2025 Draft prospects - thread 2

[2weekswithpay]

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[TheJordanRule]

What would a mid lotto pick cost? In a draft this deep, the mid lotto might as well be the early lotto to the point where a couple of these guys seem more likely to hit than bust. Gimme Nolan Tratore and Egor Demin. Make it the Do It All Guards draft! Trust me, the court vision, unselfishness and team chemistry would be off the chain! I want Tratore if at all possible because he's incredibly athletic and doesn't have the typical big guard limitations. But I'm willing to settle for Egor or KJ if we "have" to. In a dream NBA2k type scenario, we trade for a mid lotto pick, and also use our own pick to trade up into the mid lotto. Come back with Jeremiah Fears and Nolan Tratore. Use those two pieces as two essential members of our core for the next decade!

[Jcool0]

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[2weekswithpay]

Some concerns about Cedric Coward.

1. Drop in BPM in his 2nd second season at Eastern Wash.

BBref

2023: 4.2 OBPM 1.9 DBPM
2024: 3.4 OBPM -0.6 DBPM
2025: 7 OBPM 2.2 DBPM

Only 6 games played in 2025, unfortunately, but you hope for a better Jr season.

Drafted NBA players with a BPM < 3.5 in Jr season while playing in a Mid-major conference.

Spoiler:

2. On/offs say that his teams were better defensively with Coward on the bench.

2023: 107.2 defensive rating on. 106.2 defensive rating off.

2024: 109.6 defensive rating on. 107.2 defensive rating off.

2025: 107.4 defensive rating on. 112 defensive rating off. Small sample size, but 2025 is the only year his team is significantly better with Coward on the court.

3. Adjusted RAPM numbers aren't good either, except for 2025.

2023: 1.8 RAPM. -0.6 against top 100 opponents.

2024 1.7 RAPM. -2.7 against top 100 opponents.

2025: 6.5 RAPM. 3.2 RAPM against top 100.


There is still a lot to like about Coward, but he's not a sure thing, and if you plan on drafting him high, you're putting a lot of faith into the 6 games he's played this season.

[Hold That]

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Beautiful drafting and roster construction something the Bulls FO are clueless on.

[Muzbar]

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The only play on that list that interests me is Essengue.

Queen would be a major disappointment, not as big of a disappointment as Collin Murray-Boyles.

Asa Newell I could live with, but that would be such a 'meh' pick.

I think I've settled on Carter Bryant, he'd be electric running the floor with Giddey and Matas.

[Dresden]

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That's a great chart. Shows you don't have to be drafting in the top 3 to build a winner. Of course, getting a superstar like SGA or Halliburton outside of the top 10 is pretty much just luck, and you can't count on that.

But it also shows what a large part trades play in roster construction. Free agency was a pretty minor factor.

[Dresden]

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The only play on that list that interests me is Essengue.

Queen would be a major disappointment, not as big of a disappointment as Collin Murray-Boyles.

Asa Newell I could live with, but that would be such a 'meh' pick.

I think I've settled on Carter Bryant, he'd be electric running the floor with Giddey and Matas.

I don't know much about these players, but from what little I've read, they all seem like they have a chance to have a positive impact on our roster. Murray-Boyles may not have a tremendous upside, but we can always use more defense, physicality, and an inside scoring option. Essengue is worrisome because he can't shoot- you have to hope he can improve that, but that doesn't always happen. Queen could surprise some people, but his defense is suspect and he's small for the 5. Newell reminds me a bit of Noah.

[2weekswithpay]

Interesting players being mocked in the 2nd or as UDFAs.

John Tonje

19.6/5.3/1.8 on 46.5/38.8/90.9 shooting splits.

6'4.75 with a 6'9 WS.

5th year senior and All-American. Will be 24 years old on draft night. Good size with a wide frame. Probably too slow to guard PGs, but should hopefully be fine with 2s and 3s. His strength may allow him to guard some 4s. Solid defender, although he doesn't get steals or blocks. High volume 3pt shooter with 11 3PAs per 100 possessions. Good shooting splits in past seasons and career, 86% from the FT line. His strength gets him a lot of FTs as well. He gets to the line more than any other high-volume 3pt shooter in a high-major conference. 8th in free-throw rate for all high-major players 6'6 and under.

Spoiler:

On/offs: 14.9 net rating on.

9.6 RAPM (#14) & 10.2 RAPM (#7) against top 100.

BPM of 10 in 2025, but in all previous seasons, he had a BPM of < 2 on Bart Torvik.

He's older, which is a major knock against him, but if he has enough athleticism to defend and can make 3s there's a role for him in the NBA.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Kam Jones

19.2/4.5/5.9 on 48.3/31.1/64.8 shooting splits.

6'3.25 with a 6'6 WS.

4th senior and All-American. Was on draft radars before and during the season, has fallen into the second round on recent mocks. His age is probably the biggest reason, he'll be 23 on draft night. Stepped into the lead guard role with Kolek leaving. Has a case for being the best guard other than Harper at getting to the rim. 245 shots at the rim is a ridiculous number. In Bart Torvik's database, only 3 drafted players have 240+ attempts at the rim while being 6'6 or under: Ja, Elfrid Payton, and Darius Morris. Ja is the only good player higher, but still a special statistical mark. Jones doesn't have many dunks as his athleticism is great, or get to the line, which is disappointing. Only shot 31% from 3, but is a career 36% 3pt shooter. Weird case of not being a good FT shooter, but still making 3s. Maybe role change led to a decrease in 3pt%. 3.2 assist to TO ratio. AST% increased significantly from 16.7% to 38.1%, and Jones managed to keep the TOs down, which is massive. Solid defender but nothing spectacular.

Spoiler:

On/offs: 13.8 net rating on. Marquette was 10 points on offense and 11 points better on defense with Jones on the court.

10.4 RAPM (#6) & 10.6 RAPM (#5) against top 100. 9.3 BPM with good BPM numbers in previous seasons.

Spoiler:

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Miles Byrd

12.3/4.4/2.7 on 38.1/30.1/83.2 shooting splits.

6'4.75 with a 6'10 WS.

I've mentioned Byrd before, and he's quite popular with those who love analytics. Hard to miss him because of the insane amount of steals and blocks he gets. He posted a BLK% of 4.9 and a STL% of 4.3. In Bart Torvik's database, the only drafted players to post a BLK% & STL% of 4 or higher are Tari Eason, Thybulle, and Chris Singleton. Robert Covington also qualifies, but he went undrafted. Eason has had a solid career so far, Thybulle has outplayed his draft position (#20) IMO, and Covington was one of the best 3&D players of the 2010s.

I'm not as high on his defense as others because I think the screen navigation needs work. Byrd is too light to effectively get through NBA screens IMO. Only 182lbs at the combine, but he's only 20, and working with an NBA strength and conditioning coach should benefit him more than others. The Bulls were 29th in opponent TO%, we need players who can force TOs.

On offense, the lack of athleticism is glaring. He can't get by defenders. He doesn't have the explosiveness or strength to do so, and he can't finish either. Over half of his shots are 3s, and while the 30.1% from 3 is concerning, he shot 83% from the line. His form isn't broken, and his offense will largely benefit from his strength improving as well. Getting stronger should help him get more consistent mechanics. His passing is a plus, as well IMO.

On/offs: 6.3 net rating.

5.2 RAPM & 5.4 RAPM against top 100. 8.7 BPM.

Spoiler:

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Ryan Kalkbrenner.

19.2/8.7/1.5 on 65.3/34.4/68.1 shooting splits

7'1 with a 7'6 WS.

Draft stock isn't high due to age, the lack of shooting/passing, and a lack of athleticism, but one of the safer bets to be a contributor on an NBA team. With Clingan gone, Kalkbrenner was probably the best rim protector in college basketball. Opponents shot 51.9% at the rim with Kalkbrenner on the court, and he posted a BLK% of 7.3. Kalkbrenner had over 100 dunks and shot just under 80% at the rim. Not a sexy pick, but there's a good chance he has a top 15-20 return value.

On/offs: 9.1 net rating.

9.0 RAPM (#23) & 7.3 RAPM (#68) against top 100. 11.1 BPM, insanely productive college career. Multiple seasons with BPM > 10.

Spoiler:

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A few more names.

Milos Uzan
Alex Condon
Tyrese Proctor
Sion James
Adou Thiero

[Jcool0]

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The only play on that list that interests me is Essengue.

Queen would be a major disappointment, not as big of a disappointment as Collin Murray-Boyles.

Asa Newell I could live with, but that would be such a 'meh' pick.

I think I've settled on Carter Bryant, he'd be electric running the floor with Giddey and Matas.

Carter Bryant would be the worst pick imaginable. Nothing he did during the season had him in the first 20 picks. You dont take a 3-D project in the lottery.

[Chi town]

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The only play on that list that interests me is Essengue.

Queen would be a major disappointment, not as big of a disappointment as Collin Murray-Boyles.

Asa Newell I could live with, but that would be such a 'meh' pick.

I think I've settled on Carter Bryant, he'd be electric running the floor with Giddey and Matas.

Carter Bryant would be the worst pick imaginable. Nothing he did during the season had him in the first 20 picks. You dont take a 3-D project in the lottery.

AK did at 4.

Hence Pwon’t

[Muzbar]

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The only play on that list that interests me is Essengue.

Queen would be a major disappointment, not as big of a disappointment as Collin Murray-Boyles.

Asa Newell I could live with, but that would be such a 'meh' pick.

I think I've settled on Carter Bryant, he'd be electric running the floor with Giddey and Matas.

Carter Bryant would be the worst pick imaginable. Nothing he did during the season had him in the first 20 picks. You dont take a 3-D project in the lottery.

But you do take unathletic defensive liability bigs? That somehow is better than an athletic 3 and D wing with a wingspan that's an inch shorter than said mentioned big man who cannot shoot 3's?

Seems logical.

[Rose2Boozer]

Post 2025 NBA Combine Lottery Mock

Mavs: Cooper Flagg
Spurs: Dylan Harper
Sixers: Ace Bailey
Hornets: VJ Edgecombe
Jazz: Tre Johnson
Wizards: Derik Queen
Pelicans: Kon Knueppel
Nets: Jeremiah Fears
Raptors: Khaman Maluach
Rockets: Kasparas Jakucionis
Blazers: Cedric Coward
Bulls: Thomas Sorber
Hawks: Rasheer Fleming
Spurs: Collin Murray-Boyles

[Andi Obst]

Post 2025 NBA Combine Lottery Mock

Mavs: Cooper Flagg
Spurs: Dylan Harper
Sixers: Ace Bailey
Hornets: VJ Edgecombe
Jazz: Tre Johnson
Wizards: Derik Queen
Pelicans: Kon Knueppel
Nets: Jeremiah Fears
Raptors: Khaman Maluach
Rockets: Kasparas Jakucionis
Blazers: Cedric Coward
Bulls: Thomas Sorber
Hawks: Rasheer Fleming
Spurs: Collin Murray-Boyles

That's an A+ draft for the Spurs. And it's realistic, too. As much as I love CMB, I definitely see the fit issues in the modern NBA. Next to Wemby, though? That's unfair.

[kulaz3000]

Post 2025 NBA Combine Lottery Mock

Mavs: Cooper Flagg
Spurs: Dylan Harper
Sixers: Ace Bailey
Hornets: VJ Edgecombe
Jazz: Tre Johnson
Wizards: Derik Queen
Pelicans: Kon Knueppel
Nets: Jeremiah Fears
Raptors: Khaman Maluach
Rockets: Kasparas Jakucionis
Blazers: Cedric Coward
Bulls: Thomas Sorber
Hawks: Rasheer Fleming
Spurs: Collin Murray-Boyles

I think Sorber would be a great fit, though he kind of reminds me of Wendall Carter, slightly short for center, but a massive wing span, and not overly athletic. I think he has better IQ than Carter though, and has better feel.

I would be very happy with Sorber, HOWEVER, in our range, if available, I take a swing on Cedric Coward. Yes, small sample size, but great NBA body, athletic, and a solid shooter. I think he will go top 10 but if he falls for whatever reason, at our range, I think he is the only player with star potential.

[Rose2Boozer]

Post 2025 NBA Combine Lottery Mock

Mavs: Cooper Flagg
Spurs: Dylan Harper
Sixers: Ace Bailey
Hornets: VJ Edgecombe
Jazz: Tre Johnson
Wizards: Derik Queen
Pelicans: Kon Knueppel
Nets: Jeremiah Fears
Raptors: Khaman Maluach
Rockets: Kasparas Jakucionis
Blazers: Cedric Coward
Bulls: Thomas Sorber
Hawks: Rasheer Fleming
Spurs: Collin Murray-Boyles

I think Sorber would be a great fit, though he kind of reminds me of Wendall Carter, slightly short for center, but a massive wing span, and not overly athletic. I think he has better IQ than Carter though, and has better feel.

I would be very happy with Sorber, HOWEVER, in our range, if available, I take a swing on Cedric Coward. Yes, small sample size, but great NBA body, athletic, and a solid shooter. I think he will go top 10 but if he falls for whatever reason, at our range, I think he is the only player with star potential.

I would love for Cedric Coward to be available at 12. Looking at the Blazers roster, I just don't know how they pass him up.

[Jvaughn]

Post 2025 NBA Combine Lottery Mock

Mavs: Cooper Flagg
Spurs: Dylan Harper
Sixers: Ace Bailey
Hornets: VJ Edgecombe
Jazz: Tre Johnson
Wizards: Derik Queen
Pelicans: Kon Knueppel
Nets: Jeremiah Fears
Raptors: Khaman Maluach
Rockets: Kasparas Jakucionis
Blazers: Cedric Coward
Bulls: Thomas Sorber
Hawks: Rasheer Fleming
Spurs: Collin Murray-Boyles

I think Sorber would be a great fit, though he kind of reminds me of Wendall Carter, slightly short for center, but a massive wing span, and not overly athletic. I think he has better IQ than Carter though, and has better feel.

I would be very happy with Sorber, HOWEVER, in our range, if available, I take a swing on Cedric Coward. Yes, small sample size, but great NBA body, athletic, and a solid shooter. I think he will go top 10 but if he falls for whatever reason, at our range, I think he is the only player with star potential.

Yeah definitely WCJ vibes from Sober. Not elite at anything. Solid at a lot of things. I'd prefer to take a bigger swing. If Coward or Riley are on the board, I'd much rather go that direction over Sorber.

[Jcool0]

The only play on that list that interests me is Essengue.

Queen would be a major disappointment, not as big of a disappointment as Collin Murray-Boyles.

Asa Newell I could live with, but that would be such a 'meh' pick.

I think I've settled on Carter Bryant, he'd be electric running the floor with Giddey and Matas.

Carter Bryant would be the worst pick imaginable. Nothing he did during the season had him in the first 20 picks. You dont take a 3-D project in the lottery.

But you do take unathletic defensive liability bigs? That somehow is better than an athletic 3 and D wing with a wingspan that's an inch shorter than said mentioned big man who cannot shoot 3's?

Seems logical.

I am not the biggest fan of Queen but he was a big time player for Maryland. More to go on then hope and prayer with Bryant.

[Jcool0]

The only play on that list that interests me is Essengue.

Queen would be a major disappointment, not as big of a disappointment as Collin Murray-Boyles.

Asa Newell I could live with, but that would be such a 'meh' pick.

I think I've settled on Carter Bryant, he'd be electric running the floor with Giddey and Matas.

Carter Bryant would be the worst pick imaginable. Nothing he did during the season had him in the first 20 picks. You dont take a 3-D project in the lottery.

AK did at 4.

Hence Pwon’t

I would hope he has learned his lesson. But with AK you never know...

[sco]

Carter Bryant would be the worst pick imaginable. Nothing he did during the season had him in the first 20 picks. You dont take a 3-D project in the lottery.

AK did at 4.

Hence Pwon’t

I would hope he has learned his lesson. But with AK you never know...

I understand the PTSD, but IMO Bryant has the highest ceiling of anyone expected to be left. I'm not drafting in the lotto for a high floor. Queen gives me McDermott flashbacks.