Bucks News, Transactions and Trade Ideas - 2025 Off-season

[German Athens]

Some DPE targets:

Niang
Oubre
Cody Martin
Mathurin
Conley
Thybulle
Mitchell Robinson

[soxperry]

Some DPE targets:

Niang
Oubre
Cody Martin
Mathurin
Conley
Thybulle
Mitchell Robinson

would be a waste to use it on any of those guys other than Mathurin...but then he would have to be happy only getting the mle the following year as thats the max we could pay him.

[German Athens]

Some DPE targets:

Niang
Oubre
Cody Martin
Mathurin
Conley
Thybulle
Mitchell Robinson

would be a waste to use it on any of those guys other than Mathurin...but then he would have to be happy only getting the mle the following year as thats the max we could pay him.

I’ll probably go through all the candidates and do an off-season primer shortly, but my best guess is we offer part of the DPE to Trent or KPJ, get early bird rights, and then offer them a longer contract next year.

[Bernman]

We have 4 trade exceptions that expire 2/6/25.

$7.2 million
$2.1 million
$793k
$266k

"Exceptions are essentially "grants" offering teams an additional way to sign players. Exceptions can be split up for multiple player signings, however only one of these exceptions may be used in a season and they cannot be combined."

Obviously the best use of those is to take on a player a team needs to dump for apron purposes but can they also use them in a S&T for a player? Can they use them to outright sign a player? Or in combination with other players to aggregate salary in a larger deal?

Justin Garcia seems to think you can use a TPE to sign a player, but I don't trust him. emunney? GAD?

He's a huge propagandist (just said the Kuz trade saved us), but maybe he meant for an s&t. That's a thing. A straight signing is not.

[LUKE23]

From everything I have read, it's extremely unlikely the Bucks receive a DPE for Lillard. He needs to be ruled out through June 15, 2026 by a NBA-appointed doctor.

They have:

$14.1M NTMLE
$5.1M BAE
$7.2M TPE (Midds trade)

[LUKE23]

Justin Garcia seems to think you can use a TPE to sign a player, but I don't trust him. emunney? GAD?

No, the TPE can be traded for a player up to the salary of the TPE ($7.2M).

[JayMKE]

I’m under the impression that Dame if the surgery and rehab is a success might be ready to go for the playoffs next season, idk what we could expect from him realistically tho

[LUKE23]

I’m under the impression that Dame if the surgery and rehab is a success might be ready to go for the playoffs next season, idk what we could expect from him realistically tho

He had a good year this year, but you could also tell he was losing a step to me. A year older after achilles, I'm not expecting much.

[Bernman]

The BAE also hard caps us at the 1st apron, so we might be averse to use it. They don't want back over the 2nd apron, but over the 1st the restrictions aren't nearly as bad. And it's going to be difficult not to flirt with that while getting better when you have a dead salary at over 58m.

This incentivizes them to re-sign their own guys more. Then go over the cap next yr to re-sign them for 10m each or whatever. But then we'll flirt w/ the 2nd apron at that pt. This is all a difficult balance to strike w/ the huge salaries into 2 players, again, 1 of which is even incapacitated.

[soxperry]

The BAE also hard caps us at the 1st apron, so we might be averse to use it. They don't want back over the 2nd apron, but over the 1st the restrictions aren't nearly as bad. And it's going to be difficult not to flirt with that while getting better when you have a dead salary at over 58m.

This incentivizes them to re-sign their own guys more. Then go over the cap next yr to re-sign them for 10m each or whatever. But then we'll flirt w/ the 2nd apron at that pt. This is all a difficult balance to strike w/ the huge salaries into 2 players, again, 1 of which is even incapacitated.

Using the mle also hard caps us at first apron and that is definitely happening. Theres really no good reason to go over the first apron in the 25-26 salary year. The only guys we want to pay more, we cant. If Brook ends up costing too much we probably just let him walk. Im certainly not sacrificing a chance to let Kpj develop to keep Brook.

[LUKE23]

Brook shouldn't be kept really in any scenario. They need to get younger and more athletic there.

[Bernman]

Using the mle also hard caps us at first apron and that is definitely happening. Theres really no good reason to go over the first apron in the 25-26 salary year. The only guys we want to pay more, we cant. If Brook ends up costing too much we probably just let him walk. Im certainly not sacrificing a chance to let Kpj develop to keep Brook.

I see that's true, if you use over the NTMLE amount. Which means it may be tough to use all these exceptions and re-up Bobby. They're at 141 alone, between Giannis, Dame, Kuz, & Pat. The projected 1st apron is 196.

MLE is 14 more. That's 155. BAE gets you to 160. The TPE to 167. That's maybe only 7 players. You need 8 more for a full roster. Let's say each gets minimums for around 2.5m average. That's 187, w/out Bobby, who takes you over.

You have to let Brook go. Maybe Bobby, unless you can't find a big for part/all of your MLE. Forego the TPE. And try to sneak 1-2 guys on fake minimums, w/ the handshake deal you'll get them next year, so you don't have half of a roster of genuine minimums. Makes it tough for depth.

[SupremeHustle]

Random thought that none of you will care about: I think Michael Redd was more overrated than I used to think. And I thought he was overrated.


Thanks for reading, guys.

[German Athens]

I wonder if Orlando will want to avoid the tax for another year before they have to pay Banchero.

They are currently slotted to be a 1st apron team, but I think this deal would give them the ability to duck the tax.

MKE: Goga Bitadze, Ousmane Dieng (use the TPE)
Okc: Pat, 2 2nds
Orlando: nothing

Okc gets back a couple 2nds for a player they probably aren’t looking to bring back, and they get expiring salary which we be important for the couple extensions they’ll look to offer.

Orlando sheds 8m and I think will duck the tax.

We get a good player in Goga who I think could capably fill the Brook defensive role who is on a very nice contract, and we get a younger player to kick the tires on.

[Profound23]

Random thought that none of you will care about: I think Michael Redd was more overrated than I used to think. And I thought he was overrated.


Thanks for reading, guys.

Crazy that right after we let Redd go, we found Redd 2.0.

[tedbrogen]

Upon looking at our salary table, the big pivot point is whether we get that injured player exception for Dame or not. If we do, it makes things very simple and we have a lot of flexibility. If not, we are likely to lose one of them. Making a trade of kuzma or pc to dump salary doesn't help this at all since we dont have bird rights on kpj or trent. It would only impact being able to pay our bird rights players more...and im not sure thats a huge priority. The one exception might be Brook if they deem him "still important."

Scenario 1: Dame is out the full year. Easy. You can now pay Kpj and Gary up to 14.1 each. One gets a multi year deal and the other gets a one year deal. There are good arguments for each, and theres an argument that we could ditch one of them if the right player is available in free agency. But thats too many variables for now.

Scenario 2: Dame thinks he can get back by playoffs and we dont access the exception. Now we can either split the mle between kpj and gary, give one the mle and the other the bae (assuming another team doesn't outbid), or give one the mle and let the other walk.

The rest of the table is pretty straightforward.

The following is Scenario 2, sans injury exception:

Guaranteed:

Giannis: 54M
Dame: 54M
Kuzma: 22M
Pat: 9M
AJ: 2.3M
Andre: 2.2M


If we assume the following (just to get a feel)

Bobby: 15M
Brook: 7M
Rollins: 5M
Sims: 2.4M
Mle: 14.1M (kpj or trent or fa)
Bae: 5.1M (fa)
One Vet Min: 2.4M

This puts us less than 100k under the first apron which we are now hard capped at due to mle and/or bae usage. So you can see how helpful the injured player exception would be, especially if we use it on kpj or gary instead of a fa. That way, it serves as a bridge to an off-season where they are now early bird eligible rather than a free agent who we would then struggle to keep.

I hope this was coherent enough. The more tried to explain the situation the more i realized how open ended it is.

To me this reads like an easy case to let Brook walk and use that TPE on an actual useful player and to cap Bobby’s first year salary at the MLE amount because no one is paying him more than that and it buys them breathing room under the first apron.

Also I think KPJ is easily retained with a two year BAE deal if you give him a player option in year two.

[Frank Nova]

My guess is Dame is back after all star break. That puts him roughly 10 months removed from surgery. Plenty of time to ramp up for another playoff push.

[tedbrogen]

Using the mle also hard caps us at first apron and that is definitely happening. Theres really no good reason to go over the first apron in the 25-26 salary year. The only guys we want to pay more, we cant. If Brook ends up costing too much we probably just let him walk. Im certainly not sacrificing a chance to let Kpj develop to keep Brook.

I see that's true, if you use over the NTMLE amount. Which means it may be tough to use all these exceptions and re-up Bobby. They're at 141 alone, between Giannis, Dame, Kuz, & Pat. The projected 1st apron is 196.

MLE is 14 more. That's 155. BAE gets you to 160. The TPE to 167. That's maybe only 7 players. You need 8 more for a full roster. Let's say each gets minimums for around 2.5m average. That's 187, w/out Bobby, who takes you over.

You have to let Brook go. Maybe Bobby, unless you can't find a big for part/all of your MLE. Forego the TPE. And try to sneak 1-2 guys on fake minimums, w/ the handshake deal you'll get them next year, so you don't have half of a roster of genuine minimums. Makes it tough for depth.

Sportrac has the Bucks at just under $165M for Giannis, Dame, Kuz, Bobby, Pat, KPJ, AJG, AJJ, Livingston, Smith, and one min salary roster charge (plus two two ways at $0 to get to 13 but they’ll retain Sims and Rollins to get to 13 anyways so no more min salary slots to add).

If we assume Bobby and KPJ opt out, that takes $16M off that number putting you at $149M.

MLE adds $14M
BAE adds $5M (KPJ?)
Reup Bobby should only be $14M (no reason to pay him more than MLE when no one else can/will)
Sims let’s say $3M
Rollins let’s say $5M
A min salary guy was baked in above
That’s a total of $41M putting you just under $190M with 14 players so you can then use most of that TPE exception and still be slightly under the apron with 15 players.

They do have that 2nd round pick, so if they got someone they wanted to roster they could skip out on the min salary slot and use the savings to have access to very close to if not all their largest TPE or they could wave Livingston and give his spot to the second round pick which would also save them a few hundred K.

So unless Sportrac is off, they can keep Bobby and use the full MLE, BAE, almost their full largest TPE, and a min salary guy if they let Brook walk.

Keeping Brook at the minimum is also an option as is keeping him via Bird rights at $7M or less but that would then block them from getting creative by using the TPE to absorb someone probably more useful.

[RiotPunch]

Justin Garcia seems to think you can use a TPE to sign a player, but I don't trust him. emunney? GAD?

No, the TPE can be traded for a player up to the salary of the TPE ($7.2M).

That's what I thought, but the Bucks media machine had me second guessing myself.

[BigO]

I don't think this is close to true, especially after the job Bud did in Phoenix.

I'm not saying you could get a great coach (not many of them), but certainly you could get one not as rigid as Bud or Doc.

You have Frank Vogel sitting out there who was canned in LA after doing a good job and who was canned in Phoenix after doing a good job. Both replacements for him were abysmal.

So I'd take Vogel in a heart beat or I'd try and find someone who has some hstory of changing defenses and offenses and isn't tied to lineups (all of these are the definition of Spoelstra).

Of course, having flexibility, while a prerequisite, isn't sufficient. Otherwise, we should have hired Nurse.

I truly hate to jump to Doc's defense here but I don't think he's rigid. I know it was obvious to all of us, but in the world of NBA coaching, changing the lineup and rotation like he did vs Indiana in reaction to the *April* emergence of a synergistic lineup is actually pretty radical. End of year interviews, I'm getting to the bottom of who pushed him to do that, and they're on my shortlist for next HC.

How about Doc's not rigid, but he's stubborn? You gotta have an ego to coach in this league and it can get the best of him often.

I don't care what you call it; stubborn, rigid or stupid, but there was plenty of evidence, both visual and statistical, that showed Kuzma to be horrible and Prince to be one dimensional.

There was no excuse for Doc not to change the lineups before the playoffs, let alone once they began.