2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Walton1one]

Some offseason situations from other teams' to monitor:

DENVER - Facing cap crunch, Braun a RFA after next season, they are sitting on approx $190 salary in 26/27 for (5) players, Tax\1st\2nd = $205\$215\$$228 - Braun is probably on the $20-30 range? Something has to give. Have to image one of the big contracts out (or Braun?) in exchange for depth?

“We definitely need to figure out a way to get more depth,” Jokić said. “It seems like the teams that have longer rotations, the longer benches, are the ones winning. You look at Indiana and OKC and Minnesota, and they have been great examples of that.” – via New York Times

BOSTON - Certainly looks like there will be some players on the move this offseason, Jrue Holiday & Porzingis seem most likely.

The Celtics’ precise determination to keep their various veterans is difficult to calculate so soon after the defending champions’ Round 2 exit to the Knicks in six games and the devastating loss of Jayson Tatum to an Achilles rupture, but the early projections in circulation suggest Boston is more apt to make Jrue Holiday available via trade this offseason than Derrick White. Most rival teams continue to regard Kristaps Porziņģis as the most movable Boston vet thanks to the Latvian big man’s $30.7 million expiring contract. Porziņģis, though, managed to exceed 20 minutes in only one of the Celtics’ games in the New York series because of a perplexing energy-sapping illness that has plagued him since March. – via marcsteinsubstack.com

The Celtics’ precise determination to keep their various veterans is difficult to calculate so soon after the defending champions’ Round 2 exit to the Knicks in six games and the devastating loss of Jayson Tatum to an Achilles rupture, but the early projections in circulation suggest Boston is more apt to make Jrue Holiday available via trade this offseason than Derrick White. Most rival teams continue to regard Kristaps Porziņģis as the most movable Boston vet thanks to the Latvian big man’s $30.7 million expiring contract. Porziņģis, though, managed to exceed 20 minutes in only one of the Celtics’ games in the New York series because of a perplexing energy-sapping illness that has plagued him since March.– via Marc Stein @ marcstein.substack.com

CLEVELAND - Not totally unexpected given CLE cap issues, but Ty Jerome may be playing in a new city next year...

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MILWAUKEE - Something to monitor, does MIL bring in some of the top draft prospects to work out? Apparently that is the plan. If that does happen that could be a big neon sign for Giannis

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/history

[Walton1one]

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[DusterBuster]

One thing I haven't seen talked about much here yet, I wonder if the "value" of the Celtics unprotected 2029 pick has increased? New ownership, Tatum's injury... they're seemingly in store for a mini-rebuilding and probably punting on next season to clear books and get a high pick during the Tatum rehab season... that picks range variance is now just as high as it would be for the Bucks if they move Giannis this year.

[BlazersBroncos]

One thing I haven't seen talked about much here yet, I wonder if the "value" of the Celtics unprotected 2029 pick has increased? New ownership, Tatum's injury... they're seemingly in store for a mini-rebuilding and probably punting on next season to clear books and get a high pick during the Tatum rehab season... that picks range variance is now just as high as it would be for the Bucks if they move Giannis this year.

I think it has - and I really hope we dont cash those lotto tickets (The BOS and MIL picks / swaps) in a short sighted move to become a play-in team.

[dckingsfan]

Spoiler:

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I think what you are getting at is that in 2026-27 we could have a lot of cap room. There will be a bunch of RFAs where the teams don't want to match given their cap dilemmas.

This is an extremely good point. Come up with your list of RFAs against cap strapped teams and there you have it. Not extending Ayton, Simons and Sharpe (and of course Williams) will give us some amazing flexibility in that year. We can have our FRP, Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan & Toumani Camara under contract and maybe Thybulle as well. We can then add our 25-26 or 26-27 FRP and a few of those RFAs.

IMO, your strategy is a much better strategy than resigning any of Ayton, Simons or Sharpe.

My 1/2 cent.

[zzaj]

One thing I haven't seen talked about much here yet, I wonder if the "value" of the Celtics unprotected 2029 pick has increased? New ownership, Tatum's injury... they're seemingly in store for a mini-rebuilding and probably punting on next season to clear books and get a high pick during the Tatum rehab season... that picks range variance is now just as high as it would be for the Bucks if they move Giannis this year.

I think it has - and I really hope we dont cash those lotto tickets (The BOS and MIL picks / swaps) in a short sighted move to become a play-in team.

Me too.

I said it at the time of the trade, but the picks and pick swaps if everything goes correctly could set up Portland to be a dynasty in the 2030s. With developed players on a (hopefully PO team) and incoming lotto picks to compliment what will then be NBA veterans.

However, the NBA is a 'what have you done for me lately' league...and with new ownership on the horizon, I don't doubt that Cronin may be wanting to fast-track his stupid playoffs-or-bust philosophy based on 10 a game hot streak vs. weak competition.

[DusterBuster]

One thing I haven't seen talked about much here yet, I wonder if the "value" of the Celtics unprotected 2029 pick has increased? New ownership, Tatum's injury... they're seemingly in store for a mini-rebuilding and probably punting on next season to clear books and get a high pick during the Tatum rehab season... that picks range variance is now just as high as it would be for the Bucks if they move Giannis this year.

I think it has - and I really hope we dont cash those lotto tickets (The BOS and MIL picks / swaps) in a short sighted move to become a play-in team.

See, I actually fully disagree. I do want those assets cashed out. With how the NBA has changed under the new CBA, teams windows have drastically shortened, as has their abilities to retool faster. On top of that, the East is pretty weak, so even if the Bucks are only a 35-ish win team by 2030 in the midst of their post-Giannis rebuild, that still could get them into the playoffs and have those picks fall out of the lottery. Same for the Celtics.

So yeah, I would be shopping those hard and using them in an impact trade if at all possible vs keeping them.

[Walton1one]

Spoiler:

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I think what you are getting at is that in 2026-27 we could have a lot of cap room. There will be a bunch of RFAs where the teams don't want to match given their cap dilemmas.

This is an extremely good point. Come up with your list of RFAs against cap strapped teams and there you have it. Not extending Ayton, Simons and Sharpe (and of course Williams) will give us some amazing flexibility in that year. We can have our FRP, Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan & Toumani Camara under contract and maybe Thybulle as well. We can then add our 25-26 or 26-27 FRP and a few of those RFAs.

IMO, your strategy is a much better strategy than resigning any of Ayton, Simons or Sharpe.

My 1/2 cent.

Yes and no, I think gambling on RFA is always a risky strategy, b\c at the end of the day, that team, tax\apron strapped or not, can always match and make moves elsewhere, not letting that asset get away for nothing. Now maybe POR might be able to work a S&T with a team for their RFA player, but just signing that player away from their team b\c they have the cap space to do so can happen but I can't recall it happening too often

What I was pointing out is that DEN is going to have to do something, I doubt they go into the 2nd apron, although they could for a year or so, more likely their MO has been to let players like Braun go and then backfill with players on their bench (Watson\Strawther), so if POR was proactive they could reach out to DEN, dangle the #11 (or maybe a future 1st instead?), agree to take on Nnaji's deal which would help DEN and maybe flip a Thybulle or Williams back to them, which help them next year but won't add to their long term salary issues.

But recognizing some teams that have impending cap issues and proactively trading for a guy like Braun or Watson or Mathurin (or another of IND players though many of them are on really nice team friendly deals) COULD be a strategy worth considering, provided the players POR is chasing match their players' timeline.

But to your point, RFA in 26/27 worth monitoring:

ATL\Dyson Daniels
CHA\Mark Williams
DET\Jaden Ivey
DET\Jalen Duran
DEN\Christian Braun
DEN\Peyton Watson
* Both Watson AND Braun up, if they don't unload MPJ or Gordan (I doubt anyone takes Murray @ his salary) something has to give here

HOU\Jabari Smith Jr
HOU\Tari Eason
IND\Benedict Mathurin
* Another team with potential issues, especially if they resign Turner, the team has stated they will not go into the tax, now maybe with back to back EC appearances they may reconsider

MIA\Nikola Jovic
* Jovic had a good year and fits that shooting\PF that POR could use to pair with Avdija\Camara

OKC\Chet Holmgren
OKC\Ousmane Dieng
OKC\Jalen Williams
OKC\Ajay Mitchell
* The butcher's bill comes due, I have thought for a while that OKC will keep their draft picks so they can keep restocking the cupboard when they lose players to FA

ORL\Paolo Banchero
* Note Simons contract would expire at same time, Banchero's impending contract extension might be a reason why they look to move now on their shooting need

SA\Jeremy Sochan
SAC\Keegan Murray
TOR\Ochai Agbaji
UTA\Walker Kessler

26/27 UFA of note
BOS\Porzingis
CHI\Coby White
DAL\Washington
DAL\Gafford
DET\Harris
HOU\Van Fleet
LAC\Harden, Powell
LAL\ Lebron, Hachimura, Finney-Smith,
MEM\Jaren Jackson Jr
MIL\Portis
MIN\Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Mike Conley
NO\McCollum
NY\Mikal Bridges, Mitchell Robinson
ORL\Mo Wagner
PHI\Oubre
PHX (for now)\Durant
SA\DeAaron Fox, Harrison Barnes
UTA\ John Collins, Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson
WAS\Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart

[dckingsfan]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

I think what you are getting at is that in 2026-27 we could have a lot of cap room. There will be a bunch of RFAs where the teams don't want to match given their cap dilemmas.

This is an extremely good point. Come up with your list of RFAs against cap strapped teams and there you have it. Not extending Ayton, Simons and Sharpe (and of course Williams) will give us some amazing flexibility in that year. We can have our FRP, Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan & Toumani Camara under contract and maybe Thybulle as well. We can then add our 25-26 or 26-27 FRP and a few of those RFAs.

IMO, your strategy is a much better strategy than resigning any of Ayton, Simons or Sharpe.

My 1/2 cent.

Yes and no, I think gambling on RFA is always a risky strategy, b\c at the end of the day, that team, tax\apron strapped or not, can always match and make moves elsewhere, not letting that asset get away for nothing. Now maybe POR might be able to work a S&T with a team for their RFA player, but just signing that player away from their team b\c they have the cap space to do so can happen but I can't recall it happening too often

What I was pointing out is that DEN is going to have to do something, I doubt they go into the 2nd apron, although they could for a year or so, more likely their MO has been to let players like Braun go and then backfill with players on their bench (Watson\Strawther), so if POR was proactive they could reach out to DEN, dangle the #11 (or maybe a future 1st instead?), agree to take on Nnaji's deal which would help DEN and maybe flip a Thybulle or Williams back to them, which help them next year but won't add to their long term salary issues.

But recognizing some teams that have impending cap issues and proactively trading for a guy like Braun or Watson or Mathurin (or another of IND players though many of them are on really nice team friendly deals) COULD be a strategy worth considering, provided the players POR is chasing match their players' timeline.

But to your point, RFA in 26/27 worth monitoring:

ATL\Dyson Daniels
CHA\Mark Williams
DET\Jaden Ivey
DET\Jalen Duran
DEN\Christian Braun
DEN\Peyton Watson
* Both Watson AND Braun up, if they don't unload MPJ or Gordan (I doubt anyone takes Murray @ his salary) something has to give here

HOU\Jabari Smith Jr
HOU\Tari Eason
IND\Benedict Mathurin
* Another team with potential issues, especially if they resign Turner, the team has stated they will not go into the tax, now maybe with back to back EC appearances they may reconsider

MIA\Nikola Jovic
* Jovic had a good year and fits that shooting\PF that POR could use to pair with Avdija\Camara

OKC\Chet Holmgren
OKC\Ousmane Dieng
OKC\Jalen Williams
OKC\Ajay Mitchell
* The butcher's bill comes due, I have thought for a while that OKC will keep their draft picks so they can keep restocking the cupboard when they lose players to FA

ORL\Paolo Banchero
* Note Simons contract would expire at same time, Banchero's impending contract extension might be a reason why they look to move now on their shooting need

SA\Jeremy Sochan
SAC\Keegan Murray
TOR\Ochai Agbaji
UTA\Walker Kessler

26/27 UFA of note
BOS\Porzingis
CHI\Coby White
DAL\Washington
DAL\Gafford
DET\Harris
HOU\Van Fleet
LAC\Harden, Powell
LAL\ Lebron, Hachimura, Finney-Smith,
MEM\Jaren Jackson Jr
MIL\Portis
MIN\Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Mike Conley
NO\McCollum
NY\Mikal Bridges, Mitchell Robinson
ORL\Mo Wagner
PHI\Oubre
PHX (for now)\Durant
SA\DeAaron Fox, Harrison Barnes
UTA\ John Collins, Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson
WAS\Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart

Agree with most of this... just remember that chasing RFAs against a club that is having cap space issues is far less risky than before. One of the beauties of the new CBA if you aren't cap challenged. And you only need to hit on one or maybe two and you are in a really good spot.

[Walton1one]

Some worthwhile news regarding a few other teams with player POR coudl have interest in:

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Good, I don't want Lamelo ball anywhere near this team, or Miles Bridges either for that matter. IMO, this likely means no substantial moves for CHA other than trying to trade Mark Williams again (He is an RFA after next year)

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So either #3 for a proven player or they keep the pick. Not unexpected.

[Butter]

Sweetening the pot a little for an old classic trade idea

Portland Trades
Ant Simons
#11

Orlando Trades
#16
#25
Players TBD

I know the unknown players is a big gap, but the new concept is the pick swap to facilitate the Ant trade. Maybe the Blazers could gain some additional Capitol, depending on the players they take back?

[Chanse503]

Sweetening the pot a little for an old classic trade idea

Portland Trades
Ant Simons
#11

Orlando Trades
#16
#25
Players TBD

I know the unknown players is a big gap, but the new concept is the pick swap to facilitate the Ant trade. Maybe the Blazers could gain some additional Capitol, depending on the players they take back?

Jonathan Issac and Gary Harris and it’s a done deal
Potentially come out of the draft w/ Coward and Raynaud

[Walton1one]

Sweetening the pot a little for an old classic trade idea

Portland Trades
Ant Simons
#11

Orlando Trades
#16
#25
Players TBD

I know the unknown players is a big gap, but the new concept is the pick swap to facilitate the Ant trade. Maybe the Blazers could gain some additional Capitol, depending on the players they take back?

That is an interesting idea, although IMO it would take POR out of the range of players like Jakucionis & Bryant, and possibly Demin & Essengue, (maybe Coward?), not sure it is worth it.

IMO it should be a pretty clear proposal, either Simons for #16, KCP & filler (if necessary) or Simons for #25, KCP and future 1st (lotto protected, preferably 2026)

Either Simons is worth #16 (ONE decent draft pick) or two mid draft picks and KCP is required in the deal. No way POR trades Simons w\o some shooting coming back in the exchange, KCP, even with the down year, Cronin can sell to Kolde is shooting coming back (plus defense!) and he is very tradeable if not at the trade deadline, then next year.

[tester551]

Sweetening the pot a little for an old classic trade idea

Portland Trades
Ant Simons
#11

Orlando Trades
#16
#25
Players TBD

I know the unknown players is a big gap, but the new concept is the pick swap to facilitate the Ant trade. Maybe the Blazers could gain some additional Capitol, depending on the players they take back?

Jonathan Issac and Gary Harris and it’s a done deal
Potentially come out of the draft w/ Coward and Raynaud

No...

Did you see he included #11 going out?

[DaVoiceMaster]

Yeah, I'm not inclined to trade the #11 pick. Simon's for KCP, Isaac, and the #16 & #25 picks should be close. Portland then sends Isaac to the Lakers for Kleiber and Knecht.

Orlando clears future salary to re-sign Paolo.
Portland adds a young player and picks.
Los Angeles adds a much needed defensive center.

[Wizenheimer]

Yeah, I'm not inclined to trade the #11 pick. Simon's for KCP, Isaac, and the #16 & #25 picks should be close.

Portland sends out 25M and takes back 47M. Not anywhere close to a legal trade; even with the Laker deal in the mix. Issac has a 25M salary; KCP 22M

and, Simons is not worth 2 first round picks

[DeBlazerRiddem]

The Orlando deal I have been noodling around is essentially Simons/Thybulle for KCP/Anthony and a pick. Pretty close on salary, Orlando upgrades their PG spot with some more shooting and Thybulle might be what they were expecting KCP to be. I don't think I would take on KCP's contract for just 25, but will they give 16 to upgrade two positions?

I would rather send them some other filler besides Thybulle but I can see him being a guy Orlando likes and makes them more likely to part with the higher pick.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Yeah, I'm not inclined to trade the #11 pick. Simon's for KCP, Isaac, and the #16 & #25 picks should be close.

Portland sends out 25M and takes back 47M. Not anywhere close to a legal trade; even with the Laker deal in the mix. Issac has a 25M salary; KCP 22M

and, Simons is not worth 2 first round picks

Oops, nice catch. I meant to add RW3 to the deal. Isaac's deal goes to $15M, not $25M. The 2 picks are for Orlando saving money on KCP and Isaac's contracta.

[tester551]

Yeah, I'm not inclined to trade the #11 pick. Simon's for KCP, Isaac, and the #16 & #25 picks should be close.

Portland sends out 25M and takes back 47M. Not anywhere close to a legal trade; even with the Laker deal in the mix. Issac has a 25M salary; KCP 22M

and, Simons is not worth 2 first round picks

Issac only has $15M (since we're dealing with next season's numbers).

Its $27M to Orlando and $37M to Portland. ~$3M more salary would need to be sent to the Magic for it to be legal

[tester551]

The Orlando deal I have been noodling around is essentially Simons/Thybulle for KCP/Anthony and a pick. Pretty close on salary, Orlando upgrades their PG spot with some more shooting and Thybulle might be what they were expecting KCP to be. I don't think I would take on KCP's contract for just 25, but will they give 16 to upgrade two positions?

I would rather send them some other filler besides Thybulle but I can see him being a guy Orlando likes and makes them more likely to part with the higher pick.

Portland can send JUST Simons and have it be legal.

Simons <=> KCP + Anthony + 16

I think that would save the Magic enough where they could potentially stay below the tax line.

If they wanted to include Howard, Id consider that as well. I think there's a chance you could flip Jett to the Nets for pick #28... (or at least #39)