Capn'O wrote:ballzboyee wrote:It's hard to really judge this Knicks team. Detroit almost took them to seven games, and they very easily could have lost that series as every game was decided by a couple of points. After blowing multiple 20+ point leads I think it's basically a borderline miracle that Boston did not eliminate them. You have to give them credit for storming back, but nine times out of ten that's not happening, especially on the road. Also the Knicks getting blown out by a Boston team that not only did not have Tatum but also with Porzingis basically not being able play is very troubling. I think Porz played 12 minutes and had like 1 point. How do they get blown out by that Boston team in a close-out game? Knicks were a .500 team after the all-star game. Their overall record is not that great when you realize they got swept against nearly ever good team they played in the regular season. They were 0-4 against Boston, 0-4 against Cleveland, 0-2 against OKC, 0-2 vs Clippers, 0-2 vs Warriors, 0-2 vs Lakers, etc. They had so few quality wins in the RS. They padded their record through by beating up on the worst teams in the league in the East like the Wizards, Toronto, 76ers, Charlotte, Miami, etc. They basically had to sweep all of those teams otherwise they are a sub forty-five win squad.
On paper this Knicks teams is ever so slightly above average. Definitely not an elite team. Maybe they are just getting hot at the right moment or maybe they matchup well with the Pacers and this carries them to the Finals. But, generally, teams are what their regular season record reflects, especially when you starting talking about tier one matchups in the playoffs. Pacers closed the season on fire and were 20-9 after the all-star break. Pacers lost three of four against the Bucks in the RS and in the playoffs almost swept them. Cleveland actually did not play bad at all n their series against Indiana, the Pacers just displayed a flawless brand of unbeatable basketball. They were just utterly dominant. The series against Cleveland was an insane display of masterful coaching and execution at all levels.
In summary, a lot red flags in my book for the Knicks. I'll take the Pacers to win in six or seven games.
What it's looking to me like is that the Knicks paced themselves during the regular season for a deep playoff run. We didn't really see this level of defensive intensity all year and Thibs didn't really run diverse gameplans the way he has in the playoffs. We didn't have Mitchell Robinson until March and he took awhile to ramp up. While technically a role player, he's been really critical to what we've done defensively this playoffs and when he's in we're back to being the elite offensive rebounding team we were last season. When he did come back, we didn't have Brunson so still not a full arsenal. Then, Detroit was a great tuneup. Not star studded but a very tough team that can stay in any game with their defense, and with an up and coming star player who I think is going to plant himself firmly in the Top 10 next season.
So this isn't really the same team you saw and the regular season data is not really looking at the team we see before us now. They're finally fully healthy and Brunson is performing at a level that he previously held back from so we didn't burnout early like last season.
I guess that I could be accused of "cherry picking," but I have never heard team going 0-16 against tier 1 competition in order to pace themselves. I get what you are saying. If I am Knick's fan I am not hanging my hat over sweeping Memphs and the Bucks, lol. Taking the Nuggets series in a sweep was impressive, and like I said they did take season series against Pacers. Even if you take those positive series into account, the Knicks still had very lopsided losing record against teams that had dominant arcs throughout the season. They also got blown out a lot. Many of their losses were by double digits.
On the other hand, Memphis and the Bucks were very up and down and dysfunctional. Denver too in my opinion, but they have the best player in the league. I guess the question is whether or not their level is closer to that 0-16 record during the RS against those dominant teams or if their true level right now is somehow reflected in their improbable and fluke win over Boston in which they had to come from behind twice on the road when they were down by 20. Throw in Tatum blowing his Achilles in the back end of the series with Boston having two home games left, it all gets murkier. And by "fluke" I don't mean it in a pejorative way, but in the sense I honestly don't know if those circumstances have ever before happened to a 60-win team. I am pretty sure they have not. I have to believe that we re-simulated the exact same scenario 100 times, the Knicks lose 90 percent of the time. First of all, Boston's best player doesn't blow out his Achilles and second of all when a team goes down by 20 on the road in playoff game most of the time the win probability drops to single digits. To win to both of those games so that Boston can't force a game 7 at home is a fluke.