2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Black Mage]

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I am once again left wondering if I'm taking crazy pills being this high on a prospect. I'll keep referencing Shai: he reacts to what the defense gives him and he's never sped up. Offensively, he's the total package. Finishes with both hands, drives with both hands. Defensively, he produces deflections and is disruptive. When not sucking wind, he has shown the agility and quickness to defend guards. He's so obviously the 3rd best player in the draft to me and we're all talking about a guy who refuses to pass nor get to the rim, but rather take fadeaway mid range shots with 2 guys in his face. It's perplexing to me.

I really liked watching Queen in college; I just don't believe he can do that against NBA level defenses. What position exactly do you play him at?

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Extremely similar players.

I don't see that really. I get Sengun played international; but his stats and shooting % were so much better than Queen's. FG% 64.6 for Sengun to just 52.6 for Queen.

[stormi]

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ace-bailey--josh-jackson--jayson-tatum--jaylen-brown

Ace, Jaylen, Josh Jackson, Tatum.

Look at the whole thing, then focus on Jackson vs Brown. The draft is truly a crapshoot.

Seems pretty straightforward, no?

osh ackson had a fugazi 3P%, easy to see that shot was never translating with the minimal 3PA rate and the horrid FT%. Mechanics were busted and that was easy to see on tape as well.

Tatum attempted the most threes, was an elite FT shooter and was the most efficient. That combined with his defensive numbers and the fact that he looked like Carmelo Anthony at Duke should have been more than enough to stamp him as a legit wing scorer at the next level.

Brown and Ace are littered with red dots, two projects, however Brown had rare free throw generation numbers which have always been an indicator in determining self creation ability and upside.

Disgr"ace" has nothing to stand on compared to those other three outside of rebounding.

[Black Mage]

Are we absolutely sure Essengue doesn’t belong on this giant 3+ tier too as a lower usage upside option?

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He's my #5 player in the class. This is actual upside substantiated on more than RCSI, a cool name and athleticism.

At 17, Noa Essengue had 20/8/3/2 on 3/6 3P & 5/6 FT against an NBA Team. Also only 18.5 on draft night.

Someone's getting a steal if he falls out of the top five.

29% 3 pt shooting... I'm out. Everything else looks nice; but if you can't shoot the 3 and you play any position besides C; I'm not going to use a Top 5 pick on that player.

[stormi]

Are we absolutely sure Essengue doesn’t belong on this giant 3+ tier too as a lower usage upside option?

Read on Twitter

He's my #5 player in the class. This is actual upside substantiated on more than RCSI, a cool name and athleticism.

At 17, Noa Essengue had 20/8/3/2 on 3/6 3P & 5/6 FT against an NBA Team. Also only 18.5 on draft night.

Someone's getting a steal if he falls out of the top five.

29% 3 pt shooting... I'm out. Everything else looks nice; but if you can't shoot the 3 and you play any position besides C; I'm not going to use a Top 5 pick on that player.

That's fair, I personally buy more into FT% and the willingness to shoot them than raw 3P% when eval'ing shooting talent.

What I like about Essengue is that he displayed feel & defense in a pro league as a 17 year old. Still growing and his FT generation is really enticing long term.

This is the upside swing at F imo.

[Negrodamus]

I really liked watching Queen in college; I just don't believe he can do that against NBA level defenses. What position exactly do you play him at?

Watch on YouTube

Extremely similar players.

I don't see that really. I get Sengun played international; but his stats and shooting % were so much better than Queen's. FG% 64.6 for Sengun to just 52.6 for Queen.

I really can't speak to that. I know nothing about Beşiktaş Icrypex 2020-2021 schedule, level of competition, how much the guys around him took pressure off him getting doubled, etc.

I'm sure Queen shot an unbelievable FG% at Montverde because he was surrounded by 10% of this year's first round.

[Jojothewhale]

Are we absolutely sure Essengue doesn’t belong on this giant 3+ tier too as a lower usage upside option?

Read on Twitter

He's my #5 player in the class. This is actual upside substantiated on more than RCSI, a cool name and athleticism.

At 17, Noa Essengue had 20/8/3/2 on 3/6 3P & 5/6 FT against an NBA Team. Also only 18.5 on draft night.

Someone's getting a steal if he falls out of the top five.

29% 3 pt shooting... I'm out. Everything else looks nice; but if you can't shoot the 3 and you play any position besides C; I'm not going to use a Top 5 pick on that player.

73% from the line is a good sign that the shot can come. Generally, it’s FT% > 3P% as a projection indicator.

You might remember that from some Maxey discussion when he was drafted. IIRC he was at 29% from 3, but 80ish% from the line.

[Black Mage]

Watch on YouTube

28/5/8 in a game where Coop got hurt and scored two points.

IQ and feel for the game is "star upside", it's not a euphemism for the fastest track sprinter

Who are the three Kon voters in the poll? I'm assuming mjkvol is one

As someone who hates Ace, I can't even begin to understand why you like Kon.

He couldn't beat anyone off the dribble. That video was more of a highlight reel for Maluach and how often he bailed out Kon.

Minimal dribble moves/handle. Gets low allowing defenders to swallow him up. Limited athleticism (which is why I think he dodged the combine). He LOOKS slow. 21% USG rate and yet 2.7 assists when he could feed it to Maluach. I mean you're killing Ace for 1.3 assists a game; I guarantee Ace gets at least 2 assists a game if he had a center like Maluach to play with.

[zaz102]

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ace-bailey--josh-jackson--jayson-tatum--jaylen-brown

Ace, Jaylen, Josh Jackson, Tatum.

Look at the whole thing, then focus on Jackson vs Brown. The draft is truly a crapshoot.

Seems pretty straightforward, no?

osh ackson had a fugazi 3P%, easy to see that shot was never translating with the minimal 3PA rate and the horrid FT%. Mechanics were busted and that was easy to see on tape as well.

Tatum attempted the most threes, was an elite FT shooter and was the most efficient. That combined with his defensive numbers and the fact that he looked like Carmelo Anthony at Duke should have been more than enough to stamp him as a legit wing scorer at the next level.

Brown and Ace are littered with red dots, two projects, however Brown had rare free throw generation numbers which have always been an indicator in determining self creation ability and upside.

Disgr"ace" has nothing to stand on compared to those other three outside of rebounding.

Ace shot more 3s at a higher percentage than Tatum. His free throw numbers were bad, but I read he was a 90% FT shooter in high school.

[Black Mage]

Read on Twitter

He's my #5 player in the class. This is actual upside substantiated on more than RCSI, a cool name and athleticism.

At 17, Noa Essengue had 20/8/3/2 on 3/6 3P & 5/6 FT against an NBA Team. Also only 18.5 on draft night.

Someone's getting a steal if he falls out of the top five.

29% 3 pt shooting... I'm out. Everything else looks nice; but if you can't shoot the 3 and you play any position besides C; I'm not going to use a Top 5 pick on that player.

73% from the line is a good sign that the shot can come. Generally, it’s FT% > 3P% as a projection indicator.

You might remember that from some Maxey discussion when he was drafted. IIRC he was at 29% from 3, but 80ish% from the line.

Noa is at 2 attempts a game (rounding up). Also 83% FT is a big difference from 71%.

Maxey also went 21st in the draft, not top 5. I'm not saying Noa isn't a nice prospect, but he's not a Top5 for me if he doesn't have a semblance of a 3 pt shoot in his bag right now.

[stormi]

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ace-bailey--josh-jackson--jayson-tatum--jaylen-brown

Ace, Jaylen, Josh Jackson, Tatum.

Look at the whole thing, then focus on Jackson vs Brown. The draft is truly a crapshoot.

Seems pretty straightforward, no?

osh ackson had a fugazi 3P%, easy to see that shot was never translating with the minimal 3PA rate and the horrid FT%. Mechanics were busted and that was easy to see on tape as well.

Tatum attempted the most threes, was an elite FT shooter and was the most efficient. That combined with his defensive numbers and the fact that he looked like Carmelo Anthony at Duke should have been more than enough to stamp him as a legit wing scorer at the next level.

Brown and Ace are littered with red dots, two projects, however Brown had rare free throw generation numbers which have always been an indicator in determining self creation ability and upside.

Disgr"ace" has nothing to stand on compared to those other three outside of rebounding.

Ace shot more 3s at a higher percentage than Tatum. His free throw numbers were bad, but I read he was a 90% FT shooter in high school.

Tatum had the greatest 3PA Rate there, but it was close.

I need to see some evidence on this wives tale about Ace's 90% FT shooting in HS. It's heading down a dark path of conspiracy alongside Wilt's 100 point game.

[Black Mage]

Just stumbled upon this little gem, it provides high school data.

https://www.maxpreps.com/

::EDIT::

This link has bio's for a lot of the guys we're looking at and how they did in H.S. (including some for next year's draft).

https://www.maxpreps.com/news/SmnOJqiXKEqtAV0mqf7K2A/2023-24-maxpreps-all-america-team-dylan-harper-of-don-bosco-prep-headlines-high-school-basketballs-best.htm

::EDIT EDIT::

6-8 | Wing | Senior | Rutgers signee
Regarded as the No. 2 prospect in the Class of 2024 according to 247Sports, Bailey averaged 32.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.4 blocks per contest against a schedule that included nine nationally-ranked foes. Bailey piled up 40 or more points and 19 or more rebounds in the same game three times and led the Indians (26-6) to the No. 13 spot in the final MaxPreps Top 25.

[stormi]

Watch on YouTube

28/5/8 in a game where Coop got hurt and scored two points.

IQ and feel for the game is "star upside", it's not a euphemism for the fastest track sprinter

Who are the three Kon voters in the poll? I'm assuming mjkvol is one

As someone who hates Ace, I can't even begin to understand why you like Kon.

He couldn't beat anyone off the dribble. That video was more of a highlight reel for Maluach and how often he bailed out Kon.

Minimal dribble moves/handle. Gets low allowing defenders to swallow him up. Limited athleticism (which is why I think he dodged the combine). He LOOKS slow. 21% USG rate and yet 2.7 assists when he could feed it to Maluach. I mean you're killing Ace for 1.3 assists a game; I guarantee Ace gets at least 2 assists a game if he had a center like Maluach to play with.

Yea I really like Kon.

Everything about his track record and his trajectory at Duke was impressive to me. He's a special shooter in a scaled down role and showed huge creation upside as his role as a primary scorer increased.

Dominant scorer in EYBL, elite feel and processing.

Desmond Bane level player at the next level, so a #3 on a champ team.

[Negrodamus]

Jayson shot 85% from FT and the form was pure (I actually liked it better back then than now).

Not saying I don't like Ace's form (I do), but shooting 68% does raise questions about how tight and replicable it is. It's the type of thing that made 65% FT shooting Markelle to make some adjustments to his shot heading into training camp...

[Jojothewhale]

29% 3 pt shooting... I'm out. Everything else looks nice; but if you can't shoot the 3 and you play any position besides C; I'm not going to use a Top 5 pick on that player.

73% from the line is a good sign that the shot can come. Generally, it’s FT% > 3P% as a projection indicator.

You might remember that from some Maxey discussion when he was drafted. IIRC he was at 29% from 3, but 80ish% from the line.

Noa is at 2 attempts a game (rounding up). Also 83% FT is a big difference from 71%.

Maxey also went 21st in the draft, not top 5. I'm not saying Noa isn't a nice prospect, but he's not a Top5 for me if he doesn't have a semblance of a 3 pt shoot in his bag right now.

Oh 71 and 83 are materially different for sure. I’m just saying that we shouldn’t label him a non-shooter yet. He’s never, ever going to have the developmental curve of Maxey’s shot.

Although the one thing I would say is that this top 3 and top 5 stuff is arbitrary and clouds the discussion. Either he’s your BPA when you’re up or he’s not. You’re only comping him to the guys in his draft class. If you like one of those guys better, fair enough. But whether he’s a worse prospect than whatever your or my idea of a top 5 guy is doesn’t matter at all.

[stormi]

In the second half of the season (25 games) Kon was finishing 73%(!) at the rim & 90% long-two makes unassisted

Had an offensive rebounding % of 6.1 and steal rate of 2.5%, for some context-- athletics is one of Ace's few crutches, his numbers for the season were an offensive rebounding % of 7.0 and steal rate of 1.7%.

He's getting docked for aura and complexion tax in the same way Ace is benefiting from them.

Kon's also a rare shooter, it's a shame he doesn't have an extra two inches on that wingspan.

Still my #4 player in the class however.

[Black Mage]

In the second half of the season (25 games) Kon was finishing 73% at the rim & 90% long-two makes unassisted

His OREB% jumped to 6.1 and STL to 2.5%, for some context, considering athletics is one of Ace's few crutches, his numbers for the season were 7.0 OREB% and 1.7 STL%.

He's getting docked for aura and complexion tax in the same way Ace is benefiting from them.

Kon's also a rare shooter, it's a shame he doesn't have an extra two inches on that wingspan.

Still my #4 player in the class however.

I'm not docking Kon for being white. I'm docking him in that watching that tape he wasn't impressive. He relied on a monstrosity at center to receive a lot of toss ups that I could have thrown. You put Kon on Rutgers and he would have floundered worse than Ace, easily.

[stormi]

In the second half of the season (25 games) Kon was finishing 73% at the rim & 90% long-two makes unassisted

His OREB% jumped to 6.1 and STL to 2.5%, for some context, considering athletics is one of Ace's few crutches, his numbers for the season were 7.0 OREB% and 1.7 STL%.

He's getting docked for aura and complexion tax in the same way Ace is benefiting from them.

Kon's also a rare shooter, it's a shame he doesn't have an extra two inches on that wingspan.

Still my #4 player in the class however.

I'm not docking Kon for being white. I'm docking him in that watching that tape he wasn't impressive. He relied on a monstrosity at center to receive a lot of toss ups that I could have thrown. You put Kon on Rutgers and he would have floundered worse than Ace, easily.

I just don't like this excuse when Harper thrived at Rutgers.

It's too many excuses for me to feel comfortable using a top three pick on a maybe and a project.

[Stanford]

I'm docking Kon for being white.

[stormi]

Just stumbled upon this little gem, it provides high school data.

https://www.maxpreps.com/

::EDIT::

This link has bio's for a lot of the guys we're looking at and how they did in H.S. (including some for next year's draft).

https://www.maxpreps.com/news/SmnOJqiXKEqtAV0mqf7K2A/2023-24-maxpreps-all-america-team-dylan-harper-of-don-bosco-prep-headlines-high-school-basketballs-best.htm

::EDIT EDIT::

6-8 | Wing | Senior | Rutgers signee
Regarded as the No. 2 prospect in the Class of 2024 according to 247Sports, Bailey averaged 32.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.4 blocks per contest against a schedule that included nine nationally-ranked foes. Bailey piled up 40 or more points and 19 or more rebounds in the same game three times and led the Indians (26-6) to the No. 13 spot in the final MaxPreps Top 25.

Good find. I'll tap into this. Those numbers are monstrous lol

[eyeatoma]

Jayson shot 85% from FT and the form was pure (I actually liked it better back then than now).

Not saying I don't like Ace's form (I do), but shooting 68% does raise questions about how tight and replicable it is. It's the type of thing that made 65% FT shooting Markelle to make some adjustments to his shot heading into training camp...

From what I heard he had a few bad games to start the season, and then it went back up.