2025 Regular/Offseason Season Thread Vol. 10

[DayofMourning]

Read on Twitter

Theres one stud and 2 other dudes.

[VaDe255]

Spoiler:

Yes I am calling you a casual for talking about Net rating over WINNING GAMES

Speaking of the Jimmy window are you talking about the 2 finals and 3 ECF appearances we went to during that stretch with a guy as the frontline star who won't even be remembered as a top 10 player of his era? I think the window was maximized. If you want to be mad at somebody for how it ended in 23-24 talk to Adam Silver maybe he can issue you a memo

The organization did it's job drafting two supporting stars in the mid 1st round, and then sourcing a litany of supporting cast members from scratch. Again nobody wants to acknowledge the absolute mess LeBron leaving and the blood clots of Bosh created here. Miami should have been sitting in the basement, instead we recovered so well our fans can turn their nose up at going to the conference finals 3 out of 5 years

Yeah, winning games > net rating, got you. I’m the casual, clearly…

Meanwhile, every front office in the league relies on it to make real decisions. But let’s ignore the stat that filters out noise and luck, and just keep putting our faith in “culture” and vibes—as long as we “win games” (newsflash: they mostly haven’t been winning games either, literally a mid team)

You should apply to the Heat, honestly. They’re always looking for new ways to stay mid with conviction

Can he rely on your network of coaches and front office execs to kick off his application process?

Not needed, he’s already mastered the key qualification: Confidently ignoring data while doubling down on vibes

[greg4012]

Spoiler:

Yeah, winning games > net rating, got you. I’m the casual, clearly…

Meanwhile, every front office in the league relies on it to make real decisions. But let’s ignore the stat that filters out noise and luck, and just keep putting our faith in “culture” and vibes—as long as we “win games” (newsflash: they mostly haven’t been winning games either, literally a mid team)

You should apply to the Heat, honestly. They’re always looking for new ways to stay mid with conviction

Can he rely on your network of coaches and front office execs to kick off his application process?

Not needed, he’s already mastered the key qualification: Confidently ignoring data while doubling down on vibes

Connections always matter. Surely you can help since you have the ear of execs and coaching staffs across the NBA

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Theres one stud and 2 other dudes.

That threw me off too

[VaDe255]

Spoiler:

Can he rely on your network of coaches and front office execs to kick off his application process?

Not needed, he’s already mastered the key qualification: Confidently ignoring data while doubling down on vibes

Connections always matter. Surely you can help since you have the ear of execs and coaching staffs across the NBA

Happy to help. I’ll just forward his takes directly, nothing impresses execs like proudly dismissing one of the most basic tools they actually use. Might even fast track him to VP of Vibes

[Heat3]

Read on Twitter

Theres one stud and 2 other dudes.

Imagine if they trade it for Maxey while the Heat drafted Precious

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Any interest in pairing Jrue White or KP with Bam KD and Boy Wonder?

[DayofMourning]

Any interest in pairing Jrue White or KP with Bam KD and Boy Wonder?

D white all day!!!

[batterybro42]

What a wild take calling net rating "casual" like it’s some fringe stat.
Net rating is literally one of the most predictive metrics we have for team quality, it strips out the noise from close wins, clutch luck, and inflated records. Every serious analyst, FO and coach pays attention to it.

Being a fan doesn’t mean ignoring facts. Nobody’s denying Miami’s had some unforgettable playoff runs. But over a decade long sample, this team has been a treadmill squad. A couple of fluky deep runs don’t erase the bigger picture, just because some are allergic to numbers.

And all these excuses about losing LeBron, Bosh’s health, or bad luck, they don’t honor the organization, they highlight their stubbornness. Those were clear signals to reset, and instead, they clung to patchwork rosters year after year. That short sightedness cost them a better shot at maximizing the Jimmy window

Yes I am calling you a casual for talking about Net rating over WINNING GAMES

Speaking of the Jimmy window are you talking about the 2 finals and 3 ECF appearances we went to during that stretch with a guy as the frontline star who won't even be remembered as a top 10 player of his era? I think the window was maximized. If you want to be mad at somebody for how it ended in 23-24 talk to Adam Silver maybe he can issue you a memo

The organization did it's job drafting two supporting stars in the mid 1st round, and then sourcing a litany of supporting cast members from scratch. Again nobody wants to acknowledge the absolute mess LeBron leaving and the blood clots of Bosh created here. Miami should have been sitting in the basement, instead we recovered so well our fans can turn their nose up at going to the conference finals 3 out of 5 years

Yeah, winning games > net rating, got you. I’m the casual, clearly…

Meanwhile, every front office in the league relies on it to make real decisions. But let’s ignore the stat that filters out noise and luck, and just keep putting our faith in “culture” and vibes—as long as we “win games” (newsflash: they mostly haven’t been winning games either, literally a mid team)

You should apply to the Heat, honestly. They’re always looking for new ways to stay mid with conviction

8th best win percentage in the league in the last 10 years when they spent the first couple of those relying on Rodney Mcgruder, Josh Richardson, and Winslow with the Big Star Hassan Whiteside they got out of Lithuania or whatever hellscape he was playing basketball in. 5th most playoff wins during that stretch.

You strike me as somebody who grew up on the Big 3 Heat and have no concept for how outrageously special that was to have, and that it absolutely is not a reasonable expectation for a franchise. Things happen just look at Boston, who did everything right, only to have their best player blow out his Achilles at the absolute worst moment. Now pushed deep into the apron they will be forced to break their team up, and go through their own pain. It is impossible to sustain elite status, but what Miami has done since Riley has been here is remain in the conversation and given themselves opportunity to bring home meaningful hardware. By the way they have the most finals appearances of any team in the league over the last 20 years. And are second only to the best dynasty since the Bulls the Warriors in rings. Get a GRIP

[NightWatch]

I am letting you guys know Warriors 1-0 vs Minns in 2nd round. Let me know if you guys still think Heat wouldn't have been in 2nd round if Jimmy Butler were still here. if you still don't think so. I will come back again in semi-final if Warriors made it that far.

I''ve always known Heat would fall off big without Jimmy Butler. Wiggins was not going to cut it. Kevin Durant is not going to save the Heat either. Heat next best vet player would've been Kawhi Leonard or heat going to have to wait a long time to develop the right player.

Guess you won’t be back.

Yes and to be fair, Minnesota put a lot of pressure on butler while everyone else just disappeared.

IND 3-1 Cavs

[batterybro42]

Spoiler:

Yeah, winning games > net rating, got you. I’m the casual, clearly…

Meanwhile, every front office in the league relies on it to make real decisions. But let’s ignore the stat that filters out noise and luck, and just keep putting our faith in “culture” and vibes—as long as we “win games” (newsflash: they mostly haven’t been winning games either, literally a mid team)

You should apply to the Heat, honestly. They’re always looking for new ways to stay mid with conviction

Can he rely on your network of coaches and front office execs to kick off his application process?

Not needed, he’s already mastered the key qualification: Confidently ignoring data while doubling down on vibes

"Wins are not an important metric when evaluating team success" This guy probably

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I am letting you guys know Warriors 1-0 vs Minns in 2nd round. Let me know if you guys still think Heat wouldn't have been in 2nd round if Jimmy Butler were still here. if you still don't think so. I will come back again in semi-final if Warriors made it that far.

I''ve always known Heat would fall off big without Jimmy Butler. Wiggins was not going to cut it. Kevin Durant is not going to save the Heat either. Heat next best vet player would've been Kawhi Leonard or heat going to have to wait a long time to develop the right player.

Guess you won’t be back.

Yes and to be fair, Minnesota put a lot of pressure on butler while everyone else just disappeared.

IND 3-1 Cavs

Ok

[RexBoyWonder]

Honestly, Bam going forward making big money - not the best asset to have if you want to reach the highest levels. Not unless you get 2 legit studs that are better then him. Very hard to do while keeping him.

Will always disagree with this point (which seems to be litigated on here every day). Bam is optimized with 2 better SCORERS than him, but Bam is one of the absolute best frontcourt players in the NBA to pair with a top 5-10 level scorer in the NBA.

Scoring is crucial, but too many are too quick to dismiss the critical impact of everything else that goes into winning basketball.

What Bam provides at 25-30% of the salary cap is value (right in the same range he's been in despite the scary numbers in a rising cap league) and is the ideal fit to optimize a top scorer's game.

See the Phoenix Suns experiment.

I'm fully aware of the things Bam brings to to table, he's a very good player.

But without 2 legit offensive players in front of him no team will have a chance to win big. And with our limited assets and his salary going up, I'm not sure how we get those 2 while keeping him. I'm not sold Herro can be 1 of those needed 2 better scorers either, his physical limitations could be a killer in late playoffs ball.

I can make the same argument about Herro, I'm just not sure he has the trade value Bam has.

Basically I love Bam as the third option. I hate a team when he needs to be the 1 or 2 option.

Hence why I want to add high lottery picks ASAP.

[VaDe255]

Yes I am calling you a casual for talking about Net rating over WINNING GAMES

Speaking of the Jimmy window are you talking about the 2 finals and 3 ECF appearances we went to during that stretch with a guy as the frontline star who won't even be remembered as a top 10 player of his era? I think the window was maximized. If you want to be mad at somebody for how it ended in 23-24 talk to Adam Silver maybe he can issue you a memo

The organization did it's job drafting two supporting stars in the mid 1st round, and then sourcing a litany of supporting cast members from scratch. Again nobody wants to acknowledge the absolute mess LeBron leaving and the blood clots of Bosh created here. Miami should have been sitting in the basement, instead we recovered so well our fans can turn their nose up at going to the conference finals 3 out of 5 years

Yeah, winning games > net rating, got you. I’m the casual, clearly…

Meanwhile, every front office in the league relies on it to make real decisions. But let’s ignore the stat that filters out noise and luck, and just keep putting our faith in “culture” and vibes—as long as we “win games” (newsflash: they mostly haven’t been winning games either, literally a mid team)

You should apply to the Heat, honestly. They’re always looking for new ways to stay mid with conviction

8th best win percentage in the league in the last 10 years when they spent the first couple of those relying on Rodney Mcgruder, Josh Richardson, and Winslow with the Big Star Hassan Whiteside they got out of Lithuania or whatever hellscape he was playing basketball in. 5th most playoff wins during that stretch.

You strike me as somebody who grew up on the Big 3 Heat and have no concept for how outrageously special that was to have, and that it absolutely is not a reasonable expectation for a franchise. Things happen just look at Boston, who did everything right, only to have their best player blow out his Achilles at the absolute worst moment. Now pushed deep into the apron they will be forced to break their team up, and go through their own pain. It is impossible to sustain elite status, but what Miami has done since Riley has been here is remain in the conversation and given themselves opportunity to bring home meaningful hardware. By the way they have the most finals appearances of any team in the league over the last 20 years. And are second only to the best dynasty since the Bulls the Warriors in rings. Get a GRIP

I'm talking about the last 10 years. Not 20, everything Riles did before Bron left was mostly great.
It's the last 10 years, where this FO literally was treadmill and refused to reset.
If they had properly reset, they would have likely had more championships by now, because what they did in those 10 years is just patchwork of teams that were never real contenders.

They haven't been close to the net rating, which championship teams usually have, not a single season in those 10 years!
This is the most reliable way to confirm that not once had they been close to having a real contender, sometimes a low net rating team flukes their way through a draw and overperforms in the postseason it happens, but historically these are very very rare outliers.

If they continue like they did the last 10 years, there will not be a single title for the next decade.

[greg4012]

Honestly, Bam going forward making big money - not the best asset to have if you want to reach the highest levels. Not unless you get 2 legit studs that are better then him. Very hard to do while keeping him.

Will always disagree with this point (which seems to be litigated on here every day). Bam is optimized with 2 better SCORERS than him, but Bam is one of the absolute best frontcourt players in the NBA to pair with a top 5-10 level scorer in the NBA.

Scoring is crucial, but too many are too quick to dismiss the critical impact of everything else that goes into winning basketball.

What Bam provides at 25-30% of the salary cap is value (right in the same range he's been in despite the scary numbers in a rising cap league) and is the ideal fit to optimize a top scorer's game.

See the Phoenix Suns experiment.

I'm fully aware of the things Bam brings to to table, he's a very good player.

But without 2 legit offensive players in front of him no team will have a chance to win big. And with our limited assets and his salary going up, I'm not sure how we get those 2 while keeping him. I'm not sold Herro can be 1 of those needed 2 better scorers either, his physical limitations could be a killer in late playoffs ball.

I can make the same argument about Herro, I'm just not sure he has the trade value Bam has.

Basically I love Bam as the third option. I hate a team when he needs to be the 1 or 2 option.

Hence why I want to add high lottery picks ASAP.

Same thing with 2 legit offensive players without great defense around them and people movers that can still check other boxes on the floor without compromising their game.

Optimal Bam = 3rd leading scorer; foundation of defense; core hub for offensive actions.

In terms of value, there are multiple builds where pairing Bam with a top 5-10 player and another microwave scorer type works great. In most instances the role players around such a build would just need to be 3&D.

Basically, I believe any talk freaking out about Bam's salary is a red herring as he will continue to be in the 25-30% of salary cap range that he has been for the past few years for the life of his new contract. His impact is commensurate with that. Miami is just stuck with very limited means of acquiring a top 10 player. Welcome to the struggle for 2/3 of the NBA.

Like I said, I'm cool with trading any player on the team if the price is right (getting Harper plus another FRP sounds about right). I'm not desperate to do so for the sake of doing so if the return isn't there.

[RexBoyWonder]

Will always disagree with this point (which seems to be litigated on here every day). Bam is optimized with 2 better SCORERS than him, but Bam is one of the absolute best frontcourt players in the NBA to pair with a top 5-10 level scorer in the NBA.

Scoring is crucial, but too many are too quick to dismiss the critical impact of everything else that goes into winning basketball.

What Bam provides at 25-30% of the salary cap is value (right in the same range he's been in despite the scary numbers in a rising cap league) and is the ideal fit to optimize a top scorer's game.

See the Phoenix Suns experiment.

I'm fully aware of the things Bam brings to to table, he's a very good player.

But without 2 legit offensive players in front of him no team will have a chance to win big. And with our limited assets and his salary going up, I'm not sure how we get those 2 while keeping him. I'm not sold Herro can be 1 of those needed 2 better scorers either, his physical limitations could be a killer in late playoffs ball.

I can make the same argument about Herro, I'm just not sure he has the trade value Bam has.

Basically I love Bam as the third option. I hate a team when he needs to be the 1 or 2 option.

Hence why I want to add high lottery picks ASAP.

Same thing with 2 legit offensive players without great defense around them and people movers that can still check other boxes on the floor without compromising their game.

Optimal Bam = 3rd leading scorer; foundation of defense; core hub for offensive actions.

In terms of value, there are multiple builds where pairing Bam with a top 5-10 player and another microwave scorer type (works great).

Basically, I believe any talk freaking out about Bam's salary is a red herring as he will continue to be in the 25-30% of salary cap range that he has been for the past few years for the life of his new contract. His impact is commensurate with that. Miami is just stuck with very limited means of acquiring a top 10 player. Welcome to the struggle for 2/3 of the NBA.

Like I said, I'm cool with trading any player on the team if the price is right (getting Harper plus another FRP sounds about right). I'm not desperate to do so for the sake of doing so if the return isn't there.

If we can swap Bam for a legit 1A scorer - we should do it. Be it an established star or the #2 pick this year.

Simply because it's easier to find ways to build a good defense without Bam then to build a good offense with this current roster.

This coaching staff can coach up a defense and find defenders on the market. but they can't make a player have elite offensive talent or trade for one without Bam. Unless we go to the lottery.

[greg4012]

I'm fully aware of the things Bam brings to to table, he's a very good player.

But without 2 legit offensive players in front of him no team will have a chance to win big. And with our limited assets and his salary going up, I'm not sure how we get those 2 while keeping him. I'm not sold Herro can be 1 of those needed 2 better scorers either, his physical limitations could be a killer in late playoffs ball.

I can make the same argument about Herro, I'm just not sure he has the trade value Bam has.

Basically I love Bam as the third option. I hate a team when he needs to be the 1 or 2 option.

Hence why I want to add high lottery picks ASAP.

Same thing with 2 legit offensive players without great defense around them and people movers that can still check other boxes on the floor without compromising their game.

Optimal Bam = 3rd leading scorer; foundation of defense; core hub for offensive actions.

In terms of value, there are multiple builds where pairing Bam with a top 5-10 player and another microwave scorer type (works great).

Basically, I believe any talk freaking out about Bam's salary is a red herring as he will continue to be in the 25-30% of salary cap range that he has been for the past few years for the life of his new contract. His impact is commensurate with that. Miami is just stuck with very limited means of acquiring a top 10 player. Welcome to the struggle for 2/3 of the NBA.

Like I said, I'm cool with trading any player on the team if the price is right (getting Harper plus another FRP sounds about right). I'm not desperate to do so for the sake of doing so if the return isn't there.

If we can swap Bam for a legit 1A scorer - we should do it. Be it an established star or the #2 pick this year.

Simply because it's easier to find ways to build a good defense without Bam then to build a good offense with this current roster.

This coaching staff can coach up a defense and find defenders on the market. but they can't make a player have elite offensive talent or trade for one without Bam. Unless we go to the lottery.

You absolutely have to invest in defense to get quality defense in the NBA. People are too quick to think there are magic solutions on that end IMO.

But, we're not disagreeing on being open to a commensurate return. I think you're just eager for movement and change.

But, if we can source opportunity to trade Bam for a top 10-15 player in the NBA (pretty much the scope of "legit 1A scorers" in the league) or for a generational prospect that projects well for that then let's do it.

[DayofMourning]

I believe we should be entering our next five year phase right now.

[greg4012]

I believe we should be entering our next five year phase right now.

It's def a fascinating time. Signals suggest that the FO has 2026 offseason earmarked as something of a junction point for roster building. But, I don't think that means the FO is closed for business until then.

If the right opp arises and Miami can strike, that's cool. If not, there's a good chance that Miami is gonna have another full-on dev season next year (won't be mad if Bam and Herro miss some extra games) and aim to strike big between next season and 2026 offseason (whether trade or FA). If Miami can wait until then to decide on Herro extension, that would be ideal IMO.

[DayofMourning]

I believe we should be entering our next five year phase right now.

It's def a fascinating time. Signals suggest that the FO has 2026 offseason earmarked as something of a junction point for roster building. But, I don't think that means the FO is closed for business until then.

If the right opp arises and Miami can strike, that's cool. If not, there's a good chance that Miami is gonna have another full-on dev season next year (won't be mad if Bam and Herro miss some extra games) and aim to strike big between next season and 2026 offseason (whether trade or FA). If Miami can wait until then to decide on Herro extension, that would be ideal IMO.

Yeah, we r gonna build the whole time. Strike when you can. Hope u can strike again.

U see a window, you have to max it out. Adding KD to this next 5 year build seems the most logical based on our team building philosophy.