Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[GoneShammGone]

Quick question... since I'm too lazy to Google/grok it, I'll ask here. If we had kept Deni until the end of his contract, would we have had "Bird rights", or would he have been a UFA?

Yes...lol UFA with bird rights

Ooops! Yeah, I was thinking "bird rights" == RFA. Ok, so if we had kept him till the end of the contract, we would have had to pay full market value for him at that point.

So given that we are very unlikely to be good in the next four years even if we kept him, seems like we pretty much had to trade him at some point. Unless we wanted to simply waste four years of cost-effective production on a few 33 win seasons? I definitely get being unhappy with the return, but the trade was going to happen at some point.

[Kanyewest]

Something to monitor down the line. The 2029 first rounder that the Wizards acquired will be the 2nd most favorable of three first round picks between Portland, Boston, and Milwaukee (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40440170/sources-wizards-trading-forward-deni-avdija-trail-blazers). Not sure if there are protections on the Bucks or Celtics picks but interesting to note that both the Celtics and the Bucks had key players who suffered Achilles injuries that could improve the value of the pick.

Good point. I had assumed it was a given that the Celtics pick would be very late, but suddenly that doesn’t look like a certainty anymore. Porzingis looks cooked already and Jrue will be washed in 3 more years. White will be 34 by then Brown will be 32 with a lot of mileage. Pritchard and Tatum are the only guys who will still be in their prime, and now there is some doubt about Tatum.

Yeah listening to the Bill Simmons podcast from a few days ago and other NBA pods have suggested that the Celtics are more than likely going to break up their current core, especially if they don't get a title this season. Their payroll is estimated to be 227 million, and their payroll after luxury tax payment would be more than $500 million. https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/jayson-tatum-injury-boston-celtics-salary-cap-contracts/

Simmons suggested that KP/Holiday would have little value in a trade and they may have to move on from someone like Jaylen Brown or Derrick White in order to dump payroll. This of course is widely speculative and the Celtics could still be a good team if Tatum makes a recovery from his Achilles but not as certain as it was when the trade was made.

[nate33]

Quick question... since I'm too lazy to Google/grok it, I'll ask here. If we had kept Deni until the end of his contract, would we have had "Bird rights", or would he have been a UFA?

Yes...lol UFA with bird rights

Ooops! Yeah, I was thinking "bird rights" == RFA. Ok, so if we had kept him till the end of the contract, we would have had to pay full market value for him at that point.

So given that we are very unlikely to be good in the next four years even if we kept him, seems like we pretty much had to trade him at some point. Unless we wanted to simply waste four years of cost-effective production on a few 33 win seasons? I definitely get being unhappy with the return, but the trade was going to happen at some point.

He would’ve been highly unlikely to leave. After 3 more seasons, the Wizards will be competitive. Why would Deni leave a competitive young team via free agency when teams with cap room generally suck?

[payitforward]

Said every degenerate gambler ever.

Don't you think maybe you're taking this a little bit too far?

No I don't.

...just like the husband who gambles away the down payment for the new home or juniors college tuition in Las Vegas....

Well, you have the courage of your convictions, which is admirable.

Tell me this: do you think there's any chance at all that you are incorrect?

&, if it turned out that you were incorrect, would you be happy? Or...?

[dobrojim]

I'm seeing talk about trades for big stars like Giannis
or Trae. I think that kind of talk is really foolish. I
think they've chosen their current strategy carefully.
And there are decent reasons, at least for the near to medium future, to just be patient.

[GoneShammGone]

Yes...lol UFA with bird rights

Ooops! Yeah, I was thinking "bird rights" == RFA. Ok, so if we had kept him till the end of the contract, we would have had to pay full market value for him at that point.

So given that we are very unlikely to be good in the next four years even if we kept him, seems like we pretty much had to trade him at some point. Unless we wanted to simply waste four years of cost-effective production on a few 33 win seasons? I definitely get being unhappy with the return, but the trade was going to happen at some point.

He would’ve been highly unlikely to leave. After 3 more seasons, the Wizards will be competitive. Why would Deni leave a competitive young team via free agency when teams with cap room generally suck?

Sure, but what I meant was, we would need to pay the full going rate. So he wouldn't be a bargain any more. Unless he really does evolve into a max-contract superstar, we would pay top dollar for his declining years, a la John Wall/Bradley Beal. I'm just saying the timing wasn't right. Deni's max value coincides with the years we intend to suck. Hence the logic of the trade. Fwiw, I think they could have gotten more if they had waited until the deadline, but the writing was on the wall.

[nate33]

Ooops! Yeah, I was thinking "bird rights" == RFA. Ok, so if we had kept him till the end of the contract, we would have had to pay full market value for him at that point.

So given that we are very unlikely to be good in the next four years even if we kept him, seems like we pretty much had to trade him at some point. Unless we wanted to simply waste four years of cost-effective production on a few 33 win seasons? I definitely get being unhappy with the return, but the trade was going to happen at some point.

He would’ve been highly unlikely to leave. After 3 more seasons, the Wizards will be competitive. Why would Deni leave a competitive young team via free agency when teams with cap room generally suck?

Sure, but what I meant was, we would need to pay the full going rate. So he wouldn't be a bargain any more. Unless he really does evolve into a max-contract superstar, we would pay top dollar for his declining years, a la John Wall/Bradley Beal. I'm just saying the timing wasn't right. Deni's max value coincides with the years we intend to suck. Hence the logic of the trade. Fwiw, I think they could have gotten more if they had waited until the deadline, but the writing was on the wall.

I think that logic applies for rotation caliber role players like Gafford or Kispert who can be rather easily replaced in free agency or by trading a late pick. It does not apply to guys with All Star production like Deni. You keep those guys and pay them a market rate because they are nearly impossible to replace.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Don't you think maybe you're taking this a little bit too far?

No I don't.

...just like the husband who gambles away the down payment for the new home or juniors college tuition in Las Vegas....

Well, you have the courage of your convictions, which is admirable.

Tell me this: do you think there's any chance at all that you are incorrect?

&, if it turned out that you were incorrect, would you be happy? Or...?

I thought I throw in a little homage to Casino in there.

But, to your question, there's a varying levels of chance to anything, so absolutely, I could be wrong but don't believe I am here. I don't think Bub Carrington and some distant first were worth not taking the calculated risk of holding onto Deni given 1) age, 2) just breaking out when he finally got some rope on the Wizards, 3) versality and completeness of game, 4) mentality, and 5) continued growth.

I'm providing a counterbalance to the healthy contingent that can find no wrong with Dawkins. He's a GM, he should be held accountable, not given a 8-year free pass.

[GoneShammGone]

...

I'm providing a counterbalance to the healthy contingent that can find no wrong with Dawkins. He's a GM, he should be held accountable, not given a 8-year free pass.

If Deni makes the All-Star game next season, and Bub has any problems at all, there will a lot of people here calling for Dawkins' job!

In that sense I have to give Dawkins credit for the decision. It was ballsy. He is definitely not playing it safe.

[dckingsfan]

...

I'm providing a counterbalance to the healthy contingent that can find no wrong with Dawkins. He's a GM, he should be held accountable, not given a 8-year free pass.

If Deni makes the All-Star game next season, and Bub has any problems at all, there will a lot of people here calling for Dawkins' job!

In that sense I have to give Dawkins credit for the decision. It was ballsy. He is definitely not playing it safe.

Aren't there a few things at play here.

Strategy, tactics and execution on those tactics. I like Dawkins strategy of starting the rebuild in earnest. I get most of the tactics he is trying to employ.

Like with any application of tactics there will be mistakes. I think the Deni trade, Kuz and Kispert signings and trade for Poole wouldn't go on my "wow, amazing" list. His drafting of Bilal, Sarr, Bub & George would go on that list.

That some find nothing good about Dawkins That some find no fault with Dawkins

I think he has been a decent GM, better than the previous two. I don't think he has been a great GM - smh.

[doclinkin]

I don’t think there are those who rate Dawkins as perfect. I think the supporters of this front office simply are giving them room to follow thru on their strategy.

They inherited a team with no future. Entrenched in mediocrity. So they demolished it to the foundations. Not easy to do. Not always comfortable.

We are still in the demolition phase. We owe draft picks to New York and losing hard is the only way to lessen the blow. Deliberately losing is about as ‘demolition’ as you get.

Missteps. We had leverage with Tyus Jones, he took less money than we offered in sign and trade. We spent 2nd round picks to move up for Kyshawn but we were probably bidding against ourselves. New York played us against OKC or vice versa. We figured we could use Brogdon as a trade asset. But he never got healthy. PBJ. Ryan Rollins. Never amounted to much. So Maybe we could have gotten less protection on the GSW pick instead.

I think the biggest issue is the disagreement with the detractors over the large moves they’ve made. Supporters think we got good value on many of the trades we did make. Given our situation. Given the facts — as opposed to speculation of what might coulda happened.

And as for the big issue. The Deni trade. Those who appreciate the front office work so far are basically saying: we will see. The value of it will be known by the 2026 draft at the earliest. We fell to 6 on the strength of 1 game. How far could we fall if Deni was adding to our wins. Outside the top 10 we would lose our pick. Trade Kuz and keep Deni might have meant we missed out not only on Cooper and Harper but on the lottery entirely. Due to poor management.

But either way it was a bold move and a gamble. That’s a switch from many of the moves we have dealt with in the past. Nibbling away at the edges trying hard to become mediocre. Instead of being willing to be terrible for the chance to get good.

They’re in it 100% with no apologies. Good motto to me. Could even say: That’s the reason I’m a Bullets fan.

[payitforward]

...

I'm providing a counterbalance to the healthy contingent that can find no wrong with Dawkins. He's a GM, he should be held accountable, not given a 8-year free pass.

If Deni makes the All-Star game next season, and Bub has any problems at all, there will a lot of people here calling for Dawkins' job!

In that sense I have to give Dawkins credit for the decision. It was ballsy. He is definitely not playing it safe.

Aren't there a few things at play here.

Strategy, tactics and execution on those tactics. I like Dawkins strategy of starting the rebuild in earnest. I get most of the tactics he is trying to employ.

Like with any application of tactics there will be mistakes. I think the Deni trade, Kuz and Kispert signings and trade for Poole wouldn't go on my "wow, amazing" list. His drafting of Bilal, Sarr, Bub & George would go on that list.

That some find nothing good about Dawkins That some find no fault with Dawkins

I think he has been a decent GM, better than the previous two. I don't think he has been a great GM - smh.

The strategic change was/is an extraordinary breath of fresh air.
The only question to ask is whether Will has maximized the opportunities presented to him.

My response is to say that he certainly has -- in spades!

1. I think the Beal trade was absolutely phenomenal -- amazing.
To put it another way, I can see no way anyone could have gotten more out of the situation Brad's contract had put us in.

2. I think trading CP3 to GS for Poole, Baldwin & Rollins was tremendous as well. On an extremely expensive, expiring contract, Chris Paul had zero trade value. If you think otherwise, why don't you take a look at how CP3 worked out for GS. They gave up a lot to get him, they paid him a lot, & then he expired & went on his way: they got nothing whatever for him.

In short, CP3 had no trade value. Of course, we could have kept him, gotten nothing for him, & simply allowed him to expire as a Wizard instead of a Warrior. No thanks.

3. The '23 draft -- trading up for Bilal was a minor risk, & there's no one I'd have wanted to take at 8 rather than 7. Take a look at that draft, & you come up with someone! I doubt it's possible. I was/am very happy with the move.

4. Aside from the controversy around trading Deni, I'd say every other trade Will has made so far has worked out brilliantly. Are all the guys we acquired likely to wind up as outstanding NBA players? No, of course not -- but pretty much every one of them has a shot at being quite good.

5. I'm also happy with the 2024 draft. & with our trade deadline moves a few months ago. I'm guessing most people are.

6. Obviously, some people here question the decision to trade Deni. It's their privilege to do so: you can marshall arguments on both sides of the issue. But, I'd say that's pretty much the only controversial issue in Will's tenure so far.

Rebuilding this franchise is not some kind of a rehab job. We leveled the place & have started from scratch. It was the only choice.

[closg00]

I don’t think there are those who rate Dawkins as perfect. I think the supporters of this front office simply are giving them room to follow thru on their strategy.

They inherited a team with no future. Entrenched in mediocrity. So they demolished it to the foundations. Not easy to do. Not always comfortable.

We are still in the demolition phase. We owe draft picks to New York and losing hard is the only way to lessen the blow. Deliberately losing is about as ‘demolition’ as you get.

Missteps. We had leverage with Tyus Jones, he took less money than we offered in sign and trade. We spent 2nd round picks to move up for Kyshawn but we were probably bidding against ourselves. New York played us against OKC or vice versa. We figured we could use Brogdon as a trade asset. But he never got healthy. PBJ. Ryan Rollins. Never amounted to much. So Maybe we could have gotten less protection on the GSW pick instead.

I think the biggest issue is the disagreement with the detractors over the large moves they’ve made. Supporters think we got good value on many of the trades we did make. Given our situation. Given the facts — as opposed to speculation of what might coulda happened.

And as for the big issue. The Deni trade. Those who appreciate the front office work so far are basically saying: we will see. The value of it will be known by the 2026 draft at the earliest. We fell to 6 on the strength of 1 game. How far could we fall if Deni was adding to our wins. Outside the top 10 we would lose our pick. Trade Kuz and keep Deni might have meant we missed out not only on Cooper and Harper but on the lottery entirely. Due to poor management.

But either way it was a bold move and a gamble. That’s a switch from many of the moves we have dealt with in the past. Nibbling away at the edges trying hard to become mediocre. Instead of being willing to be terrible for the chance to get good.

They’re in it 100% with no apologies. Good motto to me. Could even say: That’s the reason I’m a Bullets fan.

I would add giving Corey an undeserved 4-year extension, I wish we had moved-on from him, I am hoping he can be used as trade filler in some way

[dckingsfan]

I don’t think there are those who rate Dawkins as perfect. I think the supporters of this front office simply are giving them room to follow thru on their strategy.

They inherited a team with no future. Entrenched in mediocrity. So they demolished it to the foundations. Not easy to do. Not always comfortable.

We are still in the demolition phase. We owe draft picks to New York and losing hard is the only way to lessen the blow. Deliberately losing is about as ‘demolition’ as you get.

Missteps. We had leverage with Tyus Jones, he took less money than we offered in sign and trade. We spent 2nd round picks to move up for Kyshawn but we were probably bidding against ourselves. New York played us against OKC or vice versa. We figured we could use Brogdon as a trade asset. But he never got healthy. PBJ. Ryan Rollins. Never amounted to much. So Maybe we could have gotten less protection on the GSW pick instead.

I think the biggest issue is the disagreement with the detractors over the large moves they’ve made. Supporters think we got good value on many of the trades we did make. Given our situation. Given the facts — as opposed to speculation of what might coulda happened.

And as for the big issue. The Deni trade. Those who appreciate the front office work so far are basically saying: we will see. The value of it will be known by the 2026 draft at the earliest. We fell to 6 on the strength of 1 game. How far could we fall if Deni was adding to our wins. Outside the top 10 we would lose our pick. Trade Kuz and keep Deni might have meant we missed out not only on Cooper and Harper but on the lottery entirely. Due to poor management.

But either way it was a bold move and a gamble. That’s a switch from many of the moves we have dealt with in the past. Nibbling away at the edges trying hard to become mediocre. Instead of being willing to be terrible for the chance to get good.

They’re in it 100% with no apologies. Good motto to me. Could even say: That’s the reason I’m a Bullets fan.

I would add giving Corey an undeserved 4-year extension, I wish we had moved-on from him, I am hoping he can be used as trade filler in some way

And the Kuzma signing. Also karma says if we kept Deni we would have gotten Flagg or Harper... so there is that. And the difference between drafting 6 or 8 or something like that is meh.

I think they weren't paying close enough attention to the new CBA and cap of other teams to realize they could empty their payroll and get many more draft assets. They could have waited to trade Deni and received much more. PIF mentions the Beal trade and he is spot on.

I am all in on the strategy of tearing it down to the ground - Grade A

I am meh on the "execution and timing" around the trades and resigning(s) - Grade C+

I am impressed with their draft record, but not the year they took their picks - Grade B+

Overall very solid. But given where we were at - they needed to be a bit better to get out of the bottom churn - my 1/2 cent.

[DCZards]

I don’t think there are those who rate Dawkins as perfect. I think the supporters of this front office simply are giving them room to follow thru on their strategy.

They inherited a team with no future. Entrenched in mediocrity. So they demolished it to the foundations. Not easy to do. Not always comfortable.

We are still in the demolition phase. We owe draft picks to New York and losing hard is the only way to lessen the blow. Deliberately losing is about as ‘demolition’ as you get.

Missteps. We had leverage with Tyus Jones, he took less money than we offered in sign and trade. We spent 2nd round picks to move up for Kyshawn but we were probably bidding against ourselves. New York played us against OKC or vice versa. We figured we could use Brogdon as a trade asset. But he never got healthy. PBJ. Ryan Rollins. Never amounted to much. So Maybe we could have gotten less protection on the GSW pick instead.

I think the biggest issue is the disagreement with the detractors over the large moves they’ve made. Supporters think we got good value on many of the trades we did make. Given our situation. Given the facts — as opposed to speculation of what might coulda happened.

And as for the big issue. The Deni trade. Those who appreciate the front office work so far are basically saying: we will see. The value of it will be known by the 2026 draft at the earliest. We fell to 6 on the strength of 1 game. How far could we fall if Deni was adding to our wins. Outside the top 10 we would lose our pick. Trade Kuz and keep Deni might have meant we missed out not only on Cooper and Harper but on the lottery entirely. Due to poor management.

But either way it was a bold move and a gamble. That’s a switch from many of the moves we have dealt with in the past. Nibbling away at the edges trying hard to become mediocre. Instead of being willing to be terrible for the chance to get good.

They’re in it 100% with no apologies. Good motto to me. Could even say: That’s the reason I’m a Bullets fan.

I would add giving Corey an undeserved 4-year extension, I wish we had moved-on from him, I am hoping he can be used as trade filler in some way

And the Kuzma signing. Also karma says if we kept Deni we would have gotten Flagg or Harper... so there is that. And the difference between drafting 6 or 8 or something like that is meh.

We traded Kuz to the Bucks for a FRP (AJ Johnson), Middleton, and a first round pick swap with the Buck in 2028. We get none of those things if we don’t resign him.

[dckingsfan]

I would add giving Corey an undeserved 4-year extension, I wish we had moved-on from him, I am hoping he can be used as trade filler in some way

And the Kuzma signing. Also karma says if we kept Deni we would have gotten Flagg or Harper... so there is that. And the difference between drafting 6 or 8 or something like that is meh.

We traded Kuz to the Bucks for a FRP (AJ Johnson), Middleton, and a first round pick swap with the Buck in 2028. We get none of those things if we don’t resign him.

If you have free cap space you can do something better... and in n-game theory, another team would have been penalized by the signing.

[DCZards]

And the Kuzma signing. Also karma says if we kept Deni we would have gotten Flagg or Harper... so there is that. And the difference between drafting 6 or 8 or something like that is meh.

We traded Kuz to the Bucks for a FRP (AJ Johnson), Middleton, and a first round pick swap with the Buck in 2028. We get none of those things if we don’t resign him.

If you have free cap space you can do something better... and in n-game theory, another team would have been penalized by the signing.

Cap space is only valuable if there’s a quality free agent or two available to spend it on. No top free agent is signing with a bad, rebuilding Zards team.

Assets like young players like AJ and draft picks are more valuable to a rebuilding team.

[dckingsfan]

We traded Kuz to the Bucks for a FRP (AJ Johnson), Middleton, and a first round pick swap with the Buck in 2028. We get none of those things if we don’t resign him.

If you have free cap space you can do something better... and in n-game theory, another team would have been penalized by the signing.

Cap space is only valuable if there’s a quality free agent or two available to spend it on. No top free agent is signing with a bad, rebuilding Zards team.

Assets like young players like AJ and draft picks are more valuable to a rebuilding team.

Smh. If we are just taking back bad contracts, you get more assets. That is the nature of this current CBA and where teams are with regards to their cap. So, no - your thinking would have been correct BEFORE this current CBA.

Another way to say it. If you are the Nets, you can now do trades or facilitate trades with other teams using your cap space to get a large haul of draft picks (and hopefully in better draft years that '24).

[9 and 20]

Should have traded Deni to the Lakers, obviously. Part of the return would have been the one frozen ping pong ball.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Through and through fleecing of epic proportions.

https://ripcityproject.com/portland-trail-blazers-clearly-fleeced-wizards-deni-avdija-trade

I remember this one on Wizards of Awes after the trade:

https://wizofawes.com/posts/washington-wizards-fleeced-deni-avdija-trade-portland-trail-blazers-saddiq-bey-signing-free-agency