VaDe255 wrote:greg4012 wrote:VaDe255 wrote:
I’d argue it’s not just about offensive redundancies. Durant has clearly declined since his Achilles tear in 2019. He’s lost a step in explosiveness, and the numbers reflect it. His rim rate has steadily dropped and is now at a career low, with no real recovery across multiple seasons or systems.
He’s still an elite shooter and scorer, but the physical decline is real and so is the injury risk. Committing significant assets and a large extension to Durant is a high risk move with limited upside.
And even with Durant, Herro would still be the team’s primary offensive initiator. Durant’s role at this point is more off ball and iso focused, he’s not a full time creator (never really was through his career).
Sure, he’d make Miami better in the short term. But it wouldn’t elevate them to true contender status and it would only make it harder to pivot later.
The better approach is to keep developing Tyler and Bam in meaningful roles while maintaining flexibility. That way, if a real star becomes available, one who actually moves the needle, you’re in a position to make that move, even if it means trading one of them. Jumping on Durant now doesn’t build a contender or a future. It just blocks both and only creates a tiny window with a punchers chance to succeed.
I fully agree that Durant is less of an inside scorer than he used to be. I just don't think the lengths to which you extend that takeaway to apply it to other things makes sense. His rim attempt % is basically flat over the past 5 seasons, while his offensive efficiency and output remains top tier. This is just his game. Not reflecting a steady decline.
I'm also perfectly fine with not pursuing Durant. But, I just think many that don't want to are overreaching like crazy to justify the perspective.
I'm not basing it on rim rate alone (it was well 20%+ before the injury).
There is a steady decline in his catch all metrics, winshares, defensive impact and shot creation.
Of course there are different explanations for it (and a different role could see an uptick), but there is also a very simple one, he's getting older.
And his team has become much worse constructed. I see a lot more of the latter affecting the numbers than the former personally. But, of course age is a legit concern to monitor. It's just not everything its being made out to be and I gotta push back on overreach in the analysis.
And there is not a steady decline in his win shares (despite the fact he has undoubtedly been on his worst team this season--thus less win shares to go around).
2021 - 5.0 (out of 46.4 while only playing half the season) --> 10% of team total win shares
2022 - 8.4 (out of 43.7) --> 20% of team total win shares
2023 - 6.8 (out of 45) --> 15% of teams total win shares
2024 - 8.3 (out of 49.6) --> 17% of team total win shares
2025 - 5.2 (out of 35.7) --> 15% of team total win shares
These stats are all REALLY messy and noisy to attempt to use in a uniform manner in player comparisons (esp without loads of context to qualify). For instance, Durant's win shares this season (in terms of number and percent of team total win shares) is right on par with a player like Luka Doncic, who started the season on a team well built for his game and ended the season on a better overall team, but less catered to his game specifically). It's just dangerous to serve these advanced stats as authority without full understanding and context to navigate.
