The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES

[madmaxmedia]

Analytics bros can't figure it out.

3 > 2.

But also, 0 < 2. Go figure!

[madmaxmedia]

I think Mazzula has pushed 3 volume up high expecting the shots to win% to be linear but it appears to be parabolic. Celtics are shooting too many 3s at this point, if they do lose this series then I expect he will correct the plan next season.

That's the hope. I imagine it would be better if he adjusted a little more game to game, though.

Celtics are in unchartered territory, Mazzula explored. It doesn't make him a bad coach

Agreed. And to be fair, they've had the best offense in the league for two years running, are the defending champions, and they still defend very well.

This year, he's pushed it VERY far. Their offense regressed. Tatum regressed, and we are seeing the results of shooting variance when more than half of their shots are low-FG% 3s which are tough to reclaim as offensive rebounds.

This is my endless frustration with Tatum, and again, realizing that there's a heavy dose of coach influence here: he has the tools to do more than just bomb 3s. And he really needs to. He's a pretty good slasher, a pretty good post player, and he has a middie, he just doesn't use it anymore. He needs to be brutalizing people at the elbow and the nail when Ds tighten up on him. And a little more elbow post, not just mid-post. He could be so much more consistent and so much more dangerous on nights when his 3 isn't falling. He isn't all that from 3, he never has been, from the moment he stopped smashing it from the corners. His ATB 3pt shot is decent but non-elite, and that's not something you want to smash in volume.

So we'll have to see what comes next. Boston's due for at least one shooting variance swing in their favor, and I don't know that it would be a good thing, because it might bring some confirmation bias that this is the right strategy.

Great all around players improving their 3 point shot? That's awesome, makes them more versatile and dangerous.

Great all around players spamming 3's all the time? That turns them into just another NBA 3-point shooter.

[LFGK]

This serious? You watching what OG and Bridges are doing to their 2 top guns? Before tonight OG held whoever he was defending to 2/17

Read on Twitter

You can try to spin it any way you'd like and the fact remains that the Knicks defense is also affecting them.
This 2 minute clip shows about 30 missed 3 pointers, more than half which are very questionable that they were "wide open".

Even if I take the word for it, that's just 30 out of 100 3point attempts in 2 games.
Bro, again, just stop. You are reaching. Yes, obviously the Celtics have missed some shots they would normally hit, but the Knicks have something to do with that as well. It's not just one or the other.

wide open we're reaching but its fine lets blame it on wide open misses and not the knicks D at all(like the last play of the game) the go ahead dunk shouldn't have even happened, AARP set the most blatant ridiculous moving screen of the entire playoffs. Celtics are getting blow our of the garden game 3

[Kalela]

Read on Twitter

You can try to spin it any way you'd like and the fact remains that the Knicks defense is also affecting them.
This 2 minute clip shows about 30 missed 3 pointers, more than half which are very questionable that they were "wide open".

Even if I take the word for it, that's just 30 out of 100 3point attempts in 2 games.
Bro, again, just stop. You are reaching. Yes, obviously the Celtics have missed some shots they would normally hit, but the Knicks have something to do with that as well. It's not just one or the other.

wide open we're reaching but its fine lets blame it on wide open misses and not the knicks D at all(like the last play of the game) the go ahead dunk shouldn't have even happened, AARP set the most blatant ridiculous moving screen of the entire playoffs. Celtics are getting blow our of the garden game 3

There is nothing special about the Knicks defense.

[CometGM]

You can try to spin it any way you'd like and the fact remains that the Knicks defense is also affecting them.
This 2 minute clip shows about 30 missed 3 pointers, more than half which are very questionable that they were "wide open".

Even if I take the word for it, that's just 30 out of 100 3point attempts in 2 games.
Bro, again, just stop. You are reaching. Yes, obviously the Celtics have missed some shots they would normally hit, but the Knicks have something to do with that as well. It's not just one or the other.

wide open we're reaching but its fine lets blame it on wide open misses and not the knicks D at all(like the last play of the game) the go ahead dunk shouldn't have even happened, AARP set the most blatant ridiculous moving screen of the entire playoffs. Celtics are getting blow our of the garden game 3

There is nothing special about the Knicks defense.

Strawman argument. Nobody said there was. Reaching again.

[Scalabrine]

I think Mazzula has pushed 3 volume up high expecting the shots to win% to be linear but it appears to be parabolic. Celtics are shooting too many 3s at this point, if they do lose this series then I expect he will correct the plan next season.

That's the hope. I imagine it would be better if he adjusted a little more game to game, though.

Celtics are in unchartered territory, Mazzula explored. It doesn't make him a bad coach

Agreed. And to be fair, they've had the best offense in the league for two years running, are the defending champions, and they still defend very well.

This year, he's pushed it VERY far. Their offense regressed. Tatum regressed, and we are seeing the results of shooting variance when more than half of their shots are low-FG% 3s which are tough to reclaim as offensive rebounds.

This is my endless frustration with Tatum, and again, realizing that there's a heavy dose of coach influence here: he has the tools to do more than just bomb 3s. And he really needs to. He's a pretty good slasher, a pretty good post player, and he has a middie, he just doesn't use it anymore. He needs to be brutalizing people at the elbow and the nail when Ds tighten up on him. And a little more elbow post, not just mid-post. He could be so much more consistent and so much more dangerous on nights when his 3 isn't falling. He isn't all that from 3, he never has been, from the moment he stopped smashing it from the corners. His ATB 3pt shot is decent but non-elite, and that's not something you want to smash in volume.

So we'll have to see what comes next. Boston's due for at least one shooting variance swing in their favor, and I don't know that it would be a good thing, because it might bring some confirmation bias that this is the right strategy.

It's actually pretty nuts to look at his % of FG's based on distance and how it's progressed over the years.

50% of his shots came from 3 this year. Thats just way way too much in my opinion. He's a 34% shooter from there this year. Only have 16% of his shots come from the mid range. The rest are 10 feet and in. I know it's not how the Celtics play, but in a matchup like this, where the Knicks aren't starting a rim protector, he needs to be getting inside the arc more. He tried to do it more this last game but he just wasn't able to do it with the length of OG and Bridges and it didn't feel like he was nearly aggressive enough.

[LFGK]

You can try to spin it any way you'd like and the fact remains that the Knicks defense is also affecting them.
This 2 minute clip shows about 30 missed 3 pointers, more than half which are very questionable that they were "wide open".

Even if I take the word for it, that's just 30 out of 100 3point attempts in 2 games.
Bro, again, just stop. You are reaching. Yes, obviously the Celtics have missed some shots they would normally hit, but the Knicks have something to do with that as well. It's not just one or the other.

wide open we're reaching but its fine lets blame it on wide open misses and not the knicks D at all(like the last play of the game) the go ahead dunk shouldn't have even happened, AARP set the most blatant ridiculous moving screen of the entire playoffs. Celtics are getting blow our of the garden game 3

There is nothing special about the Knicks defense.

clearly there is, there this man holding Tatum and Brown to 7/34 from the field, def nothing special

[cgf]

wide open we're reaching but its fine lets blame it on wide open misses and not the knicks D at all(like the last play of the game) the go ahead dunk shouldn't have even happened, AARP set the most blatant ridiculous moving screen of the entire playoffs. Celtics are getting blow our of the garden game 3

There is nothing special about the Knicks defense.

Strawman argument. Nobody said there was. Reaching again.

I’ll be that huckleberry and say that the way the Knicks have been defending this postseason has been pretty special. Thibs has really unleashed OG & Mikal, while Robinson’s return has allowed everyone to be more aggressive.

[tsherkin]

Great all around players improving their 3 point shot? That's awesome, makes them more versatile and dangerous.

Great all around players spamming 3's all the time? That turns them into just another NBA 3-point shooter.

Indeed. And he isn't a particularly incredible ATB 3pt shooter to begin with; his first couple of seasons were built on corner 3s more than anything else. And then this season, he blew chunks, shot like 34% from 3. That's BRUTAL at 10+ per game. It's no small wonder he was so limply efficient, and worse than his past couple seasons. His passing improved, so his broader offensive utility was there, but man... it's just so disappointing. Clearly, Mazzulla is encouraging this, of course, so I don't want to rag on Tatum specifically TOO much, but JFC, damn.

It's actually pretty nuts to look at his % of FG's based on distance and how it's progressed over the years.

50% of his shots came from 3 this year. Thats just way way too much in my opinion. He's a 34% shooter from there this year. Only have 16% of his shots come from the mid range. The rest are 10 feet and in. I know it's not how the Celtics play, but in a matchup like this, where the Knicks aren't starting a rim protector, he needs to be getting inside the arc more. He tried to do it more this last game but he just wasn't able to do it with the length of OG and Bridges and it didn't feel like he was nearly aggressive enough.

Yeah, it's just way too volatile to support at that proportion. It's nuts. I don't mind him passing on 20-footers and stuff, but he needs to be obliterating the elbows and the baselines a lot more. Even the nail. Those pull-ups are so much more consistent than his 3 ball, and it's so important on those nights when the 3 isn't falling to drive more. Even if you don't get all the way to the rim.

OG and Bridges were brutal, but he was getting the switch onto Mitch and STILL wasn't doing great things, in part because he kept forcing his way to the low side of the post (left side, especially), instead of taking the pull-up or just STARTING from the elbow.

[G35]

Analytics bros can't figure it out.

All those beautiful three's and it does not seem to be working, I don't understand.....

[tsherkin]

Analytics bros can't figure it out.

All those beautiful three's and it does not seem to be working, I don't understand.....

So, I mean, analytics doesn't say "replace all 2s with 3s."

That's simplistic nonsense from people who just want to scream and yell at the sky about "NUMB3RZ," and it's fairly irritating.

The Celtics are an egregious example of pushing a strategy to the extreme, very much in the way Morey's Rockets were with Harden as their focal star.

There are multiple routes to efficiency, and we've seen a whole bunch of them. The Nuggets are an especially good example of this. The Thunder are 10th in the league in 3PA and the 3rd-best offense in the league, and they've got a primary star who crushes it in the middle spaces. The Clippers would've been better in the RS had Kawhi managed to be healthy, because he's another fine example of a high-efficiency guy who doesn't take more 3s than Kobe used to during his prime.

Analytics is more than eFG%. And anyone who pays even passing attention knows you can prop up team ORTG in a host of ways which could potentially be problematic and break down under pressure. Low TOV% with high ORB% but low team eFG% is a good example of that, just as much as 3pt spam.

People need to quit acting like the whole concept of analytics orbits eFG%. It's infantile and ignorant.

[ItsDanger]

Analytics bros can't figure it out.

All those beautiful three's and it does not seem to be working, I don't understand.....

So, I mean, analytics doesn't say "replace all 2s with 3s."

That's simplistic nonsense from people who just want to scream and yell at the sky about "NUMB3RZ," and it's fairly irritating.

The Celtics are an egregious example of pushing a strategy to the extreme, very much in the way Morey's Rockets were with Harden as their focal star.

There are multiple routes to efficiency, and we've seen a whole bunch of them. The Nuggets are an especially good example of this. The Thunder are 10th in the league in 3PA and the 3rd-best offense in the league, and they've got a primary star who crushes it in the middle spaces. The Clippers would've been better in the RS had Kawhi managed to be healthy, because he's another fine example of a high-efficiency guy who doesn't take more 3s than Kobe used to during his prime.

Analytics is more than eFG%. And anyone who pays even passing attention knows you can prop up team ORTG in a host of ways which could potentially be problematic and break down under pressure. Low TOV% with high ORB% but low team eFG% is a good example of that, just as much as 3pt spam.

People need to quit acting like the whole concept of analytics orbits eFG%. It's infantile and ignorant.

Maybe attempt to hire more sophisticated analysts might help. They certainly don't work in sports currently.

[ropjhk]

Live by the 3, die by the 3.

[cgf]

All those beautiful three's and it does not seem to be working, I don't understand.....

So, I mean, analytics doesn't say "replace all 2s with 3s."

That's simplistic nonsense from people who just want to scream and yell at the sky about "NUMB3RZ," and it's fairly irritating.

The Celtics are an egregious example of pushing a strategy to the extreme, very much in the way Morey's Rockets were with Harden as their focal star.

There are multiple routes to efficiency, and we've seen a whole bunch of them. The Nuggets are an especially good example of this. The Thunder are 10th in the league in 3PA and the 3rd-best offense in the league, and they've got a primary star who crushes it in the middle spaces. The Clippers would've been better in the RS had Kawhi managed to be healthy, because he's another fine example of a high-efficiency guy who doesn't take more 3s than Kobe used to during his prime.

Analytics is more than eFG%. And anyone who pays even passing attention knows you can prop up team ORTG in a host of ways which could potentially be problematic and break down under pressure. Low TOV% with high ORB% but low team eFG% is a good example of that, just as much as 3pt spam.

People need to quit acting like the whole concept of analytics orbits eFG%. It's infantile and ignorant.

Maybe attempt to hire more sophisticated analysts might help. They certainly don't work in sports currently.

Why do people quote posts if they're not going to read what they are responding too?

[tsherkin]

Why do people quote posts if they're not going to read what they are responding too?

I think you know the answer to that one.

[cgf]

Why do people quote posts if they're not going to read what they are responding too?

I think you know the answer to that one.

I sometimes struggle to imagine how small your life has to be, for that thought to even cross your mind

[tsherkin]

Why do people quote posts if they're not going to read what they are responding too?

I think you know the answer to that one.

I sometimes struggle to imagine how small your life has to be, for that thought to even cross your mind

Indeed.

[wco81]

Great all around players improving their 3 point shot? That's awesome, makes them more versatile and dangerous.

Great all around players spamming 3's all the time? That turns them into just another NBA 3-point shooter.

Indeed. And he isn't a particularly incredible ATB 3pt shooter to begin with; his first couple of seasons were built on corner 3s more than anything else. And then this season, he blew chunks, shot like 34% from 3. That's BRUTAL at 10+ per game. It's no small wonder he was so limply efficient, and worse than his past couple seasons. His passing improved, so his broader offensive utility was there, but man... it's just so disappointing. Clearly, Mazzulla is encouraging this, of course, so I don't want to rag on Tatum specifically TOO much, but JFC, damn.

It's actually pretty nuts to look at his % of FG's based on distance and how it's progressed over the years.

50% of his shots came from 3 this year. Thats just way way too much in my opinion. He's a 34% shooter from there this year. Only have 16% of his shots come from the mid range. The rest are 10 feet and in. I know it's not how the Celtics play, but in a matchup like this, where the Knicks aren't starting a rim protector, he needs to be getting inside the arc more. He tried to do it more this last game but he just wasn't able to do it with the length of OG and Bridges and it didn't feel like he was nearly aggressive enough.

Yeah, it's just way too volatile to support at that proportion. It's nuts. I don't mind him passing on 20-footers and stuff, but he needs to be obliterating the elbows and the baselines a lot more. Even the nail. Those pull-ups are so much more consistent than his 3 ball, and it's so important on those nights when the 3 isn't falling to drive more. Even if you don't get all the way to the rim.

OG and Bridges were brutal, but he was getting the switch onto Mitch and STILL wasn't doing great things, in part because he kept forcing his way to the low side of the post (left side, especially), instead of taking the pull-up or just STARTING from the elbow.

Thing I noticed is he takes contested 3s off the dribble, either off a crossover dribble or a step-back.

These can be effective and he's a good ball handler for his size.

But I don't recall JT taking jab step while still having a dribble and then gathering and shooting rather than off the bounce. With his length and downhill attack threat, he should be able to create enough space to get off a shot over most defenders, without using the dribble, just having the threat to drive.

[tsherkin]

Thing I noticed is he takes contested 3s off the dribble, either off a crossover dribble or a step-back.

These can be effective and he's a good ball handler for his size.

Sure. In moderation, those can be effective shots at times. The issue with him isn't so much the nature of the shots he takes as it is the proportion of 3s relative to his total volume. This year was a down year, probably BECAUSE he shot so much overall from 3. Normally, he's like a 35, 36% shooter, which isn't bad at 5-7 3PA/g. Not great, but certainly tolerable. At 10+, though, that's bad strategy, particularly come playoff time.

When he wants to be, he's pretty effective with a live dribble. He just doesn't do it nearly enough.

[Chokic]

Why are ppl so high on Boston on this board? None of this surprises me.