Post#800 » by CrimsonCrew » Fri May 16, 2025 6:07 pm
I've been a bit pessimistic about the season, but wanted to make a post about some reasons for optimism. Obviously the schedule may be the single biggest one. It's a very light schedule, and we need to capitalize on it to make another playoff run or this FO should feel some heat. But there are other reasons to have a positive view of the upcoming season, several of them linked to the reasons why last year went off the rails.
Arguably the biggest issue for this team last year was 4th quarter defense, which repeatedly cost us close games (granted the offense did not pull its weight, either). I attribute those struggles primarily to two things: 1) a complete inability to stop the run late in games, and 2) a completely vanilla scheme that repeatedly allowed for conversions on 3rd and 4th down.
The Niners were 25th in the league, allowing conversions on over 43% of third downs. They allowed over 65% of fourth down conversions. And it go worse the longer the game went. They couldn't get off the field. The run D was bad, allowing over 124 YPG, but it got much worse as the season progressed. They allowed 156 YPG over the final three games, 220 to the Bills (over 100 to Cook), 169 to the Packers (over 100 to Jacobs). This year, the run defense should be much-improved. We added three really good run-stoppers on the DL and - although quite undersized - a really good LB and nickel back against the run. Our short-yardage defense in particular should be pretty potent. I'm not sure another NFL team has a better run-stopping starting four than Bosa, Collins, West, and Williams.
The addition of Saleh should dramatically improve the scheme, and will hopefully put us into more favorable situations. I think we're weaker on the back end this year, but our front-seven should be better. We also added a number of back-seven players who have excelled at blitzing, so I think we'll see a more aggressive approach. Sorensen just ran man coverage almost every single time on 3rd and long. We never figured out how to defend a bunch formation. I can't see that happening this year.
The other big reason for optimism is that I think our red zone offense could be much better. Despite CMC's injury last year, we ran the ball reasonably well. We were 12th in the league in overall rushing yards, and 9th in yards per attempt. However, our primary RBs, Mason and Guerendo, don't have very good vision. They did okay between the 20s, where the scheme and their physicality allowed them to make some things happen (Mason more so than Guerendo, who was pretty boom-or-bust). But inside the 20, when things tightened up, the lack of vision really showed.
Mason carried 32 times inside the 20, but only had three TDs. His average plummeted from 5.2 overall to 2.9 YPC. Similar runners in terms of YPC fared noticeably better. Bucky Irving had a 5.4 YPC average, and a 4.0 YPC with eight TDs on 37 carries inside the 20. James Cook averaged 5.0 YPC overall, and fell to 3.0 in the red zone, but also scored 12 TDs on 48 carries.
Guerendo was better in the red zone despite his worse vision overall, maintaining a 3.5 YPC average and scoring on four of 14 carries, but seven total red-zone rushing TDs from our primary RBs just isn't good enough (CMC didn't have any).
Some of the red zone struggles fall on our OL. But we need backs with vision down there, too. CMC struggled on limited carries this past year, but he has demonstrated an ability to convert previously. And this is where the addition of Jordan James should pay dividends if CMC goes down again. James isn't a burner, but he's got very good vision and was lethal in the red zone. He converted 15 TDs inside the 20, 14 of them inside the 10. That should be a huge improvement over what we had last year.
Anyway, still plenty to worry about in terms of passing D, OL play, Purdy's trajectory, aging and injured players, etc. But it wouldn't take much for this team to snatch a few more games than last year's team and be right back in the mix for playoffs and possibly more this year.