NBA DRAFT LOTTERY GT, 12 MAY 2025, 6 PM CT, CHICAGO, ESPN

[chefo]

The league is rigged, but not the way most fans think. It's purely in the entertainment business; it just happens to be sports-related.

Its job is to create media superstars that can sell TV adds, $150 bleacher tickets, and shoes. That's about it.

In the modern day of social media and 24-hour newsflow, it doesn't matter if the next hyped-up star lives in Alaska or in NY. They just need constant buzz, WWE-style, always and at all times. I know a couple of upper-tier NBA guys. They each have a PR guy/gal and a publicist on the payroll.

The only thing the NBA can't do is boring, which is why you had all the rule changes in the early 2000s.

[Michael Jackson]

The rigged thing is always hard for me to get fully behind, because then Chicago, NY, and LA would have won so many more lotteries over the years.

Take out the lottery. Which team is a bigger market - 06 Miami Wade Heat or the Mavericks - Dwade free throw attempts? 02 Lakers vs Kings - obviously Lakers in this, but the gaem was rigged for Kobe/Shaq. I am saying they are selective on what they do. For example 2011 Bulls vs Heat - Bulls much larger market but the Heat got many calls due to the ultimate superteam. Think it would be a lesser issue if not for the extremely shady trade of Luka to Lakers, or just what they got in return for Luka. Literally know one else makes the worst superstar trade in history of sports like that. At least 15-20 teams would have made better offers to the Mavs while getting them a defender and many more draft picks.

But we are talking specifically about the lottery. If there's nonsense going on with that system, why allow Wemby to end up in San Antonio? The league never did well when the Spurs won. Why would you want Zion on the Pelicans?

The kickback from the local restaurants was huge for NBA league money.

[Michael Jackson]

It’s more than that. The organization needs new Ownership. They hired this FO. It’s time for people to stop paying for a bad product.

Yea its been more stupid than unlucky. Gar/pax and AKME combined to get us Wendell Carter & Patrick Williams when they could have gotten us SGA & Haliburton.

Sure we haven't had good lottery luck, but our awful drafting has been more worse than that!

And I don't even think it's just incompetent drafting...they simply never prioritized talent they prioritzed winning now. They're in perpetual "competitive right now" mode to maximize this season's Ws. AK hasn't changed from Gar or Paxson, 3 straight org heads with the same philosophy just different methods.

Paxson said point blank McDermott was drafted as an older player who fulfilled a need, not the draft pick with the highest potential. He said he also had to draft someone that Thibs would actually play in the rotation.

Patrick was drafted as a defensive specialist because Vuc at center needed a PF defender, and Lauri was the opposite of that. They were looking for a roleplayer, someone like Thad Young or Daniel Theis but younger.

Ultimately it all falls upon ownership and who they hire as the head of the org. If they keep hiring decision makers whose only goal is maximizing the Ws in the current season, there will never be a change in Chicago. Even in the end of season press event when Crowley asked point blank why we aren't rebuilding through the draft, AK said that's a long process and Chicago will be taking shortcuts and not the full process of rebuilding.

Patrick was drafted before the Vuc trade and the Vuc trade was mid season. Not saying AK isn’t a fool though.

[_txchilibowl_]

The league is rigged, but not the way most fans think. It's purely in the entertainment business; it just happens to be sports-related.

Its job is to create media superstars that can sell TV adds, $150 bleacher tickets, and shoes. That's about it.

In the modern day of social media and 24-hour newsflow, it doesn't matter if the next hyped-up star lives in Alaska or in NY. They just need constant buzz, WWE-style, always and at all times. I know a couple of upper-tier NBA guys. They each have a PR guy/gal and a publicist on the payroll.

The only thing the NBA can't do is boring, which is why you had all the rule changes in the early 2000s.

I don't follow. How is that rigging? Just sounds like promotion which every company does.

[Dominator83]

Yea its been more stupid than unlucky. Gar/pax and AKME combined to get us Wendell Carter & Patrick Williams when they could have gotten us SGA & Haliburton.

Sure we haven't had good lottery luck, but our awful drafting has been more worse than that!

And I don't even think it's just incompetent drafting...they simply never prioritized talent they prioritzed winning now. They're in perpetual "competitive right now" mode to maximize this season's Ws. AK hasn't changed from Gar or Paxson, 3 straight org heads with the same philosophy just different methods.

Paxson said point blank McDermott was drafted as an older player who fulfilled a need, not the draft pick with the highest potential. He said he also had to draft someone that Thibs would actually play in the rotation.

Patrick was drafted as a defensive specialist because Vuc at center needed a PF defender, and Lauri was the opposite of that. They were looking for a roleplayer, someone like Thad Young or Daniel Theis but younger.

Ultimately it all falls upon ownership and who they hire as the head of the org. If they keep hiring decision makers whose only goal is maximizing the Ws in the current season, there will never be a change in Chicago. Even in the end of season press event when Crowley asked point blank why we aren't rebuilding through the draft, AK said that's a long process and Chicago will be taking shortcuts and not the full process of rebuilding.

Patrick was drafted before the Vuc trade and the Vuc trade was mid season. Not saying AK isn’t a fool though.

Plus, i don't think either of those picks were due to "win-now over later" purposes. 2018 we were 1 year into a rebuild, with a team nowhere near ready to be competitive anytime soon. Gar/pax was so scared of botching the pick that they went with the safest, high-floor low-ceiling player there was in the draft. When we needed to be swinging for the fences. Admittedly, i wasn't thinking SGA but i was thinking MPJ (though i would have still went SGA or Bridges over Wendell. I just knew that wendell screamed "average starter", would have taken any top 15 guy over him). is MPJ a superstar? no. But hes had a much better career than Wendell, plus also had a LOT more trade value at the time we traded Wendell. Like if we were still trading with Orlando for Vuc, MPJ by himself would have gotten it done, and we keep our two picks.

2020, AKME had just taken over a garbage situation, and everything was under evaluation. They didn't pick Patrick because they think he "fits in with the rest of the starting unit". They picked him because they had this delusion that they were outsmarting everyone and found the next kawhi Leonard

Both regimes sucked at drafting (Gar-pax after 2011). Thats why we never had any good young players that were strong assets next to Jimmy Butler to either run alongside him or use to get someone good in a trade to pair with him, and its also why the post Jimmy rebuilds have failed miserably. Poor drafting . Our ownership sucks ass no doubt about it, but JR wasn't Viveking these into drafting these busts.

[Midwest219]

The league is rigged, but not the way most fans think. It's purely in the entertainment business; it just happens to be sports-related.

Its job is to create media superstars that can sell TV adds, $150 bleacher tickets, and shoes. That's about it.

In the modern day of social media and 24-hour newsflow, it doesn't matter if the next hyped-up star lives in Alaska or in NY. They just need constant buzz, WWE-style, always and at all times. I know a couple of upper-tier NBA guys. They each have a PR guy/gal and a publicist on the payroll.

The only thing the NBA can't do is boring, which is why you had all the rule changes in the early 2000s.

I don't follow. How is that rigging? Just sounds like promotion which every company does.

You having dinner with Adam Silver or something?

[Michael Jackson]

And I don't even think it's just incompetent drafting...they simply never prioritized talent they prioritzed winning now. They're in perpetual "competitive right now" mode to maximize this season's Ws. AK hasn't changed from Gar or Paxson, 3 straight org heads with the same philosophy just different methods.

Paxson said point blank McDermott was drafted as an older player who fulfilled a need, not the draft pick with the highest potential. He said he also had to draft someone that Thibs would actually play in the rotation.

Patrick was drafted as a defensive specialist because Vuc at center needed a PF defender, and Lauri was the opposite of that. They were looking for a roleplayer, someone like Thad Young or Daniel Theis but younger.

Ultimately it all falls upon ownership and who they hire as the head of the org. If they keep hiring decision makers whose only goal is maximizing the Ws in the current season, there will never be a change in Chicago. Even in the end of season press event when Crowley asked point blank why we aren't rebuilding through the draft, AK said that's a long process and Chicago will be taking shortcuts and not the full process of rebuilding.

Patrick was drafted before the Vuc trade and the Vuc trade was mid season. Not saying AK isn’t a fool though.

Plus, i don't think either of those picks were due to "win-now over later" purposes. 2018 we were 1 year into a rebuild, with a team nowhere near ready to be competitive anytime soon. Gar/pax was so scared of botching the pick that they went with the safest, high-floor low-ceiling player there was in the draft. When we needed to be swinging for the fences. Admittedly, i wasn't thinking SGA but i was thinking MPJ (though i would have still went SGA or Bridges over Wendell. I just knew that wendell screamed "average starter", would have taken any top 15 guy over him). is MPJ a superstar? no. But hes had a much better career than Wendell, plus also had a LOT more trade value at the time we traded Wendell. Like if we were still trading with Orlando for Vuc, MPJ by himself would have gotten it done, and we keep our two picks.

2020, AKME had just taken over a garbage situation, and everything was under evaluation. They didn't pick Patrick because they think he "fits in with the rest of the starting unit". They picked him because they had this delusion that they were outsmarting everyone and found the next kawhi Leonard

Both regimes sucked at drafting (Gar-pax after 2011). Thats why we never had any good young players that were strong assets next to Jimmy Butler to either run alongside him or use to get someone good in a trade to pair with him, and its also why the post Jimmy rebuilds have failed miserably. Poor drafting . Our ownership sucks ass no doubt about it, but JR wasn't Viveking these into drafting these busts.

Patrick was definitely the swing for the fences high upside guy in a weak draft. If Gar was still there, nothing in the world would convince we don’t take Hali. We also don’t trade for Vuc and may end up with Franz potentially, and at least would have kept 1 or 2 of Lauri, Gafford or Carter.

Doug was inexcusable because they traded up for him and the stated claim was the team needed shooting. Still was never high ceiling and absolutely not worth trading up for.

Nit sure AK drafts for need, he is just kinda lucky certain things fell to him like Matas. Dalen Terry’s happen but it was still a head scratcher at the time.

[Michael Jackson]

Listening to Zach Lowe's new podcast. He was in the secret room with the GMs etc. for the lottery ball drawing. All the worst teams had all the low numbers. The balls are numbered 1 through 14, and they draw four balls. Each combination of 4 is assigned to a team.

They draw for the top pick first - Cooper Flagg.

The first ball is a 10. The second ball is a 14. Murmuring. Oh crap, one Wizards guy says to a Jazz guy. This isn't good. The third ball is an 11. Everything is on the table at that point - there's 20-30 seconds where almost anyone can still win, and everyone is just sitting there in shock at all the high numbers.

If the last ball is a 1, the Wizards get Flagg. If it's a 2, the Jazz win. 3 - Brooklyn wins. 4 - the Raptors get Flagg. If it's a 6, Blazers win. If it's a 7, the Mavs win. 8? The Bulls get Cooper Flagg. 9 - Sacramento wins. If the last ball is a 5, a 12, or a 13, the Spurs win for the second time in three years. (Edit - FriedRise's chart below disagrees and says a 12, and it implies 13, would have gone to Atlanta. Dunno. Looks like maybe SA controls at least one of ATL's picks from a quick google.)

Up comes 7. That's how close we came - 8 vs. 7 on the last ball (in addition to the coin flip.)

The whole room freezes while everyone figures out who won.

He says it's impolite to erupt, but there was just widespread laughter afterward. He goes on to describe the subsequent drama, people trying to shuffle through papers to figure out real time which teams have jumped up or fallen down in the order, etc. (Seems like they could have their IT or data analysis people whip up an app or a spreadsheet to make that easier, but I guess they don't.)

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3KnSbt5TFItQLS4v2Sq8jK?si=JzlN8b9xQuiSpcdUZazuNw @ 20:22.

So the Bulls were one number off of a 4 number combination.

[GoBlue72391]

Take out the lottery. Which team is a bigger market - 06 Miami Wade Heat or the Mavericks - Dwade free throw attempts? 02 Lakers vs Kings - obviously Lakers in this, but the gaem was rigged for Kobe/Shaq. I am saying they are selective on what they do. For example 2011 Bulls vs Heat - Bulls much larger market but the Heat got many calls due to the ultimate superteam. Think it would be a lesser issue if not for the extremely shady trade of Luka to Lakers, or just what they got in return for Luka. Literally know one else makes the worst superstar trade in history of sports like that. At least 15-20 teams would have made better offers to the Mavs while getting them a defender and many more draft picks.

But we are talking specifically about the lottery. If there's nonsense going on with that system, why allow Wemby to end up in San Antonio? The league never did well when the Spurs won. Why would you want Zion on the Pelicans?

The kickback from the local restaurants was huge for NBA league money.

All them big ole San Antonio women single handedly payrolling the league.

[kodo]

Patrick was definitely the swing for the fences high upside guy in a weak draft. If Gar was still there, nothing in the world would convince we don’t take Hali. We also don’t trade for Vuc and may end up with Franz potentially, and at least would have kept 1 or 2 of Lauri, Gafford or Carter.

If Patrick was a high upside pick by AK, the org's evaluation is wildly off. Williams couldn't even start for his college team, had no ball creation ability, average speed, average size, wasn't a great 3P shooter. Comps had him somewhere between Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris, Marvin Williams. Patrick did improve greatly in the area of 3P shooting in the NBA, but other than that I have no idea why AK would think he would have more upside than someone like Isaac Okoro. And upside picks were available like Avdija even if they hated Haliburton for whatever reason.

Either their talent evaluation is terrible to think Williams had the best chance of being a star at #4, or they were drafting for high floor roleplayers. Either way a waste of a #4 pick. But AK started that draft by saying he hopes to never pick that high again so I'm not surprised he didn't give the pick much thought.

Even if everyone here gets our wish and AK is fired, wouldn't the ownership group just hire another VP whose plan is to go for the play-in and draft around ~15 and just tread water for the next 5 years? The next guy will just do it in a different way.

[sco]

Patrick was definitely the swing for the fences high upside guy in a weak draft. If Gar was still there, nothing in the world would convince we don’t take Hali. We also don’t trade for Vuc and may end up with Franz potentially, and at least would have kept 1 or 2 of Lauri, Gafford or Carter.

If Patrick was a high upside pick by AK, the org's evaluation is wildly off. Williams couldn't even start for his college team, had no ball creation ability, average speed, average size, wasn't a great 3P shooter. Comps had him somewhere between Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris, Marvin Williams. Patrick did improve greatly in the area of 3P shooting in the NBA, but other than that I have no idea why AK would think he would have more upside than someone like Isaac Okoro. And upside picks were available like Avdija even if they hated Haliburton for whatever reason.

Either their talent evaluation is terrible to think Williams had the best chance of being a star at #4, or they were drafting for high floor roleplayers. Either way a waste of a #4 pick. But AK started that draft by saying he hopes to never pick that high again so I'm not surprised he didn't give the pick much thought.

Even if everyone here gets our wish and AK is fired, wouldn't the ownership group just hire another VP whose plan is to go for the play-in and draft around ~15 and just tread water for the next 5 years? The next guy will just do it in a different way.

I would love to have nabbed Hali instead, but I'm not mad at the PWill pick. They went for a high ceiling guy, but it was a high-risk/high-reward swing that missed. Those usually miss, but if you hit, it changes the franchise trajectory. I got more upset when the prior regime went for perceived high floor guys in Carter and Douggy.

[dougthonus]

The league is rigged, but not the way most fans think. It's purely in the entertainment business; it just happens to be sports-related.

Its job is to create media superstars that can sell TV adds, $150 bleacher tickets, and shoes. That's about it.

In the modern day of social media and 24-hour newsflow, it doesn't matter if the next hyped-up star lives in Alaska or in NY. They just need constant buzz, WWE-style, always and at all times. I know a couple of upper-tier NBA guys. They each have a PR guy/gal and a publicist on the payroll.

The only thing the NBA can't do is boring, which is why you had all the rule changes in the early 2000s.

I don't follow. How is that rigging? Just sounds like promotion which every company does.

You having dinner with Adam Silver or something?

Which part do you disagree with? That Adam Silver is marketing the NBA? Hell yes he is. I mean that's _literally_ his job to create league growth. The NBA has been fantastically successful at it as well. Based on the recent research I did on the Bulls growth, they've averaged 18-20% per year for 40 years. An insane return on investment.

[Stratmaster]

Patrick was definitely the swing for the fences high upside guy in a weak draft. If Gar was still there, nothing in the world would convince we don’t take Hali. We also don’t trade for Vuc and may end up with Franz potentially, and at least would have kept 1 or 2 of Lauri, Gafford or Carter.

If Patrick was a high upside pick by AK, the org's evaluation is wildly off. Williams couldn't even start for his college team, had no ball creation ability, average speed, average size, wasn't a great 3P shooter. Comps had him somewhere between Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris, Marvin Williams. Patrick did improve greatly in the area of 3P shooting in the NBA, but other than that I have no idea why AK would think he would have more upside than someone like Isaac Okoro. And upside picks were available like Avdija even if they hated Haliburton for whatever reason.

Either their talent evaluation is terrible to think Williams had the best chance of being a star at #4, or they were drafting for high floor roleplayers. Either way a waste of a #4 pick. But AK started that draft by saying he hopes to never pick that high again so I'm not surprised he didn't give the pick much thought.

Even if everyone here gets our wish and AK is fired, wouldn't the ownership group just hire another VP whose plan is to go for the play-in and draft around ~15 and just tread water for the next 5 years? The next guy will just do it in a different way.

I would love to have nabbed Hali instead, but I'm not mad at the PWill pick. They went for a high ceiling guy, but it was a high-risk/high-reward swing that missed. Those usually miss, but if you hit, it changes the franchise trajectory. I got more upset when the prior regime went for perceived high floor guys in Carter and Douggy.

There was never anything about Pwill that indicated he would have changed the franchise trajectory had he "hit". At least nothing you couldn't say about any random dude who is 6'7" with a 6'11" wingspan. THAT is what everyone was banking on. Not every long-armed person is a franchise changing basketball player.

[Michael Jackson]

Patrick was definitely the swing for the fences high upside guy in a weak draft. If Gar was still there, nothing in the world would convince we don’t take Hali. We also don’t trade for Vuc and may end up with Franz potentially, and at least would have kept 1 or 2 of Lauri, Gafford or Carter.

If Patrick was a high upside pick by AK, the org's evaluation is wildly off. Williams couldn't even start for his college team, had no ball creation ability, average speed, average size, wasn't a great 3P shooter. Comps had him somewhere between Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris, Marvin Williams. Patrick did improve greatly in the area of 3P shooting in the NBA, but other than that I have no idea why AK would think he would have more upside than someone like Isaac Okoro. And upside picks were available like Avdija even if they hated Haliburton for whatever reason.

Either their talent evaluation is terrible to think Williams had the best chance of being a star at #4, or they were drafting for high floor roleplayers. Either way a waste of a #4 pick. But AK started that draft by saying he hopes to never pick that high again so I'm not surprised he didn't give the pick much thought.

Even if everyone here gets our wish and AK is fired, wouldn't the ownership group just hire another VP whose plan is to go for the play-in and draft around ~15 and just tread water for the next 5 years? The next guy will just do it in a different way.

That draft was pretty meh and a lot missed on Hali (Gar would not have, his core values would have forced him to take him) and Patrick was in the exact same spot a year earlier that Scottie Barnes was a year later. He also was a 6th man on that team. Barnes panned out better. The pickw as always meh and it was a reach but people saw "potential" in him. It was not the conservative route is the point. Still an awful pick but the reasoning was not to fill a need it was a roll of the dice move. It was an awful roll of course. To answer the last question OMG yeah I do not expect anything different. Unless there is proof the guy they get is counter to their culture it will be more of the same, maybe worse (as AK was to GarPax) . We can still dig the grave deeper!

[WindyCityBorn]

We have no future unless Matas becomes a high tier star. This sucks.

and even if he does, we don't have anything around him.

I think Giddey is a great core piece assuming his improved shooting continues, but after those two you’re right.

Just depressing to be a Bulls fan.

[dice]

they tend not to do foolish things that would cost them 100x more money if discovered

conspiracy theorists tend not to have any idea how it could actually be carried out. EVERY PERSON approached would have to stay silent whether agreeing to participate or not. which is a goddamn stupid risk to take

- cheapskate donald sterling's clippers won the lotto three times

- small market bucks won lotto twice. as did the t-wolves. as did the pels. as did the pathetic bullets/wizards

- the hawks won it last year w/ 3% chance. what a destination

- the jersey nets won it twice. what a destination

- any particular reason the kings won in '89?

- the magic won it FOUR times, only one of which has a credible conspiracy motive (pairing webber w/ shaq)

- this year is the first time the mavs have EVER improved their position in the lotto. on the flip side, the small-market spurs landed HOF talents tim duncan, david robinson AND wemby. now the league pivots to choose the mavs rather than a wemby/flagg pairing? ok

- was the league really eager to kickstart the pistons when they won the lotto in 2021? did they change their minds when the team fell to #5 in 3 consecutive lottos despite winning a total of only 64 games?

it's random, folks

As much as I wished It was random and things were fair... I ask one simple question.. why is the selection not televised? In today's climate where literally every thing is on screen why is it the nba hids this process .

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-faq

Because it would be incredibly tedious and boring.

and it used to be televised. there were still conspiracy theories. frozen envelopes, marked envelopes, etc. which was even more absurd because...it could have been done behind closed doors!

[prolific passer]

I don't think 93 draft lottery was about pairing Webber with Shaq but hoping the Magic draft Penny and having their next great big skilled center and big skilled point guard duo in their youth. Not like a young Kareem and a 10 year vet Robertson in 70 and a young Magic with a 10 year vet Kareem in 79.

[nomorezorro]

I would love to have nabbed Hali instead, but I'm not mad at the PWill pick. They went for a high ceiling guy, but it was a high-risk/high-reward swing that missed. Those usually miss, but if you hit, it changes the franchise trajectory. I got more upset when the prior regime went for perceived high floor guys in Carter and Douggy.

the fact that williams busted and haliburton turned into a star kind of underscores how misguided the traditional framing of "high ceiling" prospects is. haliburton was the safe, solid high-floor/low-ceiling guy in that draft!

i'm fairly certain there are more stars in the league who fit into the haliburton mold of "well, they're good players at the college/international level, but there are physical/athletic limitations that will keep them from being a star in the NBA" than the williams mold of "nothing about their on-court play to this point suggests this person is a high-impact basketball player, but if you squint and look at their physical/athletic attributes you can envision how they could be if everything breaks right"

[Michael Jackson]

I would love to have nabbed Hali instead, but I'm not mad at the PWill pick. They went for a high ceiling guy, but it was a high-risk/high-reward swing that missed. Those usually miss, but if you hit, it changes the franchise trajectory. I got more upset when the prior regime went for perceived high floor guys in Carter and Douggy.

the fact that williams busted and haliburton turned into a star kind of underscores how misguided the traditional framing of "high ceiling" prospects is. haliburton was the safe, solid high-floor/low-ceiling guy in that draft!

i'm fairly certain there are more stars in the league who fit into the haliburton mold of "well, they're good players at the college/international level, but there are physical/athletic limitations that will keep them from being a star in the NBA" than the williams mold of "nothing about their on-court play to this point suggests this person is a high-impact basketball player, but if you squint and look at their physical/athletic attributes you can envision how they could be if everything breaks right"

You just made Tyrus Thomas cry...

[prolific passer]

I would love to have nabbed Hali instead, but I'm not mad at the PWill pick. They went for a high ceiling guy, but it was a high-risk/high-reward swing that missed. Those usually miss, but if you hit, it changes the franchise trajectory. I got more upset when the prior regime went for perceived high floor guys in Carter and Douggy.

the fact that williams busted and haliburton turned into a star kind of underscores how misguided the traditional framing of "high ceiling" prospects is. haliburton was the safe, solid high-floor/low-ceiling guy in that draft!

i'm fairly certain there are more stars in the league who fit into the haliburton mold of "well, they're good players at the college/international level, but there are physical/athletic limitations that will keep them from being a star in the NBA" than the williams mold of "nothing about their on-court play to this point suggests this person is a high-impact basketball player, but if you squint and look at their physical/athletic attributes you can envision how they could be if everything breaks right"

You just made Tyrus Thomas cry...

Was supposed to be a bigger version of Shawn Marion instead became a bust version of Marion.