The OFFICIAL "Was the 2025 NBA draft rigged?"

[Optms]

Rigging would require:

1. Kyrie not getting hurt.

2. Dallas losing the play-ins.

(and as I wrote in the other thread...)

3. Ernst and Young is risking its reputation as one of the biggest and most profitable auditing firms in the world simply to help the Mavs.

4. EVERY team representative who watches the live drawing behind the scenes either being okay with the outcome because they know about it or not raising a stink about it (which they won't, because it's how lotteries work and fans don't care about that).

It's all apart of the process to move the team out of Dallas. The consipracy theorist were right.

Move the team to Vegas to further enable gambling, its what the owners wanted all along. And with Silvers league filled with promoting gambling, falls in line.

[NyKnicks1714]

Rigging would require:

1. Kyrie not getting hurt.

2. Dallas losing the play-ins.

(and as I wrote in the other thread...)

3. Ernst and Young is risking its reputation as one of the biggest and most profitable auditing firms in the world simply to help the Mavs.

4. EVERY team representative who watches the live drawing behind the scenes either being okay with the outcome because they know about it or not raising a stink about it (which they won't, because it's how lotteries work and fans don't care about that).

This is the part no one will ever address. Unless people think that every team is indeed in on it and that it somehow has never been leaked.

[right between the eyes]

Nobody can explain why the Mavs didn't have a bidding war for Luka. Think about it. The deal happened in the middle of the night and surprised everyone. The only explanation is that the number one pick was promised at that point. And again just like the trade, this brings all the eyes back on the NBA. Mission accomplished!

[baller16]

The odds of the top three picks in the 2025 NBA Draft being Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, and Philadelphia 76ers, in that exact order, were approximately 0.0114%, or about 1 in 8,772. This figure comes from posts found on X discussing the lottery outcome.

To break it down:
Dallas Mavericks had a 1.8% chance of landing the No. 1 pick.

San Antonio Spurs had a 6.0% chance of landing the No. 2 pick (after Dallas secured No. 1).

Philadelphia 76ers had a 10.5% chance of landing the No. 3 pick (after the first two were assigned).

These individual probabilities, when multiplied (0.018 × 0.06 × 0.105), yield the extremely low combined probability of 0.0114%. The lottery results were highly improbable, sparking significant discussion online due to the unlikelihood of this exact sequence occurring.

[SOUL]

The league has revenue sharing. 99% of owners don't care about their teams. And even if they didn't have revenue sharing, the owners just want the league to increase in value across the board, which will inevitably increase the value of their team.

If people believe this, there's literally no point to watch the NBA and it should shut down. I don't think you guys realize how much of a scandal that would be, probably the biggest in sports history.

The fact that there were built in conspiracy theories for like 8 teams before the draft even started just shows people want to believe in it and then use confirmation bias. I think at one point, in the past (Ewing draft) - it could definitely be rigged. But right now, it's simply too risky to do so.

[ChiTownHero1992]

100% without a doubt it was, but at the same time i'd say about 85-90% of NBA fans KNEW this was going to happen it was inevitable.

Just like Bucks are now GUARANTEED the #1 pick in 2026 when they trade Giannis.

[KGDirkTD_Fan]

Rigging would require:

1. Kyrie not getting hurt.

2. Dallas losing the play-ins.

(and as I wrote in the other thread...)

3. Ernst and Young is risking its reputation as one of the biggest and most profitable auditing firms in the world simply to help the Mavs.

4. EVERY team representative who watches the live drawing behind the scenes either being okay with the outcome because they know about it or not raising a stink about it (which they won't, because it's how lotteries work and fans don't care about that).

I'm a CPA i can tell you,

if there's any accounting firm that would risk their reputation for millions of dollars, it's one of the big four (regional firms)

i also work in the industry, the B4 would definitely do this lol. They were in trouble on cheating on ethics exams not that long ago. They just do what their clients tell them to do.

[Raps in 4]

The league has revenue sharing. 99% of owners don't care about their teams. And even if they didn't have revenue sharing, the owners just want the league to increase in value across the board, which will inevitably increase the value of their team.

If people believe this, there's literally no point to watch the NBA and it should shut down. I don't think you guys realize how much of a scandal that would be, probably the biggest in sports history.

The fact that there were built in conspiracy theories for like 8 teams before the draft even started just shows people want to believe in it and then use confirmation bias. I think at one point, in the past (Ewing draft) - it could definitely be rigged. But right now, it's simply too risky to do so.

I don't think it's risky at all. Billionaires collude all the time to manipulate markets. This is no different to me. They exist above the law. Above arbitrary rules in a sports league.

[RoteSchroder]

Explain how it is rigged - like how are they rigging it?

By giving the Mavericks Cooper Flagg in exchange for revitalizing the Lakers who were on their death bed. This is OBVIOUS.

That’s not explaining HOW (the process) is rigged. What are they doing exactly to rig it? Are you saying the balls weighted differently? (Smart Play weighs them, certifies and seals them) Are you saying the machine is rigged? (Smart Play manufacturers the machines - just like they manufacturer systems for most major lotteries - no incentive to cheat)
How is it rigged? I am not searching for conspiracy theories.

The only theory I have is magnetic coating/paint on the balls with an electromagnetic coil in the machine.

It can’t be physically weighted because the balls are re-used.

[SOUL]

I press the Tankathon mock draft thing and teams move up a crazy amount like 40% of the time. It's the same mechanisms IRL where all it takes is one combination to move specific teams up on ONE roll. It's not like it's taking the most probably outcome over the course of 1,000 drawings. This is how statistics work.

Gonna re-post something I saw on reddit:

"People just don't want to believe things anymore. They don't believe in the government. They don't believe in teachers. They don't believe in the justice system. That leaks out into pop culture. They don't believe in the NBA. They don't believe in the NFL. They don't believe in anything anymore."

The current lottery system itself was from people complaining about tanking and bad teams benefiting from being bad simply by sucking. I never saw a problem with it because it did what it was supposed to (usually) - which was benefit the worst teams. Most of the tanking arguments on this forum are 80% people complaining about bad teams and wanting every team at more fairer odds. Well, this is what you get, and it would be even worse if pushed towards every team getting the same odds.

[bmurph128]

Chicago is a big market and has been stuck in purgatory for 26 years. If they were going to rig it, Flagg would be headed to Chicago.

Parity is also the absolute best thing for the league - the West playoffs this year are fascinating because 2-7 were all comparable teams. So having Flagg in the East would also have been better.

There are also more people in the eastern time zone, and thus ratings would be higher if the East had better teams/more stars.

You put all that together and it amounts to proof that it is NOT rigged

Sent from my Pixel 6 using RealGM mobile app

[ItsDanger]

There was a lot of people predicting this outcome and it happened. Questions need to be asked. I think its a joke the last place team picking 5th again? Look, Wizards are just bad, they needed help and NBA and their flattened odds are **** over franchises.

[Rainwater]

I’m losing brain cells just reading this forum

This is sadly the world now. Things don't go people's way and everything is a conspiracy theory/rigged instead of realizing how lottery systems work in general.

I think the Ewing draft was rigged for sure because of how they did it, but now they have representatives behind the stage when the balls are being drawn, meaning every team in the league would have to be "IN" on a specific team winning a generational talent. Yeah, not happening.

Just massive amounts of stupidity in the world right now but I'll chalk most of it up to emotions and anger lol.

Completely agree

[Optms]

There was a lot of people predicting this outcome and it happened. Questions need to be asked. I think its a joke the last place team picking 5th again? Look, Wizards are just bad, they needed help and NBA and their flattened odds are **** over franchises.

Wizards weren't even trying to tank. Neither Charlotte. Just awful management that has been whiffing for years. Beal contract, Poole, Kuma and LaMelo not staying healthy. Bridges debacle, etc.

[LordCovington33]

By giving the Mavericks Cooper Flagg in exchange for revitalizing the Lakers who were on their death bed. This is OBVIOUS.

That’s not explaining HOW (the process) is rigged. What are they doing exactly to rig it? Are you saying the balls weighted differently? (Smart Play weighs them, certifies and seals them) Are you saying the machine is rigged? (Smart Play manufacturers the machines - just like they manufacturer systems for most major lotteries - no incentive to cheat)
How is it rigged? I am not searching for conspiracy theories.

The only theory I have is magnetic coating/paint on the balls with an electromagnetic coil in the machine.

It can’t be physically weighted because the balls are re-used.

Smart Play makes the balls and certifies them

[ItsDanger]

Chicago is a big market and has been stuck in purgatory for 26 years. If they were going to rig it, Flagg would be headed to Chicago.

Parity is also the absolute best thing for the league - the West playoffs this year are fascinating because 2-7 were all comparable teams. So having Flagg in the East would also have been better.

There are also more people in the eastern time zone, and thus ratings would be higher if the East had better teams/more stars.

You put all that together and it amounts to proof that it is NOT rigged

Sent from my Pixel 6 using RealGM mobile app

There's zero proof of anything. But there's certainly parity for the bottom end treadmill teams. Condemned to struggle in perpetuity.

[Rainwater]

Chicago is a big market and has been stuck in purgatory for 26 years. If they were going to rig it, Flagg would be headed to Chicago.

Parity is also the absolute best thing for the league - the West playoffs this year are fascinating because 2-7 were all comparable teams. So having Flagg in the East would also have been better.

There are also more people in the eastern time zone, and thus ratings would be higher if the East had better teams/more stars.

You put all that together and it amounts to proof that it is NOT rigged

Sent from my Pixel 6 using RealGM mobile app

Completely agree, I don’t people are really looking at this logically or just don’t know how the process works.

[zimpy27]

Rigging would require:

1. Kyrie not getting hurt.

2. Dallas losing the play-ins.

(and as I wrote in the other thread...)

3. Ernst and Young is risking its reputation as one of the biggest and most profitable auditing firms in the world simply to help the Mavs.

4. EVERY team representative who watches the live drawing behind the scenes either being okay with the outcome because they know about it or not raising a stink about it (which they won't, because it's how lotteries work and fans don't care about that).

5. The league, acutely aware of the history of belief in NBA draft tampering, would then make an openly obvious move like this. The league would both have to be idiots and involved in this mutli-layered plot to tamper.

[Kent]

The odds of the top three picks in the 2025 NBA Draft being Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, and Philadelphia 76ers, in that exact order, were approximately 0.0114%, or about 1 in 8,772. This figure comes from posts found on X discussing the lottery outcome.

To break it down:
Dallas Mavericks had a 1.8% chance of landing the No. 1 pick.

San Antonio Spurs had a 6.0% chance of landing the No. 2 pick (after Dallas secured No. 1).

Philadelphia 76ers had a 10.5% chance of landing the No. 3 pick (after the first two were assigned).

These individual probabilities, when multiplied (0.018 × 0.06 × 0.105), yield the extremely low combined probability of 0.0114%. The lottery results were highly improbable, sparking significant discussion online due to the unlikelihood of this exact sequence occurring.

[levon]

So the Ewing draft was rigged for sure because of how they did it but this one isn't rigged because other stupid people believe other conspiracy theories? Or is it because we don't yet know exactly when the quid pro quo convos happened or when they swapped envelopes?

This outcome was a 1 in over 8000 chance that those 3 teams would those odds would achieve the top 3 picks. Then when you account for all three teams having very strong narrative reasons to get a high draft pick, and the other questionable lottery outcomes, this looks incredibly suspicious for the league. It is what it is and "everyone is stupid or gullible or doesn't trust authority" isn't a valid defense given that that's exactly what stupid conspiracy theorists also say. It isn't in and of itself an argument for or against rigging the lottery.

I'm someone who has fought the conspiracy narratives for years and I'm a fan of the Lakers who've been presumptive beneficiaries. This moment changed how I feel about the product completely. The story isn't "how did they do it". It's that this is a disastrous outcome for the perception of the NBA.