The Bucks Bail Boston Out... Or Does BOS Bail the Bucks Out?

[hugepatsfan]

Update: swapped GSW out for ATL on Lopez and added BRK to take a salary so SAC didn't go over the tax



BOS gives: Holiday, Porzingis, 3 future 2nds
BOS gets: Patrick Williams

Why? Celtics shed $45.1M this which gets them all the way below the 2nd apron. Williams deal is long but he might be a good fit in a supporting role for them.

MIL gives: Kuzma, Portis, PatC, Brook Lopez (3 year deal starting at $17,851,479 with declining salaries and 3rd year non guaranteed)
MIL gets: Holiday, Porzingis

Why? Bring back Giannis' friend in Holiday and also get Porzingis who reportedly he's got a relationship with. They convince him this gives him enough of a supporting cast to stick with MIL one more year.

ATL gives: nothing
ATL gets: Brook Lopez (3 year deal starting at $17,851,479 with declining salaries and 3rd year non guaranteed, taken into Murray TPE), future BOS 2nd

Why? Get a stretch 5 and defensive anchor. Combined with Okongwu, gives them good variety at center.

CHI gives: Patrick Williams, 2 future 2nds
CHI gets: Kyle Kuzma

Why? Shed some long term money since Kuzma has 2 years to 4 for Williams.

SAC gives: nothing
SAC gets: Portis (MLE or Huerter TPE), 2 future BOS 2nds

Why? Get a good fit for their MLE/TPE and get paid 2nds for it.

SAC gives: nothing
SAC gets: PatC, 2 future CHI 2nds

Why? Take on expiring salary for 2nds with their cap space.

[Godaddycurse]

For gsw to do this they have to renounce Kuminga basically. Not sure if they would be willing to do that.

Milwaukee after this has 25M or so to fill 10 roster spots after their big 4... Thats tough but i guess still better than status quo

Dont think Sacramento want to go over the tax for Portis and Pat C

[hugepatsfan]

For gsw to do this they have to renounce Kuminga basically. Not sure if they would be willing to do that.

Milwaukee after this has 25M or so to fill 10 roster spots after their big 4... Thats tough but i guess still better than status quo

Dont think Sacramento want to go over the tax for Portis and Pat C

Ah, I missed that nuance for GSW. The Hawks have the full MLE to use and the Murray TPE for more than that. Maybe they fit better for Lopez in the same deal construct?

Kuzma/PatC/Portis is $45,280,228 out for the Bucks. Porzingis/Jrue is $63,131,707. Difference of $17,851,479. Lopez at the MLE was enough to match but left them hard capped at the 1st apron. If ATL is in the dela instead, because of Murray TPE, they can offer more than the MLE up to that $17.85M number. So if they sign him for a deal starting at that with declining salary from there (3rd year non guaranteed) then that gives MIL more room to build since now hard capped at 2nd apron rather than 1st, I believe.

My miss on the SAC part. One of Portis/PatC needs to go into a TPE/MLE somewhere else. But feels doable I think since the 4 2nds I had going to them can be split up.

[Djh7475]

If this is the best the Celtics could do, I’d cut out Chicago. I would much rather Kuzma for 2/$42M than Patrick Williams for 4/$72M - especially with Tatum probably not playing next season. Kuzma could ball out here and get traded next offseason as an expiring contract if needed for neutral value. Patrick Williams is just an anchor on your books for 4 years. Chicago is stealing value.

[Notanoob]

This is a lot of moving parts, but I like the bones of it a lot. Milwaukee is desperate and Boston just needs to get rid of their players by any means necessary. Moving on from Brook and Portis would suck for them, but they just don't have any moves to make.

[jayjaysee]

Ya I liked Atlanta here. And no need to worsen the contract by involving Chicago imo. Buy 2nds cheaper.

[Texas Chuck]

Not sure Lopez signs with Atlanta. Curious the reasoning for him going along? Is it just money? I would expect him to make a decision not based on just money.

[Godaddycurse]

Lopez isnt the best fit with Trae. Not sure i like atlanta fit

[hugepatsfan]

For the feedback on BOS flipping Kuzma for Patrick Williams... I'm kind of a Patrick Williams truther. I think he could be a good role player for BOS. But also, the $4.4M saved from Kuzma to him is very critical for the tax math for BOS. Assuming BOS signs their #28 and #31 picks, swapping Jrue/KP for Patrick Williams' $18M salary would leave them $1,153,266 below the tax but with only 13 players signed. They'd have to do a bunch of back of the roster math to fill that 14th spot. Maybe deal their #28 pick for #31 so they can sign a contract that will be about $1.5M cheaper in year 1. Maybe pay a midseason 2nd to dump a vet min guy and replace with a pro rated salary. That type of stuff. Adding Kuzma for an extra $4.4M means they'd have to also salary dump Hauser or Pritchard, which I'd rather not do.

On the Lopez stuff... probably not too well thought out. I originally had him signing with GSW for the full MLE, but GoDaddyCurse pointed out that GSW would have to renounce Kuminga for that and it would leave MIL hard capped at the 1st apron which makes filling out their team tough. Maybe ATL isn't the right fit. I picked them because they had the money to make a strong financial offer for him via the TPE, but they might not be the fit.

The deal does work as long as MIL sends out $5.35M. They could do a "pillow" contract with Ryan Rollins that pays him $5.3M in year 1 and non guaranteed after that. That leaves them hard capped at lower apron though. BOS can always bite the bullet and take him back (but per my math above would cost them Hauser who'd have to be dealt somewhere). End of the day, if Jrue/Porzingis buys MIL another year with Giannis and BOS can duck the tax altogether without sending future 1sts to cripple their future, I think both parties will be motivated to do whatever they could to execute.

[hugepatsfan]

https://www.si.com/nba/bucks/news/bucks-brook-lopez-reportedly-already-drawing-interest-from-west-contender

Article of Lakers interest in Lopez. They could be a replacement for ATL here if interest is mututal.

They send Vando to BOS and Vincent or Kleber to some other team. That lets them pay Lopez the $17.9M that Lopez needs to sign for without hard capping MIL. Since they're clearing Vando, they owe some 2nds that can be used to cover the cost of dumping Vincent or Kleber somewhere. BOS taking back Vando requires them making a follow up move to dump Hauser into a TPE/MLE somewhere, which isn't ideal, but kind of is what it is for them.

[gswhoops]

I'd let JK walk if it meant getting Lopez, FWIW.

[JonHeist]

this isn't bad

I don't like giving up bobby and taking on jrue's awful contract without getting any draft compensation tho -- and porzingis is too unreliable for his contract to have any real positive value

I think I'd do it anyways if giannis promises to sign an extension tho -- even tho I think he's far far less likely to leave than this board does


as an aside this board is massively overvaluing brook (tbf I think quite a few teams probably do/will too) (and undervaluing giannis, but that's mostly just cuz you're acting like he's asked out when he hasn't)

[Ron Swanson]

I think this is the exact kind of deal Milwaukee should be looking to make. Take on some bad money tied up in still useful players, keeps Giannis content without giving up any more future 1st's, and you can re-connect next offseason when they'll have up to 3-4 picks and swaps to trade for one last pitch to convince him to sign the next extension. Boston gets to dump salary and get below the 2nd apron without giving up much. You can probably find a different taker for Lopez like you guys have discussed (Golden State or LA). Only hurdle from the Bucks end might be I don't see Portis exercising his player option (he'll want a multi-year deal most likely). But otherwise I think the value makes sense all around here.

[Texas Chuck]

as an aside this board is massively overvaluing brook (tbf I think quite a few teams probably do/will too) (and undervaluing giannis, but that's mostly just cuz you're acting like he's asked out when he hasn't)

Not sure the board has commented much on BroLo other than to say he should be in demand as a free agent. Haven't seen anyone suggest some huge contract or bidding war?

And yes Giannis is getting badly undervalued. But not because people assume he's asked out. People assume he only gets traded if he asks out, which I would guess you agree with? No, people are undervaluing him for the usual reasons:

I want him cheap for my team
Age and style of play -- he's about to fall off a cliff lol
Typical overrating of prospects and picks -- all my guys will hit their ceilings, we'll pick the right guy
A lack of understanding of just how much more valuable one season of an MVP level player is than many seasons of an all-star level player.

[JonHeist]

as an aside this board is massively overvaluing brook (tbf I think quite a few teams probably do/will too) (and undervaluing giannis, but that's mostly just cuz you're acting like he's asked out when he hasn't)

Not sure the board has commented much on BroLo other than to say he should be in demand as a free agent. Haven't seen anyone suggest some huge contract or bidding war?

And yes Giannis is getting badly undervalued. But not because people assume he's asked out. People assume he only gets traded if he asks out, which I would guess you agree with? No, people are undervaluing him for the usual reasons:

I want him cheap for my team
Age and style of play -- he's about to fall off a cliff lol
Typical overrating of prospects and picks -- all my guys will hit their ceilings, we'll pick the right guy
A lack of understanding of just how much more valuable one season of an MVP level player is than many seasons of an all-star level player.

on the brook thing I think wanting to pay him 54/3 is nuts, especially if you're giving up an asset in a S&T

he's so slow you have to basically design your offense around him always standing 30ft away from the basket and your defense around him never leaving the paint for more than a second at a time

he's just a coach's nightmare, probably the least adaptable "good" player in the league -- only makes sense for a team with zero playable centers that's capped out

[hugepatsfan]

as an aside this board is massively overvaluing brook (tbf I think quite a few teams probably do/will too) (and undervaluing giannis, but that's mostly just cuz you're acting like he's asked out when he hasn't)

Not sure the board has commented much on BroLo other than to say he should be in demand as a free agent. Haven't seen anyone suggest some huge contract or bidding war?

And yes Giannis is getting badly undervalued. But not because people assume he's asked out. People assume he only gets traded if he asks out, which I would guess you agree with? No, people are undervaluing him for the usual reasons:

I want him cheap for my team
Age and style of play -- he's about to fall off a cliff lol
Typical overrating of prospects and picks -- all my guys will hit their ceilings, we'll pick the right guy
A lack of understanding of just how much more valuable one season of an MVP level player is than many seasons of an all-star level player.

on the brook thing I think wanting to pay him 54/3 is nuts, especially if you're giving up an asset in a S&T

he's so slow you have to basically design your offense around him always standing 30ft away from the basket and your defense around him never leaving the paint for more than a second at a time

he's just a coach's nightmare, probably the least adaptable "good" player in the league -- only makes sense for a team with zero playable centers that's capped out

Just two points of clarification on Brook... I had the third year as non guaranteed, so it would be 2 years, $34M really. S&T rules just require a 3rd year so I had to tack that on. I also have ATL getting, not giving, an asset (2nd round pick) in the deal.

[hugepatsfan]

There's also a simpler version of this without Porzingis going to MIL that can be pulled out...

BOS gives: Jrue
BOS gets: Patrick Williams, MIL's choice of Tyler Smith/Chris Livingston

CHI gives: Patrick Williams, future 2nds
CHI gets: Kuzma

MIL gives: Kuzma, PatC, choice of Tyler Smith/Chris Livingston
MIL gets: Jrue, future 2nds

SAC or whoever gives: nothing
SAC or whoever gets: PatC taken into TPE/MLE, future 2nd

The Bucks make a trade that's likely to make Giannis happy or at least happier than he is with Kuzma. They avoid hard cap at 1st apron this year including a small filler. Jrue makes more than Kuzma next year but offsets about 2/3 of the total. The concern is really taking that 3rd year, but if this buys them some time with Giannis it's worth it. Next year they have Dame either back on the court or more usable in trades since expiring so if they can just get by for a year that's big.

CHI sheds some money so paying the 2nds. BOS sheds some money too but takes back a longer deal and worse player. SAC or whoever gets a decent bench player and a pick.

[JonHeist]

Spoiler:

Not sure the board has commented much on BroLo other than to say he should be in demand as a free agent. Haven't seen anyone suggest some huge contract or bidding war?

And yes Giannis is getting badly undervalued. But not because people assume he's asked out. People assume he only gets traded if he asks out, which I would guess you agree with? No, people are undervaluing him for the usual reasons:

I want him cheap for my team
Age and style of play -- he's about to fall off a cliff lol
Typical overrating of prospects and picks -- all my guys will hit their ceilings, we'll pick the right guy
A lack of understanding of just how much more valuable one season of an MVP level player is than many seasons of an all-star level player.

on the brook thing I think wanting to pay him 54/3 is nuts, especially if you're giving up an asset in a S&T

he's so slow you have to basically design your offense around him always standing 30ft away from the basket and your defense around him never leaving the paint for more than a second at a time

he's just a coach's nightmare, probably the least adaptable "good" player in the league -- only makes sense for a team with zero playable centers that's capped out

Just two points of clarification on Brook... I had the third year as non guaranteed, so it would be 2 years, $34M really. S&T rules just require a 3rd year so I had to tack that on. I also have ATL getting, not giving, an asset (2nd round pick) in the deal.

I don't think that's unrealistic at all

just def wouldn't be doing it if I were a GM

[JonHeist]

There's also a simpler version of this without Porzingis going to MIL that can be pulled out...

BOS gives: Jrue
BOS gets: Patrick Williams, MIL's choice of Tyler Smith/Chris Livingston

CHI gives: Patrick Williams, future 2nds
CHI gets: Kuzma

MIL gives: Kuzma, PatC, choice of Tyler Smith/Chris Livingston
MIL gets: Jrue, future 2nds

SAC or whoever gives: nothing
SAC or whoever gets: PatC taken into TPE/MLE, future 2nd

The Bucks make a trade that's likely to make Giannis happy or at least happier than he is with Kuzma. They avoid hard cap at 1st apron this year including a small filler. Jrue makes more than Kuzma next year but offsets about 2/3 of the total. The concern is really taking that 3rd year, but if this buys them some time with Giannis it's worth it. Next year they have Dame either back on the court or more usable in trades since expiring so if they can just get by for a year that's big.

CHI sheds some money so paying the 2nds. BOS sheds some money too but takes back a longer deal and worse player. SAC or whoever gets a decent bench player and a pick.

definitely wouldn't be tyler smith from the bucks, he's fairly promising and a very good fit next to giannis

livingston is pretty much a nothing

again, I'd do this one if giannis promises to sign an extension -- it's a good proposal, but I'm far from loving it, that last year on jrue's deal is going to be brutal

[hugepatsfan]

There's also a simpler version of this without Porzingis going to MIL that can be pulled out...

BOS gives: Jrue
BOS gets: Patrick Williams, MIL's choice of Tyler Smith/Chris Livingston

CHI gives: Patrick Williams, future 2nds
CHI gets: Kuzma

MIL gives: Kuzma, PatC, choice of Tyler Smith/Chris Livingston
MIL gets: Jrue, future 2nds

SAC or whoever gives: nothing
SAC or whoever gets: PatC taken into TPE/MLE, future 2nd

The Bucks make a trade that's likely to make Giannis happy or at least happier than he is with Kuzma. They avoid hard cap at 1st apron this year including a small filler. Jrue makes more than Kuzma next year but offsets about 2/3 of the total. The concern is really taking that 3rd year, but if this buys them some time with Giannis it's worth it. Next year they have Dame either back on the court or more usable in trades since expiring so if they can just get by for a year that's big.

CHI sheds some money so paying the 2nds. BOS sheds some money too but takes back a longer deal and worse player. SAC or whoever gets a decent bench player and a pick.

definitely wouldn't be tyler smith from the bucks, he's fairly promising and a very good fit next to giannis

livingston is pretty much a nothing

again, I'd do this one if giannis promises to sign an extension -- it's a good proposal, but I'm far from loving it

That's fair, that's why I said MIL's choice. On stats it looks like neither is worth much but you never know how teams view development and potential behind the scenes.

Technically, neither is needed in that deal. Including one of them just takes MIL from taking back slightly more money then sending out in a Kuzma/PatC for Jrue to swap to taking back slightly less, which means they get hard capped at the 2nd apron instead of the 1st. Sounds like it's worth it for you guys to include Livingston for that and BOS can take him back as part of filling out their roster even if he sucks.