NBA DRAFT LOTTERY GT, 12 MAY 2025, 6 PM CT, CHICAGO, ESPN

[dougthonus]

Watch Nico surprise us all and go Harper.

Seriously though, F the lottery. What a piss system.

Lebron to Cavs.
Rose to Bulls (yay, but unreal).

NOP loses CP3. Wins #1 AD with 8.8%.
NOP loses AD. Wins #1 Zion with 6%.

Wemby to Spurs (French connection).

Cavs won #1 after Lebron left (a bunch of them).

Even Lonzo to Lakers felt too fitting.

Getting tired of these convenient coincidences.

These aren't convenient coincidences. They are things people make up to backfill their narrative.

Cleveland, New Orleans, San Antonio are absolute crap markets. If the NBA was going to rig something, they'd friggen have rigged LeBron to the Bulls or Knicks not the Cavs. You think they could sell home town LeBron better than putting the best player on Earth in New York or Chicago? Same with all these other "let's help out a tiny team" narrative.

Virtually ever super-duper-star prospect went to a small market. The closest thing to an exception is Rose to Chicago, but he wasn't a super duper star prospect like LeBron or Wemby.

No one would rig things to minimize the amount of money they'd make.

[dougthonus]

As much as I wished It was random and things were fair... I ask one simple question.. why is the selection not televised? In today's climate where literally every thing is on screen why is it the nba hids this process .

Because you pick the #1 team first and they couldn't count down then.

Why do you think televising it would allow you to tell it's not rigged? The teams all get to watch the draft live with representation, it's held by a 3rd party firm, and it's audited by a different 3rd party.

[Ice Man]

To follow up Doug's point, in the year that the Pelicans won Zion with 6% odds, the Knicks had a 14% chance and the Bulls 12.5%. Why on earth would a league that rigs the lottery send the most-hyped draft pick in 15 years -- since LeBron -- to New Orleans rather than to New York or Chicago?

You can create any story by ignoring inconvenient data points, while using the data points that fit the narrative.

[Michael Jackson]

If Giddey doesnt hit the half court shot….the 11 slot is ours….

That was a great win though, and he's part of the future.
A meaningless W was like the Blazers in one of the last games of the year. 5 point win and it was all Vucevic with 31 points. Just no point to it, he's not a young player we're developing. That was a Kildraftpick W.

I think that was posted originally about the NBA lakers conspiracy, ie Dallas bowed down to LA and were rewarded and the Bulls defied the gods of the NBA and didn’t kiss the ring of LA so no soup for them!

[sco]

I'm just glad we didn't get 13 or 14. Honestly, after #2, it's a pretty flat curve after that through #12. A bunch of guys measured out an inch or 2 shorter than hyped. The "with shoes" thing has been gone for years, so let's not confuse things. Ace isn't close to 6'10. Jace needs to stand on his tippy toes to use a urinal. Queen is more like a princess. At this point I expect that we draft one of the good defending SF's or PF's.

I still think there will be talent in the 20's. Go get me one of those BKN picks for Ayo and a couple 2nds.

[Michael Jackson]

Read on Twitter

What the hell is akekekeing?

I have no idea. I just hope it is some diss to AK.

[Michael Jackson]

I don't know why we do this to ourselves, it's called the lottery for a reason.

I think I've been around the block way too many times to think that the lottery is rigged, or that if we had just lost a game or two, and then placed at the 11 spot, we would have still managed to get the number 1. I just refuse to believe that you change one thing, and the rest plays out exactly how it did.

That said, I think it's good for the Mavs. They are the biggest market team, but they are one of the biggest, and though I'm not happy for them exactly, I'm totally okay with them getting the number one pick and hopefully putting that Luka trade behind them. Hornets are going to forever suck, the Sixers don't deserve Flagg, and it would have been unfair to have Flagg team up with Wemby, so Mavs was the best result out of the 4 teams, at least in my eyes.

Good on them! Now lets see what transpires this off season, I'm hoping for the best, but until I'm proven otherwise, I just don't see our front office having the foresight or balls to make significant changes to the roster.

The best odds at getting the #1 are 14%… which isn’t good. 86% likely not to get it. What doth be crazy is dropping completely out of the top 4 while tanking hard. Some outcomes look specifically rigged (Atlanta did not for instance) but it is absolutely possible that it is but still overall unlikely. Regardless the system is set in place to discourage tanking and the system itself rigged or not is proving that trying to lose doesn’t give you the top pick. 14% is not a winning number.

[Hold That]

No one would rig things to minimize the amount of money they'd make.

Multiple articles have came out that the Mavs were set to lose billions of dollars due to the Luka trade.


The new ownership wants to relocate the team to Vegas as well.

I live in Dallas and many fans here believed they wanted to tank the team and bring down ticket sales to have a reason to ship the team to Vegas. Obviously the NBA likely wouldn’t do that. However the NBA has shown they care about the fans of markets who might’ve suffered something catastrophic.

Cooper will offset the bleeding of the rate of canceled season tickets and merch.

I too believe this was rigged to save the Dallas market.

[dougthonus]

The best odds at getting the #1 are 14%… which isn’t good. 86% likely not to get it. What doth be crazy is dropping completely out of the top 4 while tanking hard. Some outcomes look specifically rigged (Atlanta did not for instance) but it is absolutely possible that it is but still overall unlikely. Regardless the system is set in place to discourage tanking and the system itself rigged or not is proving that trying to lose doesn’t give you the top pick. 14% is not a winning number.

Since they moved away from the envelopes, the only thing that has looked rigged in the past 30 or whatever number of years is Rose to the Bulls. Everything else is narrative that starts with the assumption that it is rigged then tries to come up with the best rationale to call it rigged. That rationale of course never involves maximizing profits or league benefit, but is always something dumb like we want LeBron in his home town despite that having absolutely 0 value to the league, like the NBA probably would have made a billion dollars more if he landed in New York or Chicago, but they rigged him to be in Cleveland. Yeah. Right.

[yifsuibfe1]

Just read The Athletic's recap from inside the drawing room and if the last number drawn was 8, the Bulls would have won the lottery, but it was 7 which meant Dallas.

[Michael Jackson]

The best odds at getting the #1 are 14%… which isn’t good. 86% likely not to get it. What doth be crazy is dropping completely out of the top 4 while tanking hard. Some outcomes look specifically rigged (Atlanta did not for instance) but it is absolutely possible that it is but still overall unlikely. Regardless the system is set in place to discourage tanking and the system itself rigged or not is proving that trying to lose doesn’t give you the top pick. 14% is not a winning number.

Since they moved away from the envelopes, the only thing that has looked rigged in the past 30 or whatever number of years is Rose to the Bulls. Everything else is narrative that starts with the assumption that it is rigged then tries to come up with the best rationale to call it rigged. That rationale of course never involves maximizing profits or league benefit, but is always something dumb like we want LeBron in his home town despite that having absolutely 0 value to the league, like the NBA probably would have made a billion dollars more if he landed in New York or Chicago, but they rigged him to be in Cleveland. Yeah. Right.

I am not sure that the theories are all dumb they have some merit. This years does to the extent that it is if the whole Luka trade is rigged than this was part of it. Realistic answer is Nico and Pelinka are friends, the owner wanted Luka gone and the lottery is a lottery. The current theory is once again supported by the AD trade being a similar thing. The CP3 one is a stretch but hey why not. In that case all 3 involve AD!!!!

Math just simply supports that tanking doesn't work. BEST CASE scenario is 86% chance of failure.

[WindyCityBorn]

I didn’t really care the lottery, but watching the team we lost a coin flip get the #1 has turned me into a doomer. I think I’m taking a break from the Bulls this offseason. Tired of closely following a loser.

[othawhitemeat]

The best odds at getting the #1 are 14%… which isn’t good. 86% likely not to get it. What doth be crazy is dropping completely out of the top 4 while tanking hard. Some outcomes look specifically rigged (Atlanta did not for instance) but it is absolutely possible that it is but still overall unlikely. Regardless the system is set in place to discourage tanking and the system itself rigged or not is proving that trying to lose doesn’t give you the top pick. 14% is not a winning number.

Since they moved away from the envelopes, the only thing that has looked rigged in the past 30 or whatever number of years is Rose to the Bulls. Everything else is narrative that starts with the assumption that it is rigged then tries to come up with the best rationale to call it rigged. That rationale of course never involves maximizing profits or league benefit, but is always something dumb like we want LeBron in his home town despite that having absolutely 0 value to the league, like the NBA probably would have made a billion dollars more if he landed in New York or Chicago, but they rigged him to be in Cleveland. Yeah. Right.

Doug - I'm on the conspiracy nut theory too. Mainly, because it is done so secretively and just using this year as an example for not only the Mavericks winning it, but the fact that the Spurs get the 2nd pick and the 76ers get the 3rd pick while the Jazz and Wizards get the 5th and 6th picks. I saw something like this was almost impossible to happen the way it did, but it did. The year the Pelicans won it, they were struggling with attendance and ran by the NBA if memory serves correctly. It could have literally been anyone but the Mavs and I think less of the conspiracy, but because of the ridiculous trade that only Nico talks literally to only the Lakers when before the gift of a pick, most teams would have offered like 4 or 5 picks in addition to an established player. Everyone was saying it was literally the worst trade in history - so is Nico one of the dumbest GM's in the history of sports (even dumber than AKME which is bad enough) or did he know? On top of this, the league has already been perceived as WWE for the last decade or 2 and this does not help.

[MrSparkle]

Watch Nico surprise us all and go Harper.

Seriously though, F the lottery. What a piss system.

Lebron to Cavs.
Rose to Bulls (yay, but unreal).

NOP loses CP3. Wins #1 AD with 8.8%.
NOP loses AD. Wins #1 Zion with 6%.

Wemby to Spurs (French connection).

Cavs won #1 after Lebron left (a bunch of them).

Even Lonzo to Lakers felt too fitting.

Getting tired of these convenient coincidences.

These aren't convenient coincidences. They are things people make up to backfill their narrative.

Cleveland, New Orleans, San Antonio are absolute crap markets. If the NBA was going to rig something, they'd friggen have rigged LeBron to the Bulls or Knicks not the Cavs. You think they could sell home town LeBron better than putting the best player on Earth in New York or Chicago? Same with all these other "let's help out a tiny team" narrative.

Virtually ever super-duper-star prospect went to a small market. The closest thing to an exception is Rose to Chicago, but he wasn't a super duper star prospect like LeBron or Wemby.

No one would rig things to minimize the amount of money they'd make.

I don’t really think it’s a conspiracy- probability can be funny and cruel.

But it is convenient for the league. I disagree with your point. The league benefits way more from making small market teams relevant. Maybe not domestic finals ratings (those take the biggest hit), but Lebron, Duncan/Manu/Parker, Giannis, Jokic absolutely put their small market teams on the map. They sell out the stadium their entire career. Even Vlade/Peja, Gasol Bros, without rings in SAC and MEM.

Knicks, Bulls, and Lakers sell out no matter how hard they suck. Celtics and Sixers to a lesser extent (to me they’re smaller markets, even Cs despite their legacy). I mean- Philly and Chicago led in attendance despite having a god awful product for over half the season.

Attendance in Denver, Milwaukee and Memphis really drops hard when they stink.

If Zion was consistently healthy and they didn’t have a track record of losing superstars due to reg. season collapses, NOP would be selling out.

[dougthonus]

Doug - I'm on the conspiracy nut theory too. Mainly, because it is done so secretively and just using this year as an example for not only the Mavericks winning it, but the fact that the Spurs get the 2nd pick and the 76ers get the 3rd pick while the Jazz and Wizards get the 5th and 6th picks. I saw something like this was almost impossible to happen the way it did, but it did. The year the Pelicans won it, they were struggling with attendance and ran by the NBA if memory serves correctly. It could have literally been anyone but the Mavs and I think less of the conspiracy, but because of the ridiculous trade that only Nico talks literally to only the Lakers when before the gift of a pick, most teams would have offered like 4 or 5 picks in addition to an established player. Everyone was saying it was literally the worst trade in history - so is Nico one of the dumbest GM's in the history of sports (even dumber than AKME which is bad enough) or did he know? On top of this, the league has already been perceived as WWE for the last decade or 2 and this does not help.

None of the rigged theories can answer the question:

Why would you rig things to lose money?

Why the hell would the league want Wemby in San Antonio, one of the worst markets in the league? Why would they not put Flagg in Chicago instead of Dallas? Why would they want to prop up the Pelicans vs putting Zion in Chicago or New York that had way better odds?

All of the things you could do that would add billions of dollars of value to the league you're not going to do? If it was ever proven the league rigged the lottery you would lose billions of dollars of value. The league would absolutely tank. You're going to take that risk to LOSE money? It's like cheating on your taxes to pay the government 80% instead of 30%.

I know people love a conspiracy theory, but as I said the rationale is always backwards thinking not forward thinking. Like all the executives in the league got in a room and said we want to direct the NBA to get Wemby in a bottom 5 market in the league and LeBron in a bottom 10 market in the league. If you think of it from a forward perspective, like the rigging committee is sitting down and thinking how are we going to rig the lottery this year, they decide to rig it to do these nonsensical things that minimize money?

[Am2626]

The nba gave them the second pick so they can make a move for another star ... the problem is san Antonio fans will stop coming to games and watching when their team sucks bulls fans stay loyal no matter how bad we are... so we keep getting screwed .

What exactly is there to stay loyal to? It’s a complete head scratcher that any fan would want to spend any of their money to support the Bulls. Why can’t people understand this and just stop buying season tickets or any tickets for that matter? I used to watch all of the Bulls games and even attend a game or two a year but what’s the point? We have to cut the profits of this greedy and money hungry organization. I want to see Bulls attendance at 6,000 / night like it was before Jordan was drafted. That’s what needs to happen. Then the Reinsdorf’s can finally sell to someone that actually cares and wants to see this organization be successful.

[Am2626]

A part of me would

love to see Flagg pull his name from the draft just for the meltdown it was cause.

OTOH, I want Dallas to take Flagg and he becomes modern Christian Laettner.

If it were the Wizards or Jazz maybe I could see Flagg pull his name from the draft. There is no way he’s doing that with Dallas having the number 1 pick. This was probably the best possible outcome for him.

[MrSparkle]

Doug - I'm on the conspiracy nut theory too. Mainly, because it is done so secretively and just using this year as an example for not only the Mavericks winning it, but the fact that the Spurs get the 2nd pick and the 76ers get the 3rd pick while the Jazz and Wizards get the 5th and 6th picks. I saw something like this was almost impossible to happen the way it did, but it did. The year the Pelicans won it, they were struggling with attendance and ran by the NBA if memory serves correctly. It could have literally been anyone but the Mavs and I think less of the conspiracy, but because of the ridiculous trade that only Nico talks literally to only the Lakers when before the gift of a pick, most teams would have offered like 4 or 5 picks in addition to an established player. Everyone was saying it was literally the worst trade in history - so is Nico one of the dumbest GM's in the history of sports (even dumber than AKME which is bad enough) or did he know? On top of this, the league has already been perceived as WWE for the last decade or 2 and this does not help.

None of the rigged theories can answer the question:

Why would you rig things to lose money?

Why the hell would the league want Wemby in San Antonio, one of the worst markets in the league? Why would they not put Flagg in Chicago instead of Dallas? Why would they want to prop up the Pelicans vs putting Zion in Chicago or New York that had way better odds?

All of the things you could do that would add billions of dollars of value to the league you're not going to do? If it was ever proven the league rigged the lottery you would lose billions of dollars of value. The league would absolutely tank. You're going to take that risk to LOSE money? It's like cheating on your taxes to pay the government 80% instead of 30%.

I know people love a conspiracy theory, but as I said the rationale is always backwards thinking not forward thinking. Like all the executives in the league got in a room and said we want to direct the NBA to get Wemby in a bottom 5 market in the league and LeBron in a bottom 10 market in the league. If you think of it from a forward perspective, like the rigging committee is sitting down and thinking how are we going to rig the lottery this year, they decide to rig it to do these nonsensical things that minimize money?

Fair enough, Doug - let’s just agree that the Bulls FO is both stupid AND unlucky.

[Am2626]

The best odds at getting the #1 are 14%… which isn’t good. 86% likely not to get it. What doth be crazy is dropping completely out of the top 4 while tanking hard. Some outcomes look specifically rigged (Atlanta did not for instance) but it is absolutely possible that it is but still overall unlikely. Regardless the system is set in place to discourage tanking and the system itself rigged or not is proving that trying to lose doesn’t give you the top pick. 14% is not a winning number.

Since they moved away from the envelopes, the only thing that has looked rigged in the past 30 or whatever number of years is Rose to the Bulls. Everything else is narrative that starts with the assumption that it is rigged then tries to come up with the best rationale to call it rigged. That rationale of course never involves maximizing profits or league benefit, but is always something dumb like we want LeBron in his home town despite that having absolutely 0 value to the league, like the NBA probably would have made a billion dollars more if he landed in New York or Chicago, but they rigged him to be in Cleveland. Yeah. Right.

I am not sure that the theories are all dumb they have some merit. This years does to the extent that it is if the whole Luka trade is rigged than this was part of it. Realistic answer is Nico and Pelinka are friends, the owner wanted Luka gone and the lottery is a lottery. The current theory is once again supported by the AD trade being a similar thing. The CP3 one is a stretch but hey why not. In that case all 3 involve AD!!!!

Math just simply supports that tanking doesn't work. BEST CASE scenario is 86% chance of failure.

Full on tanking doesn’t work but a team in the 6-10 slot has a good chance of getting in the top 4. If the Bulls just didn’t try to squeeze out every win as if it was a playoff game they could have been in the spot the Spurs finished and had the second pick. Even if they didn’t move up they would have been in a position to draft Maluach which fills a big need on this team. There was no benefit trying to win all those games against teams that aren’t even trying. The play in game just shows how bad this roster really is.

[Am2626]

Doug - I'm on the conspiracy nut theory too. Mainly, because it is done so secretively and just using this year as an example for not only the Mavericks winning it, but the fact that the Spurs get the 2nd pick and the 76ers get the 3rd pick while the Jazz and Wizards get the 5th and 6th picks. I saw something like this was almost impossible to happen the way it did, but it did. The year the Pelicans won it, they were struggling with attendance and ran by the NBA if memory serves correctly. It could have literally been anyone but the Mavs and I think less of the conspiracy, but because of the ridiculous trade that only Nico talks literally to only the Lakers when before the gift of a pick, most teams would have offered like 4 or 5 picks in addition to an established player. Everyone was saying it was literally the worst trade in history - so is Nico one of the dumbest GM's in the history of sports (even dumber than AKME which is bad enough) or did he know? On top of this, the league has already been perceived as WWE for the last decade or 2 and this does not help.

None of the rigged theories can answer the question:

Why would you rig things to lose money?

Why the hell would the league want Wemby in San Antonio, one of the worst markets in the league? Why would they not put Flagg in Chicago instead of Dallas? Why would they want to prop up the Pelicans vs putting Zion in Chicago or New York that had way better odds?

All of the things you could do that would add billions of dollars of value to the league you're not going to do? If it was ever proven the league rigged the lottery you would lose billions of dollars of value. The league would absolutely tank. You're going to take that risk to LOSE money? It's like cheating on your taxes to pay the government 80% instead of 30%.

I know people love a conspiracy theory, but as I said the rationale is always backwards thinking not forward thinking. Like all the executives in the league got in a room and said we want to direct the NBA to get Wemby in a bottom 5 market in the league and LeBron in a bottom 10 market in the league. If you think of it from a forward perspective, like the rigging committee is sitting down and thinking how are we going to rig the lottery this year, they decide to rig it to do these nonsensical things that minimize money?

Fair enough, Doug - let’s just agree that the Bulls FO is both stupid AND unlucky.

It’s more than that. The organization needs new Ownership. They hired this FO. It’s time for people to stop paying for a bad product.