Value of upcoming MN FA

[life_saver]

So I saw a discussion on Wolves twitter based on Hollinger/Duncan proposing a $150M/5 yr deal for Randle on their pod...my first thoughts were doesn't this feel like a low-ball offer for Randle ? I mean Brandon Ingram signed a 3 yr $120M extension few months ago and that dude is barely on court half the time...I know Nets are the only team with cap space but I think Randle would be expecting for a better offer than $30M AAV which would make him like 70th highest paid during next season...that's way below his level of play, especially considering his playoff performance.

Yes and no. No other team is giving him five years. $150 is a lot of guaranteed money. More than he’ll get elsewhere. The one potential suitor that can cut money and is a decent fit is the Pistons, but I don’t think they’d do 150 guaranteed. Plus, we could structure it as a 4+1, giving him a player option in year 5, which would mean if he’s still at an all star level, he could get one last big payday at age 34 instead of 35. Is that enough to sell him on an average of 30 per? I don’t know.

They indicated that if Randle opts out, we have about 50m under the second apron to re-sign Randle, Naz, and NAW. If Randle signed 5/150 with 8% raises, I think it’d start next year at about 26. Can we squeeze Naz/NAW into the other 24? I doubt it but maybe.

I just don't see any way where all 3 - Randle, Naz, NAW stay here next season. I feel like NAW is most likely gone and Naz depends on how things shake out.

Well, other teams might not be offering him 5 years but I also think he would be looking for better AAV than $30M AAV. Like I think something like 4 yr $150M might make sense for both the parties. Randle did already once take a team friendly discounted deal in 2021 when he was Knicks when he was coming off a All-NBA season. I am not sure he will take another one

[jpatrick]

So I saw a discussion on Wolves twitter based on Hollinger/Duncan proposing a $150M/5 yr deal for Randle on their pod...my first thoughts were doesn't this feel like a low-ball offer for Randle ? I mean Brandon Ingram signed a 3 yr $120M extension few months ago and that dude is barely on court half the time...I know Nets are the only team with cap space but I think Randle would be expecting for a better offer than $30M AAV which would make him like 70th highest paid during next season...that's way below his level of play, especially considering his playoff performance.

Maybe? Three weeks ago, we’d have said $30 was too much.

We know he likes this team, and he likes Finch, and his wife reportedly said they love living in Minnesota. Five years might make it palatable (though he’d probably want a player option on the fifth year). He gets to play on a contender where he has a huge role, but isn’t expected to carry the star role, which the quiet Randle never liked.

I know people mention that only BRK has max cap space, but he may be acquired by other teams in a sign-and-trade, or the third team can buy BRK’s space. But I don’t think Randle is at the top of the list of trade candidates (Giannis, Trey Young, Zion, Markannen, Durant) so there isn’t a lot of incentive for MIN to trade him. With free agency and trade market limiting his chance to go elsewhere, I think he’s here next year - what that number is, I’ll leave to Tim Connelly.

I think Randle will looking to maximize his value...he took a slight discount contract already when we was with Knicks in 2021 when he was coming off an All-NBA season. I am not expecting to take a team friendly contract again.

If we play hardball, what’s his options? Brooklyn is not going to want him. The Pistons can cut salary, do they want him? How much would they pay?

He could also opt in and hit the market next year, but I don’t see him doing that if 150m is on the table. He’ll be 31 next offseason with a history of injuries and very up/down seasons. I think he’ll want the security of a long contract now.

[life_saver]

Maybe? Three weeks ago, we’d have said $30 was too much.

We know he likes this team, and he likes Finch, and his wife reportedly said they love living in Minnesota. Five years might make it palatable (though he’d probably want a player option on the fifth year). He gets to play on a contender where he has a huge role, but isn’t expected to carry the star role, which the quiet Randle never liked.

I know people mention that only BRK has max cap space, but he may be acquired by other teams in a sign-and-trade, or the third team can buy BRK’s space. But I don’t think Randle is at the top of the list of trade candidates (Giannis, Trey Young, Zion, Markannen, Durant) so there isn’t a lot of incentive for MIN to trade him. With free agency and trade market limiting his chance to go elsewhere, I think he’s here next year - what that number is, I’ll leave to Tim Connelly.

I think Randle will looking to maximize his value...he took a slight discount contract already when we was with Knicks in 2021 when he was coming off an All-NBA season. I am not expecting to take a team friendly contract again.

If we play hardball, what’s his options? Brooklyn is not going to want him. The Pistons can cut salary, do they want him? How much would they pay?

He could also opt in and hit the market next year, but I don’t see him doing that if 150m is on the table. He’ll be 31 next offseason with a history of injuries and very up/down seasons. I think he’ll want the security of a long contract now.

Its possible there might be some other teams interested that would prefer to do a S&T..especially after this post-season run, Randle's stock has definitely gone up. Regarding Randle's injury history, I am not sure why you think he is injury prone. From 2015, these are the number of games he played each season -
2015 - 81
2016 - 74
2017 - 82
2018 - 73
2019 - 64 (max possible games was just 66 due to covid)
2020 - 71
2021 - 72
2022 - 77
2023 - 46
2024 - 69

So, basically except for 2023-24 season, he seems quite healthy..playing nearly 90% of the games.

[cmoss84]

I think Randle will looking to maximize his value...he took a slight discount contract already when we was with Knicks in 2021 when he was coming off an All-NBA season. I am not expecting to take a team friendly contract again.

If we play hardball, what’s his options? Brooklyn is not going to want him. The Pistons can cut salary, do they want him? How much would they pay?

He could also opt in and hit the market next year, but I don’t see him doing that if 150m is on the table. He’ll be 31 next offseason with a history of injuries and very up/down seasons. I think he’ll want the security of a long contract now.

Its possible there might be some other teams interested that would prefer to do a S&T..especially after this post-season run, Randle's stock has definitely gone up. Regarding Randle's injury history, I am not sure why you think he is injury prone. From 2015, these are the number of games he played each season -
2015 - 81
2016 - 74
2017 - 82
2018 - 73
2019 - 64 (max possible games was just 66 due to covid)
2020 - 71
2021 - 72
2022 - 77
2023 - 46
2024 - 69

So, basically except for 2023-24 season, he seems quite healthy..playing nearly 90% of the games.

I'd love to work out some kind of S&T with Detroit and Duren...

[life_saver]

If we play hardball, what’s his options? Brooklyn is not going to want him. The Pistons can cut salary, do they want him? How much would they pay?

He could also opt in and hit the market next year, but I don’t see him doing that if 150m is on the table. He’ll be 31 next offseason with a history of injuries and very up/down seasons. I think he’ll want the security of a long contract now.

Its possible there might be some other teams interested that would prefer to do a S&T..especially after this post-season run, Randle's stock has definitely gone up. Regarding Randle's injury history, I am not sure why you think he is injury prone. From 2015, these are the number of games he played each season -
2015 - 81
2016 - 74
2017 - 82
2018 - 73
2019 - 64 (max possible games was just 66 due to covid)
2020 - 71
2021 - 72
2022 - 77
2023 - 46
2024 - 69

So, basically except for 2023-24 season, he seems quite healthy..playing nearly 90% of the games.

I'd love to work out some kind of S&T with Detroit and Duren...

why would you wanna lose Randle though ? If anything, this playoffs have shown how important it is to have multiple shot creators on a team in playoffs. Randle is the only player currently on the team other than Ant who can reliably create his own shot...that's a very tough skill to replace

[cmoss84]

Its possible there might be some other teams interested that would prefer to do a S&T..especially after this post-season run, Randle's stock has definitely gone up. Regarding Randle's injury history, I am not sure why you think he is injury prone. From 2015, these are the number of games he played each season -
2015 - 81
2016 - 74
2017 - 82
2018 - 73
2019 - 64 (max possible games was just 66 due to covid)
2020 - 71
2021 - 72
2022 - 77
2023 - 46
2024 - 69

So, basically except for 2023-24 season, he seems quite healthy..playing nearly 90% of the games.

I'd love to work out some kind of S&T with Detroit and Duren...

why would you wanna lose Randle though ? If anything, this playoffs have shown how important it is to have multiple shot creators on a team in playoffs. Randle is the only player currently on the team other than Ant who can reliably create his own shot...that's a very tough skill to replace

Definitely a tough call. If it was up to me this offseason:
1) Complete this trade for Duren. We would get 1 cheap year on a rookie contract to develop behind Rudy. Decide what to do to extend either of these gentlemen after that. Duren was very good in playoffs this year. He could be our future C.
2) Re-sign Naz. I'm picking him over Randle because of his smaller contract (I think Randle gets 35 AAV+).
3) Trade #17 and Minott for Jose Alvarado
4) NAW gets let go
5) Extend Clark

PG: Mike/Avarado/RD
SG: Ant/DD/Clark
SF: Jaden/TSJ/Miller
PF: Naz/Duren/#31
C: Rudy/Duren/Garza/#31

[KGdaBom]

I'd love to work out some kind of S&T with Detroit and Duren...

why would you wanna lose Randle though ? If anything, this playoffs have shown how important it is to have multiple shot creators on a team in playoffs. Randle is the only player currently on the team other than Ant who can reliably create his own shot...that's a very tough skill to replace

Definitely a tough call. If it was up to me this offseason:
1) Complete this trade for Duren. We would get 1 cheap year on a rookie contract to develop behind Rudy. Decide what to do to extend either of these gentlemen after that. Duren was very good in playoffs this year. He could be our future C.
2) Re-sign Naz. I'm picking him over Randle because of his smaller contract (I think Randle gets 35 AAV+).
3) Trade #17 and Minott for Jose Alvarado
4) NAW gets let go
5) Extend Clark

PG: Mike/Avarado/RD
SG: Ant/DD/Clark
SF: Jaden/TSJ/Miller
PF: Naz/Duren/#31
C: Rudy/Duren/Garza/#31

Is Randle 30? I wouldn't let him go if I can avoid it. Keep championship window open.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[minimus]

Watch on YouTube

A few things from Marks:

1) he mentioned that Reid and Randle might pickup their PO in order to be in position to get big deals NEXT summer when many teams will have cap space

2) being under 2nd apron allows to aggregate contracts in trade for someone like KD

3) NAW is likely gone

[minimus]

I wonder is this series against OKC kind of calibrated Randle, Reid and NAW expectations and might result in blessing in disguise situation. Before playoff I had this feeling that easy schedule at the end of the season + injuries and team issues of LAL, GSW might be misleading in terms of talent evaluation of this team. This series has shown how much MIN lacks in terms of championship, mostly execution, decision making, but also pure talent.

[Klomp]

I suggest listening to Doogie's interview with Bobby Marks.

One interesting note from Bobby that sets this year apart....guys won't be "testing the market" because of the lack of cap space teams You have to know what your market is right now.

And worth noting for Naz, his PO is actually more money than he can get on a non-taxpayer MLE this year.

[BlacJacMac]

I suggest listening to Doogie's interview with Bobby Marks.

One interesting note from Bobby that sets this year apart....guys won't be "testing the market" because of the lack of cap space teams You have to know what your market is right now.

And worth noting for Naz, his PO is actually more money than he can get on a non-taxpayer MLE this year.

Yeah. I think its very likely Naz and Randle opt in because there is set to be a lot more cap space around the league next offseason.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

If we keep Randle and NAZ, we can let NAW go. Do we keep Rudy? Is there a market for him?
Can we try to go on Tyus?

[minimus]

I suggest listening to Doogie's interview with Bobby Marks.

One interesting note from Bobby that sets this year apart....guys won't be "testing the market" because of the lack of cap space teams You have to know what your market is right now.

And worth noting for Naz, his PO is actually more money than he can get on a non-taxpayer MLE this year.

Yeah. I think its very likely Naz and Randle opt in because there is set to be a lot more cap space around the league next offseason.

If both opt-in, do you think it gives TC more option to make trades? In this case case both Randle and Reid basically become expiring contracts and I am not sure whether they will be available for extension with new team in case of trade