No Ceilings Scout on Alex Condon, most likely he goes back to school
Condon is the type of player that could fit well with DC as a backup center, a little more mobile, better shooter, good connective player like Clingan can be, plays hard, runs the court, defends well. I would rather see POR try and draft him than PF types trying to work as a small ball center.
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/alex-condon-is-the-fixer?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=536361&post_id=163500055&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1f5gb9&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=emailA player who can fill roles and holes on a team’s offense or defense is an extremely valuable asset. While rarely a star, a fixer on the basketball court simply makes their team better and opens up new heights to reach. In this year’s draft, one player that’s stood out as a potential fixer at the next level, given what he did to help spring his team to a title win: Perth native and Florida Gator Alex Condon.
Alex Condon...He and Haugh were the only players on Florida’s roster to rank in the team’s top five in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks per game, with the important distinction that Condon did so while starting 35 games. While playing as many minutes per game as Haugh, Condon arguably had the more important role given his status on both ends of the floor for the Gators...Condon was never relied upon to carry the load on offense for the Gators...was key to Florida, ranking second in BartTorvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
His speed is one of his rare traits as a center, and he even beat wings and springy forwards down the court regularly. Once down the floor, Condon’s great catch radius and finishing touch shone, along with his body positioning to wedge himself under the hoop with a deep seal. It’s no wonder, per Synergy, that Condon shot a sterling 78.8% on his transition twos when you tune into the tape...His gargantuan size is a big part, alongside his surprisingly springy leaping ability, but he also brings a soft touch and has great hands to catch lobs and bounce passes. Per Synergy, Condon shot 63.5% at the rim this season, with a “Very Good” rating. Whether off screens, dives to the rim, cuts, or putbacks, there weren’t many looks that Condon couldn’t put into the basket when he got the ball.
...Condon is great on the interior on offense. He’s just as good at passing on the inside, alongside his outside looks...Condon’s stifling screens played a big part, as he would hand off to shooters before walling off their pursuing defenders, but Condon was also great at big-to-big passing and spraying shots out to the perimeter off rebounds. His 1.44 assist-to-turnover ratio, with just a 12.6% turnover percentage, also highlights how careful of a distributor Condon was in the Florida offense.
You shouldn’t confuse Condon as a center-initiator in the vein of Nikola Jokic or Domantas Sabonis. Still, he does show enough verve and vision on his passes that comparisons to a player like, say, Alperen Sengun are a bit more apt. Condon has the size advantage to see over a defense; although he lacks the passing reads to create windows, he’s quite suited to keeping an offense flowing and opening up a few new creases on the court.
To have a good defense requires a team effort, but it also requires a player of Condon’s caliber to anchor the middle and clean up the areas of improvement and weakness...Condon’s defensive aptitude starts and ends with his behemoth size. At the combine, he measured just over 6’11” without shoes with a seven-foot wingspan; he weighed in at 221 pounds. While his lack of plus wingspan is a bit concerning, his presence as a mobile seven-footer is most important. The same great athleticism from a running and jumping perspective that helped Condon in transition and on the offensive glass is apparent in everything he does on defense...Per Synergy, opponents only shot 41.5% at the basket with Condon as the primary defender, which earned a “Very Good” grade...Condon had a 5.8% block percentage in his freshman season and a 5.5% block percentage in his sophomore campaign this past year. Combined with his rim defense percentage, those numbers form the statistical picture of a terrifying monolith inside.
On tape, it’s exhilarating to watch how Condon gets his blocks. He’s just as imposing with his verticality and long reach as a primary defender as he is coming off the weakside for a surprising swat. Condon is also notable for his chase-down expertise and ability to stay stuck to driving perimeter players before knocking away their would-be attempts. Condon’s most important “fix” for the Florida defense was that even when he didn’t contest the shot, Condon’s long arm of the law could dissuade and disrupt attempts at the rim...ability to absorb contact at the rim without fouling is another major feather in his defensive cap. He only averaged 2.3 fouls committed per game this season despite serving as the last line of defense...Condon’s body control and physicality without fouling also helped him to back-to-back seasons with a 22.5% defensive rebounding percentage and a 19.3% defensive rebounding percentage, each representing dominance over the defensive glass.
...he isn’t the mega-athlete needed to be a true switch defender, Condon holds his own on defense outside of the paint. It won’t be his role at the next level, but based upon his athleticism, technique, and reflexes, Condon is built to switch pick-and-rolls before getting back to wall off the paint...active hands...does cover a large area of the court with his presence...stance is hard to drive right by, and even when he’s beaten, his hips are fluid enough to whip around. Then, he uses his hands to disrupt passes and jar the ball loose on drives and dishes...ended up with a 2.0% steals percentage. That’s high enough for me to project him as a multifaceted defensive playmaker, as he often forces turnovers and keeps his blocks inbound.
From a true perimeter standpoint, Condon is firmly average in his defense on guards and wings. He’s often a step slow on his contests, which comes partially due to his positioning near the paint, but his massive size and quick first steps let him contest shots he shouldn’t have the right to get to. Condon also usually closes out under control, letting his reach do the talking, and he never flies by far enough for a defender to shake him out for an open shot. He gets blown by on the outside, but his lateral movement and hips flip fast enough to stay attached to drives and pull-up attempts.
Per Synergy, Alex Condon had some of the most eye-popping defensive numbers this season on spot-ups, isos, and against pick-and-roll ball handlers. Against spot-ups, Condon held opponents to an “Excellent” rating of 30.5% on 82 attempts. Against isolations,he put up a “Very Good” mark of just 25.0% on 36 shots. Finally, although it was on just 15 possessions, Condon gave up a minuscule 6.7% from the field against pick-and-roll ball-handlers...I don’t think he can be a true DPOY-level rim anchor. He’s got a bit of a short reach and isn’t a top percentile athlete, but other than that, Condon’s got most of the other important bases covered...pro-ready his interior defense is, which, as a 20-year-old player, should entice many NBA teams.
If Alex Condon never improves a single aspect of his game again, he’s still a likely multi-year NBA player. A seven-footer with real defensive chops inside and out, who can also rim-run and play well within the flow of an offense, is the exact type of backup big man that plays for a decade in the NBA...all of what Alex Condon could improve upon in his game would make him a likely starter-level NBA player...
The first place to nitpick Condon’s game for fixes is how often he turns the ball over. Critiquing a big man with a 12.6% turnover percentage may feel asinine, but there’s room for improvement for a guy who will never be a high-usage offensive player. Condon’s turnovers fall into two major buckets: errant passes and clumsy stumbles. I can live with the passes, as he hits those reads more often than he misses, but improving his balance and footwork could make Condon’s turnover percentage go from great to spectacular quickly.
From a scoring perspective, there are a few places that Condon is either leaving behind scraps or could be picking up more buckets. Despite his great finishing at the rim, per Synergy, Condon only hit 53.3% of his two-point attempts as the roll man in screening situations. Given Condon’s stiff screen game and likely future uptick as a roller, this is an essential area for him to fix. If he can show more finishes like in the flashes below, it’s hard to find fault in his interior offensive scoring arsenal.
The last bit to add to Condon’s inside-the-arc offense would be evolving as a driver and cutter. He’s already great at ducking into the dunker’s spot, but he shot just 61.0% on his cuts. That number should be higher for a player of his size. As a driver, although it was few and far between, Condon did show off a great pump-and-drive from the perimeter. His handle is too stiff and robotic to earn him any ball-handling roles, but having the occasional drive in his back pocket would round out his game and raise his offensive ceiling.
So, how is Condon’s shooting at this juncture? It’s limited. He’s a judicious shooter, only taking 58 threes this year and 38 last year for a career 31.3% percentage from deep. From a mechanical perspective, Condon’s not a great shooter, as he has a slow release that starts lower and passes a bit too much in front of his field of vision. He does keep his feet set, however; that, alongside his towering height, makes release issues surmountable in the long run...Per Synergy, as a spot-up shooter, Alex Condon shot 16/35, or 45.7%, on these attempts...As a screener, however, it was a different story. Condon only hit 2/18, or 11.1%, of his shots as a pick-and-roll roll man. These possessions are where Condon gets off-balance, can’t square his base, and thus puts up some of the uglier shot attempts...
Condon does fit into a potent modern BartTorvik of players who have an offensive rebounding percentage over 10.0%, a >5.0% blocks percentage, a >2.0 steals percentage, and more than 50 three-point attempts in a season.
He isn’t quite the elusive “unicorn” that every team would love to have, but Condon is certainly a modern big man who can do almost everything his team asks of him on either end...he’s ready right now to play NBA minutes on a good team. That’s not something you can say about other similar big men in this draft, who could use a few more seasons of seasoning to develop...With a few more improvements, Condon would be the same jack-of-all-trades fixer he expertly was for the Gators this season. It would be a case of outlier development for Condon to improve as a shooter and a ball-handler, but the shooting and some touching up of his rolling and footwork would make him a clear starting NBA center. That player, who can fix mistakes on offense and defense while raising the team’s ceiling, is the type that every team in the league covets for filling out and fixing their roster.
