2025 Blazer Draft Prospects

[Norm2953]

I'm doubtful Chicago would take 22 to get our own pick back.

Why? That makes zero sense. They've been wanting this pick forever and I imagine and if we make the playoffs they're getting a pick somewhere in that range anyways. You think they're turn it down if they might be able to get it in 2 years at 17, or 18 instead of 22? or get 2 seconds if we dont even make the playoffs?

A lot of people have made this claim without any argument as to why?

Go ask the guys on the Bulls board if they would take pick 22.

Blazers might think they will make the playoffs next season (I'm skeptical) but until they do, if I were the Bulls, I'd want
pick 16 instead of 22

[Walton1one]

Essengue is intriguing, however I agree he is a longer term play and what definite skill can he rely on\POR count on?

I think there are several other players who have a part of their game that should definitely translate\teams can count on

Jakucionis - Bryant - Demin - McNeeley (yep that is right, circling back to him).

The majority of other players (outside of CMB\Queen) don’t have one aspect of their game that a team can have 100% confidence in, they all are “if’s” nothing a team can be confident will bring from Day 1.

Not saying that those 4 guys don’t have “if’s” either, they certainly do, but b/c they have a skill they can “hang their hat on” in the NBA, their floor IMO is much safer\assured

All 4 of those guys have an aspect of their game, a few of them have several, that they can bring to POR the moment they put in the uniform

[Case2012]

I would be astonished if we made the playoffs this year, or even next. All the games we won were against tanking teams and none were above .500 during that win streak. Chicago fans might want the 15th pick but they'll probably get 2 seconds.

[Norm2953]

I'm doubtful Chicago would take 22 to get our own pick back.

Betting on guys like Noa would require a lot of patience for Salaun averaged 5.9 ppg in his rookie season. Blazers
are still waiting on Rupert who averaged 3.0 ppg. If the team thinks they want to compete this season, they
would not be picking guys who require a lot of patience.

I simply think Noa is a different level of prospect as Salaun and Rayan.

Salaun and Rayan tested as meh athletes - especially Rayan who was notably bad in all athletic testing if I remember correctly.

I think Noa plays with a different level of athleticism and is much more of a unicorn than either. I think think outside the top of the draft Noa offers the best upside given his fluidity at his size and age and his ability to get to the rim from the wing at his size and age.

We should be targeting guys that have even a slight chance of being needle movers rather than trying to round out the roster with guys that win-now. Thats just absurd to me for a team that is lacking high end talent. Sure, get another draft pick and go safe but with the highest pick PDX has in this draft I want them to swing as big as possible for a slight chance it works out. As it stands the teams talent level is just not high enough from top to bottom - but I understand the FO is foolishly unlikely to feel that way.

It does depend on who philosophically is running this draft. There will be no guys with high end talent if we end up picking at 10

Pick 10 2018 Mikal Bridges
2019 Cam Reddish
2020 Jalen Smith
2021 Ziare Williams
2022 Johnny Davis
2023 Cason Wallace
2024 Cody Williams

Historically, the higher the choice, the better odds a team will find a real keeper. Occasionally a real star player can be
found after pick 10 (Giannis pick 15 in 2013 and SGA pick 11 in 2018) but mostly guys who will play 15-18 MPG.

Let's hope the Blazers get lucky and end up with a pick in the top 4. There are no surprises in the draft for every team has the
same film and the player we pick has to fit with what the team perceives is their core. The perceived needle mover still has to
fit with the guys the team wants to build around by the time this player is ready to play.

[BlazersBroncos]

Let's hope the Blazers get lucky and end up with a pick in the top 4.

See I dont see much difference in potential between Ace and Noa. Cooper and Harper? Ya, quite a big difference but those 2 are each in categories of their own.

Ace Bailey
6'10
200lbs
18.85 years old
33.3mpg / 17.6ppg (On 14.7 shots) / 34% 3PT (1.6 - 4.5) / 69% FT (2.5 - 3.6) / 7.2reb / 1.3apg / 1.3bpg / 1spg / 2to
27.5% USG / .243 FTr / .532 TS% / 108.2 ORTG / 109.1 DRTG

Noa Essengue
6'9
194lbs
18.50 years old
23.7mpg / 12.4ppg (On 6.9 shots) / .29% 3PT (0.6 - 1.9) / .73% FT (4.1 - 5.6) / 5.3reb / 1.1apg / 0.6bpg / 1.4spg / 1to
19.1% USG / .800 FTr / .64 TS% / 118.5 ORTG / 104.1 DRTG

Noa put up across the board better stats, really outside 3PT%, against better competition at a younger age with a similar athletic build / size. Its pretty startling to compare the 3PT and FT% and then hear the general consensus that one is a Rashard Lewis archetype and one is a non-shooting finisher.

[Walton1one]

Measurements for Ace will be something to monitor, some are saying he could be 6’8-6’9 instead

IMO though Bailey is a much better prospect than Essengue

[Norm2953]

There seem to be wide variance of opinions on players but I'd still rather be picking at 10 than 13,22.

Just get me a player who will fit with whoever the team wants to build around for the next 4-5 years

[zzaj]

Measurements for Ace will be something to monitor, some are saying he could be 6’8-6’9 instead

IMO though Bailey is a much better prospect than Essengue

I see them as entirely different. They play totally different, though I haven't really dug into Noa yet.

I've watched a lot of Ace at this point, and to me he looks like Carmelo-lite, but with more athletic defense. I'm not sure how valuable his mid-range game shot making will be in the current NBA.

[BlazersBroncos]

Measurements for Ace will be something to monitor, some are saying he could be 6’8-6’9 instead

IMO though Bailey is a much better prospect than Essengue

I see them as entirely different. They play totally different, though I haven't really dug into Noa yet.

I've watched a lot of Ace at this point, and to me he looks like Carmelo-lite, but with more athletic defense. I'm not sure how valuable his mid-range game shot making will be in the current NBA.

He really isnt great at putting pressure on the rim. A middie as a part of your bag is one thing. If its the go-to move you have, thats very devalued. His FTr is close to an Anfernee Simons at .243. Coming into the league Carmelo was nearly at .400 FTr. He also had a worse AST% than Melo, a guy known for not moving the ball well.

I think there is a very high variance on Ace Bailey outcomes - I think any of these could prove correct -

Less rim-pressuring Carmelo Anthony
Rashard Lewis
Taller Jalen Green
Tim Thomas
Austin Daye

[zzaj]

Measurements for Ace will be something to monitor, some are saying he could be 6’8-6’9 instead

IMO though Bailey is a much better prospect than Essengue

I see them as entirely different. They play totally different, though I haven't really dug into Noa yet.

I've watched a lot of Ace at this point, and to me he looks like Carmelo-lite, but with more athletic defense. I'm not sure how valuable his mid-range game shot making will be in the current NBA.

He really isnt great at putting pressure on the rim. A middie as a part of your bag is one thing. If its the go-to move you have, thats very devalued. His FTr is close to an Anfernee Simons at .243. Coming into the league Carmelo was nearly at .400 FTr. He also had a worse AST% than Melo, a guy known for not moving the ball well.

I think there is a very high variance on Ace Bailey outcomes - I think any of these could prove correct -

Less rim-pressuring Carmelo Anthony
Rashard Lewis
Taller Jalen Green
Tim Thomas
Austin Daye

Yep, certainly agreed on the high variance on outcomes. Would hate to have the 3rd pick in this draft...
And agreed on Ace not really pressuring the rim. OFC a comparison to Carmelo isn't really going to work...namely, Melo came into the league 22 years ago, and offensive schemes and positional asks were pretty different then.

Rashard makes some sense. Has some Harrison Barnes in him too...although I think he'll be more aggressive with his USG in getting shots up than Barnes was.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I said a few pages back -- and believe -- that Ace's combination of size and fluid athleticism is enough to make him an intriguing lottery pick, but at the back end. He is just lacking in NBA skills, and there are better prospects. I'm not sure why he was so hyped in high school, but I think it's mostly carryover that has him mocked in the top five. Reminds me a bit of Shabazz Muhammad, who was decent at UCLA but exposed as a very limited player with questionable upside -- and who went 14th. That's the level of risk Bailey is worth.

No, the Blazers need a top three pick. Edgecombe is the third guy in this draft, not Bailey.

[HoopsFanAZ]

1. Trading the expiring contracts and Grant will likely bring back extra bodies which is why those 'extra' bodies having a year left (2 max) matters for buying them out and eating contract for one year -- no more dead money sucking $$$ for years to come! Teams like the Lakers and Heat are good targets.

2. With cutting the incoming EC filler contracts, there should be plenty of space for 1-3 first round draftees. In a year, Portland's team salary structure should be fixed -- in line with who is actually on the court. Doable and should be done.

3. Swinging away in the draft for a non-contending team matters. Tiers? Yes. Need-based tie-breakers within a tier? Sure. Deni-like trades are great.

4. I've already put my markers on Demin for what he does at a high level and for offsetting less than ideal-sized players. Essengue has the beginning of many NBA skills and will take time -- just like Rupert and just like Batum and Salaun and Cody Williams ... BUT there's some eye test with him for high upside and a wide enough skillset that I buy it. I trust Schmitz to figure out the best, highest upside dude and to make that case with Cronin.

[BlazersBroncos]

1. Trading the expiring contracts and Grant will likely bring back extra bodies which is why those 'extra' bodies having a year left (2 max) matters for buying them out and eating contract for one year -- no more dead money sucking $$$ for years to come! Teams like the Lakers and Heat are good targets.

I still dont understand who these mystery teams are that are interested in Jerami Grant at 32M+ for the next 3 years. Would the Lakers really tank any chance at being a FA player in 2026 for Jerami Grant? The Heat as well are a more or two away from becoming 2026 FA players. Both teams have the market to attract the talent. Both teams would be effectively saying 'were out, Jerami Grant is worth not playing around in FA come 2026' should they trade for him and his big deal.

I see no suitors for Jerami but I might be wrong, who knows. I guess if MIL sticks with Giannis we might be able to swap Grant for Kuzma.

[zzaj]

Demin is an interesting prospect...

I like him as a replacement for Banton. Banton is MUCH better at self-creation to the rim, but Demin is already a MUCH better passer off of screens.

There are some legit concerns about his defensive ability and overall quickness. However I think if he does measure at 6'9" w/7' wingspan, I can't think of two better players to have in his ear than Camara and Thybulle. Watching the little bit of film on him that I've seen, he often makes the correct reads in the halfcourt setting and within team defense.

I could see a world where drafting him replaces both Murray and Banton, and he becomes the primary backup PG.

[BlazersBroncos]

Demin is an interesting prospect...

I like him as a replacement for Banton. Banton is MUCH better at self-creation to the rim, but Demin is already a MUCH better passer off of screens.

There are some legit concerns about his defensive ability and overall quickness. However I think if he does measure at 6'9" w/7' wingspan, I can't think of two better players to have in his ear than Camara and Thybulle. Watching the little bit of film on him that I've seen, he often makes the correct reads in the halfcourt setting and within team defense.

I could see a world where drafting him replaces both Murray and Banton, and he becomes the primary backup PG.

I like Demin if we manage to get a 2nd FRP. I would be estatic if we could come out of the draft w/ Noa + Demin. Address shooting via FA or trade (In the other thread I outlined a deal proposed by Texas Chuck that turned Simons into Klay + 19 + 36) -

10 - Noa Essengue F
19 - Egor Demin GF
36 - Draft / Stash or trade for 2+ future SRP

G - Scoot Henderson / Egor Demin / Vet FA
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Rayan Rupert
F - Toumani Camara / Klay Thompson / Noa Essengue
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Noa Essengue
C - DeAndre Ayton / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

IR RWIII

Thats pretty exciting IMO. Good mix of young and old. Relies on internal development but you address a tall shooter need w/ Klay. Get 2 high upside guys in the draft who raise the long term outlook on the teams ceiling quite a bit IMO.

[tester551]

Measurements for Ace will be something to monitor, some are saying he could be 6’8-6’9 instead

IMO though Bailey is a much better prospect than Essengue

I see them as entirely different. They play totally different, though I haven't really dug into Noa yet.

I've watched a lot of Ace at this point, and to me he looks like Carmelo-lite, but with more athletic defense. I'm not sure how valuable his mid-range game shot making will be in the current NBA.

I agree with the Melo comp.
I think he's more the Blazer version of Melo instead of the Denver version.
I struggle to see how he fits into winning TEAM basketball.

[tester551]

Essengue has the beginning of many NBA skills and will take time -- just like Rupert and just like Batum and Salaun and Cody Williams ... BUT there's some eye test with him for high upside and a wide enough skillset that I buy it. I trust Schmitz to figure out the best, highest upside dude and to make that case with Cronin.

Noa impacts the games in ways that I never saw with Salaun or Cody. All are raw... but Noa is a much higher tier of prospect IMO.

[HoopsFanAZ]

[…]

I still dont understand who these mystery teams are that are interested in Jerami Grant at 32M+ for the next 3 years. Would the Lakers really tank any chance at being a FA player in 2026 for Jerami Grant? The Heat as well are a more or two away from becoming 2026 FA players. Both teams have the market to attract the talent. Both teams would be effectively saying 'were out, Jerami Grant is worth not playing around in FA come 2026' should they trade for him and his big deal.

I see no suitors for Jerami but I might be wrong, who knows. I guess if MIL sticks with Giannis we might be able to swap Grant for Kuzma.

I don’t see Pat Riley thinking, “Jerami Grant — I gotta get me some …”

But in a [perhaps futile] scouring of lineups and team salaries and future picks, Miami is win-now and their best forwards are Wiggins and …

The Lakers and the Heat would be better with Grant by giving up expiring or short contracts plus a young player (Knecht or Jovic) and a future 1st when they expect to be good. That’s what I realistically see as doable.

[BlazersBroncos]

[…]

I still dont understand who these mystery teams are that are interested in Jerami Grant at 32M+ for the next 3 years. Would the Lakers really tank any chance at being a FA player in 2026 for Jerami Grant? The Heat as well are a more or two away from becoming 2026 FA players. Both teams have the market to attract the talent. Both teams would be effectively saying 'were out, Jerami Grant is worth not playing around in FA come 2026' should they trade for him and his big deal.

I see no suitors for Jerami but I might be wrong, who knows. I guess if MIL sticks with Giannis we might be able to swap Grant for Kuzma.

I don’t see Pat Riley thinking, “Jerami Grant — I gotta get me some …”

But in a [perhaps futile] scouring of lineups and team salaries and future picks, Miami is win-now and their best forwards are Wiggins and …

The Lakers and the Heat would be better with Grant by giving up expiring or short contracts plus a young player (Knecht or Jovic) and a future 1st when they expect to be good. That’s what I realistically see as doable.

They could also simply target someone like Taurean Prince for the Tax MLE and get 65-75% of Grant (100% of his play last year) and not implode any hope for a cap space move in 2026.

I just cant see either team being so short sighted. Grant is not a needle mover. He is a 4th option making 32M, coming off a horrible year, with a long contract and potentially declining defensive talent (Or at least effort). I think there might be 2-3 players in the league that have worse contracts than him (Embiid, PG13, maybe Beal due to size and NTC but at least his deal is shorter, maybe Lauri but I can see a team actually being interested in buying low'ish on him).

Grant is an albatross.

[Sinobas]

1. Trading the expiring contracts and Grant will likely bring back extra bodies which is why those 'extra' bodies having a year left (2 max) matters for buying them out and eating contract for one year -- no more dead money sucking $$$ for years to come! Teams like the Lakers and Heat are good targets.

I still dont understand who these mystery teams are that are interested in Jerami Grant at 32M+ for the next 3 years. Would the Lakers really tank any chance at being a FA player in 2026 for Jerami Grant? The Heat as well are a more or two away from becoming 2026 FA players. Both teams have the market to attract the talent. Both teams would be effectively saying 'were out, Jerami Grant is worth not playing around in FA come 2026' should they trade for him and his big deal.

I see no suitors for Jerami but I might be wrong, who knows. I guess if MIL sticks with Giannis we might be able to swap Grant for Kuzma.

There are a lot of bad contracts in the league. So the move would be to deal Grant to a team in exchange for dead-weight contracts with less years. That team might see Grant as at least a decent rotational piece, who might bounce back from an off year.

Remember we were able to trade Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe's horrible contracts.