2025 Draft Thread - Part 2

[doclinkin]

You do realize you are comparing 1 player shot a year at #1 to 4 players(2-5) to 5 (5-10) to 5 (11-15) to 15 choices (16-30). You would not be considered crazy most year if you traded the #1 pick for picks 2, 3, 4, and 5 or choices 11-15 for picks 16-30.

Would you trade Wemby for the next 4 draft picks from his year? Or LeBron. Or Shaq.

I haven’t looked but my reflex says no. I bet no GM would take a trade down offer from Flagg.

A generational superstar is worth any number of other good players. A consensus overall number one franchise player is not worth losing.

Dunno if that applies to Flagg. But most scouts seem to think he’s a statistical standout that you cannot walk away from.

Also. You can’t play all picks from 16-30. There’s diminishing returns in stacking your roster with youth. Young teams lose UNLESS they have a star. So they only learn losing. You get less value per player. Until you have a franchise player and star, all else is pretty much forfeit. You need to have the guy to build around. Or two.

A star player, hi usage high-efficiency, is worth any number of role players.

[payitforward]

I can't believe we are still having this conversation. Both Doc and I have provided very clear statistical evidence that lotto picks are WAY more likely to land difference-making stars than later picks. My data of where All-NBA players were picked is pretty straightforward and I've posted it several times. Doc's data showing the 10th best player drafted at each position is even better. In both cases, the data isn't cherry-picked anecdotes of individual successful draft picks, but actual, impartial data encompassing all players drafted over very large periods of time.

There is a steep decline in star-caliber talent as you go from 1 on down through the end of the lottery. In the back half of the draft, the slope of that line flattens considerably, so trading down from say #18 to get two picks in the late 20's might make sense. But on a team like ours in need of star-caliber talent, it would be insane to trade down out of the lottery.

You're right -- the discussion is tiresome. Largely because this is not a venue where it can be based on data & methods one can rely upon -- tho I don't mean to question the particular data points you mention above.

Anyway the goal of our discussion is not to find some overarching formulae of equivalence. What we care about is maximizing our team's return on its draft capital. I.e., this year, to discuss what we should do w/ our 1-6 pick, our #18 & our #40.

In fact, when I mention that really good players are sometimes found at that point in the draft, I do so only b/c I want us to find one of those guys at 40! I.e. it's in the nature of encouragement not science! I.e. maybe we can get lucky!!

Above all, you are right that we'd be nuts to trade down from our high pick! Yet, I'm equally interested in the question of whom we pick, or what else we do, with #18 & 40. Those guys aren't going to be Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper, but they are still important choices.

[doclinkin]

By the way, I retract the use of the word stupid earlier. I just think our young cats are criminally underrated in general, and especially by our own fans. I don’t think people really get how good they are relative to their youth, and underestimate what that can lead to given reasonable projection of their upside. So I get feisty and cranky in their defense.

[The Consiglieri]

Had a hilarious tankathon run after reading the recent Wiz Draft article on scenarios.
Spin 1: 6
Spin 2: 6
Spin 3: 5
Spin 4: 5
Spin 5: 6

Holy mother of god, if that's the kind of luck we bring monday, I'd walk out the lobby and not check back in again until May '26. Just, gtfo with that horse ----. A reminder of how insanely stupid the current lottery set up is.

[penbeast0]

I think a team like the Nets would deal Flagg for Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe, and Tre Johnson (or whoever they have 2-5); I don't think the Wizards would. Last year I think the Hawks would LEAP at the chance to deal 1 for 2-5. Wemby, I agree, the answer is no.

[nate33]

You do realize you are comparing 1 player shot a year at #1 to 4 players(2-5) to 5 (5-10) to 5 (11-15) to 15 choices (16-30). You would not be considered crazy most year if you traded the #1 pick for picks 2, 3, 4, and 5 or choices 11-15 for picks 16-30.

I don't follow.

When did Doc argue that having the #1 pick is better than having ALL of #2, #3, #4 and #5? Why is this even a hypothetical worth discussing? No team has amassed #2 + #3 + #4 + #5 to trade up for #1.

[doclinkin]

I think a team like the Nets would deal Flagg for Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe, and Tre Johnson (or whoever they have 2-5); I don't think the Wizards would.

Doubt it. The Nets already have 4 1st round picks. Actually, I believe the scuttlebutt on the Nets is that they are more likely to try to jumpstart their rebuild by trading up. Like if they got the second pick or third, they might package some of their lower pics to climb into that one or two spot.

Last year I think the Hawks would LEAP at the chance to deal 1 for 2-5. Wemby, I agree, the answer is no.

Which is why I said if there’s a consensus number one overall I don’t think anybody trades down. But certain years there is no agreement and in those years it might make sense to get a little something extra to drop a spot or two within that first tier.

Last year I would’ve been happy to drop for Stephon Castle and Zach Edey for instance. But last year the assessment was that there was no true number one pick in the draft at all. That is, not a player who would normally be expected to go number one. So it’s the same as though I was making a trade within the 2 to 5 tier.

This year, if we landed with the third or fourth pick and the Nets offered up pick five or six plus a lower first and something next year I’d be willing to listen.

[nate33]

I just ran a Tankathon mock. We ended up at #1 with Flagg. Charlotte had Harper at #2. I thought that was an interesting scenario. Charlotte doesn't really need Harper, and we are a team who really needs a point guard like Harper to drive the offense.

If that scenario came to pass, what would Charlotte have to offer to move up to #1? Would you do it for the #2 pick and an unprotected 2026 pick? Or maybe the #2 pick, an unprotected 2026 pick and an unprotected 2028 pick?

Or is trading Flagg just a total non-starter?

I wonder how much we would have to offer to acquire the #2 pick from Charlotte while still keeping the #1? Would they do it for Sarr and Bub? Or perhaps Bilal and Bub? It would be pretty sweet to start next year with Harper AND Flagg.

[penbeast0]

You do realize you are comparing 1 player shot a year at #1 to 4 players(2-5) to 5 (5-10) to 5 (11-15) to 15 choices (16-30). You would not be considered crazy most year if you traded the #1 pick for picks 2, 3, 4, and 5 or choices 11-15 for picks 16-30.

I don't follow.

When did Doc argue that having the #1 pick is better than having ALL of #2, #3, #4 and #5? Why is this even a hypothetical worth discussing? No team has amassed #2 + #3 + #4 + #5 to trade up for #1.

The post I referred to was comparing the 10th best player picked 1st with the 10th best player picked 2-5, etc. after a series of posts saying that earlier picks weren't significantly more valuable, not the 10th best player picked 3, the 10th best picked 4th, etc. so it seemed a bit off if you were looking at it as comparing values of drafting higher.

[dobrojim]

You do realize you are comparing 1 player shot a year at #1 to 4 players(2-5) to 5 (5-10) to 5 (11-15) to 15 choices (16-30). You would not be considered crazy most year if you traded the #1 pick for picks 2, 3, 4, and 5 or choices 11-15 for picks 16-30.

Would you trade Wemby for the next 4 draft picks from his year? Or LeBron. Or Shaq.

I haven’t looked but my reflex says no. I bet no GM would take a trade down offer from Flagg.

A generational superstar is worth any number of other good players. A consensus overall number one franchise player is not worth losing.

Dunno if that applies to Flagg. But most scouts seem to think he’s a statistical standout that you cannot walk away from.

Also. You can’t play all picks from 16-30. There’s diminishing returns in stacking your roster with youth. Young teams lose UNLESS they have a star. So they only learn losing. You get less value per player. Until you have a franchise player and star, all else is pretty much forfeit. You need to have the guy to build around. Or two.

A star player, hi usage high-efficiency, is worth any number of role players.

Agreed. What some seem to lose sight of is how long
it can take for a given youngster to emerge into
the player that is a generational franchise player.
SGA was good right away but he didn't lead the assoc
in scoring until he had had time to learn what he
knows now.

[closg00]

Had a hilarious tankathon run after reading the recent Wiz Draft article on scenarios.
Spin 1: 6
Spin 2: 6
Spin 3: 5
Spin 4: 5
Spin 5: 6

Holy mother of god, if that's the kind of luck we bring monday, I'd walk out the lobby and not check back in again until May '26. Just, gtfo with that horse ----. A reminder of how insanely stupid the current lottery set up is.

I have been mentally preparing myself for 4-5, and now 4-6 since the end of the season
However, Utility Sports has a feeling we're going to get #1

Watch on YouTube

[closg00]

I just ran a Tankathon mock. We ended up at #1 with Flagg. Charlotte had Harper at #2. I thought that was an interesting scenario. Charlotte doesn't really need Harper, and we are a team who really needs a point guard like Harper to drive the offense.

If that scenario came to pass, what would Charlotte have to offer to move up to #1? Would you do it for the #2 pick and an unprotected 2026 pick? Or maybe the #2 pick, an unprotected 2026 pick and an unprotected 2028 pick?

Or is trading Flagg just a total non-starter?

I wonder how much we would have to offer to acquire the #2 pick from Charlotte while still keeping the #1? Would they do it for Sarr and Bub? Or perhaps Bilal and Bub? It would be pretty sweet to start next year with Harper AND Flagg.

I don't believe Flagg is going to be the best player in this class in 5 -years, although I would be thrilled to have him. I would be even MORE excited if we landed Harper, we need an Allstar/star PG badly to get the real rebuild humming.

[willbcocks]

I would be fine trading down from one to two and keeping Harper. Not fine trading down from one of those two players to any other players.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Watch on YouTube

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Wizards' dream scenario unfolds in viral NBA Mock Draft projection

https://wizofawes.com/washington-wizards-dream-scenario-unfolds-viral-nba-mock-draft-projection



Top 3 NBA Draft targets for the Wizards if they drop out of the top five

https://wizofawes.com/nba-draft-targets-washington-wizards-drop-top-five

[9 and 20]

I just ran a Tankathon mock. We ended up at #1 with Flagg. Charlotte had Harper at #2. I thought that was an interesting scenario. Charlotte doesn't really need Harper, and we are a team who really needs a point guard like Harper to drive the offense.

If that scenario came to pass, what would Charlotte have to offer to move up to #1? Would you do it for the #2 pick and an unprotected 2026 pick? Or maybe the #2 pick, an unprotected 2026 pick and an unprotected 2028 pick?

Or is trading Flagg just a total non-starter?

I wonder how much we would have to offer to acquire the #2 pick from Charlotte while still keeping the #1? Would they do it for Sarr and Bub? Or perhaps Bilal and Bub? It would be pretty sweet to start next year with Harper AND Flagg.

If we land #1 and Utah land #2, I think there is probably a trade there, too. It would take something along the lines of what you're throwing out there - 2 or 3 unprotected picks or swaps.

Maybe some team might consider Bilal and Sarr for #2? Kind of doubt it - it's our two best guys but it's also the two best guys from basically the worst team in the league.

Harper (Smart)
Bub/AJ (trade Poole)
Kyshawn
Flagg (Midddleton)
Vuk/18

Probably ensures another top lottery pick next year.

[JAR69]

Had a hilarious tankathon run after reading the recent Wiz Draft article on scenarios.
Spin 1: 6
Spin 2: 6
Spin 3: 5
Spin 4: 5
Spin 5: 6

Holy mother of god, if that's the kind of luck we bring monday, I'd walk out the lobby and not check back in again until May '26. Just, gtfo with that horse ----. A reminder of how insanely stupid the current lottery set up is.

I did one spin several weeks ago. The only spin I have ever done. It came up with Wizards at #1. I have kept it up on my browser, and I will do no others.

I will manfiest this.

[JAR69]

Double post

[JAR69]

Ugh, triple post.

[AFM]

Reminder, the lottery is Monday at 7 PM. I expect all of you to be in here lending your energy like Goku throwing a spirit bomb.




I'm ordering Dairy Queen beforehand for extra luck