2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[76ciology]

However, it must also be noted that he's not *just* as a shooter. He shot extremely high percentages on high difficulty shots and a a massive volume for a team with no help. Paired with plenty of playmaking flashes, while playing in a strong conference as a 6'6'' 18 year old kid with a 6'10 wingspan.
If we turn the question around and focus on the things that he can do, I think the list of players that meet the above threshold is also really, really slim?

I do think that the Nik Stauskas comparison is a really interesting one. Both 6'6'' wings with versatile shooting skills and playmaking chops. I think that Tre is a little bit more dynamic in his shooting, both in his shot profile but also the ease of making (long) shots off screens. Ultimately Stauskas' shooting never translated to the NBA which nullified his potential.

Tre needs to get stronger to hold his own as a SG/SF in the league, but he just turned 19. I don't think that is a long shot. The lateral quickness and inability to get around screens is my biggest concern. I am a bit worried about his quick twitch ability, but a big factor is also his horrendous technique/footwork. That could be improved with training of course.

The problem with many elite shooters is that they struggle to get their shots off against longer, more athletic NBA defenders. JJ Redick has mentioned this on his podcast. If you watch closely, JJ often curls in a specific direction, usually to his left, as seen in his game-winner against Indiana. This also helps explain why someone like Jimmer Fredette, despite his college dominance, was a complete bust in the NBA.

The difference with Tre is he’s 6’6” with long arms, a high release point, and the ability to elevate over defenders (comparable to Ray Allen). On top of that, he’s consistently knocking down step backs and side steps (for extra separation) at volume, as if they were catch and shoot threes.

That’s how he was able to drop 40 points on Cason Wallace and 25 on Cooper Flagg back in high school.

Tre isn’t just a tough shot taker, he’s a tough shot maker.

[Black Mage]

It's going to be hilarious when CMB becomes more productive than all the guys we're talking about.

Thybulle should take his warm up shots next to CMB; people would think he's learned to shoot it like Steph.

[Redemption76]

Who can’t do anything but shoot. Including driving to the rim.

[the_process]

https://www.rightstorickysanchez.com/p/sixers-ace-bailey-draft-case

Pretty good summary of Bailey´s case.

Daryl,

Let someone else fall in love with Ace Bailey.

[Stanford]

If we did the 3-7 swap, would we be hoping one of Tre or Kon falls, or taking Queen? Someone else?

[sodmoraes]

If we did the 3-7 swap, would we be hoping one of Tre or Kon falls, or taking Queen? Someone else?

Im against it, but if we do it i would hope we get Tre or Queen. Tre will probably be gone at pick 5, but i think Queen would still be there for us at 7. Just dont wanna get Knipples, screams roleplayer to me.

[Snotbubbles]

I always give grace if you’re a barely missing that mark. Ace (.243 FTr) ain’t even close. He’s allergic to contact and getting to the line. The outlier guys aren’t the ones we should be betting on. Even someone like Haliburton had magnificent defensive traits, reshooting percentages across the court, passing. I’m racking my brain at what Ace does at an elite level other than tough shot making (with bad percentages). His NBA career with be what either analytic heads point to or eye test heads point to for years.

Bailey seems to go to the fade away shot, going away from the basket off one foot a lot.

Watched him and Harper having a training session with Giannis.

Also watched some in game clips of Bailey and it's a habit he has when defended in the midrange, to avoid contact or being blocked.

Even Giannis was frustrated repeatedly trying to get him to plant two feet and rise up into the shot. Kept explaining he'd have better balance off two feet instead of falling away shooting on or off one foot. Harper seemed to take note and just do as Giannis was asking.

Not sure if there's an issue with Bailey being coached, or the habit is just so ingrained it'll take repetition to break it.

Just an observation.

It takes 10,000 repetitions to create a muscle memory pattern. He's not going to get that down in one session.

[Negrodamus]

If we did the 3-7 swap, would we be hoping one of Tre or Kon falls, or taking Queen? Someone else?

Kasparas or Queen for me. Both have superstar features to their games despite the warts (namely athleticism).

[sodmoraes]

If we did the 3-7 swap, would we be hoping one of Tre or Kon falls, or taking Queen? Someone else?

Im against it, but if we do it i would hope we get Tre or Queen. Tre will probably be gone at pick 5, but i think Queen would still be there for us at 7. Just dont wanna get Knipples, screams roleplayer to me.

I dont like this trade because, at the time of the draft, it will be too soon to know if Embiid will recover from his knee surgery. So we are dealing a high pick, for a player that can make us compete right now( Herb), without knowing if we will be a team that will try to win a title or will pivot to a rebuild, so we are dealing with a lot of information asymmetry. We are giving up a chance to get a player with bigger potential( maybe Ace) without knowing how the dominoes are going to fall (because of Embiid´s health).

[76ciology]

Bailey seems to go to the fade away shot, going away from the basket off one foot a lot.

Watched him and Harper having a training session with Giannis.

Also watched some in game clips of Bailey and it's a habit he has when defended in the midrange, to avoid contact or being blocked.

Even Giannis was frustrated repeatedly trying to get him to plant two feet and rise up into the shot. Kept explaining he'd have better balance off two feet instead of falling away shooting on or off one foot. Harper seemed to take note and just do as Giannis was asking.

Not sure if there's an issue with Bailey being coached, or the habit is just so ingrained it'll take repetition to break it.

Just an observation.

He either has a work ethic issue or a basketball IQ issue, that’s just my perspective. And honestly, you’d better hope it’s just a work ethic problem.

The old excuse of being “raw” at 18 doesn’t hold the same weight anymore. Today’s prospects have access to everything, YouTube film and elite personal trainers. Even Khaman Maluach, who grew up in South Sudan where internet access is limited, already has a polished skill set for his age+size and solid shooting mechanics.

There are thousands of skills trainers out there, especially for highly touted prospects like Ace Bailey. I was even surprised to find out that Tre has been working for years with Tyler Relph, a trainer I’ve followed for a while because of constant pop up videos on my facebook.

[76ciology]

It's going to be hilarious when CMB becomes more productive than all the guys we're talking about.

It’s very hard to be a PF who can’t shoot in today’s NBA. There are only 3 exceptions, you are a dominant rim scorer (volume+around 70-80% FG% at the rim), you have Steph Curry as your teammate or you are an ambassador for Crumbl Cookies.

[Negrodamus]

I’ll tell you what though, if we take Maluach, that means Embiid is so completely deep fried and we’re bag holding that contract for a while.

[SixthStreet]

If we do the Herb Jones tradedown, assuming Johnson and Kneuppel are not there, I would take Maluach. I really only worry about his overly high center of gravity. I think he does have star type impact when combining defense in space, switchability, rim protection, lob finisher, and (potential) volume floor spacer.

[SixthStreet]

I’ll tell you what though, if we take Maluach, that means Embiid is so completely deep fried and we’re bag holding that contract for a while.

I wouldn't mind that. With Embiid, much like Hinkie's Sixers, I just want to avoid the treadmill Embiid good enough to drag us to a play-in execution for the next few seasons. Either he can be a star again, or he's toast and we can tank with that contract a boat anchor for the tank.

[Arsenal]

Taking a glorified Clint Capela with a high 1st would be a disaster. So would taking a big that can't defend, has turrible athleticism, and is closer to a junior than a freshman.

If we trade down to #7 or #8 the pick should be Noa or Kasparas.

[HotelVitale]

Bailey seems to go to the fade away shot, going away from the basket off one foot a lot.

Watched him and Harper having a training session with Giannis.

Also watched some in game clips of Bailey and it's a habit he has when defended in the midrange, to avoid contact or being blocked.

Even Giannis was frustrated repeatedly trying to get him to plant two feet and rise up into the shot. Kept explaining he'd have better balance off two feet instead of falling away shooting on or off one foot. Harper seemed to take note and just do as Giannis was asking.

Not sure if there's an issue with Bailey being coached, or the habit is just so ingrained it'll take repetition to break it.

Just an observation.

He either has a work ethic issue or a basketball IQ issue, that’s just my perspective. And honestly, you’d better hope it’s just a work ethic problem.

The old excuse of being “raw” at 18 doesn’t hold the same weight anymore. Today’s prospects have access to everything, YouTube film and elite personal trainers. Even Khaman Maluach, who grew up in South Sudan where internet access is limited, already has a polished skill set for his age+size and solid shooting mechanics.

There are thousands of skills trainers out there, especially for highly touted prospects like Ace Bailey. I was even surprised to find out that Tre has been working for years with Tyler Relph, a trainer I’ve followed for a while because of constant pop up videos on my facebook.

Yeah 'development' is almost always talked about poorly. I don't know how much people here played AAU or other traveling leagues in their teens, but most good players who are going to be college players are already very good at their strengths by the time they're like 12. The sick drivers are sick drivers, the slick shooters are slick shooters, the guys with great court vision are showing it every 3rd play, etc. (And they're also not very good at most things they won't be good at too.) There are definitely tips and tricks people learn in their teens but your strengths and general game are already very much there what define you, and from everything I've seen players quite rarely pick up a brand new thing--say post-up footwork or slashing--from the time they're like age 15 to age 20. (I also taught athletes for years at a Big Ten school and followed their progression, won't go into that here but similar story played out).

What NBA 'development' is about is about the NBA much more so than the player--can you learn how to do your strengths at the NBA level, and can you learn how to fit the rest of your game into the specific requirements of NBA sets, speed, etc to take advantage of the places and gaps that the average NBA game will give you. To a large extent that's not going to be about coaching or learning--it's just a kind of intuitive thing that some players can do and some can't. That's the biggest reason the draft is so unpredictable, just a simple weird fact that no one knows who's going to translate their natural game to the NBA game.

If a player has some strengths translate, then the 'development' part is mostly about teaching people to work them into that specific NBA setting, and to practice the piss out of some basics. If you can shoot in NBA games alright, you need to of course keep practicing the hell out of NBA shots but more importantly you need to make the right reads off help defense and learn how to speed up your closeouts and pull-ups to go against NBA althetes, and then maybe you can drill your footwork on attacking the rim on closeouts etc. But you're not going to learn to be a slasher or point guard or whatever, 'development' is just you growing out from your strengths and hopefully picking up some new ways to be effective that fit into what the defense is likely to give you.

[HotelVitale]

Not sure if there's an issue with Bailey being coached, or the habit is just so ingrained it'll take repetition to break it..

He either has a work ethic issue or a basketball IQ issue, that’s just my perspective. And honestly, you’d better hope it’s just a work ethic problem.

Also I started lecturing big instead of making the small point about what you all were saying. I meant that his way of finishing doesn't read like an IQ or work ethic issue to me, it reads more like a weakness in his game that he forced at Rutgers that he shouldn't have, and that won't really define much for him as a NBA prospect. He's not good at creating from a stand-still or driving off the dribble--just not a key part of his game--and I strongly agree that it looks bad when he forces that and kind of makes up weird moves as he goes. I don't think it's for lack of trying or access to people doing that, I just think it's not naturally his thing and his coach and role at Rutgers as a (sometimes) creator on a team with a crap offense made him try out.

That seems like bad news but it honestly feels fine to me. He shouldn't take back-to-basket fadeaways like ever in his first couple years, so I don't really care that he forced them some times in college, and he won't be scoring tons on off-dribble finishes in the NBA early on so I don't care that much that he looks weird when tries that. To my eyes, the big defining questions for him are: 1) will he be a really good NBA off-catch shooter or just decent 2) will he be able to consistently take a dribble or two off catch and make a good pass/pull-up/attack decision 3) can he get to his spots on offense enough when he's creating for himself (as a like 3rd option type guy) and 4) is his defense and hustle going to look solid despite his frame. Basically just 'will he quite good at the things he's good at once he gets to a NBA setting and isn't forcing dumb stuff.'

If the answer to those 4 is yes within 2 years, he should be a good NBA player. (Though none are easy yeses). And then from there things like how well he learns to finish off closeouts or get up iso fadeaways will determine if he's a solid starter or better, how much he can find little ways to take advantage of what defenses will give him. That's all deep development stuff and it's also super unpredictable, but again I think it's less important to his boom/bust than the simple translation of his strengths will be.

[zaz102]

Not sure if there's an issue with Bailey being coached, or the habit is just so ingrained it'll take repetition to break it..

He either has a work ethic issue or a basketball IQ issue, that’s just my perspective. And honestly, you’d better hope it’s just a work ethic problem.

Also I started lecturing big instead of making the small point about what you all were saying. I meant that his way of finishing doesn't read like an IQ or work ethic issue to me, it reads more like a weakness in his game that he forced at Rutgers that he shouldn't have, and that won't really define much for him as a NBA prospect. He's not good at creating from a stand-still or driving off the dribble--just not a key part of his game--and I strongly agree that it looks bad when he forces that and kind of makes up weird moves as he goes. I don't think it's for lack of trying or access to people doing that, I just think it's not naturally his thing and his coach and role at Rutgers as a (sometimes) creator on a team with a crap offense made him try out.

That seems like bad news but it honestly feels fine to me. He shouldn't take back-to-basket fadeaways like ever in his first couple years, so I don't really care that he forced them some times in college, and he won't be scoring tons on off-dribble finishes in the NBA early on so I don't care that much that he looks weird when tries that. To my eyes, the big defining questions for him are: 1) will he be a really good NBA off-catch shooter or just decent 2) will he be able to consistently take a dribble or two off catch and make a good pass/pull-up/attack decision 3) can he get to his spots on offense enough when he's creating for himself (as a like 3rd option type guy) and 4) is his defense and hustle going to look solid despite his frame. Basically just 'will he quite good at the things he's good at once he gets to a NBA setting and isn't forcing dumb stuff.'

If the answer to those 4 is yes within 2 years, he should be a good NBA player. (Though none are easy yeses). And then from there things like how well he learns to finish off closeouts or get up iso fadeaways will determine if he's a solid starter or better, how much he can find little ways to take advantage of what defenses will give him. That's all deep development stuff and it's also super unpredictable, but again I think it's less important to his boom/bust than the simple translation of his strengths will be.

This was very insightful. Does anybody stick out to you for #3? If so, why?

[Negrodamus]

Taking a glorified Clint Capela with a high 1st would be a disaster. So would taking a big that can't defend, has turrible athleticism, and is closer to a junior than a freshman.

If we trade down to #7 or #8 the pick should be Noa or Kasparas.

We have Capela at home (Bona)

[sodmoraes]

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I thought Nipples was too injured last week to go to the Combine...