The Consiglieri wrote:
I might be more interested in a more nuanced debate about how NIL payments, and the ever growing relevance of both the international market in prospects over the past 20 years, as well as growing relevance of analytics tweaked historical results and so changed a touch of the data of the more recent past, and how they might impact future classes and hit rates.
…
We know what this team is going to do.
They are going to use their first first, at slot (or trade up if by some miracle a team is interested in trading down).
With their second pick, they're picking at slot, or moving up. Could they trade it for a future? I could see that. What I can't see is a move down, unless future picks are a part of said trade.
….
I can see only one of two directions consistently and in general: Trying to acquire the highest upside prospects possible, and adding to the golden loom of picks in future years, that's what I'm about 1000% sure they're doing.
The NIL has a few effects. Some beneficial some questionable. Temporarily, at least it will shrink the draft pool, while there is an arm race between colleges that have deep pockets. This means that some players will return to school both to get paid and improve their draft position. This primarily affects players who are projected into the second round and the late First round.
However, interestingly, it means it will begin to attract European players who in the past were playing in club teams overseas. We’ve already seen that in players like Demin. The money that’s available in college is currently better than they are getting paid in pro leagues overseas. Or can be.
This will continue for a little bit since the CBA is locked in and the rookie pay scale is exceedingly cheap. Or at least it will be, compared to some of the auction money available for prized NCAA players. As far as the cap issues are concerned, however rookies will be an extremely good bargain, since the cap is due to explode when the new TV deals kick in
Still, one and done players Will always tend to jump immediately to the NBA to start their first contract. The true talents who are likely to be lottery picks can earn more money on there lifetime ledger the earlier they jump to the pro league.
However, this means the second half of the lottery will have Better seasoned players who stayed at least an additional year to improve their draft position. I think we will see better production from these players. They may not have the upside of the phenoms at the top of the draft, but a smart team will get excellent value from , the back half of the first round. I suspect some agents will try to maneuver their players to slip to the top half of the second round where contracts can be negotiated better.
I think the wizards are poised to do quite well exploding this market, once we get a core of high usage high-efficiency players from our top draft picks, we can build and supplement around them with fundamentally sound players that show steady progression at the back half of the first round.
If the draft continues to be starved of prospects, however, I suspect the competition committee will recommend a memorandum of understanding to adjust the rookie scale, and the union will not balk at paying their younger players better money.
Should make college ball more fun to watch, which isn't a bad thing. Other than the Wizards, I watch more college than NBA anyway!