What is the plan here?

[Pointgod]

And SA who got lucky winning a lotto in a generational talent year AND moving up the other 2 years. That exact same "competent mgt" could have Scoot, Holland and #6 in this draft.

Oh, and OKC has 1 top 10 pick on their team and best player was aquited thru trade. And they got to rebuild by trading guys who were top 10 MVP candidates. So easy to replicate.

And we got lucky moving up from 7th to 4th pick. This “rebuild” looks a lot different with Jonathan Kuminga instead of Scottie. What’s your point exactly?

The whole thing looks different with Kuminga instead of Scottie. WE likely have no success in 2021-22 with Kuminga in Scotties place and OG/Siakam get traded a whole year/two earlier.

Its just more proof that rebuilding is as much luck as it is skill. We could have tanked the entire year, won 0 games, and we still would be picking 5th with how the lottery shook out. On the flip side, if we won 5 more games we would be picking 2nd.

You can dismiss any scenario based on luck. If Kawhi’s knees had turned to string cheese a year earlier, then we don’t win a championship, but that doesn’t mean the decision to trade him wasn’t sound. The decision to build through the draft and accumulate assets is sound, even if a bit of luck is involved because you’re putting yourself in a position to take advantage of randomness in your favor while protecting your downside if when the randomness works against you.

The Spurs tried to rebuild using our approach with a team of Demar, Lamarcus Aldridge, Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White and eventually opted for a full tear down after 3 seasons of winning 30 games. I don’t think a single Spurs fan or front office person would say they should have stuck with the core of Demar, White, Murray and Poeltl even if they weren’t in the position to select Wemby. Sometimes you need to take a step back to move two steps forward.

[Tripod]

And we got lucky moving up from 7th to 4th pick. This “rebuild” looks a lot different with Jonathan Kuminga instead of Scottie. What’s your point exactly?

The whole thing looks different with Kuminga instead of Scottie. WE likely have no success in 2021-22 with Kuminga in Scotties place and OG/Siakam get traded a whole year/two earlier.

Its just more proof that rebuilding is as much luck as it is skill. We could have tanked the entire year, won 0 games, and we still would be picking 5th with how the lottery shook out. On the flip side, if we won 5 more games we would be picking 2nd.

You can dismiss any scenario based on luck. If Kawhi’s knees had turned to string cheese a year earlier, then we don’t win a championship, but that doesn’t mean the decision to trade him wasn’t sound. The decision to build through the draft and accumulate assets is sound, even if a bit of luck is involved because you’re putting yourself in a position to take advantage of randomness in your favor while protecting your downside if when the randomness works against you.

The Spurs tried to rebuild using our approach with a team of Demar, Lamarcus Aldridge, Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White and eventually opted for a full tear down after 3 seasons of winning 30 games. I don’t think a single Spurs fan or front office person would say they should have stuck with the core of Demar, White, Murray and Poeltl even if they weren’t in the position to select Wemby. Sometimes you need to take a step back to move two steps forward.

That's what we did trading Siakam and OG and some lost their ****. We are about to take our steps forward next year.

[YogurtProducer]

The whole thing looks different with Kuminga instead of Scottie. WE likely have no success in 2021-22 with Kuminga in Scotties place and OG/Siakam get traded a whole year/two earlier.

Its just more proof that rebuilding is as much luck as it is skill. We could have tanked the entire year, won 0 games, and we still would be picking 5th with how the lottery shook out. On the flip side, if we won 5 more games we would be picking 2nd.

You can dismiss any scenario based on luck. If Kawhi’s knees had turned to string cheese a year earlier, then we don’t win a championship, but that doesn’t mean the decision to trade him wasn’t sound. The decision to build through the draft and accumulate assets is sound, even if a bit of luck is involved because you’re putting yourself in a position to take advantage of randomness in your favor while protecting your downside if when the randomness works against you.

The Spurs tried to rebuild using our approach with a team of Demar, Lamarcus Aldridge, Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White and eventually opted for a full tear down after 3 seasons of winning 30 games. I don’t think a single Spurs fan or front office person would say they should have stuck with the core of Demar, White, Murray and Poeltl even if they weren’t in the position to select Wemby. Sometimes you need to take a step back to move two steps forward.

That's what we did trading Siakam and OG and some lost their ****. We are about to take our steps forward next year.

Right? Like that is exactly what we **** did

Spurs got lottery luck. Without Wemby, they are still complete ****

[mdenny]

HOU - Amen (2nd overall), Jabari (2nd overall), Reed Sheppard (FVV eventual replacement 3rd overall), Jalen Green (2nd overall), Eason (17th overall), Sengun (16th overall)

OKC- Holgren (2nd overall) , Jalen Williams (12th overall)

SA- Wemby (5th overall), Castle (3rd), Harper (2nd)

you can nitpick about how these guys fell exactly in the spots they did, or how good they'll all eventually be but the point stands..

Bottoming out/rebuilding properly for a couple yrs to get elite prospects + be in full rebuilding mode to acquire additional lottery range 1st round picks, is what will keep these teams young contenders for a long time.

= the perfect outcome of a rebuild

and 3 of the most "full rebuild" franchises a couple yrs ago did it.

So it's alot more successful then many want to admit.

BI 2, RJ 3, Barnes 4, Yak 9, 2025 pick 9

This is fun

our guys are cast off, as in dumped by other teams in early careers..

that doesn't really fit the point - drafting elite prospects "that you end up wanting to keep" because their/youre good and worth keeping together..did I have to mention that part?

Not every high draft pick of all time works out ideal obviously, but more shots at the elite ones and competent management gives you the best shot..

as with SA/HOU/OKC was an example of 3 teams who did recently over last couple yrs, turned it around, very bright future, just off top of my head..

holyyy reaching for cope

If the general point is rebuilding properly/PATIENTLY and acquiring elite prospects at the top/near top of draft gives you decent/best chance at a bright future (ex. OKC, SA,HOU)

you making that point with the Raps roster and that it isn't always the case, actually just shows Raps picked up a collection of the guys from teams who didn't make it work and decided to give up on those guys

Impatient, shortcut, treadmill framework

Brandon Ingram IS an elite pick. So are RJ and Barnes.

Where do you think those 3 players would come in redraft for their respective years?

Ingram would still to be top 3. Barnes would still be top 5
RJ would probably be top 5 too. Your argument would make alot more sense to me if all 3 of those guys couldn't crack the top 20 in redrafts. But reality is....all 3 guys were basically drafted where they should be. It's not like any of those 3 were busts.

You guys just can't accept that the "elite" players you are talking about are extremely rare. And they often come from outside the top 5, outside the top 10.

The top 3 players this season were ALL drafted outside the top 10.

All this reveals that the tank ppl are mostly just roulette wheel gamblers. The tank ppl perceive draft picks as a failure even if they result in average expectation for the pick selection.

They want billion dollar organizations to sacrifice entire seasons for spins at a roulette wheel.

[Scase]

BI 2, RJ 3, Barnes 4, Yak 9, 2025 pick 9

This is fun

our guys are cast off, as in dumped by other teams in early careers..

that doesn't really fit the point - drafting elite prospects "that you end up wanting to keep" because their/youre good and worth keeping together..did I have to mention that part?

Not every high draft pick of all time works out ideal obviously, but more shots at the elite ones and competent management gives you the best shot..

as with SA/HOU/OKC was an example of 3 teams who did recently over last couple yrs, turned it around, very bright future, just off top of my head..

holyyy reaching for cope

If the general point is rebuilding properly/PATIENTLY and acquiring elite prospects at the top/near top of draft gives you decent/best chance at a bright future (ex. OKC, SA,HOU)

you making that point with the Raps roster and that it isn't always the case, actually just shows Raps picked up a collection of the guys from teams who didn't make it work and decided to give up on those guys

Impatient, shortcut, treadmill framework

Brandon Ingram IS an elite pick. So are RJ and Barnes.

Where do you think those 3 players would come in redraft for their respective years?

Ingram would still to be top 3. Barnes would still be top 5
RJ would probably be top 5 too. Your argument would make alot more sense to me if all 3 of those guys couldn't crack the top 20 in redrafts. But reality is....all 3 guys were basically drafted where they should be. It's not like any of those 3 were busts.

You guys just can't accept that the "elite" players you are talking about are extremely rare. And they often come from outside the top 5, outside the top 10.

The top 3 players this season were ALL drafted outside the top 10.

All this reveals that the tank ppl are mostly just roulette wheel gamblers. The tank ppl perceive draft picks as a failure even if they result in average expectation for the pick selection.

They want billion dollar organizations to sacrifice entire seasons for spins at a roulette wheel.

I'm sorry, you are saying BI still goes top 3 in his draft?

There is no way he goes over Siakam, Brown, Murray, Sabonis, and arguments can be made for Zubac and Dejounte. Why in gods name would he go top 3 with everyone and their mother knowing that playing 60 games is a good season for him, also over THREE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYERS. This is absurd.

RJ probably stays top 5 due to zion falling out of it, but he has generational talent so some might still place him #1, and I think Herro bumps RJ down.

Scottie is questionable with Cade, mobley, Franz, and Sengun all going before him. But I can see him staying top 5.

I'm not arguing your overall point, but let's be realistic here.

[mdenny]

our guys are cast off, as in dumped by other teams in early careers..

that doesn't really fit the point - drafting elite prospects "that you end up wanting to keep" because their/youre good and worth keeping together..did I have to mention that part?

Not every high draft pick of all time works out ideal obviously, but more shots at the elite ones and competent management gives you the best shot..

as with SA/HOU/OKC was an example of 3 teams who did recently over last couple yrs, turned it around, very bright future, just off top of my head..

holyyy reaching for cope

If the general point is rebuilding properly/PATIENTLY and acquiring elite prospects at the top/near top of draft gives you decent/best chance at a bright future (ex. OKC, SA,HOU)

you making that point with the Raps roster and that it isn't always the case, actually just shows Raps picked up a collection of the guys from teams who didn't make it work and decided to give up on those guys

Impatient, shortcut, treadmill framework

Brandon Ingram IS an elite pick. So are RJ and Barnes.

Where do you think those 3 players would come in redraft for their respective years?

Ingram would still to be top 3. Barnes would still be top 5
RJ would probably be top 5 too. Your argument would make alot more sense to me if all 3 of those guys couldn't crack the top 20 in redrafts. But reality is....all 3 guys were basically drafted where they should be. It's not like any of those 3 were busts.

You guys just can't accept that the "elite" players you are talking about are extremely rare. And they often come from outside the top 5, outside the top 10.

The top 3 players this season were ALL drafted outside the top 10.

All this reveals that the tank ppl are mostly just roulette wheel gamblers. The tank ppl perceive draft picks as a failure even if they result in average expectation for the pick selection.

They want billion dollar organizations to sacrifice entire seasons for spins at a roulette wheel.

I'm sorry, you are saying BI still goes top 3 in his draft?

There is no way he goes over Siakam, Brown, Murray, Sabonis, and arguments can be made for Zubac and Dejounte. Why in gods name would he go top 3 with everyone and their mother knowing that playing 60 games is a good season for him, also over THREE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYERS. This is absurd.

RJ probably stays top 5 due to zion falling out of it, but he has generational talent so some might still place him #1, and I think Herro bumps RJ down.

Scottie is questionable with Cade, mobley, Franz, and Sengun all going before him. But I can see him staying top 5.

I'm not arguing your overall point, but let's be realistic here.

You're right. I got my terms mixed up. Ingram is about equal or greater than the average expectation of the third overall pick. But not better in the average redraft.

Which re-enforces another point against tanking: The average expectation of the third overall pick is MUCH lower than average expectation of the third overall in a redraft.

It would be interesting to calculate the odds that a top 5 pick ends up being top 5 in a redraft. I bet it's lower than 50% - which if true, also shows that the idea that getting top 5 picks are crucial to nba team-building is false.

But if you listened to ppl in our draft discussion thread....you'd swear that it's obvious who will be top 5 in a redraft 10 years from now. And it's THAT assumption which perpetuates the tanking philosophy.

[Scase]

Brandon Ingram IS an elite pick. So are RJ and Barnes.

Where do you think those 3 players would come in redraft for their respective years?

Ingram would still to be top 3. Barnes would still be top 5
RJ would probably be top 5 too. Your argument would make alot more sense to me if all 3 of those guys couldn't crack the top 20 in redrafts. But reality is....all 3 guys were basically drafted where they should be. It's not like any of those 3 were busts.

You guys just can't accept that the "elite" players you are talking about are extremely rare. And they often come from outside the top 5, outside the top 10.

The top 3 players this season were ALL drafted outside the top 10.

All this reveals that the tank ppl are mostly just roulette wheel gamblers. The tank ppl perceive draft picks as a failure even if they result in average expectation for the pick selection.

They want billion dollar organizations to sacrifice entire seasons for spins at a roulette wheel.

I'm sorry, you are saying BI still goes top 3 in his draft?

There is no way he goes over Siakam, Brown, Murray, Sabonis, and arguments can be made for Zubac and Dejounte. Why in gods name would he go top 3 with everyone and their mother knowing that playing 60 games is a good season for him, also over THREE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYERS. This is absurd.

RJ probably stays top 5 due to zion falling out of it, but he has generational talent so some might still place him #1, and I think Herro bumps RJ down.

Scottie is questionable with Cade, mobley, Franz, and Sengun all going before him. But I can see him staying top 5.

I'm not arguing your overall point, but let's be realistic here.

You're right. I got my terms mixed up. Ingram is about equal or greater than the average expectation of the third overall pick. But not better in the average redraft.

Which re-enforces another point against tanking: The average expectation of the third overall pick is MUCH lower than average expectation of the third overall in a redraft.

It would be interesting to calculate the odds that a top 5 pick ends up being top 5 in a redraft. I bet it's lower than 50% - which if true, also shows that the idea that getting top 5 picks are crucial to nba team-building is false.

But if you listened to ppl in our draft discussion thread....you'd swear that it's obvious who will be top 5 in a redraft 10 years from now. And it's THAT assumption which perpetuates the tanking philosophy.

The thing is, everyone glazes Masai for his drafting prowess, and it is clearly his strongest talent. That's why people are looking for as high of a pick as possible. His trades since 2019 have been meh at best, we're playing to our weaknesses, not our strengths.

In the end, you can have the greatest drafting exec in history, but if you keep picking mid to late in the first, you're just limiting your options. lets say you've got cooper, Tre, VJ, Harper, and Ace and you've got the 2nd pick. Cooper is pretty much gone, but then you have this glut of other players that don't look to have any one of them as a clear cut obvious pick. Would you rather have Masai controlling that, or Rob Babcock? Or would you rather have the 9th pick and pick from the scraps?

Nothing is guaranteed no matter what, but you want to put yourself in the best position possible to succeed, and trading for players like BI aren't it.

I don't care much about what people in the drafting thread have to say, because no matter what they want, they aren't the one making the pick. But there is no world in existence where Masai would rather have 5 more wins and the 9th pick, instead of 5 less and the 5th etc. I trust Masai to make the right pick, but I would rather him have the options at a better position, not one of the worst picks you can get.

[Tripod]

If only they had the SA or Dallas luck then TWO could of had their wish come true.

So now it's on MU and Co to make their own luck. Draft a good player at #9 and #39. Be in the lookout for undervalued guys they can get by consolidating assets. Keep developing the new depth they have to keep a pipeline of talent coming and to withstand injuries when they happen. Etc...

Let's see what the offseason brings, since we are already adding a 20+ scorer and a top 10 pick to a team that was showing it could be much better than their record.

[Pointgod]

The whole thing looks different with Kuminga instead of Scottie. WE likely have no success in 2021-22 with Kuminga in Scotties place and OG/Siakam get traded a whole year/two earlier.

Its just more proof that rebuilding is as much luck as it is skill. We could have tanked the entire year, won 0 games, and we still would be picking 5th with how the lottery shook out. On the flip side, if we won 5 more games we would be picking 2nd.

You can dismiss any scenario based on luck. If Kawhi’s knees had turned to string cheese a year earlier, then we don’t win a championship, but that doesn’t mean the decision to trade him wasn’t sound. The decision to build through the draft and accumulate assets is sound, even if a bit of luck is involved because you’re putting yourself in a position to take advantage of randomness in your favor while protecting your downside if when the randomness works against you.

The Spurs tried to rebuild using our approach with a team of Demar, Lamarcus Aldridge, Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White and eventually opted for a full tear down after 3 seasons of winning 30 games. I don’t think a single Spurs fan or front office person would say they should have stuck with the core of Demar, White, Murray and Poeltl even if they weren’t in the position to select Wemby. Sometimes you need to take a step back to move two steps forward.

That's what we did trading Siakam and OG and some lost their ****. We are about to take our steps forward next year.

We waited too long to trade OG and Siakam and didn’t get maximum value for them like the Spurs got for Poeltl, Derozan and Murray (you can argue they sold way lower on White). We didn’t actually try to bottom out, even this year was still a half measure. The Spurs went full rebuild and put themselves in the position to “get lucky” as you guys like to say and they’re objectively in a much better position than we are from a talent standpoint and ability to improve.

[Tripod]

You can dismiss any scenario based on luck. If Kawhi’s knees had turned to string cheese a year earlier, then we don’t win a championship, but that doesn’t mean the decision to trade him wasn’t sound. The decision to build through the draft and accumulate assets is sound, even if a bit of luck is involved because you’re putting yourself in a position to take advantage of randomness in your favor while protecting your downside if when the randomness works against you.

The Spurs tried to rebuild using our approach with a team of Demar, Lamarcus Aldridge, Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White and eventually opted for a full tear down after 3 seasons of winning 30 games. I don’t think a single Spurs fan or front office person would say they should have stuck with the core of Demar, White, Murray and Poeltl even if they weren’t in the position to select Wemby. Sometimes you need to take a step back to move two steps forward.

That's what we did trading Siakam and OG and some lost their ****. We are about to take our steps forward next year.

We waited too long to trade OG and Siakam and didn’t get maximum value for them like the Spurs got for Poeltl, Derozan and Murray (you can argue they sold way lower on White). We didn’t actually try to bottom out, even this year was still a half measure. The Spurs went full rebuild and put themselves in the position to “get lucky” as you guys like to say and they’re objectively in a much better position than we are from a talent standpoint and ability to improve.

Yes they did...and hit on that 14%. And all the other tanking teams didn't. If they had Scoot instead of Wemby, they would be looked at quite different. Luck.

And this year none of the tanking teams did. And last year none of the tanking teams did either.

That's luck for ya.

We all agree the timing on trading for Yak was bad. Where we were in the standings, yes, they should have had a big sell off then.

But it doesn't change the fact that since then, we took the step back in trading OG and Siakam and have re-built the depth and are ready to take the steps forward next year....without the help of luck.

[YogurtProducer]

You can dismiss any scenario based on luck. If Kawhi’s knees had turned to string cheese a year earlier, then we don’t win a championship, but that doesn’t mean the decision to trade him wasn’t sound. The decision to build through the draft and accumulate assets is sound, even if a bit of luck is involved because you’re putting yourself in a position to take advantage of randomness in your favor while protecting your downside if when the randomness works against you.

The Spurs tried to rebuild using our approach with a team of Demar, Lamarcus Aldridge, Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White and eventually opted for a full tear down after 3 seasons of winning 30 games. I don’t think a single Spurs fan or front office person would say they should have stuck with the core of Demar, White, Murray and Poeltl even if they weren’t in the position to select Wemby. Sometimes you need to take a step back to move two steps forward.

That's what we did trading Siakam and OG and some lost their ****. We are about to take our steps forward next year.

We waited too long to trade OG and Siakam and didn’t get maximum value for them like the Spurs got for Poeltl, Derozan and Murray (you can argue they sold way lower on White). We didn’t actually try to bottom out, even this year was still a half measure. The Spurs went full rebuild and put themselves in the position to “get lucky” as you guys like to say and they’re objectively in a much better position than we are from a talent standpoint and ability to improve.

The Spurs sign and traded away Demar. They didn't get maximum value The Spurs also got a godfather offer for Murray. Any team would have accepted that, as would we have for OG/Siakam. Poeltl got them a single first rounder. Which they traded away for a 2031 pick.

In total, the Spurs traded Poeltl/Murray/White/Demar and got back:

Blake Wesley (BOS 2022 1st)
TOR 2024 1st (became 2030 MIN pick swap, and 2031 MIN pick)
ATL 2025 1st (pick #14)
CHI 2025 1st (which I believe somehow got returned to CHI? Maybe in a Fox trade?)
ATL 2026 swap (TBD if this conveys)
ATL 2027 1st
BOS 2028 pick swap (TBD if this conveys)

TOR 2023 2nd (Sidy Cossoko)
TOR 2025 2nd

Khem Birch
Danilo Gallinari
Romeo Langford
Josh Richardson (which NOP apparently gave up 4 2nds for? lol)
Harrison Barnes

For Anunoby/Siakam, the Raps ended with:

Jakobe Walter
Ochai Agbaji
Brandon Ingram (Kelly Olynyk + Bruce Brown)
Immanuel Quickley
RJ Barrett
Jonathan Mogbo
2025 2nd (pick 39)

Jordan Nwora
Kira Lewis

So really IMO, the differences are not huge here. People are obviously getting themselves worked up over the draft mystery box, but IMO our haul is just as good, its just different. We got playable guys, 3 or 4 of them that are NBA starting material. Spurs got picks, and odds are most of them will bust or not be as good (as picks usually do), especially since outside MAYBE the ATL pick none are really looking that great.

The Spurs went full rebuild and put themselves in the position to “get lucky” as you guys like to say and they’re objectively in a much better position than we are from a talent standpoint and ability to improve.

The Spurs last 8 seasons.

47 wins (1st round loss)
48 wins (1st round loss - traded Kawhi after this year)
32 wins
33 wins
34 wins
22 wins
22 wins
34 wins

So no, they DID NOT go full rebuild right away. They treadmilled HARD for 3 years (won more games than we did the last 2 years FFS) before finally pulling the plug and getting extremely lucky with the Wemby draft, and last year, and now this draft again. Seriously - that is 3 straight drafts they have moved up in.

They are only in a much better position than us because of Wemby. If they get Brandon Miller or Scoot Henderson instead they are just another garbage team in tanking perpetuity.

[YogurtProducer]

If only they had the SA or Dallas luck then TWO could of had their wish come true.

So now it's on MU and Co to make their own luck. Draft a good player at #9 and #39. Be in the lookout for undervalued guys they can get by consolidating assets. Keep developing the new depth they have to keep a pipeline of talent coming and to withstand injuries when they happen. Etc...

Let's see what the offseason brings, since we are already adding a 20+ scorer and a top 10 pick to a team that was showing it could be much better than their record.

There are legit reasons to be excited a bit next year.

A 30-win team who is adding a 9th OVR pick, Brandon Ingram, hopefully more than 33 games of Quickley, etc. You assume more than 1 guy plays more than 65 games for us this year...

[Tripod]

If only they had the SA or Dallas luck then TWO could of had their wish come true.

So now it's on MU and Co to make their own luck. Draft a good player at #9 and #39. Be in the lookout for undervalued guys they can get by consolidating assets. Keep developing the new depth they have to keep a pipeline of talent coming and to withstand injuries when they happen. Etc...

Let's see what the offseason brings, since we are already adding a 20+ scorer and a top 10 pick to a team that was showing it could be much better than their record.

There are legit reasons to be excited a bit next year.

A 30-win team who is adding a 9th OVR pick, Brandon Ingram, hopefully more than 33 games of Quickley, etc. You assume more than 1 guy plays more than 65 games for us this year...

And I don't view them as a 30 win team considering we did our damnest to lose winnable games. We easily could of had 5-10 more wins imo.

If we do nothing this offseason, just draft at 9+39, AND add a legit backup C, I expect the Raps to be a 45+ win next year given or health is "normal".

I expect BI to miss games and then others some. Someone missing 20+ I view as not normal. That's why having playable depth is important. It's also why I personally keep RJ because in those games BI, Barnes, IQ miss, we are going to need offense that he can supply.