Debunking the KAT Narratives (Playoffs)

[Chanel Bomber]

The KAT narratives are funny.

On/off per 100 possessions in the playoffs

Mitch +18.4
Deuce +13.5
Hart +12.3
KAT +1.1
Brunson -1.3
OG -27.5
Mikal -29.9

It's our "Wingstop" duo that has failed us more than anything.

Defensive on/off per 100 possessions in the playoffs (inverted positive/negative for clarity)

Mitch +17.2
Deuce +9.0
Hart +1.1
KAT -3.9
Mikal -10.6
OG -12.1
Brunson -18.7

Defensively, Brunson - not KAT - has been by far our biggest weakness.

Waiting to get defensive EPM scores for the playoffs, but this already gives us a pretty solid indication of how most of our issues are coming from elsewhere. It's our attachment to last year's team that is clouding our judgement. In reality, our centers from iHart to Mitch and KAT have covered a lot of deeper issues within the roster.

[K_ick_God]

Pretty eye opening

OG and Mikal have been brutal

Deuce needs to play more

[Deeeez Knicks]

The sample size is very small so there's a lot of noise in the individual plus/minus type numbers especially in the playoffs. Both KAT and Brunson are bad defensively but of course we need them offensively. OG and Mikal were huge defensively in games 1 and 2. There defense was a big reason we won. They do have the toughest assignments and need to help cover for Brunson and KAT. Don't think the numbers does there defense justice. Defensive plus/minus numbers in small samples are just never that accurate.

In general our starters have not played well together though especially against Boston. Think Thibs needs to stagger and mix things up better.

[Chanel Bomber]

The sample size is very small so there's a lot of noise in the individual plus/minus type numbers especially in the playoffs. Both KAT and Brunson are bad defensively but of course we need them offensively. OG and Mikal were huge defensively in games 1 and 2. There defense was a big reason we won. They do have the toughest assignments and need to help cover for Brunson and KAT. Don't think the numbers does there defense justice. Defensive plus/minus numbers in small samples are just never that accurate.

In general our starters have not played well together though especially against Boston. Think Thibs needs to stagger and mix things up better.

There is noise but the data here is for the most part consistent with regular season patterns, just more extreme. And extreme values are more often than not telling - it's the values in the middle that are inherently more open to interpretation. Playoff EPM which denoises quite effectively will likely shrink the gaps but likely confirm the trends to a degree.

But the 82-game sample shows that Brunson is far worse than KAT on defense, that Mikal is overall a non-impactful defender, and that OG's defense has slipped compared to last year. I think all those statements are accurate. So we shouldn't be surprised that they hold up in the postseason. I fully recognize of course that Mikal and OG had some stellar defensive moments, but I don't think they tell the whole story either. OG has played 90% of his playoff minutes with Brunson (the extreme value) which drags his defensive numbers down - he's our best defender after Mitch.

The point was that the criticism of KAT as this complete defensive liability is exaggerated and not supported at all by the data that is currently available. Which isn't to say that he has played well.

[K_ick_God]

This isn’t your point and can’t be proven with data but does Mikal or KAT ever seem integrated in the offense? Not much. To the extent they get a pass from someone and that’s about it

OG a little more

Hart more so … it is as if Hart reps Brunson and makes sure he’s the liaison between Brunson and the rest of the team … no direct contact lol

[Deeeez Knicks]

The sample size is very small so there's a lot of noise in the individual plus/minus type numbers especially in the playoffs. Both KAT and Brunson are bad defensively but of course we need them offensively. OG and Mikal were huge defensively in games 1 and 2. There defense was a big reason we won. They do have the toughest assignments and need to help cover for Brunson and KAT. Don't think the numbers does there defense justice. Defensive plus/minus numbers in small samples are just never that accurate.

In general our starters have not played well together though especially against Boston. Think Thibs needs to stagger and mix things up better.

There is noise but the data here is for the most part consistent with regular season patterns, just more extreme. And extreme values are more often than not telling - it's the values in the middle that are inherently more open to interpretation. Playoff EPM which denoises quite effectively will likely shrink the gaps but likely confirm the trends to a degree.

But the 82-game sample shows that Brunson is far worse than KAT on defense, that Mikal is overall a non-impactful defender, and that OG's defense has slipped compared to last year. I think all those statements are accurate. So we shouldn't be surprised that they hold up in the postseason. I fully recognize of course that Mikal and OG had some stellar defensive moments, but I don't think they tell the whole story either. OG has played 90% of his playoff minutes with Brunson (the extreme value) which drags his defensive numbers down - he's our best defender after Mitch.

The point was that the criticism of KAT as this complete defensive liability is exaggerated and not supported at all by the data that is currently available. Which isn't to say that he has played well.

The criticism of KAT is exaggerated by some so don't disagree on that part, but at the same time both he and Brunson are liabilities.

Both OG and Mikal are mostly playing great defense throughout the playoffs. Mikal has been an impactful defender...i mean he helped win a few games on defense. I think a lot of the hits we see with them in the numbers is playing next to Brunson and KAT. They are going against great players who will hit shots but have played them well for the most part. And looking at the overall numbers, our defense has been good.

Offense is another story. Our shooting numbers have been dreadful this series.

[thebuzzardman]

Damn. Brunson sucks. Trade him ASAP.

He's no Haliburton, apparently.

[thebuzzardman]

Basically the data says Brunson and KAT suck being on the same team.

Which one are we trading first?

[Chanel Bomber]

The sample size is very small so there's a lot of noise in the individual plus/minus type numbers especially in the playoffs. Both KAT and Brunson are bad defensively but of course we need them offensively. OG and Mikal were huge defensively in games 1 and 2. There defense was a big reason we won. They do have the toughest assignments and need to help cover for Brunson and KAT. Don't think the numbers does there defense justice. Defensive plus/minus numbers in small samples are just never that accurate.

In general our starters have not played well together though especially against Boston. Think Thibs needs to stagger and mix things up better.

There is noise but the data here is for the most part consistent with regular season patterns, just more extreme. And extreme values are more often than not telling - it's the values in the middle that are inherently more open to interpretation. Playoff EPM which denoises quite effectively will likely shrink the gaps but likely confirm the trends to a degree.

But the 82-game sample shows that Brunson is far worse than KAT on defense, that Mikal is overall a non-impactful defender, and that OG's defense has slipped compared to last year. I think all those statements are accurate. So we shouldn't be surprised that they hold up in the postseason. I fully recognize of course that Mikal and OG had some stellar defensive moments, but I don't think they tell the whole story either. OG has played 90% of his playoff minutes with Brunson (the extreme value) which drags his defensive numbers down - he's our best defender after Mitch.

The point was that the criticism of KAT as this complete defensive liability is exaggerated and not supported at all by the data that is currently available. Which isn't to say that he has played well.

The criticism of KAT is exaggerated by some so don't disagree on that part, but at the same time both he and Brunson are liabilities.

Both OG and Mikal are mostly playing great defense throughout the playoffs. Mikal has been an impactful defender...i mean he helped win a few games on defense. I think a lot of the hits we see with them in the numbers is playing next to Brunson and KAT. They are going against great players who will hit shots but have played them well for the most part. And looking at the overall numbers, our defense has been good.

Offense is another story. Our shooting numbers have been dreadful this series.

But that's the point.

KAT is not the defensive liability that Brunson is.

The data for the regular season and playoffs overwhelmingly points to a significant gap between the two players on defense. That they're comparable defensively is the myth that is debunked by the numbers.

The latter part is not logical. Their numbers are not hit by KAT, otherwise he would not have a better defensive on/off than them by such a large margin. The reality is that their numbers are dragged down by Brunson, and this also suggests they don't provide the outsize defensive impact you and others seem to assume to begin with.

Bridges has made some key defensive plays but I don't think he's been impactful on the whole. Over the course of 48 minutes, he's pretty much neutral as a defender. Maybe above-average.