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2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

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Who do you want us to take at #3?

Ace Bailey
34
45%
V.J. Edgecombe
20
27%
Kon Knueppel
3
4%
Khaman Maluach
1
1%
Tre Johnson
14
19%
Derik Queen
3
4%
 
Total votes: 75

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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1821 » by VDT » Sat May 17, 2025 8:43 am

Black Mage wrote:Apologies to whoever found this clip first - lost the post I clicked on the link to.

Read on Twitter


The early parts of this video hi-light how Ace could and should be used early on. He definitely has enough of an explosive first step and handle to aggressively attack a closeout. Which is all he really needs to provide immediate value to the Sixers in years 1 and 2.

How I picture it is if he's on the floor with Joel/PG/Maxey/Grimes or McCain his job will be to move around the perimeter and provide a C&S release valve. Presuming this kid is coachable (something Morey and team will need to determine and we'll have no way of knowing) the Sixers could simplify his role down to if you're open shoot the 3; if they close out drive. He's more than equipped to do those two things at a high level. We certainly won't have to worry about Ace hesitating to shoot. :wink:

For the last few years our boards kept trying to find a "wing" to plug our hole and a lot of us, myself included, kept hoping we'd bring Covington back. We wanted him to space, C&S or attack a closeout while providing above average to good off-ball help in stocks and solid on-ball defense.

Even with the holes we've all talked about; I don't see how anyone couldn't at least see Ace giving us exactly what we thought we needed/wanted from Covington right down to the "streaky shooting." But with Ace, we get more athleticism; youth, better handle and ability to get to the rim. His passing is about on par with Covington's. If you can get that just out the gate, that feels like a fit and a win for the pick and then you just hope he continues to develop and reach that absurd potential he displayed off and on last year.


First time watching the guy, but if these are the highlights it should be concerning. He can't blow by his opponent, and he is forced into bad shots. Even when he makes them, he doesn't look good. It's more like the shots happened to go in, and from what i get from this thread his stats say the same story.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1822 » by 76ciology » Sat May 17, 2025 10:34 am

Black Mage wrote:I was looking for Tre too; but was bit harder, I did stumble across one where he played against McCain in H.S. Nice to see McCain has played same way from H.S to college to the Sixers. Can't wait to see him back.


43 mins of Tre Johnson looking like SGA 2.0




MUST WATCH.

Tre Johnson should have been the lead guard at Texas. Had he been given that role, he might’ve been projected as the No. 2 overall pick.

*30min mark, Flagg’s Montverde went up against Tre’s HS team. Flagg defended him entire game and Tre ended up being the top scorer of the game with 25pts on like 10-16 (i’ll check again)
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1823 » by Kobblehead » Sat May 17, 2025 10:39 am

76ciology wrote:Nobody wants to talk about Ace Bailey’s poor basketball IQ here?

Just go to X and use keywords “Ace Bailey IQ”

The game is so cerebral right now and you have to wonder how Bailey can excel in the NBA, specially in the playoff setting

Andrew Wiggins, Harrison Barnes, and Michael Porter Jr. are all champions.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1824 » by 76ciology » Sat May 17, 2025 10:42 am

Kobblehead wrote:
76ciology wrote:Nobody wants to talk about Ace Bailey’s poor basketball IQ here?

Just go to X and use keywords “Ace Bailey IQ”

The game is so cerebral right now and you have to wonder how Bailey can excel in the NBA, specially in the playoff setting

Andrew Wiggins, Harrison Barnes, and Michael Porter Jr. are all champions.


So based on your response, you agree that Bailey has poor basketball IQ, you just don’t think high basketball IQ is necessarily required to be part of a championship team.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1825 » by Kobblehead » Sat May 17, 2025 10:50 am

76ciology wrote:So based on your response, you agree that Bailey has poor basketball IQ, you just don’t think high basketball IQ is necessarily required to be part of a championship team.


Sure, I think he probably has low basketball IQ.

But all those players I mentioned have been compared to Bailey and they also have low basketball IQ. It didn't prevent them from carving out roles on championship teams.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1826 » by Kobblehead » Sat May 17, 2025 11:14 am

Drake Powell makes a lot of sense at #35 as a pure upside selection. His 7 foot wingspan gives him some lineup versatility to play some F minutes down the line.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1827 » by Iverson Armband » Sat May 17, 2025 11:33 am

Tre Johnson is one of the most smooth, polished 18 year olds I have ever seen.
always a jump shot away.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1828 » by Stanford » Sat May 17, 2025 11:41 am

Damn, I sure do wish we had the third pick in a draft that let us dream bigger than Andrew Wiggins, Harrison Barnes, and Michael Porter Jr.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1829 » by ExplosionsInDaSky » Sat May 17, 2025 11:57 am

Stanford wrote:Damn, I sure do wish we had the third pick in a draft that let us dream bigger than Andrew Wiggins, Harrison Barnes, and Michael Porter Jr.


To be fair, Wiggins was considered a generational talent, and MPJ was in talks to go number one overall before the back injury.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1830 » by ProcessDoctor » Sat May 17, 2025 12:02 pm

The average number of All-Stars produced per NBA Draft from 2000-2020 is between 5 and 6. That includes guys like Bradley Beal, who many of us think sucks. That includes our own Ben Simmons. It's much more likely to draft a role player or bust than an All-Star.

You must have a degree of luck in addition to scouting and talent evaluation to get this right. For all we know, Ace could be better than those players above, or he could be Michael Beasley. VJ Edgecombe could be Jarred Springer or D-Wade. We really don't know and just have to trust Morey to go through the process and find out.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1831 » by Kobblehead » Sat May 17, 2025 12:09 pm

I keep coming back to, we're not going to be in position to draft the #2 SF prospect again for quite a while. That's my biggest hangup with the idea of passing up on Ace.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1832 » by MVP1992 » Sat May 17, 2025 12:56 pm

How do we keep the #3 and get Brooklyn's #19 pick? Or someone else's pick in the 18 thru 22nd range?
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1833 » by sodmoraes » Sat May 17, 2025 12:58 pm

Kobblehead wrote:I keep coming back to, we're not going to be in position to draft the #2 SF prospect again for quite a while. That's my biggest hangup with the idea of passing up on Ace.


Yes, sometimes you just should pick the prospect with the most potential and hope for the best, instead of trying to be cute and trade down. If he´s not all that we thought he could be, it happens,its part of the draft game. But its better than pass on him and later he becames a star in another team, when we knew he made all the sense to our team.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1834 » by Negrodamus » Sat May 17, 2025 1:12 pm

I think the saving grace is that Morey and Co do create models that project where each of these athletes project to land based on statistical analysis and Ace has a bad statistical base to frame around. Tre, Fears, and Queen have the most indicators as future stars: ballhandling, high usage, assist generation, high percentages from their respective scoring locations.

VJ, Kon are fringe due to self creation.

Ace has a gigantic ISO possession percentile but was very inefficient in those shots. Also with all those ISOs, he’s not a distributor at all.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1835 » by 76ciology » Sat May 17, 2025 1:35 pm

sodmoraes wrote:
Kobblehead wrote:I keep coming back to, we're not going to be in position to draft the #2 SF prospect again for quite a while. That's my biggest hangup with the idea of passing up on Ace.


Yes, sometimes you just should pick the prospect with the most potential and hope for the best, instead of trying to be cute and trade down. If he´s not all that we thought he could be, it happens,its part of the draft game. But its better than pass on him and later he becames a star in another team, when we knew he made all the sense to our team.


How can you be so sure he has the most potential?

I’ve never seen a star who entered the league with numbers this bad, limited shot creation ability, bad FT% and such a low basketball IQ.

If anything, I’ll end up regretting not passing on him, especially when all the indicators suggest he’s unlikely to become a star in the league.

If you’re betting purely on upside, then Maluach or Demin are the picks. Both have elite size for their positions and solid foundational skill sets to build on.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1836 » by Negrodamus » Sat May 17, 2025 1:58 pm

I just look at Kelly Oubre’s numbers coming into the league and he had a similar mindset at Kansas of being a gunner (except he drew fouls). Terrible at generating assists. It took him 8 years to figure out how to be a role player after being one of the “stars” on losing teams. I’m just not interested in that.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1837 » by sodmoraes » Sat May 17, 2025 2:18 pm

76ciology wrote:
sodmoraes wrote:
Kobblehead wrote:I keep coming back to, we're not going to be in position to draft the #2 SF prospect again for quite a while. That's my biggest hangup with the idea of passing up on Ace.


Yes, sometimes you just should pick the prospect with the most potential and hope for the best, instead of trying to be cute and trade down. If he´s not all that we thought he could be, it happens,its part of the draft game. But its better than pass on him and later he becames a star in another team, when we knew he made all the sense to our team.


How can you be so sure he has the most potential?

I’ve never seen a star who entered the league with numbers this bad, limited shot creation ability, bad FT% and such a low basketball IQ.

If anything, I’ll end up regretting not passing on him, especially when all the indicators suggest he’s unlikely to become a star in the league.

If you’re betting purely on upside, then Maluach or Demin are the picks. Both have elite size for their positions and solid foundational skill sets to build on.


You are right, i cant be sure that he has the most potential, but he displayed a lot of elite traits that show he can be a star: defense, athletic abilities, shooting etc. But you got a point, his advanced numbers arent good. Stats are important, but i think, in some cases, you gotta take them with a grain of salt. If not, the analitics guys would already developed models that could predict if a player would be a star, and the draft would be a exact science, but its not. So that why you got scouts, who seek for elite traits, and , in my opinion, Ace has alot of the traits you seek in a Wing.

Like i said above,the thing about stats is that it they may be flawed in a lot of levels, specially in the context we have in the NBA. I like to fancy myself as a stats guy (I got an PHD in economics), and in my thesis i used a lot of econometrics, which is like applied stats in the context of economy( when you have models with a lot of variables). There we have a problem, in a lot of models, thats is called Multicolinearity, that happens when a variable of your model is affected by other variables of the model, which can seriously affect the predictive power of your model. I think we have a similar problem in the nba, since a lot of stats we use depend of other variables. The most common one is that a lot of stats of the players are impacted by the stats of other players they play with. Basically, thats a fancy way to say that if you play with bad teammates, your stats will be bad. Thats, in my opinion, is what happened with Bailey in his season at Rutgers. If he played in a better team, i believe a lot of his advanced stats would be better( because his teammates would be better) and we wouldnt be having this conversation about his inefficiency.

Dont get me wrong, stats are important in the nba, but sometimes you gotta see the context of the player, and thats when the scout team is important. If they think Bailey has the important skills to succeed in the next level, i think we will draft him, even if his advanced stats are bad. I believe we will, since we saw a lot of videos showing that he has a lot of potential as a shot maker and defender, and is already a good CS from 3 and a good blocker.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1838 » by Stanford » Sat May 17, 2025 2:30 pm

Respect to RealGM's Derek Bodner for calling out the Don't Overthink It cult on his podcast!
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1839 » by Negrodamus » Sat May 17, 2025 2:36 pm

I said it kinda in a way to make a point earlier, but I think we’ll see Will Riley sneak into the top ten. If he wasn’t a near zero on defense, he’d be top five. He was 60% 2FG at the end of the year. Totally peaked in Feb, March. Ball handling chops and foul generation at that height is impressive. I believe in the shot. Reminds me a little of Ingram in college.
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Re: 2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft 

Post#1840 » by FireMorey » Sat May 17, 2025 3:04 pm

The talk that I don't get is Kon Knueppel. You don't have a season that awful and get the #3 pick to come away with Kon freaking Knueppel, I'm sorry.

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