2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

I know nothing

[mjkvol]

Can anyone explain to me why Rutgers sucked this year? Didn’t watch any college ball this year so seeing two top 5 picks but not even an NCAA tournament appearance is odd.

This is one of my primary issues with both Bailey and Harper, really. For the team to be that bad - not even sneak into the NCAA's - with two potential top 5 NBA picks is borderline unfathomable. Top picks on losing teams has always been a major red flag for me, and we've seen (and lived through) too many examples to just brush it aside.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Can anyone explain to me why Rutgers sucked this year? Didn’t watch any college ball this year so seeing two top 5 picks but not even an NCAA tournament appearance is odd.

This is one of my primary issues with both Bailey and Harper, really. For the team to be that bad - not even sneak into the NCAA's - with two potential top 5 NBA picks is borderline unfathomable. Top picks on losing teams has always been a major red flag for me, and we've seen (and lived through) too many examples to just brush it aside.

That's a good point. I remember Kansa State some years ago. The hype around Bill Walker and Michael Beasley. They were at least a tournament team.

[youngcrev]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

so they're giving him credit for getting ridiculously lucky in the draft? Or covertly hinting that the NBA rigs the lottery for teams that trade stars to a destination of their liking?

[Negrodamus]

https://basketball.realgm.com/national/countries/79/Bahamas/stats

Edgecombe was really good playing with NBA players

[Negrodamus]

I think Tre's ultimate value comes down to him being a nuclear shooter but I just don't see how you can measure him up against Knueppel who's also a nuclear shooter but flashed a curious offensive ceiling down the stretch at Duke when his role expanded.

He started getting to the rim at will, finished at a high percentage -- (73% rim + 90% long-two makes unassisted)

Displayed ++ feel (1.8 A:TO) and even saw his OREB% and STL rate take an impressive leap.

I don't think Kon is a plus athlete, but he still clears guys like Tre / Kasparas / McNeeley

What does this have to do with sharing the floor with Flagg and Maluach? Two great play finishers on offense and great defenders who's weak side rotations neutralize opponents when they beat Knueppel off the dribble.

Johnson played with no one with any gravity or rim protection last year AND with terrible coaching. Swap Johnson and Knueppel on the Duke and Texas teams and what would the comparison look like?

I am intrigued by your eval of Knueppel though. If the Spurs feel similarly to you would they even consider taking him at 2? They have the luxury to sacrifice ceiling for Wemby fit.

I don't want to keep reposting the initial breakdown on Knueppel that I did, so apologies to anyone that's seeing it again----

Essentially KK's season was split up into two halves, the first part of the season where he was your average floor spacer and connector on offense. As the season progressed however, it got to a point where his influence on the game expanded until he was not only a go-to option but one of the very best drivers of offense in the entire conference in all facets.

If you split Kon's season into halves it paints an extremely interesting picture.

from 11/4 - 2/15 (25G) Knueppel operated primarily as a spacer/shooter with a 7.5 BPM, 125 ORTG, 60% TS, 14% AST, 25.2 FTr and a ridiculous 60.3 3PR.

In this span Kon was taking 2.7 attempts per game at the rim, and finishing at just 57.4%.

His profile up to this point was still late lotto level as a high volume 3P shooter (12.0 3P/100) and great connectivity (2.1 A:TO) but his offensive game was not well rounded and he had obvious limitations athletically and on defense (3.2 OR%, 2-4 dunks, 0.6 BLK%, 1.7 STL%).

From 2/16 - 4/15 Kon was a completely different player on offense with a 12.8 BPM, 139 ORTG, 70.9% TS, 17% AST, 49.3 FTr.

Kon was otherworldly efficient shooting 70% at the rim, 47.5% from three, and 94% from the free-throw line. 17/4.5/3.3 for PRA fans.

Kon’s offensive game was fleshed out in this span.His 3 point attempt rate dropped to 44.9 and his FT and rim volume jumped significantly to 3.8 ATT/G (+1.1) and 4.7 FTA/G (+2.3) while also jumping in efficiency (+13% at the rim, +5.5% FT)

During this span his OREB% jumped 6.1 (+2.9) and so did his STL% to 2.5 (+0.8).

We know Kon is a nuclear shooter (40.6% 3P, 91.4 FT%) with ++ feel (1.8 A:TO) and with a curious offensive ceiling, (73% rim + 90% long-two makes unassisted).

Athletic concerns might hinder him from significantly scaling up in the NBA but I believe he's capable of being a #2 or an elite #3 for a great team.

I think it's fair to question whether he was a beneficiary or benefactor of his situation, especially compared to someone like Tre but I put a lot of stock in his ability to scale up with more touches, and to scale down around stars, and he has a track record of dominating EYBL as an alpha scorer.

The fit in SA alongside Wembanyama/Fox/Castle/Vassell is PERFECT, they really should be considering it.

This is compelling to me. I was completely on board with Tatum after he supplanted juniors Kennard and Grayson as the alpha scorer during his freshman year and at a high level. I certainly have questions about Kon's ability to stay with NBA athletes on defense, but his ability on offense was truly insane.

[Iscull]

if they don't trade for Giannis, there is a chance the Spurs go giant ball with Maluach.

I'd rather have Queen. Maluach is not a good basketball player

[Iscull]

(Incoming propaganda)

Watch on YouTube

;t=10764s

Now compare the shot diet you saw of Ace to that of Queen. First two minutes, he's heading down hill, going to the rim with authority. Queen isn't some purely in the post player, he's a driver. How is Ace so remarkably soft when driving? I couldn't even fathom taking Ace over Queen.

Queen is an absolute dog and shows up in big games as well. While his floor isn't as high as Cooper, it might be the 2nd highest in the draft.

Add NBA Diet / Workout regimen, I think he gets a lot better by year 2/3.

[Negrodamus]

Lets go back to all the way to 2011 (when they started doing BPM) and count how many of the top ten picks (much less top 5 or top 3) have a <5 BPM:

Cody Williams (#10 2024)
Ziaire Williams (#10 2021)
Cam Reddish (#10 2019)
Jaylen Brown (#3 2016)
Marquese Chriss (#8 2016)
Austin Rivers (#10 2012)


Notable:
Kevin Knox (5.1 BPM, #9 2018)
Brandon Knight (5.5, #8 2011)

Almost 15 years of data and if you're best argument for Ace Bailey is the anomaly who is Jaylen Brown, then you have no argument. I'm reading posts on Reddit that say "don't be dumb, take the BPA, take Ace". How is that possible when the most unbelievably risky and volatile top 5 pick is Ace Bailey?

[Stanford]

Lets go back to all the way to 2011 (when they started doing BPM) and count how many of the top ten picks (much less top 5 or top 3) have a <5 BPM:

Cody Williams (#10 2024)
Ziaire Williams (#10 2021)
Cam Reddish (#10 2019)
Jaylen Brown (#3 2016)
Marquese Chriss (#8 2016)
Austin Rivers (#10 2012)


Notable:
Kevin Knox (5.1 BPM, #9 2018)
Brandon Knight (5.5, #8 2011)

Almost 15 years of data and if you're best argument for Ace Bailey is the anomaly who is Jaylen Brown, then you have no argument. I'm reading posts on Reddit that say "don't be dumb, take the BPA, take Ace". How is that possible when the most unbelievably risky and volatile top 5 pick is Ace Bailey?

Upping it to <6BPM on Tankathon (I mean, this is an arbitrary stat anyway) you get Anthony Edwards and Darius Garland. I get your point though.

[Negrodamus]

Lets go back to all the way to 2011 (when they started doing BPM) and count how many of the top ten picks (much less top 5 or top 3) have a <5 BPM:

Cody Williams (#10 2024)
Ziaire Williams (#10 2021)
Cam Reddish (#10 2019)
Jaylen Brown (#3 2016)
Marquese Chriss (#8 2016)
Austin Rivers (#10 2012)


Notable:
Kevin Knox (5.1 BPM, #9 2018)
Brandon Knight (5.5, #8 2011)

Almost 15 years of data and if you're best argument for Ace Bailey is the anomaly who is Jaylen Brown, then you have no argument. I'm reading posts on Reddit that say "don't be dumb, take the BPA, take Ace". How is that possible when the most unbelievably risky and volatile top 5 pick is Ace Bailey?

Upping it to <6BPM on Tankathon (I mean, this is an arbitrary stat anyway) you get Anthony Edwards and Darius Garland. I get your point though.

TBF, Garland played 5 games at Vanderbilt.

I know it gets a bad rap, but I do think BPM is a good indicator stat, particularly mixed with other statistics. I don't really consider it once a player is above 6 BPM, but it definitely has been good for disqualifying players for the most part (particularly in the top 10). Things become more damning for Ace when considering his FTr and lack of assist generation.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

I want to like Bailey, but the failure rate is high with him. I see injury prone, I see disappearing acts in the playoffs, I see turnover prone. I also see silky smooth shot making, driving, and an ability to score off the dribble. One minute he looks like Tracy McGrady, the next he's Perry Jones 2.0.

With Edgecombe I see a high flying athlete and a basketball player second. I see a competitive player who will be a role player on. Good team and could eventually turn into an alpha. Measurable, size, defensive ability, and based off of what Morey said we're looking for he's probably the pick. He also held his own with a lot of current NBA players. Might actually be better suited for the NBA as some players are. Maybe the same can be said about Bailey?

With Trey Johnson, I see a walking bucket. Dale Ellis comes to mind. I like him more than I like Edgecombe if offense is what you're after.

Queen...He's slept on because he gives off the Zach Randolph/Al Jefferson vibes. Thing is, those weren't exactly bad NBA players. ZBo especially played in some big playoff games over the course of his career. I doubt we take Queen at three but you never know. We have rebounding issues, we've also never been able to pair Embiid with a legitimate power forward. I think Queen is a bona fide scorer at the next level if he never improves anywhere else. If he decides to take it seriously in the NBA, then he has the potential to be a great power forward in the league. I like Queen more than most.

Kon-I wouldn't be surprised at all if he ends up being the pick. We're at three and the only locks are the top 2 in the draft. After that, teams like us are really going to have to do their homework on players.

[Iscull]

Lets go back to all the way to 2011 (when they started doing BPM) and count how many of the top ten picks (much less top 5 or top 3) have a <5 BPM:

Cody Williams (#10 2024)
Ziaire Williams (#10 2021)
Cam Reddish (#10 2019)
Jaylen Brown (#3 2016)
Marquese Chriss (#8 2016)
Austin Rivers (#10 2012)


Notable:
Kevin Knox (5.1 BPM, #9 2018)
Brandon Knight (5.5, #8 2011)

Almost 15 years of data and if you're best argument for Ace Bailey is the anomaly who is Jaylen Brown, then you have no argument. I'm reading posts on Reddit that say "don't be dumb, take the BPA, take Ace". How is that possible when the most unbelievably risky and volatile top 5 pick is Ace Bailey?

Of those guys, how many had sub 70% FT shooting?

The problem with drafting high is that usually only one guy is truly worth taking. The rest could go anywhere from 2nd to 15th overall. Then teams (Who are often bad) take big swings at the risky high ceiling / low floors. This happens in the NFL all the time and is why the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, etc. stay so consistant. They sit and let the good players with high floors fall to them.

If we know DQ is going to drop, honestly I'd trade back. His ball handling, 77% FT on 6.1 per game, and athleticism indicate he has potential to be way more than just a post player.

For those that think he's Jah 2.0 - Jah was 51% FT.

A little trivia comparison for those interested:

DQ Stats:
6'10" and 240 pounds
30.4 MPG, 52.6% on 11.1 shots, 77% FT's at 6.1 per Game, 16.5 PPG, 8 Rebounds, 1.9 Assists, 1.1 Blocks

Current NBA Star College Stats:
6'10" and 250 pounds
33 MPG, 47.8% on 13.2 shots, 73% FT on 4.8 shots per Game, 17.2 PPG, 7.8 Rebounds, 3.2 Assists, 0.9 Blocks

Spoiler:

The NBA Star is Paolo Banchero. I think they have super similar styles, although Queen needs to improve his jump shot a bit.

[Negrodamus]

I think Edgecombe's offense, particularly his creation, is being sorely underrated the more I watch him. They often handed him the ball to go get a basket. I believe his off the dribble shooting was rough, which I concede is a red flag; however, he finishes at the basket with either hand quite well and gets teammates involved.

A blind spot in Edgecombe's game that is a red flag is his off ball defense, particularly his awareness. He is constantly caught ball watching and gets killed on backdoor cuts. POA defense looks pretty good. I think he has more of a reputation for elite defense than actually being a top flight defender. That said, I think his instincts for disruption, his athleticism, and his insanely high motor give easy upside to becoming an elite defender at the next level.

[sodmoraes]

Edgecombe seems to me like a Zhaire Smith pick. We passed on better players because of health risks( MPJ) and wtf reasons( Shai and Mikal Bridges) because we wanted to be "cute" with the pick, and thought he could be a Kawhi Leonard lite(even without his health freak problem he was a limited player). If we dont pick Bailey we should trade down then, and get Tre or maybe Queen. Dont want nothing of Kon trex arms Knuepel. He screams a role player to me: just a shooter with limited ceiling, who cant match nba athleticism....

[Stanford]

Read on Twitter

There's just no way this individual isn't brand new to the sport of basketball. A relative of his saw him hit a growth spurt during the 2020 lockdown and ordered him his first basketball off Amazon.

This is an industry plant hiding in plain sight.

This is insane.

[Negrodamus]

Lets go back to all the way to 2011 (when they started doing BPM) and count how many of the top ten picks (much less top 5 or top 3) have a <5 BPM:

Cody Williams (#10 2024)
Ziaire Williams (#10 2021)
Cam Reddish (#10 2019)
Jaylen Brown (#3 2016)
Marquese Chriss (#8 2016)
Austin Rivers (#10 2012)


Notable:
Kevin Knox (5.1 BPM, #9 2018)
Brandon Knight (5.5, #8 2011)

Almost 15 years of data and if you're best argument for Ace Bailey is the anomaly who is Jaylen Brown, then you have no argument. I'm reading posts on Reddit that say "don't be dumb, take the BPA, take Ace". How is that possible when the most unbelievably risky and volatile top 5 pick is Ace Bailey?

Of those guys, how many had sub 70% FT shooting?

The problem with drafting high is that usually only one guy is truly worth taking. The rest could go anywhere from 2nd to 15th overall. Then teams (Who are often bad) take big swings at the risky high ceiling / low floors. This happens in the NFL all the time and is why the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, etc. stay so consistant. They sit and let the good players with high floors fall to them.

If we know DQ is going to drop, honestly I'd trade back. His ball handling, 77% FT on 6.1 per game, and athleticism indicate he has potential to be way more than just a post player.


For those that think he's Jah 2.0 - Jah was 51% FT.

A little trivia comparison for those interested:

DQ Stats:
6'10" and 240 pounds
30.4 MPG, 52.6% on 11.1 shots, 77% FT's at 6.1 per Game, 16.5 PPG, 8 Rebounds, 1.9 Assists, 1.1 Blocks

Current NBA Star College Stats:
6'10" and 250 pounds
33 MPG, 47.8% on 13.2 shots, 73% FT on 4.8 shots per Game, 17.2 PPG, 7.8 Rebounds, 3.2 Assists, 0.9 Blocks

Spoiler:

The NBA Star is Paolo Banchero. I think they have super similar styles, although Queen needs to improve his jump shot a bit.

Watch on YouTube

Think we can match him up with Embiid, lol? He has a season's worth of tape showing him play with a C (Julian Reese) where he's dropping dimes into the post for easy buckets. Think Maxey, McCain, PG, Edwards, Grimes, etc would like to play with him? Ridiculous at getting the ball at the FT line and hitting wide open shooters for 3.

And, of course, he gets buckets by going to the basket with his elite-for-his-size handle and bullying his way to the rim. I'd love to see the dunk stats for the top 10 players this year because he has to be near the top. He also has a **** -talking swag to him.

He's my "don't overthink it, just take him at 3" guy and I might be alone on this.

[Stanford]

Can Kon Knueppel throw an entry pass?

[Mik317]

Pretty sure I did not fully sleep last night. My brain was overclocking and **** lol.

Again I honestly don't care who we take at 3....as long as we don't get cute and trade out of the top 10 or out completely. Don't have a great history of that imo. Regardless of my feelings on each prospect, a top 10 pick for this franchise at this stage is a gift and not one we can afford to get cute with as we owe future picks. This is like almost a get out of jail free card if they play it right. Use your insane scouting brains, aka the only thing that has worked for us recently, and find THE GUY and keep it pushing imo.

I love Joel Hans Embiid...but the most likely outcome is that he is cooked. The time for building with his needs in mind is over. LUCKILY his needs as a player are needs most teams need too but any talk of windows and contending need to go away. Whoever we take this draft will not immediately help us win it all next year or even the year after. Its all about righting the ship and becoming a team that doesn't bottom out if one guy can't play Jesus . As stated above anything Jo gives us from this point forward is extra and a nice treat. PG despite it all will be useful as well as even thought he shot like me, prior to the writing on the wall being there he still was a good player...not max good but good. I don't give a **** about Josh Harris' pockets. Morey has it right finally...the idea is to get younger and more athletic...which will mean growing pains and some rough stretches (and probably costs Nurse his job lol...). But that is the way. IDC that Boston may be out of it, the Knicks are also on a tightrope with injuries, the Cavs are fraudulent and suddenly the East is wide open dooooe...nah **** that. Take your goddam time for once and let it build.

Now as for the draft itself. Again my current choice at 3 is VJ. He has elite traits. Not just jumping wise but his first step is elite...that is one of those things you don't really think about but yeah. At Baylor, he also was put in a box a bit and had terrible spacing so there is some upside. I am scared as **** about Ace but my bitch ass would buy in the moment he hits a tough hesi pull up jimbo (lol). The thing is that most of these guys aren't ready for prime time...which makes our situation actually a blessing as they won't get thrown to the sharks and can learn from actual good players rather than fellow rookies, scrubs, and washed has beens (although our said good players may be in this category sadly lol). Maxey is a nutso worker and so is McCain; and despite his rep I think Jo is also a guy who helps out the youth better than advertised. Someone also brought this up but the youth **** love Paul George and his game and again despite his lackadasical podcasting ass ; dude worked hard to get to where he got from Fresno state...so yeah guys may need some work but this isn't the worst spot to get that. So yeah I am so energized for the first time in like forever.

inb4 Darryl's old roladex of former rockets start talking to him like the Green Goblin mask

[Jailblazers7]

For all the “we gotta trade down” folks, I think it will be very interesting to see what happens to Bailey’s draft stock during the pre-draft process. I could easily see him falling down big boards leaving us without an obvious trade partner.