The OFFICIAL "Was the 2025 NBA draft rigged?"

[BmanInBigD]

Still 85% dumb as hell. What a shame i expected better from this forum. The GB is actually dumber than reddit hahahah

Whatever the outcome would be in the lottery you would have called it rigged.

Silver made it way too obvious this time.. like wow is he that dumb? Lmao.. … you moved Luka to l.a to try and get LeBron his 5th and failed , all along handing the mavs the 1st round pick in return for a wink wink favor under the table type deal and showing the fans your actions and intentions.. the best thing about this whole ordeal is that the league has failed to get LeBron his 5th.. Jordan got 6x in 12 years.. LeBron got 3 in 20 yrs.. and the Mickey Mouse trophy in Orlando if u wanna count it.. he’s not on Kobe’s level , much less Jordan’s.

This is crazy....the Mavs rushed AD back from injury to try and make the PS, then he got hurt and Kyrie busted his ass with huge minutes, to the point of injury, then they got to the play-in, won a game, before finally losing and being able to be in the lottery. That doesn't sound like a very sound plan to be in the lottery, lol. And you expect me to believe that 32 owners, GM's, etc would go along with this charade for decades, when some of these teams/owners have NEVER benefitted from this fraud? If you think all the mega-billionaires are gonna go along with all this for some ratings increases and a little more dough, well, you just have no idea how these guys operate. Sure, they like money, but they wanna WIN. The amount of people, including the accounting firm of EY, that would have to stay silent about this for decades has to be in the thousands by now. But, yeah, ok, conspiracy.

[MrGoat]

how come Lakers never won #1 pick in the post Kobe/pre Lebron years? they have had higher chance of winning #1 than many recent teams that won #1 picks.

Just looking at the #1 pick is lazy without context. They're the Lakers, they don't build through the draft, they can poach talent from other teams after it's developed.

Let's look at all seven of the draft years they were in the lottery:

2019 the NBA owed New Orleans the #1 pick for shipping AD to the Lakers. The Lakers jumped up to #4 in that draft despite having only the 11th worst record and they picked DeAndre Hunter who they ended up shipping immediately to Atlanta to facilitate the AD trade

2017 they jumped up to #2 and got Lavar and Lonzo Ball. Markelle Fultz was the #1 pick.

2016 they had the 2nd worst record and got the #2 pick Brandon Ingram. Ben Simmons was the #1 pick, another bullet dodged

2015 Lakers only jumped up to #2 again, Minnesota was given the #1 pick because they had just had the worst record in the league and were owed a favor for trading Kevin Love to LeBron and the Cavs

2014 the Lakers actually didn't jump this time and picked Julius Randle. Cleveland had just added LeBron James after he left Miami and so they were given the #1 pick. Cleveland picked Andrew Wiggins and traded him to Minnesota as part of the Kevin Love trade

1993 and 1994 the Lakers did not move up, but this was the Jordan era, the Lakers were more irrelevant then

[scrabbarista]

It's dropped to 84%... the tide is turning!!!!

[Deivork]

I wanted to get a feel of this board on this.

[Wingy]

Search is yo friend.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2458304

[sp6r=underrated]

There should be an option for definitely not. Anyway I'll repost what I wrote in another thread on this topic. Long story short if you believe the NBA fixes the lottery you shouldn't care about the NBA.

Spoiler:

Some problems can be fixed. The NBA had a problem where the game had become too tilted towards defenses so they changed the rules post-2004 and the game became more balanced. MLB had a problem where games were becoming too long so they introduced a pitch clock. Game time has gone down significantly since the change.

But other problems are unfixable. The Conspiracy Theory about the NBA is that the owners working through the commissioner manipulates trades and the draft to ensure the Lakers are a perpetual contender and also other preferred teams selectively benefit.

If this conspiracy is true the NBA's current owners, commissioner, former owners, key management personnel and business partners have engaged in a multi-decade conspiracy to defraud customers. The conspirators are so powerful they've managed a multi-decade conspiracy without any evidence for the conspiracy leaking out.

If this is true the NBA is unfixable because the entire institution of the NBA is corrupt. So if you believe in the conspiracy you shouldn't care about the NBA.

[NyKnicks1714]

Search is yo friend.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2458304

Yeah but I do kind of want to see how much of that was just a passing emotional response.

[Prince187]

What are the odds that a team that inexplicably does something with a .00001% chance of happening (Luka trade) also wins the lottery the same year they only have a 1.8% chance of winning it?

[RoyceDa59]

I don’t see how it possibly could be.

[Yoshun]

I don't, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is either. It's not that far fetched.

[youngcrev]

I like your poll options.

My go to answer is "probably not, but it's fun to talk about"

[jazzfan1971]

What are the odds that a team that inexplicably does something with a .00001% chance of happening (Luka trade) also wins the lottery the same year they only have a 1.8% chance of winning it?

.00000018%

[Deivork]

There should be an option for definitely not. Anyway I'll repost what I wrote in another thread on this topic. Long story short if you believe the NBA fixes the lottery you shouldn't care about the NBA.

Spoiler:

Some problems can be fixed. The NBA had a problem where the game had become too tilted towards defenses so they changed the rules post-2004 and the game became more balanced. MLB had a problem where games were becoming too long so they introduced a pitch clock. Game time has gone down significantly since the change.

But other problems are unfixable. The Conspiracy Theory about the NBA is that the owners working through the commissioner manipulates trades and the draft to ensure the Lakers are a perpetual contender and also other preferred teams selectively benefit.

If this conspiracy is true the NBA's current owners, commissioner, former owners, key management personnel and business partners have engaged in a multi-decade conspiracy to defraud customers. The conspirators are so powerful they've managed a multi-decade conspiracy without any evidence for the conspiracy leaking out.

If this is true the NBA is unfixable because the entire institution of the NBA is corrupt. So if you believe in the conspiracy you shouldn't care about the NBA.

Weak reasoning imo

[Hornet Mania]

I think it's unlikely but I no longer entirely rule it out.

And for the point of argument I also don't think the 'conspiracy' has to be all-encompassing (all lottos are not necessarily rigged) or that the beneficiaries would even necessarily need to know they were going to be awarded the pick. That seems to be something a lot of debunkers assume would be the case, but it wouldn't have to be.

Overall I lean against it being rigged because of complexity problems. The incredible results, not just this year but multiple times in the past, that defy statistical probability do give me pause.

[bisme37]

When you buy a lottery ticket you have vastly worse odds than any team in the draft lottery, and some fat ass wins that thing every week. That's how it goes with random draws. The results can feel random.

[SkyHook]

Do I think that this lottery was rigged? Most likely not. The result is not some astronomically rare possibility. Why am I not 100% certain? Because I'm convinced that the league has rigged the lottery in the past and that they are not above trying to do so again.

[FrodoFraggins]

I understand why it looks super sketchy with several drafts going back to the one after AD was traded to LA. And I 100% believe the Ewing draft was rigged with the bent corner and maybe even a chilled envelope.

But the likelihood of Ernst & Young being fooled, or even crazier being in on it, is just microscopic. Losing all credibility over a drop in the bucket deal with the NBA just makes zero sense.

And if the NBA wanted to rig it, why hire E&Y in the first place?

Also, once the small market teams get a whiff of actual fixing all hell will break loose.

[basketballwacko2]

I wanted to get a feel of this board on this.

IDK but it stinks to high heaven when all 3 of the top spots went to teams with better records.

I'd change one thing for sure only the bottom 8 records get in the lotto. Make it so the top 2 have the highest probability of getting it instead of an equal 12.5% give the top 2 17.5% the other 6 get descending odds from 12.5 down.

Like this worst to best of the 8. I think this would discourage tanking.

1. 17.5%
2. 17.5
3. 12.5
4. 12.5
5. 10
6. 10
7. 10
8. 10

[TheShow2021]

The rich and powerful are much more audacious in their lying/ cheating/ stealing than most would suspect, especially the ilk that runs the NBA.

[basketballwacko2]

I don’t see how it possibly could be.

I don't like that it is done behind closed doors.