Timberwolves vs Warriors - Game 3

[Onus]

These takes on dray are hilarious. He’s the only reason we were able to keep ant in check. Once he went to the bench our defense fell apart. Dray is absolutely critical for us to win a game in 90s. Yes he had a terrible game offensively but he is our defense.

If the refs didn’t call this game like a regular season game, people were literally just falling down and Scott foster would call a foul, I think we win. This game didn’t resemble playoff basketball at all.

[TB]

These takes on dray are hilarious. He’s the only reason we were able to keep ant in check. Once he went to the bench our defense fell apart. Dray is absolutely critical for us to win a game in 90s. Yes he had a terrible game offensively but he is our defense.

If the refs didn’t call this game like a regular season game, people were literally just falling down and Scott foster would call a foul, I think we win. This game didn’t resemble playoff basketball at all.

Agreed. Draymond has been by far the best defensive player in the playoffs. He’s forced some bad turnovers without Steph and hasn’t been consistent shooting, but his defense and offensive organization FAR outweigh the unforced errors.

[cpower]

the defense is ok but I am not sure what is the strategy here...ANT was injured so we barely blitz them, but we also let Reid/McDaniels/NAW all shooting better than 45% on threes.. the close out needs to be much better.

[jozef]

series over... should never start TJD.

Why?

margin is too small for us to gamble right now. TJD was actually not bad but i just dont see him making an impact against Gobert. better bet is having Looney to have a great rebounding game.

Looney was 1 of 4. TJD was 3 of 4 and rebounded his only miss. In the playoffs Looney shoots .389 and TJD .867 FG% in the playoffs. I know garbage but still. We need vertical presence.
There is no Steph for Kevon to set screens, passing the ball and coralling rebounds on smaller guys. We need scoring from everybody and stay coherent throughout the game. We fell off the flow with a bit stiffer players.

[whatisacenter]

These takes on dray are hilarious. He’s the only reason we were able to keep ant in check. Once he went to the bench our defense fell apart. Dray is absolutely critical for us to win a game in 90s. Yes he had a terrible game offensively but he is our defense.

If the refs didn’t call this game like a regular season game, people were literally just falling down and Scott foster would call a foul, I think we win. This game didn’t resemble playoff basketball at all.

Draymond was falling apart before he fouled out. Gambling of defense and turning the ball over. I think it was Jimmy fading down the stretch that cost them more than anything else.

The old guys are getting tired.

[Grumpy Heat Fan]

series is NOT over

They still have a shot at game 4 without steph

and even if down 3-1, when Steph comes back, the Ws have a real shot to win in 7 anyway if Steph is back to help

[Onus]

These takes on dray are hilarious. He’s the only reason we were able to keep ant in check. Once he went to the bench our defense fell apart. Dray is absolutely critical for us to win a game in 90s. Yes he had a terrible game offensively but he is our defense.

If the refs didn’t call this game like a regular season game, people were literally just falling down and Scott foster would call a foul, I think we win. This game didn’t resemble playoff basketball at all.

Draymond was falling apart before he fouled out. Gambling of defense and turning the ball over. I think it was Jimmy fading down the stretch that cost them more than anything else.

The old guys are getting tired.

Yea they were slowing down. But I expect them to have more energy in game 4 since there’s no travel.

Game 4 was the game I thought that they would get. We’ll see.

[HiRez]

series is NOT over

They still have a shot at game 4 without steph

and even if down 3-1, when Steph comes back, the Ws have a real shot to win in 7 anyway if Steph is back to help

Sure it's not over, but they just let probably the easiest opportunity for a win slip through their fingers. Maybe one of Podz or Moody will not completely suck, maybe Draymond won't be drunk and/or angry. But you know what? The Wolves have not been playing very well either, they can be a lot better. This Warriors team isn't going to outscore the 115+ points they can put on the board against us without Steph. Not a chance.

I mean of course I'll be watching and wanting them to win, but they aren't showing up like a team that wants to finish off an opponent. For me it all goes back to game 5 vs. Houston. In that game, they didn't show up to play, they were sloppy, disinterested, lethargic. Kerr even admitted he was intentionally punting the game. They played with their food and paid the price. They won the series but had to play 2 more grueling games, then start a new series against a well-rested team in less than 48 hours, and that fatigue could very well have been what caused Steph's hamstring strain, which is now putting their season on the brink. Even if they win another game they are fighting the accumulated price of not taking every game seriously.

[CS707]

Podz and Payton if you’re looking for guys to blame. In reality we don’t have much margin for error even with Steph. Without him it feels like the most we can do is delay the inevitable.

[WarriorGM]

Why?

The other starters are Butler, Podz, Hield, and Green. That foursome has had a positive plus minus against the Wolves' starting lineup when the fifth guy is GPII, Kuminga, or Santos. In other words the play so far indicates the Warriors best lineup is better than the Wolves best lineup. I presume the theory with playing TJD is that a big needs to be played to prevent the Wolves bigs like Gobert and Randle from abusing the smaller Warriors lineups but the data so far does not show that happening. Indeed it's when Post is played that they are the most negative. Until the Wolves can show that their bigs cannot be contained the Warriors should have an advantage here but Kerr is giving it away based on theory not actual practice.

Kerr seems to love giving up on lineups and conceding advantages to opponents based on theory and conventional wisdom despite a history of lineups that bucked theory having led to their dynasty. I can understand giving up on multiple guard lineups if they are losing the plus minus battle but not if they are winning. I also don't get the current allergy Kerr has with playing Draymond and Looney together. The main lineup in the 2022 championship season was Steph, Klay, Wiggins, Draymond and Looney—but now Draymond and Looney can never be played together?

The sample is so small that any plus minus are meaningless. Say Moody was -7 in Game 3 but he did no take any shot and he did not make any defensive mistake. We need to look at what's happening on the floor. Of course they can play small but TJD did not hurt them at all.
Looney can be useful with Curry gravitating two defenders. BUT NOW we need every player to be a threat. Post is one-dimensional and it's not enough in Curry-less team.

It may be a small sample size but it is the most relevant sample. We want to know what works against the Wolves. This was directly against the Wolves. Confidence in the results carrying forward maybe low as result but not meaningless and I think it would impart higher confidence than other rationalizations. For tactical and strategic reasons one might not do it but it's a defensible option to spam a winning lineup until the opposing team shows it can deal with it. The sample size will grow and you may be winning in the meantime. I think it's been great that Kerr has experimented with different lineups throughout the season but if you find winning lineups but don't go back to them what's the point of those experiments?

Moody was -7 in 3 minutes. Failed my quick rule of thumb for playable players but yes we need to look at what happens on the floor. Not shooting is possibly a problem. We've seen Moody be tentative these playoffs. This wasn't a one off. Maybe he should be doing something he wasn't doing. Or maybe as you say the -7 had nothing to do with Moody. But all else being equal I'd rather have a guy in there that went +7 with that lineup in 3 minutes rather than -7. I think your lineup idea with him might still be workable but it should probably be a starting lineup. Past experience shows results are better when Moody is starting and that -7 in 3 minutes had multiple lineup changes including getting paired with Kuminga which has been a mediocre pairing for a long time now.

The team went -2 with that TJD starting lineup. If they had gone +4 as other versions of that lineup with other players in place of TJD have gone, that would have been enough to cover the 5 point difference seen in the final score.

[Onus]

Game 4 is basically for the season. I expect Jimmy, dray, jk to play 40+. Hopefully dray doesn’t foul out. Need 1 of our shooters to go off and hopefully an unexpected contributor. Hopefully we can make it another rock fight.

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

[SpreeS]

This season is over….Kerr couldn’t incorporate Kuminga and burned out our veterans. That was so shortsighted.

To rush Curry back isn’t a smartest thing. We have a lot examples, the last one was Lillard. Another one Kobe…Durant could be added….this is the scariest thing for me at the moment.

[watch1958]

This season is over….Kerr couldn’t incorporate Kuminga and burned out our veterans. That was so shortsighted.

To rush Curry back isn’t a smartest thing. We have a lot examples, the last one was Lillard. Another one Kobe…Durant could be added….this is the scariest thing for me at the moment.

Curry listed as out on the official injury report.

[SpreeS]

This season is over….Kerr couldn’t incorporate Kuminga and burned out our veterans. That was so shortsighted.

To rush Curry back isn’t a smartest thing. We have a lot examples, the last one was Lillard. Another one Kobe…Durant could be added….this is the scariest thing for me at the moment.

Curry listed as out on the official injury report.

So?

[SpreeS]

this series nail so far

Randle 34.6min 22.0pts 6.7reb 9.7ast 3.0tov .569ts +9.2bpm +9.0p/m 96.2drtg (the best on team)
Green 30.9min 9.7pts 4.7reb 5.0ast 3.7tov .504ts -1.8bpm +1.0p/m

Randle vs Green matchup 62pos

Randle 62pos 18pts 9ast 1tov .605ts (7-14/2-4/2-2)
Randle 75pos 21.8pts 10.9ast 1.2tov .605ts

Crazy Randle production against Green. This is Magic Johnson stats...

[superunknown]

the series so far is our guards and wing players unable to shoot. it's really that simple. in game 3, even if randle outplayed dray and edwards went off for 36, dubs matched that with butler and kuminga combining for 60+ points. you didn't lose the game because of randle outplaying green, you lost becasue aside from hield no other role player could hit a shot. every other team left in the playoffs has (multiple) role players who can hit open looks or at the very least be serviceable spot-up shooters. if podz, moody, GPII, post, green himself cannot hit open looks or spot-up 3s, the L is on them regardless of anything else. podz and moody are supposed to be your starting wings, right now cason wallace, isaiah joe and aaron wiggins - OKC bench players - are much more reliable than them as spot-up shooters. post is supposed to be your stretch big, he cannot even take a shot.
make the fuc***g open 3s and spot-up shots or get the fu** out of the bay.

[brandon87]

series is NOT over

They still have a shot at game 4 without steph

and even if down 3-1, when Steph comes back, the Ws have a real shot to win in 7 anyway if Steph is back to help

If the Warriors are 3-1 down I don’t believe he’s coming back.

[SpreeS]

the series so far is our guards and wing players unable to shoot. it's really that simple. in game 3, even if randle outplayed dray and edwards went off for 36, dubs matched that with butler and kuminga combining for 60+ points. you didn't lose the game because of randle outplaying green, you lost becasue aside from hield no other role player could hit a shot. every other team left in the playoffs has (multiple) role players who can hit open looks or at the very least be serviceable spot-up shooters. if podz, moody, GPII, post, green himself cannot hit open looks or spot-up 3s, the L is on them regardless of anything else. podz and moody are supposed to be your starting wings, right now cason wallace, isaiah joe and aaron wiggins - OKC bench players - are much more reliable than them as spot-up shooters. post is supposed to be your stretch big, he cannot even take a shot.
make the fuc***g open 3s and spot-up shots or get the fu** out of the bay.

To shoot needs space, not everyone is Curry or Butler or even Buddy...Green's man clog the paint, so wings not overhelping and are closer to shooters. A job to defend shooters become even way more easier, if we add Payton and Looney into the mix. If Post is unplayable and he is, so you need only to stick to Moody, Hield and Podz, everyone else (Butler/Green/Kuminga/Payton) could shoot as much as they want...

Green defence is still elite, but he hurts offence on the same level as helping on defence and maybe more...

Wide open shots from 3P with MIN

Hield/Podz/Moody combined 6.0 3PA (.550 3P%)
Butler/Green/Kuminga/Payton combined 11.3 3PA

Wide open shots from 3P with HOU

Hield/Podz/Moody combined 9.4 3PA (.394 3P%)

So no Curry no chaos, Green is left in no one land....

[DB23]

These takes on dray are hilarious. He’s the only reason we were able to keep ant in check. Once he went to the bench our defense fell apart. Dray is absolutely critical for us to win a game in 90s. Yes he had a terrible game offensively but he is our defense.

If the refs didn’t call this game like a regular season game, people were literally just falling down and Scott foster would call a foul, I think we win. This game didn’t resemble playoff basketball at all.

In the friendliest way possible I don’t see how you can watch the game and say this.

I love draymond, one of my favorite all time. But offensively he was an epic disaster.

Defensively he fouled out when we needed him. And while he was unlucky with the Randle charge, he left himself in a position to pick you his 6th, out of position and a hand on his hip. It was harsh for sure but he seemed really put out the whole game by the narrative leading in. And sadly this has happened before when Steph goes out.

I believe he can put in his best performance of the season tomorrow and that’s what I expect and hope.