2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[stormi]

Is projecting out NBA success via baseline indicators easier than one might think?

Here's a list of the top 25 players per the Ringer heading into the 2025 playoffs and their box plus minus in their ultimate college season
( https://nbarankings.theringer.com/ )

1. Nikola Jokic - Euro
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 9.0 BPM (FR)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Euro
4. Jayson Tatum - 7.9 BPM (FR)
5. Luka Doncic - Euro
6. Steph Curry - Pre-BPM (JR)
7. Anthony Edwards - 5.5 BPM (FR)
8. Lebron James - High School
9. Donovan Mitchell - 11.1 BPM (SO)
10. Jalen Brunson - 10.2 BPM (JR)
11. Kevin Durant - Pre-BPM, ///statistical profile likely eclipses 13.0 (FR)
12. Victor Wembanyama - Euro
13. Evan Mobley - 13.7 BPM (FR)
14. Anthony Davis - 17.2 BPM (lol) (FR)
15. Cade Cunningham - 8.3 BPM (FR)
16. Kawhi Leonard - 9.2 BPM (SO)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns - 14.3 BPM (FR)
18. Devin Booker - 9.4 BPM (FR)
19. Tyrese Haliburton - 11.7 BPM (SO)
20. Jimmy Butler - 9.4 BPM (JR)
21. Jaylen Brown - 3.6 BPM (FR)
22. Jaren Jackson - 11.7 BPM (FR)
23. Paolo Banchero - 7.7 BPM (FR)
24. Jalen Williams - 6.0 BPM (SO)
25. James Harden - Pre-BPM, ///likely 12+ (SO)

9+ BPM: 11/17 such cases
7.5+ BPM: 14/17 such cases
Unsure about Jokic & Giannis, but Wemabanyama, Curry, James, Doncic, Harden and Durant almost assuredly all would have hit 13+ as they're some of the most dominant NBA draft prospects of all time, this loosely takes us to 20/23 of the very best players in the association hitting at least 7.5 BPM as a benchmark.

The outliers?

a) Anthony Edwards - Was a polarizing prospect. Hung his hat on rim finishing and athleticism. Looking back the 3P volume & FT numbers were a good indicator but his profile was still controversial as a top pick. His year to year progression showcase him as an extreme outlier. ATG shooting season, massive playmaking leap etc

Even then, likening him to someone like Bailey is still a stretch. Ant got to the rim at will, was an elite finisher and shot well from the FT line. Ant showcased positive decision making even if raw 17.9 AST%: 12.9 TOV% (vs 8.3 AST% to 11.0 TOV% for AB). Edwards is also a 1 of 1 personality and has rare internal drive and self belief.

b) Jaylen Brown - Another raw athlete that underwent significant development post draft. Still some indicators here that gave a bit of promise to where he could get. Brown had a near 58% free throw rate at Cal. This is utterly elite, he got downhill and forced you to foul him. For some reference, Jimmy Butler is at 53% for his career, Joel Embiid is a 55%, Bailey was at 24% this season at Rutgers.

c) Jalen Williams - Role player.

And here are top 10 picks on Wasserman's latest post lotto mock ( https://www.nba.com/news/bleacher-report-latest-mock-draft-after-mavs-get-surprise-lottery-win )

1. Cooper Flagg - 16.3 BPM (lol) (FR)
2. Dylan Harper - 9.2 BPM (FR)
3. VJ Edgecombe - 11.4 BPM (FR)
4. Ace Bailey - 4.5 BPM (FR)
5. Jeremiah Fears - 5.9 BPM (FR)
6. Tre Johnson - 7.7 BPM (FR)
7. Khaman Maluach - 9.9 BPM (FR)
8. Derik Queen - 9.2 BPM (FR)
9. Noa Essengue - Euro
10. Kon Knueppel - 10.8 BPM (FR)

There's a significant outlier here not only compared to his peers, but projecting out someone that has a realistic pathway to being star. Unfortunately I see Jalen McDaniels (no, not Jaden) as an extremely plausible outcome.

[Negrodamus]

Is projecting out NBA success via baseline indicators easier than one might think?

Here's a list of the top 25 players per the Ringer heading into the 2025 playoffs and their box plus minus in their ultimate college season
( https://nbarankings.theringer.com/ )

1. Nikola Jokic - Euro
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 9.0 BPM (FR)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Euro
4. Jayson Tatum - 7.9 BPM (FR)
5. Luka Doncic - Euro
6. Steph Curry - Pre-BPM (JR)
7. Anthony Edwards - 5.5 BPM (FR)
8. Lebron James - High School
9. Donovan Mitchell - 11.1 BPM (SO)
10. Jalen Brunson - 10.2 BPM (JR)
11. Kevin Durant - Pre-BPM, ///statistical profile likely eclipses 13.0 (FR)
12. Victor Wembanyama - Euro
13. Evan Mobley - 13.7 BPM (FR)
14. Anthony Davis - 17.2 BPM (lol) (FR)
15. Cade Cunningham - 8.3 BPM (FR)
16. Kawhi Leonard - 9.2 BPM (SO)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns - 14.3 BPM (FR)
18. Devin Booker - 9.4 BPM (FR)
19. Tyrese Haliburton - 11.7 BPM (SO)
20. Jimmy Butler - 9.4 BPM (JR)
21. Jaylen Brown - 3.6 BPM (FR)
22. Jaren Jackson - 11.7 BPM (FR)
23. Paolo Banchero - 7.7 BPM (FR)
24. Jalen Williams - 6.0 BPM (SO)
25. James Harden - Pre-BPM, ///likely 12+ (SO)

9+ BPM: 11/17 such cases
7.5+ BPM: 14/17 such cases
Unsure about Jokic & Giannis, but Wemabanyama, Curry, James, Doncic, Harden and Durant almost assuredly all would have hit 13+ as they're some of the most dominant NBA draft prospects of all time, this loosely takes us to 20/23 of the very best players in the association hitting at least 7.5 BPM as a benchmark.

The outliers?

a) Anthony Edwards - Was a polarizing prospect. Hung his hat on rim finishing and athleticism. Looking back the 3P volume & FT numbers were a good indicator but his profile was still controversial as a top pick. His year to year progression showcase him as an extreme outlier. ATG shooting season, massive playmaking leap etc

Even then, likening him to someone like Bailey is still a stretch. Ant got to the rim at will, was an elite finisher and shot well from the FT line. Ant showcased positive decision making even if raw 17.9 AST%: 12.9 TOV% (vs 8.3 AST% to 11.0 TOV% for AB). Edwards is also a 1 of 1 personality and has rare internal drive and self belief.

b) Jaylen Brown - Another raw athlete that underwent significant development post draft. Still some indicators here that gave a bit of promise to where he could get. Brown had a near 58% free throw rate at Cal. This is utterly elite, he got downhill and forced you to foul him. For some reference, Jimmy Butler is at 53% for his career, Joel Embiid is a 55%, Bailey was at 24% this season at Rutgers.

c) Jalen Williams - Role player.

And here are top 10 picks on Wasserman's latest post lotto mock ( https://www.nba.com/news/bleacher-report-latest-mock-draft-after-mavs-get-surprise-lottery-win )

1. Cooper Flagg - 16.3 BPM (lol) (FR)
2. Dylan Harper - 9.2 BPM (FR)
3. VJ Edgecombe - 11.4 BPM (FR)
4. Ace Bailey - 4.5 BPM (FR)
5. Jeremiah Fears - 5.9 BPM (FR)
6. Tre Johnson - 7.7 BPM (FR)
7. Khaman Maluach - 9.9 BPM (FR)
8. Derik Queen - 9.2 BPM (FR)
9. Noa Essengue - Euro
10. Kon Knueppel - 10.8 BPM (FR)

There's a significant outlier here not only compared to his peers, but projecting out someone that has a realistic pathway to being star. Unfortunately I see Jalen McDaniels (no, not Jaden) as an extremely plausible outcome.

Keep trying to talk myself into Ace because of his size, age, and upside as a shooter, but this type of post reminds me he’s just not worth it.

[76ciology]

Im sold with Tre Johnson with the 3rd pick for now.

[Stanford]

Im sold with Tre Johnson with the 3rd pick for now.

Why?

[stormi]

Is projecting out NBA success via baseline indicators easier than one might think?

Here's a list of the top 25 players per the Ringer heading into the 2025 playoffs and their box plus minus in their ultimate college season
( https://nbarankings.theringer.com/ )

1. Nikola Jokic - Euro
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 9.0 BPM (FR)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Euro
4. Jayson Tatum - 7.9 BPM (FR)
5. Luka Doncic - Euro
6. Steph Curry - Pre-BPM (JR)
7. Anthony Edwards - 5.5 BPM (FR)
8. Lebron James - High School
9. Donovan Mitchell - 11.1 BPM (SO)
10. Jalen Brunson - 10.2 BPM (JR)
11. Kevin Durant - Pre-BPM, ///statistical profile likely eclipses 13.0 (FR)
12. Victor Wembanyama - Euro
13. Evan Mobley - 13.7 BPM (FR)
14. Anthony Davis - 17.2 BPM (lol) (FR)
15. Cade Cunningham - 8.3 BPM (FR)
16. Kawhi Leonard - 9.2 BPM (SO)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns - 14.3 BPM (FR)
18. Devin Booker - 9.4 BPM (FR)
19. Tyrese Haliburton - 11.7 BPM (SO)
20. Jimmy Butler - 9.4 BPM (JR)
21. Jaylen Brown - 3.6 BPM (FR)
22. Jaren Jackson - 11.7 BPM (FR)
23. Paolo Banchero - 7.7 BPM (FR)
24. Jalen Williams - 6.0 BPM (SO)
25. James Harden - Pre-BPM, ///likely 12+ (SO)

9+ BPM: 11/17 such cases
7.5+ BPM: 14/17 such cases
Unsure about Jokic & Giannis, but Wemabanyama, Curry, James, Doncic, Harden and Durant almost assuredly all would have hit 13+ as they're some of the most dominant NBA draft prospects of all time, this loosely takes us to 20/23 of the very best players in the association hitting at least 7.5 BPM as a benchmark.

The outliers?

a) Anthony Edwards - Was a polarizing prospect. Hung his hat on rim finishing and athleticism. Looking back the 3P volume & FT numbers were a good indicator but his profile was still controversial as a top pick. His year to year progression showcase him as an extreme outlier. ATG shooting season, massive playmaking leap etc

Even then, likening him to someone like Bailey is still a stretch. Ant got to the rim at will, was an elite finisher and shot well from the FT line. Ant showcased positive decision making even if raw 17.9 AST%: 12.9 TOV% (vs 8.3 AST% to 11.0 TOV% for AB). Edwards is also a 1 of 1 personality and has rare internal drive and self belief.

b) Jaylen Brown - Another raw athlete that underwent significant development post draft. Still some indicators here that gave a bit of promise to where he could get. Brown had a near 58% free throw rate at Cal. This is utterly elite, he got downhill and forced you to foul him. For some reference, Jimmy Butler is at 53% for his career, Joel Embiid is a 55%, Bailey was at 24% this season at Rutgers.

c) Jalen Williams - Role player.

And here are top 10 picks on Wasserman's latest post lotto mock ( https://www.nba.com/news/bleacher-report-latest-mock-draft-after-mavs-get-surprise-lottery-win )

1. Cooper Flagg - 16.3 BPM (lol) (FR)
2. Dylan Harper - 9.2 BPM (FR)
3. VJ Edgecombe - 11.4 BPM (FR)
4. Ace Bailey - 4.5 BPM (FR)
5. Jeremiah Fears - 5.9 BPM (FR)
6. Tre Johnson - 7.7 BPM (FR)
7. Khaman Maluach - 9.9 BPM (FR)
8. Derik Queen - 9.2 BPM (FR)
9. Noa Essengue - Euro
10. Kon Knueppel - 10.8 BPM (FR)

There's a significant outlier here not only compared to his peers, but projecting out someone that has a realistic pathway to being star. Unfortunately I see Jalen McDaniels (no, not Jaden) as an extremely plausible outcome.

Keep trying to talk myself into Ace because of his size, age, and upside as a shooter, but this type of post reminds me he’s just not worth it.

I'll talk myself into it after the pick is made, like I did with Springer. Even Springer's draft profile wipes Ace's but the tape was really ugly to me. Ace doesn't have the tape nor the numbers to fall back on as a crutch.

I seriously don't understand how he can have poor shooting numbers, bad self creation numbers, horrendous assist numbers, a low FT rate and be a bad shooter from the foul stripe and be locked in top three by gen-pop.

The NBA draft community is one of the least progressive subspaces on the interwebz.

[Arsenal]

Close size comparisons for Tre Johnson (wingspan and standing reach):
Buddy Hield
Caris Levert
Caleb Martin

Two guys you forgot:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
James Harden

[Kobblehead]

Why Tre Johnson over Kon Knueppel?

[Arsenal]

I've seen a few places claiming Ace Bailey was a 90% free-throw shooter in high school. If true that helps his statistical shooting profile significantly.

Are these stats available anywhere?

[76ciology]

Is projecting out NBA success via baseline indicators easier than one might think?

Here's a list of the top 25 players per the Ringer heading into the 2025 playoffs and their box plus minus in their ultimate college season
( https://nbarankings.theringer.com/ )

1. Nikola Jokic - Euro
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 9.0 BPM (FR)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Euro
4. Jayson Tatum - 7.9 BPM (FR)
5. Luka Doncic - Euro
6. Steph Curry - Pre-BPM (JR)
7. Anthony Edwards - 5.5 BPM (FR)
8. Lebron James - High School
9. Donovan Mitchell - 11.1 BPM (SO)
10. Jalen Brunson - 10.2 BPM (JR)
11. Kevin Durant - Pre-BPM, ///statistical profile likely eclipses 13.0 (FR)
12. Victor Wembanyama - Euro
13. Evan Mobley - 13.7 BPM (FR)
14. Anthony Davis - 17.2 BPM (lol) (FR)
15. Cade Cunningham - 8.3 BPM (FR)
16. Kawhi Leonard - 9.2 BPM (SO)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns - 14.3 BPM (FR)
18. Devin Booker - 9.4 BPM (FR)
19. Tyrese Haliburton - 11.7 BPM (SO)
20. Jimmy Butler - 9.4 BPM (JR)
21. Jaylen Brown - 3.6 BPM (FR)
22. Jaren Jackson - 11.7 BPM (FR)
23. Paolo Banchero - 7.7 BPM (FR)
24. Jalen Williams - 6.0 BPM (SO)
25. James Harden - Pre-BPM, ///likely 12+ (SO)

9+ BPM: 11/17 such cases
7.5+ BPM: 14/17 such cases
Unsure about Jokic & Giannis, but Wemabanyama, Curry, James, Doncic, Harden and Durant almost assuredly all would have hit 13+ as they're some of the most dominant NBA draft prospects of all time, this loosely takes us to 20/23 of the very best players in the association hitting at least 7.5 BPM as a benchmark.

The outliers?

a) Anthony Edwards - Was a polarizing prospect. Hung his hat on rim finishing and athleticism. Looking back the 3P volume & FT numbers were a good indicator but his profile was still controversial as a top pick. His year to year progression showcase him as an extreme outlier. ATG shooting season, massive playmaking leap etc

Even then, likening him to someone like Bailey is still a stretch. Ant got to the rim at will, was an elite finisher and shot well from the FT line. Ant showcased positive decision making even if raw 17.9 AST%: 12.9 TOV% (vs 8.3 AST% to 11.0 TOV% for AB). Edwards is also a 1 of 1 personality and has rare internal drive and self belief.

b) Jaylen Brown - Another raw athlete that underwent significant development post draft. Still some indicators here that gave a bit of promise to where he could get. Brown had a near 58% free throw rate at Cal. This is utterly elite, he got downhill and forced you to foul him. For some reference, Jimmy Butler is at 53% for his career, Joel Embiid is a 55%, Bailey was at 24% this season at Rutgers.

c) Jalen Williams - Role player.

And here are top 10 picks on Wasserman's latest post lotto mock ( https://www.nba.com/news/bleacher-report-latest-mock-draft-after-mavs-get-surprise-lottery-win )

1. Cooper Flagg - 16.3 BPM (lol) (FR)
2. Dylan Harper - 9.2 BPM (FR)
3. VJ Edgecombe - 11.4 BPM (FR)
4. Ace Bailey - 4.5 BPM (FR)
5. Jeremiah Fears - 5.9 BPM (FR)
6. Tre Johnson - 7.7 BPM (FR)
7. Khaman Maluach - 9.9 BPM (FR)
8. Derik Queen - 9.2 BPM (FR)
9. Noa Essengue - Euro
10. Kon Knueppel - 10.8 BPM (FR)

There's a significant outlier here not only compared to his peers, but projecting out someone that has a realistic pathway to being star. Unfortunately I see Jalen McDaniels (no, not Jaden) as an extremely plausible outcome.

Yes, and a lot of draft analysts tend to overvalue BPM. Including me and that lead me pick my horses like Franz Wagner, Walker Kessler, Keegan Murray, Cam Thomas, Sensabaugh and so forth.

But it’s just one tool, you still need to understand the game and how certain traits translate in context. Take Zhaire Smith, for example. He had a 10 BPM (i believe our FO also did put a lot of value on his BPM), but his skill set wasn’t valued to his position, nor did he have the traits of a future NBA star. I see a similar case with VJ Edgecombe right now.

To me, BPM is just an indicator of impact+box score, not a definitive measure of future success. In Bailey’s case, it suggests he might be an empty calorie scorer. Same MAYBE goes for guys like Anthony Edwards or Jaylen Brown early on, they posted inefficient scoring numbers, which BPM picked up on. But again, context matters.

[Arsenal]

Why Tre Johnson over Kon Knueppel?

Johnson smokes Knueppel in off-the-dribble 3PT shooting. Very important for a lead guard. Kneuppel profiles more as a Redick-type of off-ball shooter.

[Arsenal]

There is a huge difference playing on a stacked Duke team versus that straight garbage Rutgers squad. That has a big impact on statistical metrics which is hard to quantify.

Harper and Bailey did themselves no favors by going to Rutgers.

[stormi]

I've seen a few places claiming Ace Bailey was a 90% free-throw shooter in high school. If true that helps his statistical shooting profile significantly.

Are these stats available anywhere?

Searched up "Ace Bailey EYBL stats", and came across this article ( https://www.on3.com/news/cooper-flagg-vs-ace-bailey-the-battle-for-on3s-no-1-player/ )

Skimmed through it, but this passage stuck out

With Ace Bailey, creating shot opportunities is not an issue. He uses footwork and a high release to be able to get a clean look on most possessions. However, his shot selection has been consistently questionable, and within that, Bailey puts little pressure on the rim in his scoring. Synergy has clipped seven of Bailey’s 23 games this season. While it is a smaller sample size, it provides a glimpse into his scoring opportunities. Sixty percent of Bailey’s shots in these games were jump shots, where he shot 37.8 percent. Of the 98 field goal attempts charted in these seven games, 60 were from three, 18 from the mid-range, and 20 at the rim.

Yikes. Sounds like nothing has changed.

Living off of tough shotmaking as an ultimate skill is really a flaw at its core because it means the player isn't creating advantages on ball.

[Da Doctor]

Im sold with Tre Johnson with the 3rd pick for now.

He's awful on defense.

[Arsenal]

I've seen a few places claiming Ace Bailey was a 90% free-throw shooter in high school. If true that helps his statistical shooting profile significantly.

Are these stats available anywhere?

Searched up "Bailey EYBL stats", and found on this article ( https://www.on3.com/news/cooper-flagg-vs-ace-bailey-the-battle-for-on3s-no-1-player/ )

Skimmed through it, but this passage stuck out like a sore thumb.

With Ace Bailey, creating shot opportunities is not an issue. He uses footwork and a high release to be able to get a clean look on most possessions. However, his shot selection has been consistently questionable, and within that, Bailey puts little pressure on the rim in his scoring. Synergy has clipped seven of Bailey’s 23 games this season. While it is a smaller sample size, it provides a glimpse into his scoring opportunities. Sixty percent of Bailey’s shots in these games were jump shots, where he shot 37.8 percent. Of the 98 field goal attempts charted in these seven games, 60 were from three, 18 from the mid-range, and 20 at the rim.

Yikes. Sounds like nothing has changed.

Tough shot as an ultimate skill is really a flaw at it's core because it means the player isn't creating advantages on ball.

Could be because his handle isn't good enough. We'd have to project a significant improvement there for him to create better shots.

[stormi]

Is projecting out NBA success via baseline indicators easier than one might think?

Here's a list of the top 25 players per the Ringer heading into the 2025 playoffs and their box plus minus in their ultimate college season
( https://nbarankings.theringer.com/ )

1. Nikola Jokic - Euro
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 9.0 BPM (FR)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Euro
4. Jayson Tatum - 7.9 BPM (FR)
5. Luka Doncic - Euro
6. Steph Curry - Pre-BPM (JR)
7. Anthony Edwards - 5.5 BPM (FR)
8. Lebron James - High School
9. Donovan Mitchell - 11.1 BPM (SO)
10. Jalen Brunson - 10.2 BPM (JR)
11. Kevin Durant - Pre-BPM, ///statistical profile likely eclipses 13.0 (FR)
12. Victor Wembanyama - Euro
13. Evan Mobley - 13.7 BPM (FR)
14. Anthony Davis - 17.2 BPM (lol) (FR)
15. Cade Cunningham - 8.3 BPM (FR)
16. Kawhi Leonard - 9.2 BPM (SO)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns - 14.3 BPM (FR)
18. Devin Booker - 9.4 BPM (FR)
19. Tyrese Haliburton - 11.7 BPM (SO)
20. Jimmy Butler - 9.4 BPM (JR)
21. Jaylen Brown - 3.6 BPM (FR)
22. Jaren Jackson - 11.7 BPM (FR)
23. Paolo Banchero - 7.7 BPM (FR)
24. Jalen Williams - 6.0 BPM (SO)
25. James Harden - Pre-BPM, ///likely 12+ (SO)

9+ BPM: 11/17 such cases
7.5+ BPM: 14/17 such cases
Unsure about Jokic & Giannis, but Wemabanyama, Curry, James, Doncic, Harden and Durant almost assuredly all would have hit 13+ as they're some of the most dominant NBA draft prospects of all time, this loosely takes us to 20/23 of the very best players in the association hitting at least 7.5 BPM as a benchmark.

The outliers?

a) Anthony Edwards - Was a polarizing prospect. Hung his hat on rim finishing and athleticism. Looking back the 3P volume & FT numbers were a good indicator but his profile was still controversial as a top pick. His year to year progression showcase him as an extreme outlier. ATG shooting season, massive playmaking leap etc

Even then, likening him to someone like Bailey is still a stretch. Ant got to the rim at will, was an elite finisher and shot well from the FT line. Ant showcased positive decision making even if raw 17.9 AST%: 12.9 TOV% (vs 8.3 AST% to 11.0 TOV% for AB). Edwards is also a 1 of 1 personality and has rare internal drive and self belief.

b) Jaylen Brown - Another raw athlete that underwent significant development post draft. Still some indicators here that gave a bit of promise to where he could get. Brown had a near 58% free throw rate at Cal. This is utterly elite, he got downhill and forced you to foul him. For some reference, Jimmy Butler is at 53% for his career, Joel Embiid is a 55%, Bailey was at 24% this season at Rutgers.

c) Jalen Williams - Role player.

And here are top 10 picks on Wasserman's latest post lotto mock ( https://www.nba.com/news/bleacher-report-latest-mock-draft-after-mavs-get-surprise-lottery-win )

1. Cooper Flagg - 16.3 BPM (lol) (FR)
2. Dylan Harper - 9.2 BPM (FR)
3. VJ Edgecombe - 11.4 BPM (FR)
4. Ace Bailey - 4.5 BPM (FR)
5. Jeremiah Fears - 5.9 BPM (FR)
6. Tre Johnson - 7.7 BPM (FR)
7. Khaman Maluach - 9.9 BPM (FR)
8. Derik Queen - 9.2 BPM (FR)
9. Noa Essengue - Euro
10. Kon Knueppel - 10.8 BPM (FR)

There's a significant outlier here not only compared to his peers, but projecting out someone that has a realistic pathway to being star. Unfortunately I see Jalen McDaniels (no, not Jaden) as an extremely plausible outcome.

Yes, and a lot of draft analysts tend to overvalue BPM. Including me and that lead me pick my horses like Franz Wagner, Walker Kessler, Keegan Murray, Cam Thomas, Sensabaugh and so forth.

But it’s just one tool, you still need to understand the game and how certain traits translate in context. Take Zhaire Smith, for example. He had a 10 BPM (i believe our FO also did put a lot of value on his BPM), but his skill set wasn’t valued to his position, nor did he have the traits of a future NBA star. I see a similar case with VJ Edgecombe right now.

To me, BPM is just an indicator of impact+box score, not a definitive measure of future success. In Bailey’s case, it suggests he might be an empty calorie scorer. Same MAYBE goes for guys like Anthony Edwards or Jaylen Brown early on, they posted inefficient scoring numbers, which BPM picked up on. But again, context matters.

Outside of rebounding, blocks and his age - Bailey is hitting negatives in every single statistical benchmark.

[Arsenal]

Im sold with Tre Johnson with the 3rd pick for now.

He's awful on defense.

We gotta project somewhere. He has ++ size for the SG position and had to carry the entire offensive load at Texas. Hopefully he can improve his defense to the point where it is adequate.

[76ciology]

Why Tre Johnson over Kon Knueppel?

I’ve said it multiple times. Tre Johnson simply has stronger alpha traits. A third of his threes come off the dribble (38 vs 3), and he hits them at a 38% clip. He also has the length and athleticism to rise up and shoot over defenderS (with his 6’10 wingspan and 32-35” vert), an essential skill for a go to scorer (or what i call as level 3 scorer).

Yes, Kneuppel finishes better in the paint, but I believe that’s largely due to Maluach’s gravity as an all-time great lob threat. He benefits from easy assists off lob actions and has his defensive weaknesses masked by playing alongside both Flagg and Maluach.

*Tre also has a promising post game and passing ability

[stormi]

I wouldn't be as disappointed with Tre because i can understand the idea. I just think he's inferior to both Edgecombe and Knueppel.

I'd probably prefer a swing on CMB or Maluach over Tre as well.

Would love to get one of Adou Thiero, Carter Bryant (impossible), Nique Clifford (impossible), Miles Bird, Noah Penda or Rasheer Fleming (impossible) at #35.

[76ciology]

Why Tre Johnson over Kon Knueppel?

Johnson smokes Knueppel in off-the-dribble 3PT shooting. Very important for a lead guard. Kneuppel profiles more as a Redick-type of off-ball shooter.

Exactly.

[76ciology]

I like how they said on the RTRS podcast that they want the 3rd overall pick, not for the talent, but for content purposes. LOL