If the draft is rigged...

[billy_hoyle]

There are no facts. There is just what the NBA tells you. A fact is objective and verifiable.

The earth being a globe is a fact.

The NBA telling you the draft lottery is fair is a statement.

What a good worker bees just believing what Big Globe wants you too

If Big Globe was a billion dollar business and I had no way of going outside my house and looking out at the horizon, and there was no such thing as physics and geology and scientific disciplines, you'd have a point.

You seriously don't think a lottery machine and the correspondingly 'designed randomness', the distribution of combinations, the auditor and eye witnesses ISN'T based on scientific fundamentals?

What would be MORE objective than this?
It's a physical lottery machine with the randomized balls.

Are people out of their minds?

Like you're the one looking at the horizon and saying the earth is flat in this scenario.

[Clay Davis]

Yes. The free agents moving to large markets for their own personal gain is why you need the draft NOT to be rigged. It's also why the NBA has CHANGED the free agent bargaining power and the lux tax thresholds to create parity.

Are you actually serious right now? You know the NBA is actively changing the rules to BENEFIT small markets right?

Additionally, Orlando has historically been decent at getting Free Agents when they have had cap space (Grant Hill, Tracy McGrady). That's two of the top 10 free agents of the last 25 years.

The following players have hit free agency (some multiple times) since then (and both of those players were snagged more than 25 years ago lol): Lebron, Kawhi, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Dwayne Wade, James Harden, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Garnett.

Anyway, some owners are risk-averse. There's many such cases of owners who own teams capable of deep runs into the play-offs balking at paying the luxury tax. Why worry when someone else can take the risk and the valuation of their franchise rises with the TV deals and stuff? A lot of these owners just want to make an exit. It's great for them if they can raise the value of their franchise by a couple hundred million without having to even worry about the luxury tax or being locked into a bad contract. It's almost like a risk-free asset. All the rizz, none of the risk.

Happened in 2000. And by top 10 free agents, I think it goes without saying that it's top 10 free agents that switched teams (since we are talking about the free agent advantage of some markets despite the contractual advantage of home town teams).

That's right brother. I acknowledge your rizz. .

[Raps in 4]

What a good worker bees just believing what Big Globe wants you too

If Big Globe was a billion dollar business and I had no way of going outside my house and looking out at the horizon, and there was no such thing as physics and geology and scientific disciplines, you'd have a point.

You seriously don't think a lottery machine and the correspondingly 'designed randomness', the distribution of combinations, the auditor and eye witnesses ISN'T based on scientific fundamentals?

What would be MORE objective than this?
It's a physical lottery machine with the randomized balls.

Are people out of their minds?

Like you're the one looking at the horizon and saying the earth is flat in this scenario.

What does a room full of employees prove? The machine spits out balls and the NBA then tells us which combinations belonged to which teams. The winners can be decided after the balls are spit out. The entire video could be recorded at literally any point in time because it isn't live. What is the role of the auditors? No financial records are being audited.

[Raps in 4]

I was just catching up on the Hasan Piker situation, and it made me think of this debate.

Hasan is an American citizen and a prominent leftist commentator and media personality. He was recently detained and questioned about his political beliefs by border agents after he flew into Chicago.

Hasan accused the Trump administration of deliberately targeting him in an attempt to sow fear among dissenters.

The Trump administration released a public statement saying that these types of detentions are entirely random and that Hasan was randomly selected for questioning.

At this point, we could take the word of the Trump administration at face value, because what they say is plausible. Trump did swear an oath to uphold the rule of law, after all. Or, we could take the facts of the situation in context and arrive at the conclusion that the Trump administration is lying.

Everyone who maintains that the NBA lottery isn't rigged should categorically deny Hasan's side of the story here. There is no reason to believe that a democratically elected government would lie about their motivations to detain someone. Targeting individuals for detention would be both morally wrong and illegal (the NBA rigging the draft would only be morally wrong), therefore, it cannot be the case. Suggesting that the government could be doing this would be engaging in conspiratorial thinking.

I hope everyone can see how ridiculous it is to trust the word of unaccountable elites, but I'm not holding my breath. We live in a time when critical thinking is discouraged.

[RoteSchroder]

You seriously don't think a lottery machine and the correspondingly 'designed randomness', the distribution of combinations, the auditor and eye witnesses ISN'T based on scientific fundamentals?

What would be MORE objective than this?
It's a physical lottery machine with the randomized balls.

Are people out of their minds?

Like you're the one looking at the horizon and saying the earth is flat in this scenario.

what if the resulting lotto balls didn't show randomness

It's not just the clustering within one draft (which could happen by chance), but the same pattern occurring through multiple drafts

ChatGPT and DeepSeek both say these cluster patterns are non-random and it likely wasn't a random draw:

underline = overlapping numbers

2015 draft
1 3 7 6 Wolves
6 8 4 11 Lakers --> isolated
13 1 6 9 Wolves
7 2 13 10 Philly

2017 draft
1 7 9 10 Boston
1 2 6 10 Boston
1 2 8 9 Boston (1.56% chance for 3 in a row)
3 5 12 14 Lakers --> isolated
7 8 9 10 Philly

2018 draft
1 6 9 12 Suns
1 3 11 13 Suns
1 4 5 12 Suns (1.56% chance for 3 in a row)
6, 7, 8, 14 SAC --> isolated
4 5 6 12 Atlanta

Can't be 100% sure without each team's number combinations though.

Compare the numbers for 2017 and 2018 alone, you can find the same statistically anomalies or low probabilities in both drafts.
E.g.
2017
1, 1, 1
10, 10, 10

2018
1, 1, 1
12, 12, 12

With the magnet theory, Boston/Philly and Suns/Atlanta would be drawing the same pool of 9 numbers (yielding only 126 possible combinations).

I don't even mind if the draft is rigged, the gambling refs are more annoying.

[YogurtProducer]

Just let the good worker bees keep on buzzing about their day.

Don't ever question anything and take everything at face value that big money tells you is the straight and arrow. Contrary to what the religious poster was saying about our side, it certainly makes for a much simpler life on THEIR side.

LOL no one said take everything at face value or not question anything.

You can question the lottery, immediately look into the facts of the matter, and realize it is just randomness and a hell of a coincidence.

But just because you don't ignore facts doesn't make you a sheep or something.

There are no facts. There is just what the NBA tells you. A fact is objective and verifiable.

The earth being a globe is a fact.

The NBA telling you the draft lottery is fair is a statement.

The NBA, 14 franchises, and an accounting firm all watching and overseeing the process is about as close to "fact" as you can get.

Hell of a lot more evidence there is no rigging than there is, yet you seem to think we should default to "rigged"? Tell me, what "evidence" is there that the draft is rigged?

Glad you expose yourself here though so I can remember to ignore your takes on literally anything though

[YogurtProducer]

You seriously don't think a lottery machine and the correspondingly 'designed randomness', the distribution of combinations, the auditor and eye witnesses ISN'T based on scientific fundamentals?

What would be MORE objective than this?
It's a physical lottery machine with the randomized balls.

Are people out of their minds?

Like you're the one looking at the horizon and saying the earth is flat in this scenario.

what if the resulting lotto balls didn't show randomness

It's not just the clustering within one draft (which could happen by chance), but the same pattern occurring through multiple drafts

ChatGPT and DeepSeek both say these cluster patterns are non-random and it likely wasn't a random draw:

underline = overlapping numbers

2015 draft
1 3 7 6 Wolves
6 8 4 11 Lakers --> isolated
13 1 6 9 Wolves
7 2 13 10 Philly

2017 draft
1 7 9 10 Boston
1 2 6 10 Boston
1 2 8 9 Boston (1.56% chance for 3 in a row)
3 5 12 14 Lakers --> isolated
7 8 9 10 Philly

2018 draft
1 6 9 12 Suns
1 3 11 13 Suns
1 4 5 12 Suns (1.56% chance for 3 in a row)
6, 7, 8, 14 SAC --> isolated
4 5 6 12 Atlanta

Can't be 100% sure without each team's number combinations though.

Compare the numbers for 2017 and 2018 alone, you can find the same statistically anomalies or low probabilities in both drafts.
E.g.
2017
1, 1, 1
10, 10, 10

2018
1, 1, 1
12, 12, 12

With the magnet theory, Boston/Philly and Suns/Atlanta would be drawing the same pool of 9 numbers (yielding only 126 possible combinations).

I don't even mind if the draft is rigged, the gambling refs are more annoying.

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

[Raps in 4]

LOL no one said take everything at face value or not question anything.

You can question the lottery, immediately look into the facts of the matter, and realize it is just randomness and a hell of a coincidence.

But just because you don't ignore facts doesn't make you a sheep or something.

There are no facts. There is just what the NBA tells you. A fact is objective and verifiable.

The earth being a globe is a fact.

The NBA telling you the draft lottery is fair is a statement.

The NBA, 14 franchises, and an accounting firm all watching and overseeing the process is about as close to "fact" as you can get.

Hell of a lot more evidence there is no rigging than there is, yet you seem to think we should default to "rigged"? Tell me, what "evidence" is there that the draft is rigged?

Glad you expose yourself here though so I can remember to ignore your takes on literally anything though

What do you mean by "other" franchises? All NBA franchises are part of the same business. They all engage in revenue sharing and they all receive payment from the same TV deals.

The accounting firm is acting in a performance on behalf of the client that hired them. There is no financial transaction taking place that requires an audit. The draft lottery requires nothing because it's an arbitrary entertainment event created by a private business.

[RoteSchroder]

You seriously don't think a lottery machine and the correspondingly 'designed randomness', the distribution of combinations, the auditor and eye witnesses ISN'T based on scientific fundamentals?

What would be MORE objective than this?
It's a physical lottery machine with the randomized balls.

Are people out of their minds?

Like you're the one looking at the horizon and saying the earth is flat in this scenario.

what if the resulting lotto balls didn't show randomness

It's not just the clustering within one draft (which could happen by chance), but the same pattern occurring through multiple drafts



Compare the numbers for 2017 and 2018 alone, you can find the same statistically anomalies or low probabilities in both drafts.
E.g.
2017
1, 1, 1
10, 10, 10

2018
1, 1, 1
12, 12, 12

With the magnet theory, Boston/Philly and Suns/Atlanta would be drawing the same pool of 9 numbers (yielding only 126 possible combinations).

I don't even mind if the draft is rigged, the gambling refs are more annoying.

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

[billy_hoyle]

what if the resulting lotto balls didn't show randomness

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

Ask ChatGpt if the draft is rigged, and if any evidence exists to support a statistical claim.

[billy_hoyle]

I was just catching up on the Hasan Piker situation, and it made me think of this debate.

Hasan is an American citizen and a prominent leftist commentator and media personality. He was recently detained and questioned about his political beliefs by border agents after he flew into Chicago.

Hasan accused the Trump administration of deliberately targeting him in an attempt to sow fear among dissenters.

The Trump administration released a public statement saying that these types of detentions are entirely random and that Hasan was randomly selected for questioning.

At this point, we could take the word of the Trump administration at face value, because what they say is plausible. Trump did swear an oath to uphold the rule of law, after all. Or, we could take the facts of the situation in context and arrive at the conclusion that the Trump administration is lying.

Everyone who maintains that the NBA lottery isn't rigged should categorically deny Hasan's side of the story here. There is no reason to believe that a democratically elected government would lie about their motivations to detain someone. Targeting individuals for detention would be both morally wrong and illegal (the NBA rigging the draft would only be morally wrong), therefore, it cannot be the case. Suggesting that the government could be doing this would be engaging in conspiratorial thinking.

I hope everyone can see how ridiculous it is to trust the word of unaccountable elites, but I'm not holding my breath. We live in a time when critical thinking is discouraged.

Critical thinking is dying.

This post is evidence of that.

This is false equivalence at its finest.

The Trump administration has clearly increased border security. It's literally one of his their main policy positions. This means there will be much more scrutiny at border crossings. An increase in the number of randomized detentions and questioning. This is meant to sow fear and reduce the number of political activists coming into the USA (among many things).

Trumps administration is saying it's still random. He's not saying the random incident isn't ratcheted up 1000% in frequency.

If you don't understand this nuance...no wonder you fall for this sort of rigged conspiracy theory BS. You fall for the MSNBC BS too.

[RoteSchroder]

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

Ask ChatGpt if the draft is rigged, and if any evidence exists to support a statistical claim.

I did, it gave me one in 100 million odds after accounting for dependencies between each oddity.

Conclusion

The observed anomalies cannot reasonably occur by chance. The system is either:

Non-random by design (e.g., rigged selection).
Highly biased (e.g., physical/digital tampering).

Recommendations:

Immediate audit of the contraption and draw process.
Exclude suspicious draws from official use.
Investigate past draws for similar patterns.

This is statistical proof of manipulation.

[billy_hoyle]

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

Ask ChatGpt if the draft is rigged, and if any evidence exists to support a statistical claim.

I did, it gave me one in 100 million odds after accounting for dependencies between each oddity.

Conclusion

The observed anomalies cannot reasonably occur by chance. The system is either:

Non-random by design (e.g., rigged selection).
Highly biased (e.g., physical/digital tampering).

Recommendations:

Immediate audit of the contraption and draw process.
Exclude suspicious draws from official use.
Investigate past draws for similar patterns.

This is statistical proof of manipulation.

Weird I asked it, and it concluded no such evidence exists.

[basketballto]

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

Ask ChatGpt if the draft is rigged, and if any evidence exists to support a statistical claim.

I did, it gave me one in 100 million odds after accounting for dependencies between each oddity.

Conclusion

The observed anomalies cannot reasonably occur by chance. The system is either:

Non-random by design (e.g., rigged selection).
Highly biased (e.g., physical/digital tampering).

Recommendations:

Immediate audit of the contraption and draw process.
Exclude suspicious draws from official use.
Investigate past draws for similar patterns.

This is statistical proof of manipulation.

Did you follow up mentioning how a once in 50 years chance (2%) happened 5 times over the last 40 years?

Ask what are the odds that Lucas gets traded for an aging Anthony Davis in secret without letting any other team know or offer anything.

[RoteSchroder]

Ask ChatGpt if the draft is rigged, and if any evidence exists to support a statistical claim.

I did, it gave me one in 100 million odds after accounting for dependencies between each oddity.

Conclusion

The observed anomalies cannot reasonably occur by chance. The system is either:

Non-random by design (e.g., rigged selection).
Highly biased (e.g., physical/digital tampering).

Recommendations:

Immediate audit of the contraption and draw process.
Exclude suspicious draws from official use.
Investigate past draws for similar patterns.

This is statistical proof of manipulation.

Weird I asked it, and it concluded no such evidence exists.

So what odds did it give you?

or did you just ask a generalized question. Doesn't seem like you know how ChatGPT works.

did you feed it:
1) the lotto numbers
2) respective winners
3) explain how the lotto ball system works
4) ask it to calculate the odds of low probability anomalies occurring in both drafts

To take away bias, don't even mention the NBA.

[RoteSchroder]

Did you follow up mentioning how a once in 50 years chance (2%) happened 5 times over the last 40 years?

Ask what are the odds that Lucas gets traded for an aging Anthony Davis in secret without letting any other team know or offer anything.

1st question: 0.13%

Rarity: A 0.13% chance means this is unlikely but not impossible under randomness.

Expected value: For 40 trials at 2% success rate, you’d expect 0.8 wins (so 5 wins is 6.25× higher than expected).

Red flags:

If this is a lottery or game, audit for fairness.

If natural process, check for biases or non-random clustering.

Latter question: probably rhetorical, but you can't make statistical odds from that

[basketballto]

You seriously don't think a lottery machine and the correspondingly 'designed randomness', the distribution of combinations, the auditor and eye witnesses ISN'T based on scientific fundamentals?

What would be MORE objective than this?
It's a physical lottery machine with the randomized balls.

Are people out of their minds?

Like you're the one looking at the horizon and saying the earth is flat in this scenario.

what if the resulting lotto balls didn't show randomness

It's not just the clustering within one draft (which could happen by chance), but the same pattern occurring through multiple drafts



Compare the numbers for 2017 and 2018 alone, you can find the same statistically anomalies or low probabilities in both drafts.
E.g.
2017
1, 1, 1
10, 10, 10

2018
1, 1, 1
12, 12, 12

With the magnet theory, Boston/Philly and Suns/Atlanta would be drawing the same pool of 9 numbers (yielding only 126 possible combinations).

I don't even mind if the draft is rigged, the gambling refs are more annoying.

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

This has happened 5 times in the last 40 years when it should only happen once every 50 years at 2%. The chance this is random is very low. These are the easy to see and verify numbers.

If I rolled a 50 sided dice 40 times and got the number 44 5 times those would be the dice odds.

[billy_hoyle]

I did, it gave me one in 100 million odds after accounting for dependencies between each oddity.

Weird I asked it, and it concluded no such evidence exists.

So what odds did it give you?

or did you just ask a generalized question. Doesn't seem like you know how ChatGPT works.

did you feed it:
1) the lotto numbers
2) respective winners
3) explain how the lotto ball system works
4) ask it to calculate the odds of low probability anomalies occurring in both drafts

To take away bias, don't even mention the NBA.

So you are giving it two drafts worth of data, and the above listed info?

How does the lotto ball system work? What exactly did you put into the tool?

I'm curious

[RoteSchroder]

Weird I asked it, and it concluded no such evidence exists.

So what odds did it give you?

or did you just ask a generalized question. Doesn't seem like you know how ChatGPT works.

did you feed it:
1) the lotto numbers
2) respective winners
3) explain how the lotto ball system works
4) ask it to calculate the odds of low probability anomalies occurring in both drafts

To take away bias, don't even mention the NBA.

So you are giving it two drafts worth of data, and the above listed info?

How does the lotto ball system work? What exactly did you put into the tool?

I'm curious

Assuming no anomalies exist in other drafts and you add other clean drafts, it does not rule out 2017/2018 from being outliers. It gives me three possible conclusions:
Anomalies in Sets 1 & 2 could be isolated incidents (e.g., temporary tampering);
The system is usually fair but was tampered with in Sets 1 & 2.;
The original anomalies are too extreme to dismiss as luck.

The problem is that there are similarly patterned anomalies in 2015, 2016 and 2019, not just 2018 and 2017. For example, in 2016 which I didn't list before:

1 5 10 9 Philly
1 2 7 9 Philly
2 3 7 14 Lakers
3 7 4 9 Boston

[nikster]

I did, it gave me one in 100 million odds after accounting for dependencies between each oddity.

Weird I asked it, and it concluded no such evidence exists.

So what odds did it give you?

or did you just ask a generalized question. Doesn't seem like you know how ChatGPT works.

did you feed it:
1) the lotto numbers
2) respective winners
3) explain how the lotto ball system works
4) ask it to calculate the odds of low probability anomalies occurring in both drafts

To take away bias, don't even mention the NBA.

Chat GPT is a language learning model. It's not an expert in probability