Draft Lottery 2025 Tonight @ 7pm TSN

[ForeverTFC]

Sure but you can’t predict that, but you can be on the right side of the probability to stay in the top 5. No one in their right mind would choose a 52% chance for a top 4 pick over a 26% and 8.6% chance.

Sure, but it depends what it costs you. Gutting your team to get that edge may not be worth it. This team was not going to lost less than Washington, the Jazz, the Nets, and the Hornets once they lost their guys to injury. We just have way better players. To get to their level, we'd have to sell off talent. You have to enter this into the equation.

I keep hearing people say that we’d have to gut our team to lose. I believe at some point in the season we had the third worst record in the league. Do you think we’d have to trade every player to maintain that lead? People questioned why we were playing vets when we had that mini run in January. Could have been simple as trading Poeltl, Boucher and either Brown or Olynyk. You can arguably still make the trade for Ingram and the only difference is that you have more assets having moved Poeltl and Boucher. I’d still rather push the lottery probabilities in our favour than a half measure.

Because this ignores the fact that most of the team was injured to begin the season. You can't just project that record forward. Let's say we traded Poeltl (a move that would have resulted in more losses) and ended with the 4th-6th best odds. I think we both agree the 7th and 8th pick would not have been worth that. So off the bat, your most likely outcome is a bad one. Then there is the 1/3rd chance at the 3rd pick. And what does that give us? Bailey? Edgecomb? Harper?

It's just not worth it. Again, if you look at the draft, picking 6-10 is interchangeable.

[Pointgod]

They do have slightly higher picks, but they also have way worse teams that aren't sniffing the playoffs anytime soon, and the calibre of prospects they were hoping for at 1-2 has gotten a bit worse at 5-6, so I can't imagine the jazz and wizards are all that jazzed about the drop.

Detroit is living proof that no one can make definitive statements like this. Both the Jazz and the Wizards have young talent, cap flexibility, a top 6 pick in the draft plus a bunch of draft capital. Doesn’t mean they’ll do anything with it but their situation is not hopeless.

Who said anything about Detroit... We're talking Washington and Utah... My argument is the Raps have much more talent than either team... Are you betting money on both/either Utah or Wiz making the playoffs in the next 2 years?

Detroit had the worst record in the league last season. Now they’re the 6th seed. My point is that you can’t speak in absolutes. The Wizards and Jazz have a bunch of young talent, lots of future draft capital and flexibility. They’re rebuilding and their teams have a couple options

[bballsparkin]

Actually just occurred to me that Dallas also won the WNBA lottery as well lol. Got to be a first that the same city won both lotteries for the #1 pick and they happened to be for arguably generational talents too

Whoa, Paige is a big time player too. And their hockey team is pretty damn good.

[deeps6x]

Don't worry yall, with our mid roster and eventual BI injury and we hover around play in terrority, we'll get rewarded with #1 next year....

Wait minute...

Only after we trade Scottie to the Lakers.

For scraps.

[deeps6x]

Loll

Read on Twitter

LOL. Yup.

[YogurtProducer]

Don’t bother, these guys don’t know math.

Math

Thanks for showing that the higher you are the better the player is.

Like 6 being below 7, 8, or 9?

[DelAbbot]

Don't worry yall, with our mid roster and eventual BI injury and we hover around play in terrority, we'll get rewarded with #1 next year....

Wait minute...

We need to first make a sacrificial trade to the LALs. Send them Scottie

[bballsparkin]

Except to me Kon played at that big stage whereas Bryant is a lot of hypothetical.

Kon at 9th I would be so happy I probably start giggling

[AkelaLoneWolf]

Tricky spot really, I don't think Edgecombe or Bailey helps them much right away. 3rd pick is also making over 10m a year, that factors in quite a bit on a team with 3 max contracts.

For sure, good point about the 10m.

It’s more likely sixers offer that pick for Giannis than spurs for the second pick

[VC15Era]

Draft sounds rigged as ****... why aren't they doing the lottery draft live. They should follow how the NHL does it.

[Los_29]

Washington and Utah are the worst teams in the league and guess where they are picking.

They have slightly better picks but are significantly worse and much further away.

Hawks won the lottery last year despite having such low odds. In fact, they might’ve even been in the play-in.

Year after year the results prove that it makes zero sense to just gut and bottom out. With these new lottery odds, teams just don’t get rewarded. OKC had ONE top 5 pick in their most recent tank job and they fielded some horrible teams. And they aren’t where they are because of the draft. But rather Kawhi’s decision to go to LAC.

[deeps6x]

Lol I'm not saying the draft necessary wasn't rigged, but some of you really need to understand how statistics and probability work

If we're going to talk statistics and probabilities, the math says there's a 0.012% chance that the top 3 picks played out the way they did. That's a 1 in 8,319 chance. The NBA lottery has been around for 40 years, so you'd have to repeat the entire history of the NBA lottery 200 times for this to ever happen again.

You have a 2-3x higher chance of getting a perfect SAT score (1 in 3,400).
If you played high school sports, the odds of you going pro or to the Olympics is 1 in 1,400, so 6x more likely than this top 3 lotto.
You're about 10x more likely to have been born with an extra finger or toe (1 in 500-1000).
You're also about 10x more likely to catch a foul ball at a random baseball game you attend.
Getting a hole in one is about a 1 in 12,500 chance.

We're talking about some prettttty low probabilities here.

Yup

[deeps6x]

We'll never know.

Yeah increasing the visibility will makes it much harder to rig.

there's a whole room of people watching the process

The NBA Draft Lottery drawing takes place in a secure, closed room with limited attendance to ensure fairness and confidentiality. Based on available information, the number of people present in the lottery room during the ping-pong ball drawing includes:

Team representatives: One representative from each of the 14 lottery teams, typically a front-office executive or official, is allowed to attend. That’s 14 people.

Media members: According to posts from the NBA’s official PR account on X, 14 media members were permitted to observe the drawings in 2025, and 12 were allowed in 2024.

NBA officials and staff: A small number of league officials, including those overseeing the lottery process, are present. This typically includes a representative from the accounting firm Ernst & Young, which audits the process, and other NBA staff to operate the lottery machine and manage proceedings. Exact numbers for this group are not consistently specified, but it’s estimated to be around 5–10 individuals.

Other observers: Occasionally, a few additional stakeholders, such as security personnel or independent auditors, may be present to ensure transparency, though their numbers are minimal and not always detailed.

Adding these up, the total number of people in the room is approximately 30–40, with the core group consisting of the 14 team representatives, 12–14 media members, and a handful of NBA officials and staff. The exact number can vary slightly year to year based on media access and operational needs, but the NBA keeps the group small to maintain security and integrity.

The process is described as taking place in a “locked, secure room with no way of communicating with the outside world” to prevent leaks before the official televised announcement. The drawing itself is not broadcast live, and only a select few witness the actual ping-pong ball combinations that determine the draft order.

Nice story, but they left out the part that tells us WHY this is necessary?

Just draw the balls like they used to do 60 years ago. For proof it isn't rigged, weigh all of the balls, roll all of the balls, in front of everyone, then toss them all in the spinner, and start drawing them.

[Raptors Realtor]

Detroit is living proof that no one can make definitive statements like this. Both the Jazz and the Wizards have young talent, cap flexibility, a top 6 pick in the draft plus a bunch of draft capital. Doesn’t mean they’ll do anything with it but their situation is not hopeless.

Who said anything about Detroit... We're talking Washington and Utah... My argument is the Raps have much more talent than either team... Are you betting money on both/either Utah or Wiz making the playoffs in the next 2 years?

Detroit had the worst record in the league last season. Now they’re the 6th seed. My point is that you can’t speak in absolutes. The Wizards and Jazz have a bunch of young talent, lots of future draft capital and flexibility. They’re rebuilding and their teams have a couple options

I think you're forgetting the premise of our debate... Which was that you think the Raps should have tried harder to tank like the jazz and wiz, and that those 2 teams must be sleeping better than the Raps because they have the 5-6 picks and the Raps have the 9th... And I said, the Raps are currently in a better position talent wise and 9th pick compared to the wiz and jazz with their current rosters and the 5-6 picks... This was never an argument about what ifs and potential hopes and dreams, it was about your belief that the Raps could have and should have out tanked the jazz and wiz.

[PushDaRock]

Tricky spot really, I don't think Edgecombe or Bailey helps them much right away. 3rd pick is also making over 10m a year, that factors in quite a bit on a team with 3 max contracts.

For sure, good point about the 10m.

It’s more likely sixers offer that pick for Giannis than spurs for the second pick

Only way that's even plausible is if they trade Maxey. Good Luck getting Giannis to agree to go to a team with Embiid who might be damaged goods and George who is untradeable.

[Thaddy]

Yeah increasing the visibility will makes it much harder to rig.

there's a whole room of people watching the process

The NBA Draft Lottery drawing takes place in a secure, closed room with limited attendance to ensure fairness and confidentiality. Based on available information, the number of people present in the lottery room during the ping-pong ball drawing includes:

Team representatives: One representative from each of the 14 lottery teams, typically a front-office executive or official, is allowed to attend. That’s 14 people.

Media members: According to posts from the NBA’s official PR account on X, 14 media members were permitted to observe the drawings in 2025, and 12 were allowed in 2024.

NBA officials and staff: A small number of league officials, including those overseeing the lottery process, are present. This typically includes a representative from the accounting firm Ernst & Young, which audits the process, and other NBA staff to operate the lottery machine and manage proceedings. Exact numbers for this group are not consistently specified, but it’s estimated to be around 5–10 individuals.

Other observers: Occasionally, a few additional stakeholders, such as security personnel or independent auditors, may be present to ensure transparency, though their numbers are minimal and not always detailed.

Adding these up, the total number of people in the room is approximately 30–40, with the core group consisting of the 14 team representatives, 12–14 media members, and a handful of NBA officials and staff. The exact number can vary slightly year to year based on media access and operational needs, but the NBA keeps the group small to maintain security and integrity.

The process is described as taking place in a “locked, secure room with no way of communicating with the outside world” to prevent leaks before the official televised announcement. The drawing itself is not broadcast live, and only a select few witness the actual ping-pong ball combinations that determine the draft order.

Nice story, but they left out the part that tells us WHY this is necessary?

Just draw the balls like they used to do 60 years ago. For proof it isn't rigged, weigh all of the balls, roll all of the balls, in front of everyone, then toss them all in the spinner, and start drawing them.

In the livestreaming era they should be doing this live. If they are confident there's no tampering/rigging/etc then invite guys like Speed and these other streams to the event. The league has a viewership issue right? This could help.

[Tripod]

Reality is there is talent to be picked at 9 if you pick the right guy.

This is where the scouts make their money. Gotta make #9 count.

[MiamiSPX]

Spurs probably the front runner for Giannis now. Castle, #2, #14 is a pretty good starting point, plus all the other draft picks they’ll likely throw in.

More importantly, I could see SA appealing to him. Because again, he is absolutely going to dictate where he goes. All the reporting today by Shams and Marks has also implied that this is generally understood.

[TOStateofMind]

spurs and mavs getting gifted the top two picks

nba scriptwriters can be a bit less obvious

[bballsparkin]

It’s more likely sixers offer that pick for Giannis than spurs for the second pick

As in Harper is too good to trade for an aging star? Ya I thought about that. Might be best to run it back organically. I don't think 76ers are a player for Giannis. What would they trade besides 3rd? Embiid? would Milwaukee even want him?