwards 32
Moses Moody 32
Gary Payton II 30
Jonathan Kuminga 29
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27
Jaden McDaniels 27
Naz Reid 26
Julius Randle 20
Buddy Hield 11
Brandin Podziemski 7
Quinten Post 7

I always wonder at what point that the number of games of playoff experience gets so high, that it’s a negative? Mike Conley leads the Wolves with 98, but his playoff expertise doesn’t make him as dangerous as Ant, it just means he’s old.

I would also add that Wolves GM Tim Connelly believes that to truly develop star players, you need to put them in critical playoff games as early as possible. It was one of the reasons he raided for Gobert, who didn’t fit the 21-year old Ant’s timeline. I think it was the right call, as we see Ant at age 23 already has 32 games of playoff experience, not scared of anyone.

[phanman]

Man I don't care how old KD and Bron were. Ant is putting together an impressive resume in regards to eliminating some of the best players in NBA history:
- KD & Book
- Jokic & Murray
- Luka & Bron

and now potentially Steph & Jimmy

[cpower]

Warriors got taken to 7 by a team that has an NCAA level offence. I get Minny's defense isn't as good a Houston, but this isn't going to be nearly as easy for them to stay in the game. Minny in 6.

They only got it to 7 because Vanvleet went god mode on his 3 point shooting.

Good point.

Houston was 22nd in the NBA in 3-pointers made this season. Minnesota was 5th. Golden State was 4th.
Houston was 21st in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season. Minnesota was 4th. Golden State was 15th.

Then Rockets were shooting 37% on 3s in the first round, Warriors 36%, Lakers 35%, Wolves 32%.

Is there else anything you can tell from these numbers? each match up is different

[WarriorGM]

Man I don't care how old KD and Bron were. Ant is putting together an impressive resume in regards to eliminating some of the best players in NBA history:
- KD & Book
- Jokic & Murray
- Luka & Bron

and now potentially Steph & Jimmy

I see this narrative being spun elsewhere too and find it funny.

Curry is building his own list:

Jokic, Morant, Doncic, Brunson, Tatum, Brown.

Is Ant really the big game hunter here or is he the trophy?

[AbeVigodaLive]

They only got it to 7 because Vanvleet went god mode on his 3 point shooting.

Good point.

Houston was 22nd in the NBA in 3-pointers made this season. Minnesota was 5th. Golden State was 4th.
Houston was 21st in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season. Minnesota was 4th. Golden State was 15th.

Then Rockets were shooting 37% on 3s in the first round, Warriors 36%, Lakers 35%, Wolves 32%.

Is there else anything you can tell from these numbers? each match up is different

And small sample sizes.

Minnesota was right at their season average (38%) after the first 4 games. Then, they went 7 - 47 in Game 5.
But it was a weird and inconsistent series for them, both on three-point makes and attempts:

Game 1: 21 - 42
Game 2: 5 - 25
Game 3: 13 - 36
Game 4: 14 - 36
Game 5: 7 - 47

[Edrees]

I have Wolves in 6. Just too much size and strength for this warriors team unless Curry goes ballistic for 4 games.

[firedavidkahn]

Read on Twitter

[guest81]

Man I don't care how old KD and Bron were. Ant is putting together an impressive resume in regards to eliminating some of the best players in NBA history:
- KD & Book
- Jokic & Murray
- Luka & Bron

and now potentially Steph & Jimmy

I see this narrative being spun elsewhere too and find it funny.

Curry is building his own list:

Jokic, Morant, Doncic, Brunson, Tatum, Brown.

Is Ant really the big game hunter here or is he the trophy?

Curry has been in the league a million years of course he should have a list. Ant has only played in 5 playoff series and has already eliminated those stars

[cpower]

Read on Twitter

RAPM is really bad when the sample size is small. you need like 100 games at least.

[Raonak]

Warriors in 6.

Rockets are better than the wolves.
Wolves have worse defense which is gonna make Steph pop open a lot more.
The Lakers made the wolves look like certified snipers. The reality is that wolves offense can be shut down by good defenses.

[LSWF]

Warriors in 6.

Rockets are better than the wolves.
Wolves have worse defense which is gonna make Steph pop open a lot more.
The Lakers made the wolves look like certified snipers. The reality is that wolves offense can be shut down by good defenses.

Lakers are better than the Warriors.
Warriors have worse defense which is gonna make Ant pop open a lot more.
The Rockets made the Warriors look like certified snipers. The reality is that warriors offense can be shut down by good defense.

[LSWF]

Wolves in 6

[Raonak]

Warriors in 6.

Rockets are better than the wolves.
Wolves have worse defense which is gonna make Steph pop open a lot more.
The Lakers made the wolves look like certified snipers. The reality is that wolves offense can be shut down by good defenses.

Lakers are better than the Warriors.
Warriors have worse defense which is gonna make Ant pop open a lot more.
The Rockets made the Warriors look like certified snipers. The reality is that warriors offense can be shut down by good defense.

Are you ok? Nothing you write makes sense.

Warriors have a substantially better defense than the lakers.
Rockets shut down warriors because they are a #2 defense.
Warriors never looked like snipers til buddy hield went crazy.

[TrueFan420]

It's the first time Golden State has been an underdog in a postseason series since 2014, when the Warriors were +170 underdogs against the Los Angeles Clippers in Round 1 and lost in seven games (per Sports Odds History's database).

With this in mind, plus an old Warriors team coming off a game 7, all the pressure is on the Wolves game 1. Will be interesting to see how each team comes out.

[LSWF]

Warriors in 6.

Rockets are better than the wolves.
Wolves have worse defense which is gonna make Steph pop open a lot more.
The Lakers made the wolves look like certified snipers. The reality is that wolves offense can be shut down by good defenses.

Lakers are better than the Warriors.
Warriors have worse defense which is gonna make Ant pop open a lot more.
The Rockets made the Warriors look like certified snipers. The reality is that warriors offense can be shut down by good defense.

Are you ok? Nothing you write makes sense.

Warriors have a substantially better defense than the lakers.
Rockets shut down warriors because they are a #2 defense.
Warriors never looked like snipers til buddy hield went crazy.

I'm doing great. I'm just mocking your rather simplistic take.