Question for the "Draft Lottery is Rigged" Crowd

[og15]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

Run the lottery live

Why would live do anything? They show the drawing after the tv drama aspect is completed. It isn't run live because it makes for less (non) dramatic television.

[KrAzY3]

Well this outcome certainly does nothing to dispel the notion...

[shotsquatch]

If the league was rigging the draft, I expect they'd do it in such a way as to avoid triggering a social media firestorm of rigging accusations.

Sloppy work Adam Silver! Nobody would have blinked an eye if you had settled for giving the Mavs the third pick!

[maxpower8888]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

Run the lottery live

Why would live do anything? They show the drawing after the tv drama aspect is completed. It isn't run live because it makes for less (non) dramatic television.

It would definitely help with optics.

[og15]

show them picking it. like lottery balls or even a guy picking pieces of paper out of a bucket. no reason to not do this except because its obviously rigged

Here you go

Watch on YouTube

When Dallas called out, it almost seemed like they were like, wtf?

The guy announcing almost laughs, like, "you gotta be kidding me"

[maxpower8888]

If the league was rigging the draft, I expect they'd do it in such a way as to avoid triggering a social media firestorm of rigging accusations.

Sloppy work Adam Silver! Nobody would have blinked an eye if you had settled for giving the Mavs the third pick!

If you notice $5 missing from your wallet after hanging out with a trustful friend once, having never seen him take it, you probably wouldn't think twice about it. But if you keep losing $5 out of your wallet when hanging out with him, despite never catching him, you're going to start to get suspicious.

[f4p]

This doesn't answer anything I said though lol. So you're saying that any trade/result can be called rigging if it makes sense?

If you have logical reason for explaining something that would happen in a vacuum in 1 of only 10 million scenarios, then it is common sense in following that reasoning. Again, this is the first time I've ever believed that the lottery is rigged but I can no longer ignore the obvious results that would lead any logical person to believe that it is. Again you never get 87% of people to believe something is rigged without clear and logical evidence that points to it. After all conspiracy theorists are again and again ignored for good reason by the majority. Point is i feel like I can no longer ignore it if the results keep slapping me in the face.

1 in 10 million scenarios? I just pressed the Tankathon sim button ONCE and guess who got the first pick? The Mavs . Then Charlotte.

Next time, Raptors moved up 6 and got 1st, Kings moved up 11 and got 2nd, 3rd spin was more "normal", 4th spin, Nets got first, Rockets moved up 7, Spurs moved up 6..

It takes just one drawing to get a wonky result. These aren't aggregates. People are getting what they wanted by flattening the odds of tanking because people hated bad teams being bad. 14% odds versus 2% odds isn't some crazy amount.

Hell, Utah had a 48% chance to get the 5th spot, barely less than their 1-4 spots combined.

So I don't really think the NBA would rig things and I don't think the moon landing was fake, but for once conspriacy theorists said what the unlikely thing was before it happened and then it happened. The problem with most conspriacy theories (well, one problem ), is that they tend to explain unlikely things after they happened, and it is generally not that difficult to come up with crazy explanations for normal, if unlikely, things. Because, unlikely things have to eventually happen.

But this time, the crazy initiating event ( the trade) produced a 1.8% conspiracy prediction. That was talked about forever. And then the one outcome that would validate the conspiracy actually happened. It definitely feels different.

[og15]

Run the lottery live

Why would live do anything? They show the drawing after the tv drama aspect is completed. It isn't run live because it makes for less (non) dramatic television.

It would definitely help with optics.

Why though? We can see the drawing. The reason they don't do it live is because it is anti-climactic, if you do it live, the first pick is shown first.

That's why it is recorded ahead of time, then the results revealed later, but the optics is the same for anyone who cares to check out the recording, the results don't change from what the recording shows.

I can't see what seeing that same video live would change for any reasonable person. I mean, what's the argument, they can rig the drawing when they are recording, but can't do it live? I don't understand the logic there.

[Mrakar]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

I wouldnt say the draft is necessarily "rigged".

HOWEVER, Dallas sits at a 1.3% chance to win the #1 pick.

After the whole Doncic debacle, and their GM choosing specifically LA as the team to send him, I would 100% believe it was rigged should they magically land Cooper Flagg.

This is similar to New Orleans trading away Anthony Davis and then them winning the Zion Williamson lottery with 6% chance.

The better question is how much happenstance has to take place for non-believers to buy into the idea that it is absolutely rigged.

Or getting AD after getting **** in CP3 trade. Cleveland getting 2 first rounders after Lebron left. I was also saying all the time that Wemby will land with the Spurs, it just seemd like a logical thing to happen with Spurs being bad and international conection with Parker/Diaw,...

The next one will not be rigget bcs it will be too obvious, but some like the ones i mentioned or Ewing thing is just too obvious. We need a next storyline and then it will happen.

This guy had it all along. Question for the "Draft lottery is not rigged" crowd? You still believe that its not rigged?

[levon]

That lookup board is digital. Do the reps have a printed copy of the lookup table? If not this is the dumbest magic trick in the world.

[Heat3]

Anything is possible in an era where the NBA is in partnership with sports betting outfits

[shotsquatch]

If the league was rigging the draft, I expect they'd do it in such a way as to avoid triggering a social media firestorm of rigging accusations.

Sloppy work Adam Silver! Nobody would have blinked an eye if you had settled for giving the Mavs the third pick!

If you notice $5 missing from your wallet after hanging out with a trustful friend once, having never seen him take it, you probably wouldn't think twice about it. But if you keep losing $5 out of your wallet when hanging out with him, despite never catching him, you're going to start to get suspicious.

But that's the thing: I don't keep losing $5 every time we hang out. I've hung out with him 40 times and only found $5 missing once or twice, and each time I have perfectly reasonable explanations for where the money went that don't involve him stealing from me.

[Warspite]

Why did the biggest market in the NBA suck for 2 decades? Can any of the conspiracy theorists answer that one?

Do you believe multi billion dollar businesses arent above bending the rules to get better outcomes for their bottom line?

That doesn't answer his question. If the NBA fixes things, why did they allow the Knicks to be the NBA's worst team for twenty years.

NYC has two team and both rank in the bottom 5 in RS W%. Another large city (DC) is in the bottom 5.

Code: Select all

Rk    From    To        Team    Lg    W    L    W/L%
1   2000-01   2019-20   NYK   NBA   643   965   .400
2   2000-01   2019-20   CHO   NBA   598   845   .414
3   2000-01   2019-20   MIN   NBA   668   938   .416
4   2000-01   2019-20   WAS   NBA   686   928   .425
5   2000-01   2019-20   BRK   NBA   709   905   .439

The Knicks played the fewest playoff games over this span.

Code: Select all

Rk    From    To       Team    Lg    G    W    L    W/L%
1   2000-01   2012-13   NYK   NBA   30    9   21   .300
2   2000-01   2015-16   CHO   NBA   34   13   21   .382
3   2000-01   2017-18   MIN   NBA   36   14   22   .389
4   2002-03   2017-18   NOP   NBA   49   20   29   .408
5   2004-05   2017-18   WAS   NBA   66   29   37   .439

Do you believe multi billion dollar businesses arent above bending the rules to get better outcomes for their bottom line?

As to your question,
1. I do think it is possible for a company to bend the rules to make $ but the NBA is a cartel of 30 different companies. You have to believe that most members of the cartel are happy screwing themselves over.
2. If there is a conspiracy, it is amazing it has never leaked. The White House couldn't keep Watergate a secret from the Washington Post but 30 separate companies can engage in a decade long conspiracy without reporters finding out hits me as very unlikely.

And the NBA data just isn't supportive of a conspiracy. Outside the Lakers decades long success, there really isn't much coorelation between market size and success.

The Lakers is very easy to explain. Players do want to play in Los Angeles. That is a real competitive advantage. It is also unfixable without utterly breaking the players union. Unlike the Knicks the Lakers have generally had good management, for decades they had Jerry West who was one of the best GMs in history. Then Lebron decided he wanted to go to LA in 2019 saving the franchise after a half decade a terrible basketball.

Good management and players wanting to play in LA seems much more likely than a shadowy group of owners deciding to make the Lakers perpetual contenders.

What does it matter if the Knicks/nets are bad? The tickets are still all sold and fans still watch. Its the basketball version of the Cubs. Besides the whole reason MSG is considered the "Mecca" is because the Globe Trotters, Lakers, Celtics, 76ers, Pistons, Hawks and St Johns all played home games at MSG. People come to see who the Knicks are playing. They are historically the Washington Generals of the NBA. So if you want to see great players have great games you need them to be in MSG playing vs bad Knick teams. Of course, the other argument is that the Knicks are so bad that not even Stern help enough to help them.

[maxpower8888]

If the league was rigging the draft, I expect they'd do it in such a way as to avoid triggering a social media firestorm of rigging accusations.

Sloppy work Adam Silver! Nobody would have blinked an eye if you had settled for giving the Mavs the third pick!

If you notice $5 missing from your wallet after hanging out with a trustful friend once, having never seen him take it, you probably wouldn't think twice about it. But if you keep losing $5 out of your wallet when hanging out with him, despite never catching him, you're going to start to get suspicious.

But that's the thing: I don't keep losing $5 every time we hang out. I've hung out with him 40 times and only found $5 missing once or twice, and each time I have perfectly reasonable explanations for where the money went that don't involve him stealing from me.

Once or twice? How about five or six times? And how about if the first 20 to 25 times you guys hung out, no monet went missing, but you've started noticing your money missing in the last 15 to 20 times hanging out? And it just happened to go missing on those days he could use a bit of extra cash?

[shotsquatch]

That lookup board is digital. Do the reps have a printed copy of the lookup table? If not this is the dumbest magic trick in the world.

Each team representative in the lottery room gets a printed copy of the full combination lookup table that shows exactly which 4-number combinations are assigned to which teams. An independent auditing firm (Ernst & Young) also has copies.

Go read an article about how the lottery process works. If you still feel suspicious after learning the details, then you may get a kick out of learning about the extremely suspect circumstances surrounding the 1969 moon landing (how does a flag wave with no wind!?).

[Sixers in 4]

It's funny because just looking at your post, I can tell your politics. What about if I told you that Walmart had the opportunity to manipulate prices so it would help their bottom line in the same way that the NBA would benefit from manipulating NBA drafts? How would you respond? Would you have unquestioning faith in the fairness of their pricing? Of course not

Yeah, you're right, I live in reality - that's my politics feel free to refute any of the criticism of conspiratal points I made in my post.

Not sure how a Walmart example of price manipulation would even work as a 1:1 comparison but I'd like to see it fleshed out. The NBA is making bank from TV deals and sports betting on top of so many other things that you can legitimately say that them helping out any team would help their bottom line by either getting more out of floundering teams/markets and reviving them versus keeping a team like Dallas relevant.

I mean, I could refute every one, but it would derail the thread. I'll just say that the only reason the flat earth theory is even a conspiracy theory today is because someone thought the earth was spherical and decided to challenge the official narrative of the time. Blindly following an official narrative doesn't make you wise and the rest of the world idiots it makes you no different than the flat earthers of the pre-17th century.

Returning to the NBA draft. The NBA has a strong financial incentive to manipulate NBA drafts in order to help struggling NBA teams or big markets. What you're really asking is for the other board members to blindly trust the NBA to act contrary to their own self-interest for the sake of justice, fairness, or whatever. I'm afraid I don't have the same kind of faith in billion-dollar corporations as you do. The NBA had the choice to create a system where they were totally excluded from the process and it was run by a third party, but they chose not to. They had a choice to create a system that wouldn't be easy to manipulate like the lottery but chose not to do so.

As long as the opportunity and profit motive exists there is going to be an open question of whether the NBA is rigging drafts.

[shotsquatch]

If you notice $5 missing from your wallet after hanging out with a trustful friend once, having never seen him take it, you probably wouldn't think twice about it. But if you keep losing $5 out of your wallet when hanging out with him, despite never catching him, you're going to start to get suspicious.

But that's the thing: I don't keep losing $5 every time we hang out. I've hung out with him 40 times and only found $5 missing once or twice, and each time I have perfectly reasonable explanations for where the money went that don't involve him stealing from me.

Once or twice? How about five or six times? And how about if the first 20 to 25 times you guys hung out, no monet went missing, but you've started noticing your money missing in the last 15 to 20 times hanging out? And it just happened to go missing on those days he could use a bit of extra cash?

A team with ~1% lottery odds has won the first pick six times NBA history?

Also, why do the lottery conspiracy posters have so many spelling and grammar errors in their posts? Coincidence?

[shotsquatch]

They had a choice to create a system that wouldn't be easy to manipulate like the lottery but chose not to do so.

Please read about how the draft lottery works, and then come back and explain how the **** they would be able to rig the result.

[og15]

That lookup board is digital. Do the reps have a printed copy of the lookup table? If not this is the dumbest magic trick in the world.

As mentioned in the other thread, teams are given a packet with their combinations, that is what the papers they are rifling through are. It would definitely be a terrible, "just trust us" if they didn't, of course no one would agree to that.

[Effigy]

If the league was rigging the draft, I expect they'd do it in such a way as to avoid triggering a social media firestorm of rigging accusations.

Sloppy work Adam Silver! Nobody would have blinked an eye if you had settled for giving the Mavs the third pick!

They agreed to this months ago when the Luka trade was made. They knew they’d catch hell, maybe not quite this much, but they’d already made the deal. However, they also knew tons of people would believe whatever they were told and defend them , which is exactly how it’s playing out.