Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[TGW]

I consider Bilal our most promising prospect and probably our best player.

This. With that being said, he looks so far away from being an actual good basketball player, that people are suggesting he be a part of a draft package to move up. Yikes.

[pcbothwel]

I consider Bilal our most promising prospect and probably our best player.

People really need to look at all the under 20 guys over the last decade. Paolo, Dyson Daniels, Franz, Giddey, Herro, SGA, JJJ, Markennan, Mitchell, Tatum, Brown, Booker, etc... Oh..How about Deni? Lol
Most of these guys were below average their first two years, and some were downright bad. Then around year 3/4 they pop.

[payitforward]

...But yes. You won’t be surprised. If you have a mega star on your team suddenly you are a better player. Because you share in their wins.

Which is the problem, because no you are not a better player b/c your team just acquired a mega star. Any more than you are a worse player b/c your team acquired a bad player.

As in every other human activity, success in basketball is a function of actual stuff that actually happens. I may say that you make shots & get rebounds b/c you're a good player, but the actual metric is the reverse -- you are a good player because you make shots & get rebounds.

[payitforward]

I consider Bilal our most promising prospect and probably our best player.

Perhaps our most promising player, but he was certainly not our best player this year.

How promising you are is a function of many variables. & important.
How good you are right now is a function of what you produce on the court, good & bad.

OTOH, if what you mean by "good" is "most valuable in a trade," or similar, then naturally how promising you are becomes part of the equation.

[AFM]

I think I can guess who PIF considers our best player.
Is his last name close to an alcoholic drink?

[payitforward]

I think I can guess who PIF considers our best player.
Is his last name close to an alcoholic drink?

"Best player" can mean many things.

You brought this up, so now you're on the hook. Who do you think performed best this year? Who put up the best numbers overall?

[doclinkin]

...But yes. You won’t be surprised. If you have a mega star on your team suddenly you are a better player. Because you share in their wins.

Which is the problem, because no you are not a better player b/c your team just acquired a mega star. Any more than you are a worse player b/c your team acquired a bad player.

As in every other human activity, success in basketball is a function of actual stuff that actually happens. I may say that you make shots & get rebounds b/c you're a good player, but the actual metric is the reverse -- you are a good player because you make shots & get rebounds.

My point. It’s a flawed metric. Especially for measuring young players. It’s fine for comparing HOF players after a long career. Who is the winningest winner. That sort of thing.

[DCZards]

I think I can guess who PIF considers our best player.
Is his last name close to an alcoholic drink?

"Best player" can mean many things.

You brought this up, so now you're on the hook. Who do you think performed best this year? Who put up the best numbers overall?

The player with the best numbers in the past is not necessarily your "best player" when you're looking at it prospectively.

[AFM]

I think I can guess who PIF considers our best player.
Is his last name close to an alcoholic drink?

"Best player" can mean many things.

You brought this up, so now you're on the hook. Who do you think performed best this year? Who put up the best numbers overall?

It's a bait question because I know you too well and you're going to say "ACTUALLY HE WAS THE WORST PLAYER ON OUR TEAM!!!!" but Jordan Poole, considering that he's the only legitimate NBA player on our roster that a) played heavy minutes against starters and b) was worthy of any defensive attention at all.

He turned it over too much but that's not unreasonable when playing with 4 rookies.

I'm leaving out players that were traded away or acquired mid season.

(I'm not even saying Poole had a great season, that's just the sorry state of our roster right now).

[payitforward]

I think I can guess who PIF considers our best player.
Is his last name close to an alcoholic drink?

"Best player" can mean many things.

You brought this up, so now you're on the hook. Who do you think performed best this year? Who put up the best numbers overall?

The player with the best numbers in the past is not necessarily your "best player" when you're looking at it prospectively.

Absolutely!
Hey, did I bring up this "best player" thing? No, I did not!

[payitforward]

I think I can guess who PIF considers our best player.
Is his last name close to an alcoholic drink?

"Best player" can mean many things.

You brought this up, so now you're on the hook. Who do you think performed best this year? Who put up the best numbers overall?

It's a bait question because I know you too well and you're going to say "ACTUALLY HE WAS THE WORST PLAYER ON OUR TEAM!!!!" but Jordan Poole, considering that he's the only legitimate NBA player on our roster that a) played heavy minutes against starters and b) was worthy of any defensive attention at all.

He turned it over too much but that's not unreasonable when playing with 4 rookies.

I'm leaving out players that were traded away or acquired mid season.

(I'm not even saying Poole had a great season, that's just the sorry state of our roster right now).

Actually, he was the wors...
Nah.

But... he wasn't "good." Jordan has a ways to go before anyone should call him good.

Still, he was pretty clearly the most improved player on the team -- almost back to the level of his 3d year, which was good -- if not great.

[dobrojim]

I consider Bilal our most promising prospect and probably our best player.

This. With that being said, he looks so far away from being an actual good basketball player, that people are suggesting he be a part of a draft package to move up. Yikes.

I don't consider those people very smart.
Opinions, including mine to be fair, are like @ssholes.
Everybody's got one.

[doclinkin]

I consider Bilal our most promising prospect and probably our best player.

This. With that being said, he looks so far away from being an actual good basketball player, that people are suggesting he be a part of a draft package to move up. Yikes.

I don't consider those people very smart.
Opinions, including mine to be fair, are like @ssholes.
Everybody's got one.

LOL that was me. And Dat. But only in wondering if the Spurs thought he'd be worth a package to unite him with Wemby. If the front office thinks Harper is a better bet, and the growth of Kyshawn/Sarr can absorb the loss of Bilal.

[badinage]

You can think it’s dumb, but if Bilal can fetch a player who Dawkins thinks can defend *and* also shoot, it’d be at least worth having a serious conversation about.

Nobody is untouchable. And Dawkins has shown that if a player with promise isn’t likely to take a major jump, then he has no problem with swapping him for draft capital.

I don’t know who in the draft is worth pursuing with fervor — or if there even *is* a player outside of 1 and 2 (who are not gettable) who is. I’m not Dawkins. But IF there is (Edgecombe? Bailey?), then why not? That’s what having “assets” is for, no? We have 6 players from two drafts and potentially 2 more coming. That’s a lot of guys. But what matters most is that at least one of them, ideally two, turn out to be great.

[leswizards]

I am not acting like anything. I am stating a fact. That fact is the Wizards have one season left to determine whether they are going to pick up his option or not. So far Bilal has not been very good. Contrary to your belief that he is a 3 and d player, he is actually very far below average as a three point shooter. And he is also below average as a shooter in general. If Bilal doesn’t improve significantly this season, and the Wizards pick up his option, it is not because he has earned it; it is merely because the Wizards are invested in their hope that he will get better.

Additionally, it is appropriate that you mention Johnny Davis. All the Dawkins first rounders have only been marginally better than Johnny Davis, but no one blasts them because they are invested in their belief that Shepherd was awful, and Dawkins will save them.

I don't think I'm going to change your mind on Bilal, and we don't need to have a big back and forth, but I do want to point out for the record:

Bilal is a career 38% shooter on corner threes. That is almost exactly league average. See https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/bilal-coulibaly-shot-chart-career for example.

Calling Bilal "marginally better" than Johnny Davis is just baffling to me.

You are correct that he is a pretty good corner 3 point shooter. However, he sucks at all other 3PA (27.7% for non corner 3PA). 65.5% of his 3PA are non corner 3PA. Guess who else is pretty good at shooting corner 3PA attempts but sucks at all other 3PA attempts, and shoots mainly non corner 3PA: Alex Sarr and Keyshawn George. What are the Wizards going to do? Stick them all in the corner.

[DCZards]

You are correct that he is a pretty good corner 3 point shooter. However, he sucks at all other 3PA (27.7% for non corner 3PA). 65.5% of his 3PA are non corner 3PA. Guess who else is pretty good at shooting corner 3PA attempts but sucks at all other 3PA attempts, and shoots mainly non corner 3PA: Alex Sarr and Keyshawn George. What are the Wizards going to do? Stick them all in the corner.

No...you have patience and give them the opportunity/time to develop and improve. That's the smart thing to do when you have players who are 19, 20 & 21 years old.

[doclinkin]

Guess who else is pretty good at shooting corner 3PA attempts but sucks at all other 3PA attempts, and shoots mainly non corner 3PA: Alex Sarr and Keyshawn George. What are the Wizards going to do? Stick them all in the corner.

Or you know, train them up. 3pt% is one of those stats that reliably improves with practice. Especially as players get stronger. More stable base. Less wobbles. More repeatable. Plus game reps, confidence, seeing it go in so you know what it feels like. And no yips or fear: on a team with tanking in mind you’re not looking over your shoulder if you miss a shot. You’ll take the next one.

[nate33]

Guess who else is pretty good at shooting corner 3PA attempts but sucks at all other 3PA attempts, and shoots mainly non corner 3PA: Alex Sarr and Keyshawn George. What are the Wizards going to do? Stick them all in the corner.

Or you know, train them up. 3pt% is one of those stats that reliably improves with practice. Especially as players get stronger. More stable base. Less wobbles. More repeatable. Plus game reps, confidence, seeing it go in so you know what it feels like. And no yips or fear: on a team with tanking in mind you’re not looking over your shoulder if you miss a shot. You’ll take the next one.

I think Bilal’s shooting will be fine. He shot well early in the season and then deteriorated as the season went on. I believe that means he was capable of improving his shot with regular offseason reps to hone his muscle memory, but he lost it during the season when he had less time to train. The same thing happened with Deni.

I think guys like that who demonstrate that they can learn a new shooting technique can eventually make the new technique permanent.

[DCZards]

The most encouraging aspect of Bilal’s offensive game last season was his ability to use his quickness to take his defender off the dribble and get an open shot in the paint.

However, he missed far too many of the ensuing short jumpers. I’m sure that’s an aspect of his game that he’ll also be working on.

[doclinkin]

That fact is the Wizards have one season left to determine whether they are going to pick up his option or not. So far Bilal has not been very good. Contrary to your belief that he is a 3 and d player, he is actually very far below average as a three point shooter. And he is also below average as a shooter in general. If Bilal doesn’t improve significantly this season, and the Wizards pick up his option, it is not because he has earned it; it is merely because the Wizards are invested in their hope that he will get better.

Or because of the likelihood and understanding that young players get better. This was the front office who was smart enough to extend Deni to that contract, early before his real breakout. The same Deni that has caused all this hair pulling and unseemly whining. But if they had treated Deni with the above rush to judgement they'd have jettisoned him. Here's Deni stacked up against Bilal in years 1-2:

https://stathead.com/tiny/vlxgP

Pretty much the exact same player. Deni rebounds better. Fouls a little more. Bilal gets to the line more often. Both were noted as surprisingly good defenders when matched against opposing top scorers. Though Deni is a year older than Bilal. Which matters. Young players get better. Younger players have a chance to get better for longer. Productive teens often have higher upside. If you can lock them in and extend them before the typical breakout year (~age 23) you have a steal for their 2nd contract.

I know folks have hurt feels about Deni, because he was the rare homegrown talent who actually started to become good while on the Wizards. It is ironic though that given the long history of players leaving this squad and then breaking out, or becoming champions, that we would have people arguing for us to do exactly that with the guys we do have. Or assuming the guys you see today are at their limit, vs who they will be by the end of their contract or career.

It is short sighted to judge this crew after 1 season. Or 2. When the team mandate is to lose so as not to ship away a key asset. We can't afford to lose a 1st round draft pick, so we have picked young and raw players that have upside and a long way to go. If you don't see the potential in the guys we've got, vs their immediate production, you aren't taking a long view. Or your vision is clouded by your blues over losing your favorite player crush. And frankly you need to get over it.