Draft Lottery 2025 Tonight @ 7pm TSN

[bballsparkin]

Tricky spot really, I don't think Edgecombe or Bailey helps them much right away. 3rd pick is also making over 10m a year, that factors in quite a bit on a team with 3 max contracts.

For sure, good point about the 10m.

[bballsparkin]

imagine being jazz fans right now.

Another positive spin on this lottery after how shamelessly Utah tanked. It's funny.

[Brinbe]

imagine being jazz fans right now.

Another positive spin on this lottery after how shamelessly Utah tanked. It's funny.

Read on Twitter

[Cyrus]

Don't worry yall, with our mid roster and eventual BI injury and we hover around play in terrority, we'll get rewarded with #1 next year....

Wait minute...

[Ari_Emanuel]

Early Top 10 Mock:

DAL - Flagg
MIL- Harper (Spurs trade this pick & others to get Giannis)
PHI - Bailey
CHA - VJ
UT - Tre
WAS - Maluach (they fell in love with Bilal & Sarr's measurables etc, we've heard teams wanna trade up for KM, I think they take him)
NOP - Fears
BKN - Queen
TOR - Bryant * in Raptors' fashion, have to be bit of a "shock" in the draft
HOU - Kon

I'm good with us drafting a prototypical wing at 9th if Bryant is there. We have a pretty good track record with those types of players, and we've seen enough mod to late lottery wings end up being top 2 or three players of their draft to take that risk.

Kon has become the wild card. Will anyone take him before our pic? We need him or some other surprise pick to jump into the top 8. Who might that be?

If Kon is available at 9 I think you have to take him as a value pick and figure the roster out after.

I understand why you'd say that. Imo, Kon's offensive potential with his IQ and skill are comparable to Bryant's defensive upside.

Feels like we're comparing a pre-injury Gordon Hayward projection versus a Mikal or OG projection.

Which do we value more, and who is more likely to attain their highest comp?

I can see either one eventually becoming the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best player from this draft. It will painful if we make the wrong decision though.

[Tha Cynic]

Cool facts:

-I have a greater chance at being hit by a lightning bolt 3 separate times within a 58 min and 12 second period of time, than the odds of tonight's draft lotto.

-I have a greater chance at being bitten by a tiger shark 3 separate times and walk away to tell my story. The same, exact, shark... , than the odds of tonight's draft lotto.

-There's only a 17% greater chance that an "interplanetary space matter" hits and destroy the planet Earth within the next 3 years, than the odds of tonight's draft lotto.

Dallas got the only combination of numbers that would have possibly won them the draft.

I give this their odds that it wasn't rigged.

[bballsparkin]

We'll never know.

Yeah increasing the visibility will makes it much harder to rig.

How do you know? Multi billionaire dollar industry we're talking about.

edit: if you saw it on tv well then by golly it must be real.

[Pointgod]

We also had one less win than the Spurs, who got the 2nd pick. It would have been better for us to win one more.

Sure but you can’t predict that, but you can be on the right side of the probability to stay in the top 5. No one in their right mind would choose a 52% chance for a top 4 pick over a 26% and 8.6% chance.

Sure, but it depends what it costs you. Gutting your team to get that edge may not be worth it. This team was not going to lost less than Washington, the Jazz, the Nets, and the Hornets once they lost their guys to injury. We just have way better players. To get to their level, we'd have to sell off talent. You have to enter this into the equation.

I keep hearing people say that we’d have to gut our team to lose. I believe at some point in the season we had the third worst record in the league. Do you think we’d have to trade every player to maintain that lead? People questioned why we were playing vets when we had that mini run in January. Could have been simple as trading Poeltl, Boucher and either Brown or Olynyk. You can arguably still make the trade for Ingram and the only difference is that you have more assets having moved Poeltl and Boucher. I’d still rather push the lottery probabilities in our favour than a half measure.

[Duffman100]

I'm good with us drafting a prototypical wing at 9th if Bryant is there. We have a pretty good track record with those types of players, and we've seen enough mod to late lottery wings end up being top 2 or three players of their draft to take that risk.

Kon has become the wild card. Will anyone take him before our pic? We need him or some other surprise pick to jump into the top 8. Who might that be?

If Kon is available at 9 I think you have to take him as a value pick and figure the roster out after.

I understand why you'd say that. Imo, Kon's offensive potential with his IQ and skill are comparable to Bryant's defensive upside.

Feels like we're comparing a pre-injury Gordon Hayward projection versus a Mikal or OG projection.

Which do we value more, and who is more likely to attain their highest comp?

I can see either one eventually becoming the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best player from this draft. It will painful if we make the wrong decision though.

Except to me Kon played at that big stage whereas Bryant is a lot of hypothetical.

[UnderdogRaptors]

We were locked in at 5 too lmfao

[B-Ball Freak]

Don't worry yall, with our mid roster and eventual BI injury and we hover around play in terrority, we'll get rewarded with #1 next year....

Wait minute...

We'll have to wait for a Canadian phenom for that. They gave us Bargnani in 06, We'll have to wait a while.

[Duffman100]

Sure but you can’t predict that, but you can be on the right side of the probability to stay in the top 5. No one in their right mind would choose a 52% chance for a top 4 pick over a 26% and 8.6% chance.

Sure, but it depends what it costs you. Gutting your team to get that edge may not be worth it. This team was not going to lost less than Washington, the Jazz, the Nets, and the Hornets once they lost their guys to injury. We just have way better players. To get to their level, we'd have to sell off talent. You have to enter this into the equation.

I keep hearing people say that we’d have to gut our team to lose. I believe at some point in the season we had the third worst record in the league. Do you think we’d have to trade every player to maintain that lead? People questioned why we were playing vets when we had that mini run in January. Could have been simple as trading Poeltl, Boucher and either Brown or Olynyk. You can arguably still make the trade for Ingram and the only difference is that you have more assets having moved Poeltl and Boucher. I’d still rather push the lottery probabilities in our favour than a half measure.

Except say you still don't win the lottery, now you're picking 7th rather than 9th and you don't have a starting center.

[ishoy123]

Lol I'm not saying the draft necessary wasn't rigged, but some of you really need to understand how statistics and probability work

If we're going to talk statistics and probabilities, the math says there's a 0.012% chance that the top 3 picks played out the way they did. That's a 1 in 8,319 chance. The NBA lottery has been around for 40 years, so you'd have to repeat the entire history of the NBA lottery 200 times for this to ever happen again.

You have a 2-3x higher chance of getting a perfect SAT score (1 in 3,400).
If you played high school sports, the odds of you going pro or to the Olympics is 1 in 1,400, so 6x more likely than this top 3 lotto.
You're about 10x more likely to have been born with an extra finger or toe (1 in 500-1000).
You're also about 10x more likely to catch a foul ball at a random baseball game you attend.
Getting a hole in one is about a 1 in 12,500 chance.

We're talking about some prettttty low probabilities here.

The probability of any specific order of 3 teams, even if it was WAS, UTA, CHA or something like that, is extremely low

[B-Ball Freak]

Imagine how Jazz fans feel lol, if that Luka trade never happened Flagg was theirs. Storyline is the number one priority for the NBA above everything else.

[PushDaRock]

Actually just occurred to me that Dallas also won the WNBA lottery as well lol. Got to be a first that the same city won both lotteries for the #1 pick and they happened to be for arguably generational talents too

[JB7]

Bulls picked 12. Wouldn't the NBA move the bulls up? Huge market

I mean there are 3 teams out of 14 that have some insane reason to move up and they all did. No one was talking about "Imagine if the bulls won the lotto". For the team who traded Luka to the damn lakers to get 1, the team with the next face of the NBA they are trying to build a franchise around to get 2nd, and the huge market team with superstar and supporting cast already in place to get 3rd. Literally all the "narrative" teams moved up. The chances of what we have just witnessed to actually happen legitimately are staggering. This league continues to make us all look like idiots. The only thing that didn't hit was the "cooper is white so he go Utah" narrative.

Mavs pick is rigged but I dont understand why the league would keep helping out the Spurs for decades. They dont need any more help.

Wonder if the Wemby blood clot issue is worse then what is being reported.

[kalel123]

Wow, all that artificial losing (pulling starters in 4th) for nothing.

If anybody wanted to say NBA draft was rigged, this is the year to do it. Looks very suspicious how it went down.

All the "fixing" of lottery odds did is make it easier to rig the lottery IMO when they feel like it. More excuses for them to award top 4 pick to whoever the **** NBA wants to. Didn't fix nothing about rampant tanking (I mean, we were one of the worst culprits) and those teams can't even get good picks to show for it.

[bballsparkin]

I hope Masai stays forever. But his Losing draft positions is well deserved after the disrespect towards real fans and players that started in Orlando. Should have used ~20 games to have an initial accessement of that new special Frontline and try to play-in

kinda nice to keep Ingram sitting and hopefully fully healed up for next year's playoff run. 9th is good. I'm content. It was pretty shameless tanking though. That's more of a league problem.

[deeps6x]

It sure feels like they aren't even trying to hide how rigged this is.

Also, FWIW, this was NOT on TSN out west. They thought it was more important to show some **** OHL(?) game. Had to watch it on the NBA channel instead.

Payback for Luca

[DelAbbot]

You know we were games ahead of Philadelphia at the deadline right? The same Philadelphia team that just moved up to grab the third pick. We also dropped 2 spots last lottery as well. It just goes to show you that you either go all in for the tank or you try to compete and pray for luck like Atlanta and Dallas if you fall short. But no more half measures.

We also had one less win than the Spurs, who got the 2nd pick. It would have been better for us to win one more.

Sure but you can’t predict that, but you can be on the right side of the probability to stay in the top 5. No one in their right mind would choose a 52% chance for a top 4 pick over a 26% and 8.6% chance.

A posteriori argument would