2025 OFFSEASON

[wco81]

Weakest strength of schedule.

But for all we know, a couple of the teams which had poor records bounce back and then that strength of schedule percentage goes up based on 2025 records by midseason.

[CrimsonCrew]

Weakest strength of schedule.

But for all we know, a couple of the teams which had poor records bounce back and then that strength of schedule percentage goes up based on 2025 records by midseason.

Bears and Falcons are contenders to improve over last year. Jags probably, too, though it's hard to take them too seriously at this point. I think the Cards could be a fair bit better, particularly on D. And that Browns' defense should be pretty nasty up front.

[CrimsonCrew]

Did folks catch that? DJ Humphries is actually not on the team? That came as news to me in the last day. That does not give me a great feeling about our offensive tackle situation. I had questions about Humphreys, but at least he has played the position well. Dillard and Petit-Frere have not.

[Pattersonca65]

Looks like the 49ers are close to a deal with Fred Warner

[Pattersonca65]

Did folks catch that? DJ Humphries is actually not on the team? That came as news to me in the last day. That does not give me a great feeling about our offensive tackle situation. I had questions about Humphreys, but at least he has played the position well. Dillard and Petit-Frere have not.

I saw that a few days ago. Rumor circulating about his physical condition

[Jikkle]

Weakest strength of schedule.

But for all we know, a couple of the teams which had poor records bounce back and then that strength of schedule percentage goes up based on 2025 records by midseason.

That's why weak strength of schedule rarely translates into the following season because bad teams have the biggest room for improvement and they typically are the ones that making coaching changes, front office changes, or rebound after a bad season.

Oddly enough we're kinda an example of that because healthy this isn't a 6 win 4th place in division team so we're playing last place teams that are improved but probably still closer to being last place teams than real contending ones.

[Jikkle]

I don't know if the Darnold experiment ultimately is going to work? But I don't think they view him as anything but a short term bridge QB. Especially with how the contract is written up. There basically is very little guaranteed money beyond the first year. They weren't willing to commit to Geno long-term. The same is true for Darnold. Which is why I'm not surprised they drafted a QB & took a swing on a prospect like Milroe.

Darnold was Klint Kubiak's guy. That's why he's now the starter in Seattle. At least in the short term.

Do I expect this team to compete with Darnold this season? Not necessarily. But I see the vision for what they're trying to do. Mike Macdonald is trying to shape the roster in his image (Ravens). Carroll did a similar thing in his first couple of years in Seattle.

Geno, Lockett & Metcalf all had strong ties to Carroll.

Yeah, the division should be pretty interesting this year. There's reason for optimism and pessimism for all four teams. I think the Cards could be noticeably better, especially on defense. That Rams' offense could be pretty darn nasty, and the D should only be getting better. And if Darnold can hold it together - which might also involve the OL pretty heavily - the Hawks could be good. The Niners could be the best or the worst depending on guys returning from injury, rookies, etc. I really have no idea what to expect. You could tell me the division ended up in any order and I wouldn't be too surprised.

The O-line is still a work in progress. Which is why I'm not fully bought in to Darnold & the team's overall chances this year.

Adding Grey Zabel was a necessary move for them. But you also have a starting Right Tackle that has yet to play a full season & has dealt with a chronic knee issue which has caused him to miss a lot of time. As well as a Right Guard situation that still is unresolved. They did not add a veteran starter in free agency & instead are relying mostly on younger guys to develop. Which has been a re-occurring theme for this team.

I do think the defense has a ton of potential & is trending in the right direction under Macdonald. But there are too many questions on the other side of the ball to fully buy in. Especially with a new system in place.

But you can clearly see the vision that they have with who they've drafted & the type of guys they've brought in.

Byron Murphy has often been compared to Madubuike. Then you have guys in this recent draft like Emmanwori, Milroe, etc. It felt very much like a Ravens type of draft.

As far as the rest of the division, I see the Rams as the clear favorite. The Niners should remain competitive. But they did lose a ton of depth on that defense. Health, as always, will be key.

I like what Seattle is doing with their defense and there might be a chance they end up with the best defense in the division but on the flipside I think they probably have the worst offense in the division and that'll be an issue when every team in the division on paper has the makings of having pretty good defenses.

[Jikkle]

I've been a bit pessimistic about the season, but wanted to make a post about some reasons for optimism. Obviously the schedule may be the single biggest one. It's a very light schedule, and we need to capitalize on it to make another playoff run or this FO should feel some heat. But there are other reasons to have a positive view of the upcoming season, several of them linked to the reasons why last year went off the rails.

Arguably the biggest issue for this team last year was 4th quarter defense, which repeatedly cost us close games (granted the offense did not pull its weight, either). I attribute those struggles primarily to two things: 1) a complete inability to stop the run late in games, and 2) a completely vanilla scheme that repeatedly allowed for conversions on 3rd and 4th down.

The Niners were 25th in the league, allowing conversions on over 43% of third downs. They allowed over 65% of fourth down conversions. And it go worse the longer the game went. They couldn't get off the field. The run D was bad, allowing over 124 YPG, but it got much worse as the season progressed. They allowed 156 YPG over the final three games, 220 to the Bills (over 100 to Cook), 169 to the Packers (over 100 to Jacobs). This year, the run defense should be much-improved. We added three really good run-stoppers on the DL and - although quite undersized - a really good LB and nickel back against the run. Our short-yardage defense in particular should be pretty potent. I'm not sure another NFL team has a better run-stopping starting four than Bosa, Collins, West, and Williams.

The addition of Saleh should dramatically improve the scheme, and will hopefully put us into more favorable situations. I think we're weaker on the back end this year, but our front-seven should be better. We also added a number of back-seven players who have excelled at blitzing, so I think we'll see a more aggressive approach. Sorensen just ran man coverage almost every single time on 3rd and long. We never figured out how to defend a bunch formation. I can't see that happening this year.

The other big reason for optimism is that I think our red zone offense could be much better. Despite CMC's injury last year, we ran the ball reasonably well. We were 12th in the league in overall rushing yards, and 9th in yards per attempt. However, our primary RBs, Mason and Guerendo, don't have very good vision. They did okay between the 20s, where the scheme and their physicality allowed them to make some things happen (Mason more so than Guerendo, who was pretty boom-or-bust). But inside the 20, when things tightened up, the lack of vision really showed.

Mason carried 32 times inside the 20, but only had three TDs. His average plummeted from 5.2 overall to 2.9 YPC. Similar runners in terms of YPC fared noticeably better. Bucky Irving had a 5.4 YPC average, and a 4.0 YPC with eight TDs on 37 carries inside the 20. James Cook averaged 5.0 YPC overall, and fell to 3.0 in the red zone, but also scored 12 TDs on 48 carries.

Guerendo was better in the red zone despite his worse vision overall, maintaining a 3.5 YPC average and scoring on four of 14 carries, but seven total red-zone rushing TDs from our primary RBs just isn't good enough (CMC didn't have any).

Some of the red zone struggles fall on our OL. But we need backs with vision down there, too. CMC struggled on limited carries this past year, but he has demonstrated an ability to convert previously. And this is where the addition of Jordan James should pay dividends if CMC goes down again. James isn't a burner, but he's got very good vision and was lethal in the red zone. He converted 15 TDs inside the 20, 14 of them inside the 10. That should be a huge improvement over what we had last year.

Anyway, still plenty to worry about in terms of passing D, OL play, Purdy's trajectory, aging and injured players, etc. But it wouldn't take much for this team to snatch a few more games than last year's team and be right back in the mix for playoffs and possibly more this year.

I'm optimistic this season as long as health doesn't play a major role.

Season to me is going to hinge on if we hit on this draft class and if we do how quickly the defense gels together.

Don't love the scheme but Saleh is a massive upgrade running it and players should be technically sound in fundamentals and execution. Plus I expect him to be more aggressive and creative than Sorensen was.

Offensively it's not really much different from 2023. When and how effective Aiyuk is when he comes back is a major question mark but I'd say Pearsall is an upgrade over Deebo. If Aiyuk returns to form or close to it than it makes for a far better balance of targets vs last year when it was mostly big bodies slow guys that struggled to get separation and didn't threaten a defense deep at all.

I mean the offensive line is still an issue but we had Brendal and McKivitz on the line in 2023 as well so it shouldn't be any worse at least. Puni probably will be better, Trent is way better than Moore, and LG might be an upgrade just by virtue of how frequently bad Banks was a lot of the time.

CMC when he did play last season didn't look great but I'm willing to chalk that up more to him not getting any offseason work and jumping in late in the season rather it being a sign of major decline. I expect with a normal offseason workload he'll be back on track this upcoming season.

[CrimsonCrew]

I've been a bit pessimistic about the season, but wanted to make a post about some reasons for optimism. Obviously the schedule may be the single biggest one. It's a very light schedule, and we need to capitalize on it to make another playoff run or this FO should feel some heat. But there are other reasons to have a positive view of the upcoming season, several of them linked to the reasons why last year went off the rails.

Arguably the biggest issue for this team last year was 4th quarter defense, which repeatedly cost us close games (granted the offense did not pull its weight, either). I attribute those struggles primarily to two things: 1) a complete inability to stop the run late in games, and 2) a completely vanilla scheme that repeatedly allowed for conversions on 3rd and 4th down.

The Niners were 25th in the league, allowing conversions on over 43% of third downs. They allowed over 65% of fourth down conversions. And it go worse the longer the game went. They couldn't get off the field. The run D was bad, allowing over 124 YPG, but it got much worse as the season progressed. They allowed 156 YPG over the final three games, 220 to the Bills (over 100 to Cook), 169 to the Packers (over 100 to Jacobs). This year, the run defense should be much-improved. We added three really good run-stoppers on the DL and - although quite undersized - a really good LB and nickel back against the run. Our short-yardage defense in particular should be pretty potent. I'm not sure another NFL team has a better run-stopping starting four than Bosa, Collins, West, and Williams.

The addition of Saleh should dramatically improve the scheme, and will hopefully put us into more favorable situations. I think we're weaker on the back end this year, but our front-seven should be better. We also added a number of back-seven players who have excelled at blitzing, so I think we'll see a more aggressive approach. Sorensen just ran man coverage almost every single time on 3rd and long. We never figured out how to defend a bunch formation. I can't see that happening this year.

The other big reason for optimism is that I think our red zone offense could be much better. Despite CMC's injury last year, we ran the ball reasonably well. We were 12th in the league in overall rushing yards, and 9th in yards per attempt. However, our primary RBs, Mason and Guerendo, don't have very good vision. They did okay between the 20s, where the scheme and their physicality allowed them to make some things happen (Mason more so than Guerendo, who was pretty boom-or-bust). But inside the 20, when things tightened up, the lack of vision really showed.

Mason carried 32 times inside the 20, but only had three TDs. His average plummeted from 5.2 overall to 2.9 YPC. Similar runners in terms of YPC fared noticeably better. Bucky Irving had a 5.4 YPC average, and a 4.0 YPC with eight TDs on 37 carries inside the 20. James Cook averaged 5.0 YPC overall, and fell to 3.0 in the red zone, but also scored 12 TDs on 48 carries.

Guerendo was better in the red zone despite his worse vision overall, maintaining a 3.5 YPC average and scoring on four of 14 carries, but seven total red-zone rushing TDs from our primary RBs just isn't good enough (CMC didn't have any).

Some of the red zone struggles fall on our OL. But we need backs with vision down there, too. CMC struggled on limited carries this past year, but he has demonstrated an ability to convert previously. And this is where the addition of Jordan James should pay dividends if CMC goes down again. James isn't a burner, but he's got very good vision and was lethal in the red zone. He converted 15 TDs inside the 20, 14 of them inside the 10. That should be a huge improvement over what we had last year.

Anyway, still plenty to worry about in terms of passing D, OL play, Purdy's trajectory, aging and injured players, etc. But it wouldn't take much for this team to snatch a few more games than last year's team and be right back in the mix for playoffs and possibly more this year.

I'm optimistic this season as long as health doesn't play a major role.

Season to me is going to hinge on if we hit on this draft class and if we do how quickly the defense gels together.

Don't love the scheme but Saleh is a massive upgrade running it and players should be technically sound in fundamentals and execution. Plus I expect him to be more aggressive and creative than Sorensen was.

Offensively it's not really much different from 2023. When and how effective Aiyuk is when he comes back is a major question mark but I'd say Pearsall is an upgrade over Deebo. If Aiyuk returns to form or close to it than it makes for a far better balance of targets vs last year when it was mostly big bodies slow guys that struggled to get separation and didn't threaten a defense deep at all.

I mean the offensive line is still an issue but we had Brendal and McKivitz on the line in 2023 as well so it shouldn't be any worse at least. Puni probably will be better, Trent is way better than Moore, and LG might be an upgrade just by virtue of how frequently bad Banks was a lot of the time.

CMC when he did play last season didn't look great but I'm willing to chalk that up more to him not getting any offseason work and jumping in late in the season rather it being a sign of major decline. I expect with a normal offseason workload he'll be back on track this upcoming season.

I don't have the same faith in Brendel. He'll turn 33 early this season. In addition to never being great, he's now quite old. He was so bad at pass blocking last year. He'd hold up for maybe a second-and-a-half, and then he'd just stand there and watch Purdy run for his life. I'm really hoping Hennessy or Zakelj gets the job this year.

That said, Puni should improve over a strong rookie season. Hopefully Trent stays healthy, and I agree that LG could easily be an addition by subtraction in moving on from Banks.

Aiyuk and CMC are the big questions on offense (Trent too, of course). If those two can be anywhere near their 2023 level of play, we should be good on that side of the ball. Defense has a lot more unknowns, but also more of an influx of talent.

[CrimsonCrew]

Warner signed to a three-year extension that has him under contract for five more years.

[arich35]

What a difference between this off-season and last so far. Kittle, Purdy, & Warner are far less diva like than Aiyuk & Williams

[RIPskaterdude]

Glad they got Warner done, but not sure how many more years he can play they way he does.

[Harry Palmer]

What a difference between this off-season and last so far. Kittle, Purdy, & Warner are far less diva like than Aiyuk & Williams

Imo it’s much more about an organizational choice to avoid the drama…unless virtually every guy who signed previously was a diva, including Kittle previously. I think they decided the cost of holdouts wasn’t worth ‘winning’ each negotiation by as much. Whether or not we agree with the deals, I think we should be encouraged that they have shown they can learn from their mistakes, which honestly was not much in evidence before this. (And remains a question on the OL, but that’s another story.)

[clyde21]

Aiyuk really should've been traded before that drama ever happened, you just don't pay big $ for a WR in our system. 30 million for a WR that wasn't gonna catch much more than 80 balls a year is a weird decision

[Jikkle]

Glad they got Warner done, but not sure how many more years he can play they way he does.

Linebackers tend to age well so I think he can maintain a high level of play as long as he avoids major injury.

[CrimsonCrew]

Turning attention to next season, we're starting to see some depth chart/roster projections emerge. I realize Drake Nugent is a longshot to make the active roster, much less to start, but I keep hearing a curious thing from people: that he's limited because he has short arms.

Now, look, Nugent is really undersized to play OL in the NFL, even at center. He's 6'1 1/2", which is 4th percentile for centers and 1st percentile for OL overall. He was under 300 pounds at the combine. But his arms are arguably his greatest asset. He has 33" arms, which is 62nd percentile for center and longer than Brendel, Hennessy, or Zakelj. In fact, his arms are longer than every IOL on the roster except Burford and Puni.

[Pattersonca65]

https://kckingdom.com/chiefs-already-having-doubts-about-big-veteran-addition-01jvqh9jjbbs

[CrimsonCrew]

Aiyuk really should've been traded before that drama ever happened, you just don't pay big $ for a WR in our system. 30 million for a WR that wasn't gonna catch much more than 80 balls a year is a weird decision

Deebo too. We could have had the Jets' 10th pick for Deebo and the pick we used on Drake Jackson. Could've had Garrett Wilson, or could have traded back and accumulated more picks (the 11th pick was traded for 16, 98, and 120).

[clyde21]

Aiyuk really should've been traded before that drama ever happened, you just don't pay big $ for a WR in our system. 30 million for a WR that wasn't gonna catch much more than 80 balls a year is a weird decision

Deebo too. We could have had the Jets' 10th pick for Deebo and the pick we used on Drake Jackson. Could've had Garrett Wilson, or could have traded back and accumulated more picks (the 11th pick was traded for 16, 98, and 120).

could've had Jordan Davis or even Kyle Hamilton lol

[clyde21]

this FO just does a bunch of weird stuff man, giving 30m a year to WR that wasn't gonna get anywhere near 100 catches in a season is just tip of the iceberg.

giving your QB $55m a pop but refusing to invest in an OL that can protect him.

drafting kickers and punters high.

refusing to update the special teams for several years until you had no choice.

drafting bad early but well later int eh draft.

lol...just a super weird team.