Analysis
The Raptors are in an interesting spot. On one hand, the team is largely in place. They have 15 players under contract with only two open standard roster spots. One of those will presumably go to their 2025 first-round pick. The other is probably ticketed for a re-signed Christ Boucher.
Would that be good enough to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference? Probably. Better health over a full year would go a long way, plus the team will be adding Brandon Ingram as an “acquisition” of sorts, since he’s yet to make his Raptors debut. That’s enough talent to make a playoff push this coming season.
But…is that what the Raptors want? Is simply making the playoffs enough?
That’s where the other hand comes into play.
Toronto is positioned to make a big move this offseason. They have tradable contracts for players who can actually play. The Raptors also own all of their own first-round picks moving forward, in addition to most of their own second-round picks (and a couple of others).
The Raps also have the most important factor of all: Masai Ujiri isn’t afraid to make a big move.
In a summer where an unusual number of All-Stars might be available, Ujiri could make a blockbuster move. He’s got the draft capital to offer and he has tradable contracts. That’s enough to put him in on the conversation for any number of stars that could be available this summer.
Which path is the correct one? That’s really in the eye of the beholder. Should the Raptors go all-in for say, Kevin Durant? Probably not. They aren’t close enough to title contention to make that the sort of move they should make, given Durant’s age and contract situation.
Should they go all-in on seeing if they can get Zion Williamson healthy? Maybe. And “all-in” is probably a relative term there, as Williamson’s value might not be at an all-in level.
Should Toronto go all-in if the Milwaukee Bucks decide to trade Giannis Antetokounmpo? Now we’re talking!
To be fair, the Raptors probably won’t have the best package to offer Milwaukee. They have no extra first-round picks, and they don’t have a lot cost-effective, young talent with super high upside, now that Scottie Barnes has signed his rookie scale extension.
But there is a deep personal connection between Ujiri and Antetokounmpo. And the Raptors could probably get there with a trade offer, possibly by involving a third team and routing veteran players there, while they send additional assets to Milwaukee on behalf of Toronto.
Of course, the most likely path for the Raptors is to re-sign Boucher to a reasonable contract, then to pick the best player available in the draft. That’s far more likely than a mega-trade that comes out of nowhere.
A reasonable contract for Boucher probably looks somewhat similar to what he signed for previously. Something in the range of $30 million over three years gets the versatile big man a nice payday, but leaves him on a very movable contract, while also reflecting that he’s a 32-year-old free agent.
If the Raptors let Boucher walk, they’ll probably replace him with a minimum signing, or their 2025 second-round pick. The team is too close to the aprons to make using either the Non-Taxpayer MLE or Taxpayer MLE all that worthwhile. Unless a great-value signing falls in their laps, dealing with the associated hard cap isn’t worth it.
At the draft, Toronto should be in position to pick a good player in the second tier of talent. Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey and V.J. Edgecombe will all be off the board, unless the team has some lottery luck. But the Raptors should still get a really good player.
If Toronto wants more of a pure point guard, they could pick Kasparas Jakucionis. If they want a wing scorer, Tre Johnson could be in play. If they want to add to the frontcourt, while planning for an inevitable Jakob Poeltl departure, Derik Queen or Khaman Maluach could be the pick.
The good news is that the Raptors will come away with a rotation player as soon as next season. Outside of wings with size (Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett have that more than covered), Toronto can use another rotation guy just about anywhere.
Let’s say that Ujiri doesn’t hit a homerun via trade this offseason. Toronto is probably looking at a rotation of:
Jakob Poeltl – Chris Boucher
Scottie Barnes – Jonathan Mogbo
Brandon Ingram – Ochai Agbaji
RJ Barrett – Gradey Dick – Ja’Kobe Walter
Immanuel Quickley – Jamal Shead
Then, you add in a draft pick somewhere to that group. That’s pretty solid. And there isn’t a single bad contract in that bunch. A couple of guys (Barrett and Quickley) are maybe a bit overpaid, but not by enough that their deals are under water.
Getting Ingram at the trade deadline was a good pre-agency move, and one the Raptors couldn’t have swung very easily this summer. Extending Ingram on a fair number (assuming he’s healthy enough to play, of course) makes that trade and extension combo really solid work.
All of the above adds up to an offseason that might not be overly exciting, but that’s probably ok. The pieces are there to make a playoff run in a step-forward season, while leaving open lots of trade flexibility for the future.
But…never count out Masai Ujiri with making the big move. The opportunities will be there this summer. It won’t be a surprise at all if we see Toronto swing big and come away with a superstar this offseason.
Mal or die trying
