2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Kobblehead]

Given that GMs tend to stick to the consensus, the only non-Gs that are realistic options at #3 would be Bailey, Maluach, and Queen.

Of those three, who makes the most sense? I'm thinking Bailey.

[mksp]

Morey has said repeatedly he doesn't care about position, is taking BPA.

Of course, you can believe him or not, but doesn't seem like it will factor into decision.

[Negrodamus]

I'm hurling out hot takes until someone calls me an idiot (to which I will double down). Bringing back the old times. It's been a minute since we've had the pleasure of doing this.

[Iverson Armband]

I would absolutely kill to be a fly on the wall in Camden where they are having these discussions.

[mjkvol]

Is projecting out NBA success via baseline indicators easier than one might think?

Here's a list of the top 25 players per the Ringer heading into the 2025 playoffs and their box plus minus in their ultimate college season
( https://nbarankings.theringer.com/ )

1. Nikola Jokic - Euro
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 9.0 BPM (FR)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Euro
4. Jayson Tatum - 7.9 BPM (FR)
5. Luka Doncic - Euro
6. Steph Curry - Pre-BPM (JR)
7. Anthony Edwards - 5.5 BPM (FR)
8. Lebron James - High School
9. Donovan Mitchell - 11.1 BPM (SO)
10. Jalen Brunson - 10.2 BPM (JR)
11. Kevin Durant - Pre-BPM, ///statistical profile likely eclipses 13.0 (FR)
12. Victor Wembanyama - Euro
13. Evan Mobley - 13.7 BPM (FR)
14. Anthony Davis - 17.2 BPM (lol) (FR)
15. Cade Cunningham - 8.3 BPM (FR)
16. Kawhi Leonard - 9.2 BPM (SO)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns - 14.3 BPM (FR)
18. Devin Booker - 9.4 BPM (FR)
19. Tyrese Haliburton - 11.7 BPM (SO)
20. Jimmy Butler - 9.4 BPM (JR)
21. Jaylen Brown - 3.6 BPM (FR)
22. Jaren Jackson - 11.7 BPM (FR)
23. Paolo Banchero - 7.7 BPM (FR)
24. Jalen Williams - 6.0 BPM (SO)
25. James Harden - Pre-BPM, ///likely 12+ (SO)

9+ BPM: 11/17 such cases
7.5+ BPM: 14/17 such cases
Unsure about Jokic & Giannis, but Wemabanyama, Curry, James, Doncic, Harden and Durant almost assuredly all would have hit 13+ as they're some of the most dominant NBA draft prospects of all time, this loosely takes us to 20/23 of the very best players in the association hitting at least 7.5 BPM as a benchmark.

The outliers?

a) Anthony Edwards - Was a polarizing prospect. Hung his hat on rim finishing and athleticism. Looking back the 3P volume & FT numbers were a good indicator but his profile was still controversial as a top pick. His year to year progression showcase him as an extreme outlier. ATG shooting season, massive playmaking leap etc

Even then, likening him to someone like Bailey is still a stretch. Ant got to the rim at will, was an elite finisher and shot well from the FT line. Ant showcased positive decision making even if raw 17.9 AST%: 12.9 TOV% (vs 8.3 AST% to 11.0 TOV% for AB). Edwards is also a 1 of 1 personality and has rare internal drive and self belief.

b) Jaylen Brown - Another raw athlete that underwent significant development post draft. Still some indicators here that gave a bit of promise to where he could get. Brown had a near 58% free throw rate at Cal. This is utterly elite, he got downhill and forced you to foul him. For some reference, Jimmy Butler is at 53% for his career, Joel Embiid is a 55%, Bailey was at 24% this season at Rutgers.

c) Jalen Williams - Role player.

And here are top 10 picks on Wasserman's latest post lotto mock ( https://www.nba.com/news/bleacher-report-latest-mock-draft-after-mavs-get-surprise-lottery-win )

1. Cooper Flagg - 16.3 BPM (lol) (FR)
2. Dylan Harper - 9.2 BPM (FR)
3. VJ Edgecombe - 11.4 BPM (FR)
4. Ace Bailey - 4.5 BPM (FR)
5. Jeremiah Fears - 5.9 BPM (FR)
6. Tre Johnson - 7.7 BPM (FR)
7. Khaman Maluach - 9.9 BPM (FR)
8. Derik Queen - 9.2 BPM (FR)
9. Noa Essengue - Euro
10. Kon Knueppel - 10.8 BPM (FR)

There's a significant outlier here not only compared to his peers, but projecting out someone that has a realistic pathway to being star. Unfortunately I see Jalen McDaniels (no, not Jaden) as an extremely plausible outcome.

Keep trying to talk myself into Ace because of his size, age, and upside as a shooter, but this type of post reminds me he’s just not worth it.

I'll talk myself into it after the pick is made, like I did with Springer. Even Springer's draft profile wipes Ace's but the tape was really ugly to me. Ace doesn't have the tape nor the numbers to fall back on as a crutch.

I seriously don't understand how he can have poor shooting numbers, bad self creation numbers, horrendous assist numbers, a low FT rate and be a bad shooter from the foul stripe and be locked in top three by gen-pop.

The NBA draft community is one of the least progressive subspaces on the interwebz.

Stretch or not, just give me Kon at 3 if we can't trade back and call it a day. He seems like the least risky and pretty much a lock to be at minimum the kind of role player winning teams want and need.

[Negrodamus]

Keep trying to talk myself into Ace because of his size, age, and upside as a shooter, but this type of post reminds me he’s just not worth it.

I'll talk myself into it after the pick is made, like I did with Springer. Even Springer's draft profile wipes Ace's but the tape was really ugly to me. Ace doesn't have the tape nor the numbers to fall back on as a crutch.

I seriously don't understand how he can have poor shooting numbers, bad self creation numbers, horrendous assist numbers, a low FT rate and be a bad shooter from the foul stripe and be locked in top three by gen-pop.

The NBA draft community is one of the least progressive subspaces on the interwebz.

Stretch or not, just give me Kon at 3 and call it a day. He seems like the least risky and pretty much a lock to be at minimum the kind of role player winning teams want and need.

Until he has to defend Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum and we realize he doesn't have the foot speed or length to keep up with those kinds of guys.

[Iverson Armband]

We should not be trying to draft role players at #3.

[Stanford]

Read on Twitter

[mjkvol]

I'll talk myself into it after the pick is made, like I did with Springer. Even Springer's draft profile wipes Ace's but the tape was really ugly to me. Ace doesn't have the tape nor the numbers to fall back on as a crutch.

I seriously don't understand how he can have poor shooting numbers, bad self creation numbers, horrendous assist numbers, a low FT rate and be a bad shooter from the foul stripe and be locked in top three by gen-pop.

The NBA draft community is one of the least progressive subspaces on the interwebz.

Stretch or not, just give me Kon at 3 and call it a day. He seems like the least risky and pretty much a lock to be at minimum the kind of role player winning teams want and need.

Until he has to defend Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum and we realize he doesn't have the foot speed or length to keep up with those kinds of guys.

Everyone in this draft has flaws and weaknesses that will have to be worked around. If guarding the very best wings in the league happens to be Kon's kryptonite, and at the same time he offers the all-around skills he showed at Duke, I can live with that.

[mjkvol]

We should not be trying to draft role players at #3.

I don't disagree, but when most of the alternatives include a high bust potential I'll take the solid role player.

My hope is still to trade down for more picks.

[PhillyFan11]

We should not be trying to draft role players at #3.

The issue is that if the team continues to run Jo and PG out they are going to be the focal point of the offense (along with Maxey). How do you develop a young scorer when they are going to be standing in the corner as the 4th option?

Unless there is a plan to dump Jo and/or PG drafting a raw scorer like Bailey almost seems pointless imo.

And not advocating drafting a role player at 3 either, I’d be trying like crazy to trade back to acquire more assets for the future rebuild of the roster. This roster is in a weird transitional phase that is going to take some time to get out of unfortunately because of the Jo and PG contracts

[Covi_Marsh]

Separation to get a shot off. He gets it. Subtle push offs and footwork. We can develop that over time. KD one or two dribbles and go up. He know he can’t get busy on an island like KD

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46[/x]

[Covi_Marsh]

He said creation but he best off creating with footwork and subtle pushes like Tatum vs Paul George who can dribble his way to the rim after the tragic leg break. I don’t really remember pre injury George creation. Font recall him having a great first step. Athletic for sure tho

[Covi_Marsh]

All this talk for Dylan Harper to fall to 3 and everyone will be in agreement he’s the pick lol

[zaz102]

All this talk for Dylan Harper to fall to 3 and everyone will be in agreement he’s the pick lol

Why do you think Harper will fall to 3?

[Covi_Marsh]

All this talk for Dylan Harper to fall to 3 and everyone will be in agreement he’s the pick lol

Why do you think Harper will fall to 3?

I don’t. I hope Spurs are high on Fox, Castle, Vassell and fall in love with Bailey as a shooter or the Duke center so Wemby can move to PF or VJ Edgecombe for who cares lol. Harper Fox Castle when you plan on extending Fox is a lot of guards.

[Arsenal]

I just realized that Ace Bailey will be almost 6 months younger than Jayson Tatum was when drafted. I think it's not really surprising that Bailey's numbers weren't great in college considering just how young he is. He'll be 19 years old his entire NBA rookie year.

If he went back to college as a 19-year-old sophomore while getting paid NIT money to switch to a top team, I'm sure his numbers would take a huge jump.

[Iverson Armband]

Morey just said Bailey is “absolutely going to be considered” for the pick at #3. I know that’s pretty obvious but just figured I’d share.

[HotelVitale]

We should not be trying to draft role players at #3.

Again, no one knows who’s going to play what role in the NBA. It’s very common that guys taken as big upside players end up role players, and guys taken as role player type prospects end up stars. If players translate their strengths well to the NBA they can be stars, applies to just about everything. (Can give you as many examples as you want).

We let the media talk about ‘role playing prospects’ or ‘guy who’ll come right in and do X or Y’ or whatever but feels like we’ve all been through enough of these things to know how completely unpredictable these outcomes actually are.

[Stanford]

Morey just said Bailey is “absolutely going to be considered” for the pick at #3. I know that’s pretty obvious but just figured I’d share.

Where did you hear this?