Top 10 2024 First Round Picks = Which 2025 Pick?

[SkyHook]

Pick ANY advanced stat on bbref: VORP, BPM, WS/48. He's the worst ROY in over four decades.

That's your typical run-of-the-mill, didn't watch Castle play take. Advanced stats on tanking teams mean nothing, you think a winning team would have allowed Castle to shoot over 4 3PA per game at 28%? Of course not.

Rookies, especially young guards, will almost always have poor advanced stats. The exception might be players with defined roles (rim running bigs, 3&D wings) that go to better teams and have lower usage, which was the opposite of Castle's situation.

"But, but, but... yOu DidN't wAtCh HiM plAy!" I watched. Meh.

Yes, rookies typically have poor advanced stats. And Castle's are worse than EVERY ROY in over forty years. But please, continue to rationalize his mediocrity (at best). It's comical.

[wemby]

Pick ANY advanced stat on bbref: VORP, BPM, WS/48. He's the worst ROY in over four decades.

That's your typical run-of-the-mill, didn't watch Castle play take. Advanced stats on tanking teams mean nothing, you think a winning team would have allowed Castle to shoot over 4 3PA per game at 28%? Of course not.

Rookies, especially young guards, will almost always have poor advanced stats. The exception might be players with defined roles (rim running bigs, 3&D wings) that go to better teams and have lower usage, which was the opposite of Castle's situation.

"But, but, but... yOu DidN't wAtCh HiM plAy!" I watched. Meh.

Yes, rookies typically have poor advanced stats. And Castle's are worse than EVERY ROY in over forty years. But please, continue to rationalize his mediocrity (at best). It's comical.

But but but advanced stats even though I didn't post any. I find it funny that a lot of those who bring them up the most understand them the least.

[wemby]

Maluach tested pretty terribly at the combine, FWIW: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1kq7t6w/khaman_maluach_tested_terribly_at_the_combine/

He's big, but he's not a great athlete.

Yeah, I should have been more clear, I meant physical measurements.

[Chinook]

I do think the Spurs should be cautious about Castle, because they aren't really going to want him to be a volume scorer unless his efficiency spikes. He was legit very good in terms of box score stats after the ASB (which is why folks thinking Risacher passed Steph up later in the year are off base. They both hit another gear and Castle maintained his lead). But he has to continue to grow in critical areas to even settle into being a good player on a good team, let alone a legit star.

No, he's very different than MCW if you watch them play. But that's not entirely a good thing. Because MCW showed a defensive potential as a rookie that Steph has get to really show. The RoY award was probably the worst thing that could have happened to MCW, because he was a role-player who should have focused on that. Castle has a lot more potential than Carter-Williams does. If he can shoot well, he can continue to grow in a way Michael couldn't.

So it's a balance. I'm more than happy to keep riding with Castle, and I wouldn't look to trade him for a pick in the 3-10 range in this draft. I'd even be against trading him and 2 for 1. He should be part of the plan going forward. But under no circumstances should be prevent the Spurs from drafting Harper if Dylan is their BPA, and if the Spurs are forced to trade one or the other this off-season, I would prefer them trade Castle. Ideally, though, you keep both and let them develop in the context of both being hybrid guards/wings.

[Texas Chuck]

Too much is being made of statistical performance.
Too much is being made of I watched him play as if any of us are NBA-level scouts.

We are allowed to disagree on what kind of prospect a player is without a person disagreeing with us being an idiot. I promise.

[SkyHook]

That's your typical run-of-the-mill, didn't watch Castle play take. Advanced stats on tanking teams mean nothing, you think a winning team would have allowed Castle to shoot over 4 3PA per game at 28%? Of course not.

Rookies, especially young guards, will almost always have poor advanced stats. The exception might be players with defined roles (rim running bigs, 3&D wings) that go to better teams and have lower usage, which was the opposite of Castle's situation.

"But, but, but... yOu DidN't wAtCh HiM plAy!" I watched. Meh.

Yes, rookies typically have poor advanced stats. And Castle's are worse than EVERY ROY in over forty years. But please, continue to rationalize his mediocrity (at best). It's comical.

But but but advanced stats even though I didn't post any. I find it funny that a lot of those who bring them up the most understand them the least.

You cited TS% which is an advanced stat in that it's calculated with a formula which includes an approximated value (true shooting attempts defined as 0.44 x free throw attempts).

[Texas Chuck]

Also its 2025. "Advanced" stats are just stats now. We've learned that just box score counting stats only tell us what happened without any meaningful context. Things like efficiency data, turnover rate, how a team rebounds with you on the court, lineup data, etc all much more informative.

Anyone dismissing those as newfangled nonsense and just wanting to quote slash lines probably shouldn't be lecturing others on how much smarter they are. Especially not following that up with I watched my guy play but not also I watched every other rookie play equally much and I watched all these incoming prospects.

A myopic focus on one player/team can actually make you less able to put them into context not more. Its why our posters who comment on deals for every team tend to have the best sense of player value when deals actually happen and single team posters are almost always too high on their players. Because they consume almost exclusively positive media/twitter/local broadcasts etc.... And they tend to minimize flaws for their guys while maximizing them on the guys they aren't actually very familiar with.

I listen when other posters talk to me about Mavs players. I know I've got attachments to guys and will overvalue them if not careful. I'm still wanting a lottery pick for Doe Doe lol.